J.T. Miller this season

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He was the teams top center offensively and went up against the other teams top lines, including shutting down one Ryan Nugent Hopkins and also playing ahead of Galchenyuk.

Didn't get the accolades but he showed up that tournament was excellent. Best player on that US team was Gaudreau, and the guy feeding him the puck was Miller.

Not suggesting Miller is better than Galchenyuk or Gaudreau or RNH, but Miller was excellent that tournament.

Obviously you watched the tournament and understood what I said.

I meant that he was Team USAs best all-around player in the three tournaments I mentioned.

I know for a fact he was the best all-around player at the U18s. Not even debatable.
 
He was the teams top center offensively and went up against the other teams top lines, including shutting down one Ryan Nugent Hopkins and also playing ahead of Galchenyuk.

Didn't get the accolades but he showed up that tournament was excellent. Best player on that US team was Gaudreau, and the guy feeding him the puck was Miller.

Not suggesting Miller is better than Galchenyuk or Gaudreau or RNH, but Miller was excellent that tournament.

He was Team USA's best all around player, which means he was used in all situations. All three zones.

He was over 65 pct on faceoffs in 2013' bouncing between top two lines. He took all the key draws. Did you watch that tournament? He struggled early but was easily one of the best forwards once the games mattered.

Grimaldi and Gaudreau are skill players only. Miller was used in all situations in all three zones.

The fact that I had to waste my time explaining this to tells me you never watched him play at the U17 challenge or the U18.

You want you shake your head? Shake your head at the fact that you think best all-around player means leading scorer.

I'm talking specifically about the U20 in 2013 because I did not watch the U17 or U18 tournaments. I don't talk about what I don't watch. It's why I didn't mention it in my original post.

I watched every game of that U20 2013 tournament. Miller was not the team's best overall player. That's my opinion. In that tournament, I'd put Galchenyuk, Trouba, Gibson (are we counting goalies?), Gaudreau, and even Jake McCabe before Miller. To not take into account Gaudreau's SEVEN goals because he didn't PK or is only a "skill player" is asinine.

Here's a link to the "Best Player of the Game as Decided By the Team"

http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/306/IHM306000_85K_17_0.pdf

Count how many times Miller's name shows up. Spoiler alert: It's 0.

Of Gaudreau's 7 goals, 5 came in the elimination rounds. To his resume, Miller did assist on 3 of those. If you want to talk about stepping up when it matters.

These are just my opinions. It's time to get used to the fact that two people can watch the same thing and see it differently. I should look in the mirror when I say that, but at least to my account (or to make myself feel better, I guess) I can try and post facts to back it up. Not just say "Oh my god, did you even watch the games".
 
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No predictions, but whoever they use I just want them there from go. Polished vets struggled to learn this system. If it's a young guy, give him the season to acclimate. That alone might be an upgrade from Brad Richards' corpse skating on horse tranquilizers in the last two rounds of the playoffs.

Miller really needs to win the job then they need him to stay there. No shifting to the wing or sending him down unless he's abismal whick he won't be

21ish first rounder. This is what you draft them for
 
I actually am a doubter of JT Miller. I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see him evolving into anything more than a mediocre 3rd line player.
 
I actually am a doubter of JT Miller. I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see him evolving into anything more than a mediocre 3rd line player.

I must be even more of a doubter. I think that's a sunny outlook. I think he'll struggle to stick in the NHL.

I, too, hope to be wrong.
 
I think sticking Miller in Richards' spot would be the best thing to do for his development. He's dominated the AHL and he's ready for the big time. Putting him in between Hagelin and St. Louis, two veterans with blazing speed and a scorer's touch will concentrate Miller on being the creator we know he can be.

His defense still needs work, but that comes with time. IMO if Miller gets thrown into the fire immediately, I think by 30-40 games in, it will pay immense dividends for this team not only this year but going forward as well. It takes time to establish a proper two-way game at the NHL level, but Miller can do it. I think if they just let him do his thing and accept the growing pains, he can be a 45-point player, especially playing next to the previous two wingers, by the end of the season with noticeable improvements to the defensive side of his game.
 
Big Season Ahead for J.T. Miller

The upcoming season is a big one for J.T. Miller. The Rangers are reportedly expecting big things from the 21 year old this season.

