J.T. Miller this season

[vipernsx]

Last year as the #9 forward, Pouliot played 11:29 ES minutes a game. In 30 games Miller averaged :50 in PP TOI/G. The kid's played well in the minors and at the draft Slats pretty much said he'll be playing in NY next season because he's not only ready, he's cheap. From that you could expect that he'll be the #9 forward, playing about 11:30 ES and :50 in PP, getting around 12:20 a game, which seems appropriate for a rookie. Even if he plays another minute per game at 13:20, I still wouldn't expect his offensive production to eclipse Kreider's at 37pts playing over 15 minutes a game.

30-35pts of solid hockey would be great from the rookie and I'd expect that to be the upper limit.

 

[vipernsx]

The question is he the Rangers best internal option for 3c or 4c. Is he ahead of Lindberg?

6:20, the Ranger General Manager addresses and answers this question.

http://video.rangers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=627168

"Miller would have played in the playoffs had he not had a separated shoulder...as far as the other guys are concerned...we've got all summer to figure it out"

If you're going to trust the kid in the playoffs, you can trust the kid during the regular season.

 

[KreiMeARiver*]

Last year as the #9 forward, Pouliot played 11:29 ES minutes a game. In 30 games Miller averaged :50 in PP TOI/G. The kid's played well in the minors and at the draft Slats pretty much said he'll be playing in NY next season because he's not only ready, he's cheap. From that you could expect that he'll be the #9 forward, playing about 11:30 ES and :50 in PP, getting around 12:20 a game, which seems appropriate for a rookie. Even if he plays another minute per game at 13:20, I still wouldn't expect his offensive production to eclipse Kreider's at 37pts playing over 15 minutes a game.

30-35pts of solid hockey would be great from the rookie and I'd expect that to be the upper limit.

Great post, and totally agree with around 30 points, with 35 being the ceiling. Also, Kreider missed like 16 games, so his number would have been even higher.

I think if he settles in and realizes he isn't going back to the minors, he'll gain confidence and show us what he's capable of.

Love Miller

 

[Championship*]

He has to take a step forward. A big one preferably. Kreider needed an adjustment (and a new coach) to get things going. This is a big year for him, contract year as well.

 

[Beacon]

Presumably he comes into camp stronger and after working hard on at least one skill that you can practice alone the whole summer (e.g., shooting). If he's a little stronger and has improved one skill, he will play in the NHL, particularly after getting some team training in the preseason.

He was already a borderline NHLer last season, so a minor improvement in both his individual ability (summer) and team game (preseason) will be enough to have him start the year in New York.

 

[cheech70]

I am a big fan of JT. He is strong,fast and not afraid to mix it up. Yes his defensive assignments need to be improved but with AV he will get it. He has top 6 potential and is still very young. He skates with an edge and seems to be a confident kid.

 

[alkurtz]

I have every confidence that JTM is ready for a regular role on this team and will be a major asset from this point forward.

 

[Dfence033]

I will admit, I haven't read this whole thread, so if this information has been presented yet, forgive me. I see several of you comparing J.T. Miller to Brandon Dubinsky based on production and age. I found a few closer comparables:


(Based on 3 years-post draft AHL season [20-21 years old] and first full NHL season immediately following, who were drafted no earlier than 2006 [for league competitiveness continuity], who also tried to target guys who "struggled" in their first stints, where possible):


Player 1: (AHL) 69 games, 1.07PPG
(First NHL season): 56 games, 0.48 PPG
(NHL Career-to-date): 504 games, 0.75 PPG

Player 2: (AHL) 33 games, 1.03 PPG
(First NHL season): 82 games, 0.57 PPG
(NHL Career-to-date): 415 games, 0.91 PPG

Player 3: (AHL) 34 games, 0.94 PPG
(First NHL Season): 77 games, 0.53 PPG
(NHL Career-to-date): 300 games, 0.62 PPG

Player 4: (AHL) 62 games, 1.05 PPG
(First NHL Season): 82 games, 0.61 PPG

Player 5: (AHL) 56 games, 1.04 PPG
(First NHL Season): 57 games, 0.84 PPG


5 comparable players averages:
AHL 51 games, 53 points, 1.035 PPG
(Miller): 41 games, 42 points, 1.024 PPG

First NHL Seasons following AHL season: 71 games, 43 points, 0.602 PPG

What do all 5 of those comparables have in common? For starters, they all scored 45 or more points in the NHL last season.

