Player Discussion Jacob Trouba

[80shockeywasbuns]

I don't try to "clown" anyone. I stand by you being a neophyte in regards to being a NHL coach. I am as well. Nobody including NHL coaches are infallible but I doubt you or I could last 30 minutes coaching a NHL practice before the players are laughing wondering what is going on.

I actually called for Laf to play RW for years. Go look it up.

I would not commit to Laf playing any line. If he played well I would want him to play more. If he played poorly I would want him to play less. Ditto Kaako. Ditto almost every player including Trouba. Laf played poorly last season. Laf has played well this season. It is not brain surgery.

When have I ever asserted that I am an NHL coach…

 

[haohmaru]

i have no axe to grind, i like Trouba as a person and i think he's a good leader, but his play on the ice is absolutely not worth his current contract. and then we got people in here saying they'd rather have him than Dougie Hamilton.

Who said that?

He is not good at defense, no. I’ve been saying this for years now and there’s no measurement that proves otherwise.

He has paired with K’Andre Miller to form a tandem that entered Monday with the best goals-for percentage in the NHL (13 for, 5 against, 72.2) among the 20 duos with at least 250 minutes at five-on-five.

"not good at defense, no"

 

[zlev]

To get a bit snarky. Hamilton had 74 points last year (which by far is his highest) but his 16 points in 20 games prorates to 65 this year (a bit of a downgrade but still good but probably not going to happen either (the 65 that is) because the Devils have just put him on injured reserve) because he's just come out of surgery for a pectoral (?) problem. His -8 (I know everyone hates +/- but) seemingly reflects the general malaise so far of his hungover (?) team coming off a (big success) second round exit last year. That said I do think +/- can be a red flag like for example when in last year's playoffs a player is a -11 in 12 playoff games like Hamilton was. When you have a - near the number of games you've played something is f***ed up with you and/or your team.

yeah, the "something that's f***ed up" is that their goalies absolutely blow. our goalies are awesome and the Devils have maybe the worst goaltending tandem in the league. Trouba is dead even at 180-180 in scoring chances at 5 on 5. Hamilton is 248 for, 135 against. it's not even close.

 

[zlev]

Who said that?



He has paired with K’Andre Miller to form a tandem that entered Monday with the best goals-for percentage in the NHL (13 for, 5 against, 72.2) among the 20 duos with at least 250 minutes at five-on-five.

"not good at defense, no"

yeah and their xGF% is dead even at 50%. all this shows is that goalies stand on their head when they're on the ice.

 

[haohmaru]

yeah and their xGF% is dead even at 50%. all this shows is that goalies stand on their head when they're on the ice.

They’re always on the ice against the other teams first lines and when we have the lead late. You’re not putting context into your analysis. Trouba starts in his own end 55+% of the time against the other team’s best players. Of course his fancy stats are going to take a hit.

 

[zlev]

They’re always on the ice against the other teams first lines and when we have the lead late. You’re not putting context into your analysis. Trouba starts in his own end 55+% of the time against the other team’s best players. Of course his fancy stats are going to take a hit.

fancy stats? there's nothing fancy about "scoring chances". zone starts dont mean a damn thing, especially when we're the best faceoff team in the league.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Imagine being one of the top defensive teams in the NHL without our #1 D-man and goalie for half the games and also our defenseman that gets the toughest matchups being a bottom pairing defenseman. Voodoo I tell you.

 

[haohmaru]

fancy stats? there's nothing fancy about "scoring chances". zone starts dont mean a damn thing, especially when we're the best faceoff team in the league.

Now zone starts don't mean a thing? I'll move on from this pointless discussion.

 

[zlev]

Imagine being one of the top defensive teams in the NHL without our #1 D-man and goalie for half the games and also our defenseman that gets the toughest matchups being a bottom pairing defense. Voodoo I tell you.

did you see the Buffalo game? that pairing got murdered. they got murdered in Pittsburgh too but Quick saved their asses.

 

[zlev]

Now zone starts don't mean a thing? I'll move on from this pointless discussion.

pointless discussion about a pointless stat. what does a zone start mean when faceoffs are largely 50/50? nothing.

 

[nyr2k2]

pointless discussion about a pointless stat. what does a zone start mean when faceoffs are largely 50/50? nothing.

I mean if I start in the defensive zone 20 times and you start there 5 times, even if we're a good face-off team I'm going to find myself starting on my heels a lot more often than you are. I don't see how it's pointless at all.

 

[zlev]

I mean if I start in the defensive zone 20 times and you start there 5 times, even if we're a good face-off team I'm going to find myself starting on my heels a lot more often than you are. I don't see how it's pointless at all.

sure, but Trouba isn't deployed like that. he's only 55/45.