Miller has 12 points in 60 career NHL games, numbers that don’t exactly scream top-nine forward at the NHL level. But there’s reason to believe those numbers don’t fully give him the offensive credit he deserves.
 

Good read. But, do you think comparing Miller at age 20 to Dubi at age 20 is fair?

Sure, they play a similar style. Size, decent speed, push the pace kind of forwards who were drafted as centers but might be better suited as wings. The comparisons are all there to make for sure.

Except, Miller was the 15th overall pick, and Dubinsky was 60th. Not to also be discredited is pro experience before the season you are comparing. Miller's 2013-2014 in Hartford came after logging 50 games at the AHL level, and 26 games at the NHL level. Dubinsky's pro experience prior to his 06-07 campaign? 11 AHL post-season games.

How about this then, comparing their first 50 games at the AHL level?

Miller (age 19) (8 playoff, 42 regular season) 24 points.
Dubinsky (age 20) (11 playoff, 39 regular season) 29 points.

Still very similar production, and Miller did his with a year in hand on Dubinsky.

35-40 points still remains a little optimistic of a production standpoint to assume for JT this season for me. Dubinsky had the pleasure of playing with Jagr because he EARNED that right in his first NHL season.

Will JT Miller EARN the right to play with MSL or MZA and Hagelin? Or will he just have to because center-depth is currently an issue for the Rangers? And if he does earn the spot, will he keep it like Dubinsky did?

Would it be unfair to compare their first 60 NHL games to each other? Miller's came in two different seasons as a 19/20 and 20/21 year old (26 and 34 respectively) while Dubinksy's came in at two different seasons as a 20/21 year old and 21/22 year old (6 and 44 respectively).

With that disclaimer aside:

Miller: 54 regular season, 6 playoff (12 points)
Dubinsky: 60 regular season (21 points)

Definitely similar if you take age into account. We will be very fortunate if JT Miller has the same successes in Blue as Dubinsky did. I remain pessimistic on that standpoint.

As always, there is more to the game than stats. Dubinsky earned the right to play because he looked like he belonged. Miller has yet to play that way on the ice. These are my opinions.

EDIT - Here's a question everyone should ask themselves. Looking (far) into the future. In his 27/28 year old season, will JT Miller have the capacity to be a bonafide leader on a playoff team? Further than that, will he have the two-way game and playability to matched up for an entire playoff series against Sidney Crosby, effectively torment him for 6 games, while still posting a point-per-game? And for you advanced stats guys, be matched up against Sid, with a 2.9 points-per-60 stat, as well as +4% and +6.8% relative corsi and fenwick respectively?

And, when advanced stats come into play everyone always says: well, there's more to the game than stats. And there is. You can't say (if you watched the games) that Dubinsky wasn't wildly effective against the Penguins, and a key cog to the Blue Jackets bringing that series to 6.

EDIT 2 - And I don't mean to discredit the whole blog post by nitpicking on one section. Again, I did really enjoy the read :)
 
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I'd vouch for JT Miller, not only do I think he has the tools to be an NHL player but I think he can ultimately provide 40 points in the right situation.

He was not put in any sort of position to succeed last season. I think he'll have a great shot be be a full time starter this year.
 
I'd vouch for JT Miller, not only do I think he has the tools to be an NHL player but I think he can ultimately provide 40 points in the right situation.

He was not put in any sort of position to succeed last season. I think he'll have a great shot be be a full time starter this year.

Forwards he played most with:

Brassard: 44.2%
Pouliot: 43.5%
Hagelin: 23.2%

Defenders he played most with:

McDonagh: 32.9%
Stralman: 31.7%

Relative quality of competition: -1%

Offensive zone starts: 37.8%

I don't see it either :dunno:
 
On ice is one thing, the shuttle bus from NY to Hartford is something else.

There aren't a lot of players that can do what he did in the AHL in terms of production while being bounced up and down so often.

There are a number of areas of the game where Miller's abilities well exceed those of layers like Kreider and Hagelin. He's decent at shielding the puck on the cycle, has decent puck handling, and doesn't shy away from contact. That's a package you can build on.

If JT Miler doesn't succeed in the NHL it will not be because he doesn't have the skill for it. It will be because he is tough to coach.
 
Good read. But, do you think comparing Miller at age 20 to Dubi at age 20 is fair?