For those suggesting it is completely unreasonable to think Miller could contribute approximately 40-45 points next season, it is actually around the norm for players in his situation to do so. Will he? I guess that's why there is a debate. But to dismiss the possibility as altogether absurd fails to recognize that it is common enough to have 5 examples readily available from last season alone. For those wondering, the 5 players are (in order): David Krejci, Claude Giroux, Brad Marchand, Tyler Johnson, and Gustav Nyqvist. They all play different brands of hockey. They are pests, scorers, and/or play-makers. They are all different sizes and draft pedigrees. They all have different strengths and weaknesses. It's a LOT more common for a Miller to make that leap than you'd think.

 

[Beacon]

There are very few players who score over a point per game in the AHL as 20 year olds who do not go on to have productive NHL careers.

The question is whether he will be closer to Anisimov, who is scoring .5 points per game or to the guys listed above by Dfence, who are averaging over.75 in their post-rookie seasons.

There is a big gap between a 40 and a 60 point center.

 

[Dfence033]

There are very few players who score over a point per game in the AHL as 20 year olds who do not go on to have productive NHL careers.

The question is whether he will be closer to Anisimov, who is scoring .5 points per game or to the guys listed above by Dfence, who are averaging over.75 in their post-rookie seasons.

There is a big gap between a 40 and a 60 point center.

That is true. I selected those players to demonstrate the rarity of players in those situations NOT becoming something of value, regardless of their positions, roles, or play-styles. J.T. Miller would be hugely disappointing at this point, if he had anything short of a ~40 points per season career, or even a ~25 point rookie season. That is approximately the floor for players in his current situation, and some posters in this thread are insinuating he most likely won't even reach that.

 

[Off Sides]

Guess I see it a little different than most, looks to me like Miller or Lindberg may make the team, but considering who they have signed, looks like there is only enough room for one.

They are not going to waive Glass, Lombardi in order to accommodate keeping both, nor are they likely to carry either as the extra.

I'll guess and say Miller ends up on the 4th line playing with Glass and either Lombardi or Moore. He ends up with like 15-25 points depending how many games he gets, on injuries higher up the depth chart, and if they pick him to move up.

 

[Mikos87]

I think Miller ends up as a Jarret Stoll type of center. A poor man's Mike Richards in his prime, poor man's Ryan Kesler. I see Miller as a very good jack of all trades 3rd line center at the very least.

A David Legwand would be a good comparison.

A 15-25-40 as a 3rd liner.

A 15-35-50 center if he's playing with good top 6 wingers.

 

[TurgePurge*]

There are very few players who score over a point per game in the AHL as 20 year olds who do not go on to have productive NHL careers.

The question is whether he will be closer to Anisimov, who is scoring .5 points per game or to the guys listed above by Dfence, who are averaging over.75 in their post-rookie seasons.

There is a big gap between a 40 and a 60 point center.

There are 60 point centers that are awesome and 60 point centers who suck. There are 40 point centers who are awesome and 40 point centers who suck.

Miller doesn't have an offensive skill set that is suited to PP so his numbers are going to be limited by that alone.

 

[Beacon]

There are 60 point centers that are awesome and 60 point centers who suck. There are 40 point centers who are awesome and 40 point centers who suck.

Miller doesn't have an offensive skill set that is suited to PP so his numbers are going to be limited by that alone.

There are 40 point centers who are awesome and 40 point centers who suck. There are 60 point centers that are awesome, but there are no 60 point centers who suck. If you can regularly score 60 points, even if you don't do much of anything else, you are still a pretty good player.

There are only 21 centers in all of NHL (and only 49 players in any position including centers, wings and defensemen) who scored 60+ points last season. If you scored 60 points, you are at least a below average 1C or a great 2C. Potentially, you might be an awesome 1C, but at the very least, you are an outstanding 2C.

 

[GraveyTrain9]

Miller has shown me nothing to convince me he should be the 3rd or 4th line center going into the season. If he impresses at camp then give him a shot, but I'm not high on this kid at all.

 

[free0717]

I like JTs game as a center better than the wing.

I think he upgrades the center position over Richards as Brad just did not have the wheels to keep up.

He wont get the PP minutes that Richards had so his point production will be less.

However Dan Boyle on the PP is > Brad Richards on the PP and
JT Miller 5 on 5> Brad Richards 5 on 5

I believe the cumulative effect will be an upgrade.

I just hope AV has an open mind and gives this kid a chance. I think Sather will make AV give him a chance.

 

[Fletch]

I like JTs game as a center better than the wing.

I think he upgrades the center position over Richards as Brad just did not have the wheels to keep up.

He wont get the PP minutes that Richards had so his point production will be less.

However Dan Boyle on the PP is > Brad Richards on the PP and
JT Miller 5 on 5> Brad Richards 5 on 5

I believe the cumulative effect will be an upgrade.

