Tribute Jack Campbell Discussion Part 2

[DraftSchmaft]

I guess one issue I see with Campbell is he's either elite in an unsustainable way, or plays mediocre. There's no consistent flow of .92

Playoffs he comes out hot, almost .97 in first 4 games. Follows up with .89 for the final 3.

This season is similar, but worse, because playoff bad wasn't as bad as it is right now. His current .921 is a bit of a lie because you can't use it to describe his play this season. Someone would need to explain to a stat watcher that it was unsustainable play combined with becoming Toskala that made it a .921.

That is great if he can maintain it the entire series.

It doesn't help when he puts up below a .900 across the last three games and loses all of them, especially when the goalie on the other side is putting up a .940 with much more difficult work to do.

Andersen was the same way in a few of the series too. Played well enough for most of the series, but it doesn't help when he puts up an .850 in Game 7, or the goalie on the other end outplays him even when he plays well.

And in the recent series, we are not even asking for our goalie to steal the games... We are literally asking him to keep us in the games when the other team gets a few opportunistic chances, most of which are not even difficult stops, and we are not getting those saves. It is just like the game yesterday; a few of those goals were really soft, and even the ones that were decent shots, they were very stoppable pucks that you need out of your goalie if you want to win the Cup. The other team is getting those stops; we are not.

Double jinx!

If two people say it at the same time, increases odds it's true. I'll put a third stamp on this. I agree 100%

 

[Confucius]

Jack is just resting up for the playoffs, regular season means diddly.

 

[thusk]

Campbell asking for $6m does not mean he was worth it. Luckily the Leafs did not like that number. Either way how much Soup is worth is going to come down to how he performs in the playoffs (see Philip Daneault). Thinking he should have taken whatever the Leafs' highest offer was.

If ulmark or peterson sign st 5 M, Mrazek at 3.8M... it will be minimum 5 or 6M for Campbell and you will not find any better goalie above 5M, its the goalie market right now.

 

[Gallagbi]

If ulmark or peterson sign st 5 M, Mrazek at 3.8M... it will be minimum 5 or 6M for Campbell and you will not find any better goalie above 5M, its the goalie market right now.

There's still a lot to find out about Campbell before we can say his worth.

 

[Stephen]

There's still a lot to find out about Campbell before we can say his worth.

Either way, we're getting bigger and bigger book on Campbell.

-Does he have high end ability and can carry the mail for extended periods of time? Yep.
-Does he have the ability to rebound from individual poor games with very strong starts? Yep.
-Can he pull out of prolonged struggles and provide sustained high end play? To Be Determined.
-Can he run with the ball as a starter for periods of time? Yep.
-Can he platoon and provide strong goaltending with equal share of the net? Yes, but more as a challenger, not as an incumbent.

Not too much runway left with half a season and a possible playoff run before you need too take out the cheque book but I think the way he's struggled I'd ballpark his value to me at around $4.25 million and declining, with maybe a 2 year term attached to it due to uncertainty, 3 if you want to roll the dice.

 

[Ciao]

I could be wrong but I think this was Dan Milstein that did that, Mikheyev's agent.

You're quite right and I'm wrong. My memory failed me.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If ulmark or peterson sign st 5 M, Mrazek at 3.8M... it will be minimum 5 or 6M for Campbell and you will not find any better goalie above 5M, its the goalie market right now.

Then goodbye Campbell.

Ask how Seattle likes Grubauer's contract right now, and Grubauer had a much larger sample size than Campbell.

Doesn't seem like the Leafs are going to regret letting Hyman go either.

 

[Buds17]

Then goodbye Campbell.

Ask how Seattle likes Grubauer's contract right now, and Grubauer had a much larger sample size than Campbell.

Doesn't seem like the Leafs are going to regret letting Hyman go either.

What did Grubauer's exit mean for Colorado though? They had to pay a fair price in trade for a (still) pending UFA in Kuemper. I can't envision the Leafs going into next season with a Mrazek-Woll goalie combo right now.

There was always going to be a limit on what the Leafs should have offered to Hyman considering what the team has on its books at forward. Campbell currently also seems to be much more important to the goalie situation than Hyman was relative to his fellow forwards here.

Campbell certainly won't be the only option available to the Leafs. We'll eventually discover whether or not he is the team's best option.

 

[Stephen]

What did Grubauer's exit mean for Colorado though? They had to pay a fair price in trade for a (still) pending UFA in Kuemper. I can't envision the Leafs going into next season with a Mrazek-Woll goalie combo right now.