Sure, they play a similar style. Size, decent speed, push the pace kind of forwards who were drafted as centers but might be better suited as wings. The comparisons are all there to make for sure.

Except, Miller was the 15th overall pick, and Dubinsky was 60th. Not to also be discredited is pro experience before the season you are comparing. Miller's 2013-2014 in Hartford came after logging 50 games at the AHL level, and 26 games at the NHL level. Dubinsky's pro experience prior to his 06-07 campaign? 11 AHL post-season games.

How about this then, comparing their first 50 games at the AHL level?

Miller (age 19) (8 playoff, 42 regular season) 24 points.
Dubinsky (age 20) (11 playoff, 39 regular season) 29 points.

Still very similar production, and Miller did his with a year in hand on Dubinsky.

35-40 points still remains a little optimistic of a production standpoint to assume for JT this season for me. Dubinsky had the pleasure of playing with Jagr because he EARNED that right in his first NHL season.

Will JT Miller EARN the right to play with MSL or MZA and Hagelin? Or will he just have to because center-depth is currently an issue for the Rangers? And if he does earn the spot, will he keep it like Dubinsky did?

Would it be unfair to compare their first 60 NHL games to each other? Miller's came in two different seasons as a 19/20 and 20/21 year old (26 and 34 respectively) while Dubinksy's came in at two different seasons as a 20/21 year old and 21/22 year old (6 and 44 respectively).

With that disclaimer aside:

Miller: 54 regular season, 6 playoff (12 points)
Dubinsky: 60 regular season (21 points)

Definitely similar if you take age into account. We will be very fortunate if JT Miller has the same successes in Blue as Dubinsky did. I remain pessimistic on that standpoint.

As always, there is more to the game than stats. Dubinsky earned the right to play because he looked like he belonged. Miller has yet to play that way on the ice. These are my opinions.

Dubinsky looked like he belonged when he was 21. He did not look like he belonged when he was 20. Far from it, in fact, in those 6 games. Dubinsky was competing with Immonen to be called up from Hartford. Neither player was able to stick with a team that had nothing, absolutely nothing, between Cullen and Betts on the depth chart. Miller had stronger competition to face to break into the Rangers roster at his natural position. 5 legitimate NHL centers compared to 3 that Dubinsky had to face. Beyond that, Dubinsky was extraordinarily lucky the next season. The Rangers top 2 centers (Drury/Gomez) had absolutely no chemistry with their best player (Jagr). And, once again, there was nothing between those guys and Betts. That situation is somewhat similar to Miller's position as a 21 year old. Dubinsky was competing with a 21 year old Korpikoski and a 19 year old Anisimov (first year in North America). Korpikoski was on the cusp of being able to play in the NHL, but it was clear Dubinsky was ahead of him. Miller is facing competition from Lombardi and Lindberg.

Frankly, I don't understand where the pessimism comes from, other than maybe from impatience. 19 and 20 year old seasons in the NHL aren't really anything to base an analysis of a player's potential on. AHL play is somewhat more indicative, although it's incumbent on the player to follow through on it, as we saw with Immonen. There are also big leaps in maturity around these ages. Hell, I wouldn't even be pessimistic about him if he fails to stick this season. It's when a player is 22 in training camp and can't make the team that I really start to worry about him.

Also, their relative draft positions could not matter less.
 
Yeah, despite the fact that Miller was a top 15 pick, I'm pretty sure everyone would (or should) sign for him being a good a player as 3rd rounder Dubinsky was/is.
 
Good read. But, do you think comparing Miller at age 20 to Dubi at age 20 is fair?

Sure, they play a similar style. Size, decent speed, push the pace kind of forwards who were drafted as centers but might be better suited as wings. The comparisons are all there to make for sure.

Except, Miller was the 15th overall pick, and Dubinsky was 60th. Not to also be discredited is pro experience before the season you are comparing. Miller's 2013-2014 in Hartford came after logging 50 games at the AHL level, and 26 games at the NHL level. Dubinsky's pro experience prior to his 06-07 campaign? 11 AHL post-season games.

How about this then, comparing their first 50 games at the AHL level?

Miller (age 19) (8 playoff, 42 regular season) 24 points.
Dubinsky (age 20) (11 playoff, 39 regular season) 29 points.

