Player Discussion Jack Campbell

[nexttothemoon]

I think it's valid to say that no stats are "perfect"... but then again if you treat the stats as having "fuzzy input"... then treat the output as "fuzzy" as well.

Don't get too hung up on the exact ranks... ie the #4 guy looks like he's better than the #7 guy... and sure maybe he's not because there's obviously variance in the input/output and factors that effect stats... teammates/opposition etc.

If you look at the stats in generalized "bins" though... say take the top 10 guys vs the bottom 10 guys... it's easier to say that in general... the bottom guys have likely been crappier than the top guys.

IE... I'd take Oettinger/Saros/Hellebuyck over Campbell/Quick/Demko this year... and that's backed up by eyeball tests as well if you watch them play.

I don't get hung up on exact output because I know the correlations are far from perfect (too many factors involved for any one stat to be gospel)... neither is the eyeball test or anything else for that matter which is why pro/amateur scouts and GM's screw up so often and why people on forums can often be right about players while "pros and experts" screw up... the draft is another great example of that.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I agree with this to some extent, though it seams like there is a very high almost 100% probability to have an “expected” 4 GA when Campbell is in net.

Haha true.

 

[oXo Cube]

I think it's safe to say he has played significantly worse than even his biggest detractors had feared he might going into the season.

Maybe the most unmovable contract in the NHL right now?

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I think it's valid to say that no stats are "perfect"... but then again if you treat the stats as having "fuzzy input"... then treat the output as "fuzzy" as well.

Don't get too hung up on the exact ranks... ie the #4 guy looks like he's better than the #7 guy... and sure maybe he's not because there's obviously variance in the input/output and factors that effect stats... teammates/opposition etc.

If you look at the stats in generalized "bins" though... say take the top 10 guys vs the bottom 10 guys... it's easier to say that in general... the bottom guys have likely been crappier than the top guys.

IE... I'd take Oettinger/Saros/Hellebuyck over Campbell/Quick/Demko this year... and that's backed up by eyeball tests as well if you watch them play.

I don't get hung up on exact output because I know the correlations are far from perfect (too many factors involved for any one stat to be gospel)... neither is the eyeball test or anything else for that matter which is why pro/amateur scouts and GM's screw up so often and why people on forums can often be right about players while "pros and experts" screw up... the draft is another great example of that.

Dont need expected stats. Real stats quantifiable and not subjective, combined with a qualified eye test tells you pretty much what you need to know about any player.

 

[FunkyChicken]

Waivers and pray.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Now that “expected” this and “expected” that are the Twitterlytics Stat du Jour, actual real stats and performance have taken a back seat amongst the “I only know the game through Excel” community.

“Expected” is as you say a very subjective stat and a laughable one at that.

Expected goals have a lot of blind spots, the biggest being the lack of inclusion of pre shot puck movement (especially cross ice passes, slot passes, and dekes) but for the specific case of Jack Campbell the eye test and traditional stats both also support that he's just as garbage as the advanced stats say.

 

[Oilhawks]

is there a way we can delete this contract?

im in the camp of buying this guy out

 

[Spawn]

Now that “expected” this and “expected” that are the Twitterlytics Stat du Jour, actual real stats and performance have taken a back seat amongst the “I only know the game through Excel” community.

“Expected” is as you say a very subjective stat and a laughable one at that.

Problem is that Campbells real stats and performance are also terrible.

 

[Zguy370]

So is he on Waivers yet!

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Problem is that Campbells real stats and performance are also terrible.

I know, that’s my point. You don’t need advanced expected stats to tell you the sky is blue.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

Tough to have confidence in our trainwreck of a goaltending situation.

Plays good for awhile then goes right back into the tank.

Skinner is not the answer either.

 

[OilerTyler]

Tough to have confidence in our trainwreck of a goaltending situation.

Plays good for awhile then goes right back into the tank.

Skinner is not the answer either.

At least Skinner is a rookie and should improve on this season.

I'm not sure our window is wide enough to risk another year on Campbell trying to get his game together. I'd seriously look into buying him out in the off-season assuming no one is going to take his contract from us. The buyout would give us $3.45 and $3.85 million in cap space the next two seasons which would be more than enough to replace him. The buyout penalty of $1.55 million from 2028 to 2031 doesn't seem so bad when you realize our window will be closed by then.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

At least Skinner is a rookie and should improve on this season.

I'm not sure our window is wide enough to risk another year on Campbell trying to get his game together. I'd seriously look into buying him out in the off-season assuming no one is going to take his contract from us. The buyout would give us $3.45 and $3.85 million in cap space the next two seasons which would be more than enough to replace him. The buyout penalty of $1.55 million from 2028 to 2031 doesn't seem so bad when you realize our window will be closed by then.

We are in a win now mode, that's what I meant by "he's not the answer".
He's a prospect but riding a prospect when they're really not ready has a tendency to ruin them.

 

[Messier11]

Just trade him, Pulju, Yamo, and whatever pick you need to Anaheim for Gibson. Anaheim to retain enough to normalize to $5M/yr for Gibson.

Holland is asleep at the wheel.

 

[Stoneman89]

We can only hope he comes around. Burying his cap will kill us, and having a useless 5 million dollar backup will be just as bad. I just can't see anyone taking on a contract like his with 4 full years left, and if they do, they'll demand a kings ransom.

 

[yukoner88]

We are in a win now mode, that's what I meant by "he's not the answer".
He's a prospect but riding a prospect when they're really not ready has a tendency to ruin them.

Get skinner a 1a/b goalie who can make 30-35 quality starts and take over Incase of injury and Skinner would be a fine #1.

Just don't ride him like he's the second coming of Grant Fuhr.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

I think it's safe to say he has played significantly worse than even his biggest detractors had feared he might going into the season.

Maybe the most unmovable contract in the NHL right now?

It hasn't kicked in yet but Huberdeau's wins that giant teddy bear from the top row.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Don't even finish the game Campbell. Just announce your retirement between the 2nd/3rd period.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Let's wait for his apologists to come in this thread after another pathetic performance.

 

[LTIR]

Don't think Woody will dare to start Campbell in a home game anytime soon

 

[La Bamba]

can’t be said enough times, this guy is by FAR the worst goaltender I’ve ever witnessed

 

[LevelingSolo]

I like most of Kens recent moves but I have no idea what he was thinking giving this guy 5 x 5, it was so clear that minus that one stretch in Toronto he was a fraud

 

[McDrai]

can’t be said enough times, this guy is by FAR the worst goaltender I’ve ever witnessed

He’s on par with Conklin for me which is pretty bad to say the least

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Holy shit he's so f***ing bad.

 

[TGOSnipes99]

Everytime I open my score app I expect that six to be a seven with Campbell