There was always going to be a limit on what the Leafs should have offered to Hyman considering what the team has on its books at forward. Campbell currently also seems to be much more important to the goalie situation than Hyman was relative to his fellow forwards here.

Campbell certainly won't be the only option available to the Leafs. We'll eventually discover whether or not he is the team's best option.

I suppose life after Campbell could involve pursuing Marc-Andre Fleury for a short term fix, or other platoon options like Joonas Korpisalo. Minnesota will be facing a cap crunch with their penalties to Suter and Parise, so maybe Talbot or Kahkonen come loose, St. Louis has a goalie controversy with Binnington and Husso, not sure how much faith Philadelphia has in Carter Hart, Washington seems to be souring on Samsonov/Vanecek so maybe there's a pursuit there. The Islanders have the Sorokin/Varlamov partnership to resolve.

 

[therealkoho]

He’s getting overworked. Need Mrazek to step up and earn his paycheck

iunno when the was playing a lot he was playing well, his numbers fell off when he way too much time between starts

 

[thusk]

Then goodbye Campbell.

Ask how Seattle likes Grubauer's contract right now, and Grubauer had a much larger sample size than Campbell.

Doesn't seem like the Leafs are going to regret letting Hyman go either.

Good luck to find a starting goalie above 5M

Who are starting goalie available this summer?

38 years old fleury...
Kuemper who will cost 5M+
Campbell

By transaction...
Varlamov at 5M
Quick at 5.8M
Take a guest with Driedger at 3.5M

Resign campbell will probably be the best option toronto will have.

 

[Buds17]

I suppose life after Campbell could involve pursuing Marc-Andre Fleury for a short term fix, or other platoon options like Joonas Korpisalo. Minnesota will be facing a cap crunch with their penalties to Suter and Parise, so maybe Talbot or Kahkonen come loose, St. Louis has a goalie controversy with Binnington and Husso, not sure how much faith Philadelphia has in Carter Hart, Washington seems to be souring on Samsonov/Vanecek so maybe there's a pursuit there. The Islanders have the Sorokin/Varlamov partnership to resolve.

Nice work! Plenty of options...of varying quality.

 

[McSnypsky]

Good luck to find a starting goalie above 5M

Who are starting goalie available this summer?

38 years old fleury...
Kuemper who will cost 5M+
Campbell

By transaction...
Varlamov at 5M
Quick at 5.8M
Take a guest with Driedger at 3.5M

Resign Campbell will probably be the best option toronto will have.

The pressure is really on now for him as he's the guy.. last year they still had Freddie. I'd say let it ride if he prices himself out of the market so be it you still have Mrazek signed.
That goal he let in by Gallagher last playoff still bothers me; do we have a goalie that can get it done...?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Good luck to find a starting goalie above 5M

Who are starting goalie available this summer?

38 years old fleury...
Kuemper who will cost 5M+
Campbell

By transaction...
Varlamov at 5M
Quick at 5.8M
Take a guest with Driedger at 3.5M

Resign campbell will probably be the best option toronto will have.

Don't you mean below 5 mill?

Fleury, Kuemper, Campbell, Holtby, and maybe Husso in UFA.

Then let's take a look at who needs a starting goalie or 1A: Arizona, Chicago, Edmonton, Toronto, Colorado. Maybe Dallas, but they have Oettinger who they probably want as starter and may give Khudobin another chance as their backup.

Arizona is Arizona... No self-respecting, non-desperate player is going to choose to go there right now; they will pretty much just have to settle for guys who need second chances, like Koskinen and Korpisalo, or need a chance as a starter, like Husso.

Edmonton can't afford a high price goalie any more than we can, and I think most goalies would rather play for us than for them.

Chicago is still a ways away from competing, but I guess they can throw money at a goalie.

Colorado is the best bet for a starter, but while they have a lot of cap, they are also a team that was not willing to give Grubauer a lofty contract either because they have some major raises coming up.

Then there is us.

A lot of the guys who have received 5+ mill in UFA have a lot more extensive resumes than Campbell, or in the case of Ullmark, were 2.5 years younger than Campbell when he signed. And even then, most of them received exactly 5 mill. A lot of Campbell's comparables received less than 5 mill, and did not get a ton of term.