Still very similar production, and Miller did his with a year in hand on Dubinsky.

35-40 points still remains a little optimistic of a production standpoint to assume for JT this season for me. Dubinsky had the pleasure of playing with Jagr because he EARNED that right in his first NHL season.

Will JT Miller EARN the right to play with MSL or MZA and Hagelin? Or will he just have to because center-depth is currently an issue for the Rangers? And if he does earn the spot, will he keep it like Dubinsky did?

Would it be unfair to compare their first 60 NHL games to each other? Miller's came in two different seasons as a 19/20 and 20/21 year old (26 and 34 respectively) while Dubinksy's came in at two different seasons as a 20/21 year old and 21/22 year old (6 and 44 respectively).

With that disclaimer aside:

Miller: 54 regular season, 6 playoff (12 points)
Dubinsky: 60 regular season (21 points)

Definitely similar if you take age into account. We will be very fortunate if JT Miller has the same successes in Blue as Dubinsky did. I remain pessimistic on that standpoint.

As always, there is more to the game than stats. Dubinsky earned the right to play because he looked like he belonged. Miller has yet to play that way on the ice. These are my opinions.

EDIT - Here's a question everyone should ask themselves. Looking (far) into the future. In his 27/28 year old season, will JT Miller have the capacity to be a bonafide leader on a playoff team? Further than that, will he have the two-way game and playability to matched up for an entire playoff series against Sidney Crosby, effectively torment him for 6 games, while still posting a point-per-game? And for you advanced stats guys, be matched up against Sid, with a 2.9 points-per-60 stat, as well as +4% and +6.8% relative corsi and fenwick respectively?

And, when advanced stats come into play everyone always says: well, there's more to the game than stats. And there is. You can't say (if you watched the games) that Dubinsky wasn't wildly effective against the Penguins, and a key cog to the Blue Jackets bringing that series to 6.


EDIT 2 - And I don't mean to discredit the whole blog post by nitpicking on one section. Again, I did really enjoy the read :)

Does anybody ever think that a player at his age, drafted in his position, and with his level of NHL experience will have the capacity to do great things? Based on what? Did anyone honestly think Dubi had that at Miller's age without pretending they were extremely wise in hindsight?

There are a handful of prospects, maybe even less, who enter the league and just inspire justifiable faith in their abilities to do great things right off the bat - these are the Crosbys, the OVs, the Stammers, etc etc. Everyone else grows up and learns the game at this level and evolves. Some of them evolve into incredible players who can do incredible things, and some don't.
 
Dubinsky looked like he belonged when he was 21. He did not look like he belonged when he was 20. Far from it, in fact, in those 6 games. Dubinsky was competing with Immonen to be called up from Hartford. Neither player was able to stick with a team that had nothing, absolutely nothing, between Cullen and Betts on the depth chart. Miller had stronger competition to face to break into the Rangers roster at his natural position. 5 legitimate NHL centers compared to 3 that Dubinsky had to face. Beyond that, Dubinsky was extraordinarily lucky the next season. The Rangers top 2 centers (Drury/Gomez) had absolutely no chemistry with their best player (Jagr). And, once again, there was nothing between those guys and Betts. That situation is somewhat similar to Miller's position as a 21 year old. Dubinsky was competing with a 21 year old Korpikoski and a 19 year old Anisimov (first year in North America). Korpikoski was on the cusp of being able to play in the NHL, but it was clear Dubinsky was ahead of him. Miller is facing competition from Lombardi and Lindberg.

Frankly, I don't understand where the pessimism comes from, other than maybe from impatience. 19 and 20 year old seasons in the NHL aren't really anything to base an analysis of a player's potential on. AHL play is somewhat more indicative, although it's incumbent on the player to follow through on it, as we saw with Immonen. There are also big leaps in maturity around these ages. Hell, I wouldn't even be pessimistic about him if he fails to stick this season. It's when a player is 22 in training camp and can't make the team that I really start to worry about him.

Also, their relative draft positions could not matter less.

When I say Dubinsky's first NHL season, I mean the 07-08 season. Not the 06-07 campaign where he appeared in 6 games and yes, did not look like he belonged. And you are right, a lot of things worked in Dubinsky's favor in the 07-08 year. And he took advantage of it. Let's see if Miller does.

