Speculation: Jackets open for business, 4th overall available for right deal

[Viqsi]

maybe 4th overall+ for brady tkachuk.

Huh. I stand corrected.

 

[dgibb10]

Or think Patrick, Kaako, Yakupov, Turcotte, Kotkaniemi, Puljujari... Top 5 picks are valuable of course, but they're not the guaranteed hit that HF makes them out to be.

They aren't a guaranteed hit.

That's not what makes them valuable.

you get 3 years at 900k and then 4 years of dirt cheap RFA control. That is what makes the picks so immensely valuable.

Elias Pettersson is a superstar. He also costs 11.6 million dollars a year

A 5 mill player who you only have to pay 1 mill too provides just as much surplus value as a 12 mill player making 8 mill

 

[Crede777]

Or think Patrick, Kaako, Yakupov, Turcotte, Kotkaniemi, Puljujari... Top 5 picks are valuable of course, but they're not the guaranteed hit that HF makes them out to be.

It's a trade-off. You exchange risk (that the player won't develop into what they're initially projected to be) for cost and control (developed players cost more and you have fewer years of control).

This is also why high 1st round picks are rarely traded away. Turns out teams would rather keep the sure thing player and eat the cost so they don't offer what it would cost to acquire the pick.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

I think this one went over you lol.


Yeah, and 2 of the other 3.

Yes, because your sarcasm(?) was so apparent there that I wasn’t the only one questioning it.

 

[StreetHawk]

Can't imagine what they'd be looking for, or what would suffice for the 4th overall.

On one hand, this draft isn't really that great and 2/3-12 has been seen as pretty interchangeable. But yet there's a lot of value in being able to pick in that range and get the guy you like the most.

I'm not sure I'd part with a young surefire thing for a pick in that range that's already contributing at the NHL level like I'd imagine the Jackets will want. But then again, i have no idea what they need.

What is their direction? They had expected better than the past 2 seasons where they were like 2nd and 4th worst overall. Their big money signings are not exactly excelling. Where does that leave them?

Waddell has no loyalty to any player on the roster. But, I don't think see him buying a Now player given the state of the roster.

 

[SEALBound]

They need to keep 4OV. Unless it's 5OV and another 1st or something. Fantilli is the piece to build around. By the time the new core is good, Johnny Hockey and Werenski will be old. Sell good players like Provorov and Laine. Get picks and prospect that fit the Fantilli age bracket.

"Compete now" shouldn't be in their future outlook.

 

[Crede777]

What is their direction? They had expected better than the past 2 seasons where they were like 2nd and 4th worst overall. Their big money signings are not exactly excelling. Where does that leave them?

Waddell has no loyalty to any player on the roster. But, I don't think see him buying a Now player given the state of the roster.

I think the prevailing sentiment is that developing the quality young players they already have (Fantilli, Jiricek, Johnson, Sillinger, Mateychuk, Chinakhov, Voronkov, Marchenko, this 4th overall) may go better if the team is competitive. Basically, surrounding the young guys with quality vets and coaching on a competitive team is better than continuing to be bad and draft high.

 

[BleedBlue14]

What is their direction? They had expected better than the past 2 seasons where they were like 2nd and 4th worst overall. Their big money signings are not exactly excelling. Where does that leave them?

Waddell has no loyalty to any player on the roster. But, I don't think see him buying a Now player given the state of the roster.

That’s the hard part. If I had to guess we’ll see them move Laine fairly easily this offseason. Probably get a minimal return, but someone will take a chance on the talent given the shortened term. That frees up a spot in their top 6 and a lot of cap.

If I were them I’d use that cap on Lindholm hoping it could get Geaudreau going.

Their defense has some pretty high end pieces already in Werenski and Jiricek. So that foundation is there.

Goaltending needs addressed for sure, but I don’t think they’ll try and find a permanent solution there. They also have a loaded prospect pool currently.

I’d imagine the only way theyf be open to moving it would be for an immediate top 6 player. The range of that is probably up for debate.

Ultimately I'm not sure they’ll find something out there that’ll be worth it to them. But I also wouldn’t really want to be the team that trades a surefire productive top 6 piece right now that has cost control and have the main return being the 4th overall in this draft. Not many teams tearing it down right now that’ll move a guy like that for a pick, especially in a weaker 3-5 than normal.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think the prevailing sentiment is that developing the quality young players they already have (Fantilli, Jiricek, Johnson, Sillinger, Mateychuk, Chinakhov, Voronkov, Marchenko, this 4th overall) may go better if the team is competitive. Basically, surrounding the young guys with quality vets and coaching on a competitive team is better than continuing to be bad and draft high.

You are just not going to get someone under contract for a long time as those kinds of players teams like to hold onto. Really, maybe you get 3 years under contract, plus given NTC, sadly for Columbus, they'd be one of the top 3-5 US based teams on that list for most players.

 

[Albatros]

They need to keep 4OV. Unless it's 5OV and another 1st or something. Fantilli is the piece to build around. By the time the new core is good, Johnny Hockey and Werenski will be old. Sell good players like Provorov and Laine. Get picks and prospect that fit the Fantilli age bracket.

"Compete now" shouldn't be in their future outlook.

If they don't clearly fancy anyone in that range then it makes a lot of sense to trade the 4th, it looks like a deep draft and there'll be someone else wanting that pick seriously enough for a decent return. They're currently one of the youngest teams in the league so they need to be competitive within the next four years or so. It's too late for their core to depend on future picks.

 

[TheNewEra]

If demidov is there I don't see how the jackets move the pick

If they do then Seattle makes a lot of sense

4 for 8+

 

[SEALBound]

If they don't clearly fancy anyone in that range then it makes a lot of sense to trade the 4th, it looks like a deep draft and there'll be someone else wanting that pick seriously enough for a decent return. They're currently one of the youngest teams in the league so they need to be competitive within the next four years or so. It's too late for their core to depend on future picks.