Campbell has to effectively count on a team overpaying him like Seattle did Grubauer and be comfortable with the fact that the team won't be very good more than likely. Or he can accept what he is worth with us, which is a contract that is slightly better than Mrazek's, and continue being a 1A in a place that values him and will be competitive the entire time he is here. He can still realistically expect 15 mill from his next contract from us, and may even get as high as 18 mill. He just won't get some ludicrous 25+ mill contract that he has not come anywhere close to earning.

 

[thusk]

Goalie is the most important position in hockey. The reason why toronto that good defensivly last 2 season is jack Campbell. Just look at Edmonton right now how thing work without any #1 goalie...

so from what you said, youre solution for campbell contract is becoming the next edmonton oilers??? Youre solution to win playoff serie, its downgrading yourself at the position you need the most.

Holtby is not even more a #1 goalie

Ulmark never prove he was a #1, Campbell did since hes in Toronto... just like that

 

[Beaumaris]

Jack is just resting up for the playoffs, regular season means diddly.

I’ve been listening to this crap for 50 years now.

 

[Confucius]

I’ve been listening to this crap for 50 years now.

yeah i know it took me even longer to realize the truth. Your day will come my man.

 

[wc17]

Goalie is the most important position in hockey. The reason why toronto that good defensivly last 2 season is jack Campbell. Just look at Edmonton right now how thing work without any #1 goalie...

so from what you said, youre solution for campbell contract is becoming the next edmonton oilers??? Youre solution to win playoff serie, its downgrading yourself at the position you need the most.

Holtby is not even more a #1 goalie

Ulmark never prove he was a #1, Campbell did since hes in Toronto... just like that

I love me some Soup but when exactly did he prove he was a #1? He’s yet to play anywhere near a #1 workload and the one time he’s come close, this year, he’s sputtered a bit.

Right now, at this very moment, Ullmark is a perfect comparable. Their numbers are very similar.

If Soup continues at, around .915-.920 sv% then he gets his $5 mil….if not, who knows what the Leafs end up doing? But assuming a goalie that’s never played more than 30 games in a season is now magically a #1 and deserves $6 mil a season is when teams get in trouble.

show me you can bust out of this slump, show me you can do it in the playoffs, take your money….OR sign a 4x$4.25 mil deal now and everyone’s happy.

 

[Confucius]

I love me some Soup but when exactly did he prove he was a #1? He’s yet to play anywhere near a #1 workload and the one time he’s come close, this year, he’s sputtered a bit.

Right now, at this very moment, Ullmark is a perfect comparable. Their numbers are very similar.

If Soup continues at, around .915-.920 sv% then he gets his $5 mil….if not, who knows what the Leafs end up doing? But assuming a goalie that’s never played more than 30 games in a season is now magically a #1 and deserves $6 mil a season is when teams get in trouble.

show me you can bust out of this slump, show me you can do it in the playoffs, take your money….OR sign a 4x$4.25 mil deal now and everyone’s happy.

I'd think Soup would jump at that, I bet we don't offer that today. Maybe by the summer.

 

[Gallagbi]

I’ve been listening to this crap for 50 years now.

Have we had a better regular season through the last 50 years than we have so far this year?

 

[Menzinger]

I still don't think this contract will be particularly difficult to get done.

The team likes the player, player likes the team. What remains to be seen is with the rest of the season and playoffs how he performs to set the range for comparables.

 

[Gallagbi]

I still don't think this contract will be particularly difficult to get done.

The team likes the player, player likes the team. What remains to be seen is with the rest of the season and playoffs how he performs to set the range for comparables.

I think the question is whether he's the guy, not whether we can afford a deal

 

[wc17]

I'd think Soup would jump at that, I bet we don't offer that today. Maybe by the summer.

Really? I would’ve guessed 4x4 would’ve been an initial offer from the Leafs considering the Mrazek deal. And I would’ve been comfortable with that.

If the lack of a contract is getting in his head at all then maybe it’s worth it to jump back into negotiations but his agent wouldn’t want that now while he’s at a low point in his season.

 

[Menzinger]

I think the question is whether he's the guy, not whether we can afford a deal

Yep.

Stability, especially mentally during high pressure situations is the biggest question mark around him.

By the end of the playoffs the front office will have a firmer idea of a number that he's worth.

 

[Confucius]

Really? I would’ve guessed 4x4 would’ve been an initial offer from the Leafs considering the Mrazek deal. And I would’ve been comfortable with that.

If the lack of a contract is getting in his head at all then maybe it’s worth it to jump back into negotiations but his agent wouldn’t want that now while he’s at a low point in his season.

I'd think today the Leafs would be offering 3x 3.8, The same as Mrazek.