And I disagree on their relative draft positions not mattering. I expect more from a top 15 pick than I do from the last pick of the 2nd round. Let's see what he does.

The pessimism comes from what I have seen JT Miller do at the NHL level thus far. It has been less than inspiring. Less than smart hockey. Less than good hockey. I'm expecting a lot more from him this season, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't show it. Further, I HOPE he does show it. I want Miller to succeed. I'm not rooting against him, I'm just explaining my thoughts on him.

Does anybody ever think that a player at his age, drafted in his position, and with his level of NHL experience will have the capacity to do great things? Based on what? Did anyone honestly think Dubi had that at Miller's age without pretending they were extremely wise in hindsight?

There are a handful of prospects, maybe even less, who enter the league and just inspire justifiable faith in their abilities to do great things right off the bat - these are the Crosbys, the OVs, the Stammers, etc etc. Everyone else grows up and learns the game at this level and evolves. Some of them evolve into incredible players who can do incredible things, and some don't.

I would never argue otherwise.

I base what I say on what I've seen, and how I perceive that effecting the future. Everything I say about Miller is solely my opinion; and I do my best to back up what I say with facts and stats.
 
The pessimism comes from what I have seen JT Miller do at the NHL level thus far. It has been less than inspiring. Less than smart hockey. Less than good hockey. I'm expecting a lot more from him this season, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't show it. Further, I HOPE he does show it. I want Miller to succeed. I'm not rooting against him, I'm just explaining my thoughts on him.

People said the same thing about Kreider. He looked lost out there last season at an older age. Development is about flashes, sometimes it takes a full year for things to "click" for guys.

Have some patience, he was 20 years old last season. People so easily forget when other top players struggled in their early years.
 
When I say Dubinsky's first NHL season, I mean the 07-08 season. Not the 06-07 campaign where he appeared in 6 games and yes, did not look like he belonged. And you are right, a lot of things worked in Dubinsky's favor in the 07-08 year. And he took advantage of it. Let's see if Miller does.

And I disagree on their relative draft positions not mattering. I expect more from a top 15 pick than I do from the last pick of the 2nd round. Let's see what he does.

The pessimism comes from what I have seen JT Miller do at the NHL level thus far. It has been less than inspiring. Less than smart hockey. Less than good hockey. I'm expecting a lot more from him this season, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't show it. Further, I HOPE he does show it. I want Miller to succeed. I'm not rooting against him, I'm just explaining my thoughts on him.



I would never argue otherwise.

I base what I say on what I've seen, and how I perceive that effecting the future. Everything I say about Miller is solely my opinion; and I do my best to back up what I say with facts and stats.

Your thoughts on Miller, then, should come with an acknowledgement that players can significantly change from one year to the next at this stage of their development. The facts and stats you bring up likely have little bearing on what the player will look like during the next season. As far as I'm concerned, they don't matter.

My point about the draft picks is that, 3 years after their draft year, it matters less where they were picked and more about where they are in their development. After his 20/21 year old season, Dubinsky was on the cusp of being an effective 3rd liner in the NHL. After his 20/21 year old season, Miller is on the cusp of being an effective 3rd liner in the NHL. If that's where they both are/were, what does it matter where they were drafted? Your expectation should be of players on the cusp of performing in that role. There's the standard acknowledgement there that not every player gets over that cusp.

The thing here, that I don't understand, is if you have examples of players breaching and not breaching the roster from that position, why is there cause for pessimism? Or optimism for that matter? Why do these things require a position to be taken? We are all fans of the NY Rangers and their players. We all want to see JT Miller grab the chance and succeed. Why not just wait to see what unfolds instead of taking a position?

Then again, why have the discussion in the first place then? I recognize that if everyone shared my wait and see position on these kinds of things, there would be some pretty boring discussions.
 
Your thoughts on Miller, then, should come with an acknowledgement that players can significantly change from one year to the next at this stage of their development. The facts and stats you bring up likely have little bearing on what the player will look like during the next season. As far as I'm concerned, they don't matter.