You're getting one of:

Demidov, Levshunov, or Lindstrom at 4OV though. They are as good as any 4OV we've seen drafted lately. I'd really have to see what trade they could make that puts them in a better situation moving forward. As I said, maybe moving back a bit to gain extra picks, sure. But that move is still very much in the "stock up now, compete later" mold I stated.

 

[Crede777]

You are just not going to get someone under contract for a long time as those kinds of players teams like to hold onto. Really, maybe you get 3 years under contract, plus given NTC, sadly for Columbus, they'd be one of the top 3-5 US based teams on that list for most players.

And I predict that the 4th OA pick won't actually be traded.

 

[57special]

Time for everyone to vastly underrate the value of a top 4 pick.

7 years of cheap control.

Think superstar. Think your 1C, your superstar winger, or your best dman. with term. Think Elias Pettersson, Brady Tkachuk,

Or, think a proven STUD with bargain control. think Wyatt Johnson, Matthew Boldy

You're dreaming, and totally ignoring the failure rate on top prospects. In this draft in particular, with one sure thing and a bunch of maybes upon which there is no consensus, getting a Tkachuk, or even a Boldy/Byfield is simply not going to happen.

In short, some people overestimate the value of a #4(not top 4)pick.

 

[toomuchsauce]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803794330991096132

lol. lol lmao. lol. lmao.

 

[Captain Mountain]

You're dreaming, and totally ignoring the failure rate on top prospects. In this draft in particular, with one sure thing and a bunch of maybes upon which there is no consensus, getting a Tkachuk, or even a Boldy/Byfield is simply not going to happen.

In short, some people overestimate the value of a #4(not top 4)pick.

That's fine, but you're also not getting a top-4 pick straight up for less than that. Just because there's a lack of consensus after Celebrini, doesn't mean that the top 10ish group isn't highly regarded compared to other drafts. It just means that there isn't much reason for, say, Utah or Ottawa to add a ton in a trade to go from 6th/7th to 4th.

 

[BHD]

They aren't at the point where "the right deal" puts them over the top. Maybe it brings them closer to the pack, but that is shortsighted IMO. They should draft high - again - and then revisit this type of trade next summer.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Just for fun, and assuming Montreal views Demidov, Levshunov and Lindstrom as DEFINITELY better (and better fits) than anybody they could draft at pick number 5 :

to Columbus Blue Jackets
5th overall pick
Samuel Montembeault (3y @ $3.15m)
Jordan Harris (1y @ $1.4m RFA)
( retain $1.62m on Merzlikins )
TOTAL CAP = $6.17m (+ Jiricek to AHL, remove Jiricek cap from roster)
CAP CHANGE = open $0.1484m in cap

to Montreal Canadiens
4th overall pick
Elvis Merzlikins (30% retained) (3y @ $3.78m)
maybe Columbus adds like a 4th or 5th or 6th rounder too ? no ?
TOTAL CAP = $3.78m (+ Struble to NHL, add Struble cap to roster)
CAP CHANGE = add $0.0975m in cap


Columbus will trade Montembeault between now and next summer so that Greaves has an NHL spot and doesn't need to be waived or have 3 goalies on roster. Perhaps they trade him right away to Detroit for Husso (with or without retention) and a pick.

MONTREAL - Merzlikins + Primeau
COLUMBUS - Montembeault + Tarasov ( + Greaves callup )

or

MONTREAL - Merzlikins + Primeau
COLUMBUS - Tarasov + Husso ( + Greaves callup )
DETROIT - Montembeault + Lyon ( + Cossa callup )

I think the assumption is pretty flimsy, but its also pretty far from being a lock (or even consensus) that all of Demidov, Levshunov and Lindstrom will be gone at 5 any ways.

Montreal's trying to at least be somewhat competitive right now. Merzlikins has been awful for a while and Montembault has been one of maybe two or three reasons Montreal hasn't been worse than Columbus the last 2 seasons.

 

[BHFAN92]

#4 overall and Patrick Laine to Blackhawks for #18, #34, #50 2025 Maple Leafs 1st rd pick and Phillip Kurashev

 

[Go Wings]

Translation: We are keeping the pick.

 

[ViD]

4th + Laine for Draisaitl + 31st/32nd.

Would 100% do it, if Drai is extended even if it’s around $13-14m.

We need a game changer, enough of blue chip prospects

If demidov is there I don't see how the jackets move the pick

If they do then Seattle makes a lot of sense

4 for 8+

So far everything points to CBJ either not believing he will be there at 4 or not as interested in him

 

[Warh1ppy]

So if we're following the rumours

Picks 4, 7, 10, 11 and 14 are available now. With their bring talk about pick 3(?) being potentially available for a trade back option.

Crazy....

 

[Albatros]

You're getting one of:

Demidov, Levshunov, or Lindstrom at 4OV though. They are as good as any 4OV we've seen drafted lately. I'd really have to see what trade they could make that puts them in a better situation moving forward. As I said, maybe moving back a bit to gain extra picks, sure. But that move is still very much in the "stock up now, compete later" mold I stated.

Good players eventually no doubt, but it's about the core as a whole and it doesn't make sense for a young team with some talent to start rebuilding again instead of improving what they have. Otherwise they'd only have Fantilli and prospects.

 

[absolute garbage]

4th + Laine for Brady Tkachuk is the only kind of deal that makes sense for Columbus IMO.

Not sure if that makes sense for Ottawa though. Would be a soft reset for them, using 4th and 7th picks to restock (Lindstrom? Sennecke?) and hopefully replace Tkachuk in couple of years. I could see it since whatever they are doing currently is clearly not working.

 

[Voight]