Good read. But, do you think comparing Miller at age 20 to Dubi at age 20 is fair?
Sure, they play a similar style. Size, decent speed, push the pace kind of forwards who were drafted as centers but might be better suited as wings. The comparisons are all there to make for sure.
Except, Miller was the 15th overall pick, and Dubinsky was 60th. Not to also be discredited is pro experience before the season you are comparing. Miller's 2013-2014 in Hartford came after logging 50 games at the AHL level, and 26 games at the NHL level. Dubinsky's pro experience prior to his 06-07 campaign? 11 AHL post-season games.
How about this then, comparing their first 50 games at the AHL level?
Miller (age 19) (8 playoff, 42 regular season) 24 points.
Dubinsky (age 20) (11 playoff, 39 regular season) 29 points.
Still very similar production, and Miller did his with a year in hand on Dubinsky.
35-40 points still remains a little optimistic of a production standpoint to assume for JT this season for me. Dubinsky had the pleasure of playing with Jagr because he EARNED that right in his first NHL season.
Will JT Miller EARN the right to play with MSL or MZA and Hagelin? Or will he just have to because center-depth is currently an issue for the Rangers? And if he does earn the spot, will he keep it like Dubinsky did?
Would it be unfair to compare their first 60 NHL games to each other? Miller's came in two different seasons as a 19/20 and 20/21 year old (26 and 34 respectively) while Dubinksy's came in at two different seasons as a 20/21 year old and 21/22 year old (6 and 44 respectively).
With that disclaimer aside:
Miller: 54 regular season, 6 playoff (12 points)
Dubinsky: 60 regular season (21 points)
Definitely similar if you take age into account. We will be very fortunate if JT Miller has the same successes in Blue as Dubinsky did. I remain pessimistic on that standpoint.
As always, there is more to the game than stats. Dubinsky earned the right to play because he looked like he belonged. Miller has yet to play that way on the ice. These are my opinions.
EDIT - Here's a question everyone should ask themselves. Looking (far) into the future. In his 27/28 year old season, will JT Miller have the capacity to be a bonafide leader on a playoff team? Further than that, will he have the two-way game and playability to matched up for an entire playoff series against Sidney Crosby, effectively torment him for 6 games, while still posting a point-per-game? And for you advanced stats guys, be matched up against Sid, with a 2.9 points-per-60 stat, as well as +4% and +6.8% relative corsi and fenwick respectively?
And, when advanced stats come into play everyone always says: well, there's more to the game than stats. And there is. You can't say (if you watched the games) that Dubinsky wasn't wildly effective against the Penguins, and a key cog to the Blue Jackets bringing that series to 6.
EDIT 2 - And I don't mean to discredit the whole blog post by nitpicking on one section. Again, I did really enjoy the read