My point about the draft picks is that, 3 years after their draft year, it matters less where they were picked and more about where they are in their development. After his 20/21 year old season, Dubinsky was on the cusp of being an effective 3rd liner in the NHL. After his 20/21 year old season, Miller is on the cusp of being an effective 3rd liner in the NHL. If that's where they both are/were, what does it matter where they were drafted? Your expectation should be of players on the cusp of performing in that role. There's the standard acknowledgement there that not every player gets over that cusp.

The thing here, that I don't understand, is if you have examples of players breaching and not breaching the roster from that position, why is there cause for pessimism? Or optimism for that matter? Why do these things require a position to be taken? We are all fans of the NY Rangers and their players. We all want to see JT Miller grab the chance and succeed. Why not just wait to see what unfolds instead of taking a position?

Then again, why have the discussion in the first place then? I recognize that if everyone shared my wait and see position on these kinds of things, there would be some pretty boring discussions.

I don't know about your stance on draft picks, I vehemently disagree, but I guess that's a topic for another day.

My thoughts on Miller always come with that thought, that players can significantly change from one season to the next, except with the caveat that in my opinion, I don't expect much from him :dunno:

I do agree, I'm rooting for him to succeed. I say it a lot mostly because I have to as a lot of my time on HFNYR these days is spent bashing Miller :laugh: I mean, if Miller can come in as the 3C and put up 40 or more points this season that'd go a hell of a long way in setting the Rangers up for another deep playoff run.

Waiting and seeing sounds like a plan. Will make for a boring off-season though ;)
 
Yeah, despite the fact that Miller was a top 15 pick, I'm pretty sure everyone would (or should) sign for him being a good a player as 3rd rounder Dubinsky was/is.

Dubinsky actually went at the end of the second round.
 
Miller really needs to win the job then they need him to stay there. No shifting to the wing or sending him down unless he's abismal whick he won't be

21ish first rounder. This is what you draft them for

That's kind of a given and I don't disagree. I was simply saying the system was tough for vets to learn. So if they go with a young guy, I want the coaches to let that person work through their bumps and work with them the entire season. Sending someone up and down incessantly won't help imho. As I stated, "...give him the season to acclimate. That alone might be an upgrade from Brad Richards' corpse skating on horse tranquilizers in the last two rounds of the playoffs."
 
That's kind of a given and I don't disagree. I was simply saying the system was tough for vets to learn. So if they go with a young guy, I want the coaches to let that person work through their bumps and work with them the entire season. Sending someone up and down incessantly won't help imho. As I stated, "...give him the season to acclimate. That alone might be an upgrade from Brad Richards' corpse skating on horse tranquilizers in the last two rounds of the playoffs."

The system wasn't tough for vets to learn, it was tough for them to adjust to from the system they had been playing for years prior. Miller's had an entire year in the organization with AV at the head.
 
The system wasn't tough for vets to learn, it was tough for them to adjust to from the system they had been playing for years prior. Miller's had an entire year in the organization with AV at the head.

Semantics don't really alter the actual results much, but if you prefer the term adjust, no worries. Adjusting and executing at the NHL level does not equal trying to do so at the AHL level or trying to do so when continually going up and down. At the end of the day, the NHL requires a much more rapid level of response, decision and execution, and regardless of system I am simply saying I'd strongly prefer a young player in place for the season to provide time to learn/adapt to that so that his overall play is a much more second nature thing come playoff time. Especially someone Miller's age.
 
Semantics don't really alter the actual results much, but if you prefer the term adjust, no worries. Adjusting and executing at the NHL level does not equal trying to do so at the AHL level or trying to do so when continually going up and down. At the end of the day, the NHL requires a much more rapid level of response, decision and execution, and regardless of system I am simply saying I'd strongly prefer a young player in place for the season to provide time to learn/adapt to that so that his overall play is a much more second nature thing come playoff time. Especially someone Miller's age.

I'm not arguing the point about the young player. I actually agree with that.

But the difference between me saying adjusting and you saying learning is not a semantic one.
 
I'm not arguing the point about the young player. I actually agree with that.

But the difference between me saying adjusting and you saying learning is not a semantic one.

I leave it as semantics simply because I'm not willing to assume what was in a player's head. They were not executing the system well at all initially. Whether that was through an inability to grasp it, to let go of old habits, or any other myriad of reasons, I can't guess. You may well be dead correct, but to me people are all different and I have no clue what was going on in anyone's head. I personally can't guess at that and call it fact.
 

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