 

[nyr2k2]

sure, but Trouba isn't deployed like that. he's only 55/45.

I'm not a part of this argument about Trouba and charts or whatever. I just think it's silly to claim zone starts is a pointless stat. It adds context like a lot of other stats, even if you want to argue it doesn't make a huge differece when comparing players.

 

[zlev]

I'm not a part of this argument about Trouba and charts or whatever. I just think it's silly to claim zone starts is a pointless stat. It adds context like a lot of other stats, even if you want to argue it doesn't make a huge differece when comparing players.

i still disagree. faceoffs are a coinflip, so half of your zone starts mean nothing. not to mention most changes come on the fly. it's a much smaller percentage of the game than people realize.

 

[nyr2k2]

I learned that this place was a much more enjoyable experience when I didn't have to have an opinion on everything or post in every thread. Here, I have wandered into a discussion I have no stake in, so I'll be Abe Simpson and see myself right back out.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I think the only thread zlev ever posted in is this one.

 

[zlev]

we're just discussing hockey, what's wrong with that?

 

[Harbour Dog]

I learned that this place was a much more enjoyable experience when I didn't have to have an opinion on everything or post in every thread. Here, I have wandered into a discussion I have no stake in, so I'll be Abe Simpson and see myself right back out.

Preach.

 

[Larrybiv]

No not Freddie

Duh, I knew that. Just trying to be funny. aaaah, those pathetic Shero days.

Almost had me, until that last sentence.

$8 million per is bad. Full stop.

6 would have been fine, 7 somewhat acceptable. Hell, he helps get us a cup......he could have 10!

 

[romba]

Even when you win a defensive draw, you limit the damage sure, but now you need to lug it up ice against a set structure. How often does the puck come back after a NZ turnover or a lost board battle on a dump in. It’s hard to generate offense needing to go from deep in your d zone. Zone starts matter, and your level of opposition matters too.

 

[haohmaru]

pointless discussion about a pointless stat. what does a zone start mean when faceoffs are largely 50/50? nothing.

Zone Starts (ZS) – the ratio of offensive zone faceoffs to defensive zone faceoffs for a player at even strength. Usually expressed as a percentage. A rule of thumb is each extra zone start is worth about (+/-) 0.3 corsi. For example, if a player sees 300 more offensive zone faceoffs than defensive zone faceoffs over a season, his corsi will be inflated by approximately (300 X 0.3) +90 net corsi.

Stop it.

 

[zlev]

Zone Starts (ZS) – the ratio of offensive zone faceoffs to defensive zone faceoffs for a player at even strength. Usually expressed as a percentage. A rule of thumb is each extra zone start is worth about (+/-) 0.3 corsi. For example, if a player sees 300 more offensive zone faceoffs than defensive zone faceoffs over a season, his corsi will be inflated by approximately (300 X 0.3) +90 net corsi.

Stop it.

do you actually know what this says? a swing of 90 corsi is incredibly small over a full season.

here, educate yourself: How much do zone starts matter part II: A lot on their own, not that much in aggregate

"After all, even with our simplistic but blunt approach here, we see that very few players require significant adjustments to their numbers due to their zone starts. While it’s true that more accurate numbers are always better, it’s certainly becoming clearer that outside of a handful of players the effect of zone starts on possession aren’t as great as we may have thought, and may actually be negligible for a large portion of the league."

a large portion of the league in which Trouba is included, as his zone starts are only 45/55. last year they were even closer to dead even. it's a near meaningless stat.

 

[zlev]

Do YOU know what this says? 300 zone starts in an 82 game season is a little over 3 PER GAME. I think Trouba averages a whole lot more than that.

i posted what trouba averages. 45% of his shifts start in the offensive zone. last year it was 46%, the effect of that on his analytics is extremely negligible. read what i linked for a better understanding. only one player over a 5 year sample had his CF increase by more than 2% when zone starts were considered.

 

[haohmaru]

i posted what trouba averages. 45% of his shifts start in the offensive zone. last year it was 46%, the effect of that on his analytics is extremely negligible. read what i linked for a better understanding. only one player over a 5 year sample had his CF increase by more than 2% when zone starts were considered.

There's more to consider here and I've pointed that out multiple times - zone starts, QoC, defending a lead, etc...Trouba is NOT worse than Hamilton defensively. Hamilton starts 60+% in the Offensive zone. Their respective roles on their teams are not comparable.

(Edit) - according to hockey reference, Trouba's DZs is actually a whopping 65.5% this year

 

[mas0764]

Trouba starts in his own end 55+% of the time against the other team’s best players. Of course his fancy stats are going to take a hit.

Ryan Lindgren does the same and beats the pants off of Trouba in actual defensive performance.