I just hope AV has an open mind and gives this kid a chance. I think Sather will make AV give him a chance.

this would obviously be great, but I think we are undervaluing Richards by saying this. He was a smart player who still did put up 50 points and was a player who didn't take bad penalties. Miller's a ways off from that at the moment. I he can outplay Richards, that would be awesome, but I do have my doubts at the moment.

 

[free0717]

this would obviously be great, but I think we are undervaluing Richards by saying this. He was a smart player who still did put up 50 points and was a player who didn't take bad penalties. Miller's a ways off from that at the moment. I he can outplay Richards, that would be awesome, but I do have my doubts at the moment.

Obviously Richie couldnt keep up with the Kings and it forced AV to move Dominick Moore up in the line up.

That sealed Richie's fate. Richie does have smarts and with another system, Richie could prosper but under AV's system, Richie just couldnt keep up.

There are questions marks about Millers Hockey sense and his defense. We will see if he gets it. I believe he will but if not, Its going to be Matthew Lombardi as our 3rd line center

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Tbh I like JT a lot. Had always the feeling that he still has to grow into his body. He's very talented at both ends of the ice. He doesn't shy away from contact at all.

He surely was handled not optimally. I agree that we should start him with the Pack and let establish himself as the top guy there. Then he'll be full time NHL ready.

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

The kid, for all the erroneous claims about his attitude, has been a leader at every level and on every team he has ever played.

Leader on USNTDP, U-18 Gold, U-20 Gold, PPG in AHL...

He is a born leader and a born winner. I don't think it is a coincidence that winning follows some players around their entire careers.

Kreider U-20 Gold, U-20 Bronze, 2x NCAA Champ, Beanpots, NHL ECF Champ, 2x ECF, 1x SCF.

Stepan U-20 Gold, NCAA Final, NHL ECF Champ, 2x ECF, 1x SCF.

All guys who have been *****ed about.

When guys continually get far with their teams, there is something going on.

Miller has a disease known as 21 year old with only 2 years pro. He will be fine.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Miller won gold at the U17, U18 and U20. In each tournament he was the best all-around player, which is why he shot up the rankings.

He was also an AHL all-star, played half a season in the NHL and was on a postseason roster.

He's ready, mistakes or no mistakes.

 

[silverfish]

Miller won gold at the U17, U18 and U20. In each tournament he was the best all-around player, which is why he shot up the rankings.

He was also an AHL all-star, played half a season in the NHL and was on a postseason roster.

He's ready, mistakes or no mistakes.

How can you just straight up post an opinon as a fact like that when you know it's completely false? How was JT Miller the "best all-around player" in the 2013 WJC?

He wasn't MVP of the tournament, let alone even the USA squad. He wasn't on a first-team all star. He tied for the team lead in scoring, and only had 2 goals in 7 games.

But no, you're right, best all-around player for sure

 

[Cake or Death]

No predictions, but whoever they use I just want them there from go. Polished vets struggled to learn this system. If it's a young guy, give him the season to acclimate. That alone might be an upgrade from Brad Richards' corpse skating on horse tranquilizers in the last two rounds of the playoffs.

 

[Mikos87]

How can you just straight up post an opinon as a fact like that when you know it's completely false? How was JT Miller the "best all-around player" in the 2013 WJC?

He wasn't MVP of the tournament, let alone even the USA squad. He wasn't on a first-team all star. He tied for the team lead in scoring, and only had 2 goals in 7 games.

But no, you're right, best all-around player for sure

He was the teams top center offensively and went up against the other teams top lines, including shutting down one Ryan Nugent Hopkins and also playing ahead of Galchenyuk.

Didn't get the accolades but he showed up that tournament was excellent. Best player on that US team was Gaudreau, and the guy feeding him the puck was Miller.

Not suggesting Miller is better than Galchenyuk or Gaudreau or RNH, but Miller was excellent that tournament.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

How can you just straight up post an opinon as a fact like that when you know it's completely false? How was JT Miller the "best all-around player" in the 2013 WJC?

He wasn't MVP of the tournament, let alone even the USA squad. He wasn't on a first-team all star. He tied for the team lead in scoring, and only had 2 goals in 7 games.

But no, you're right, best all-around player for sure

He was Team USA's best all around player, which means he was used in all situations. All three zones.

He was over 65 pct on faceoffs in 2013' bouncing between top two lines. He took all the key draws. Did you watch that tournament? He struggled early but was easily one of the best forwards once the games mattered.

Grimaldi and Gaudreau are skill players only. Miller was used in all situations in all three zones.

The fact that I had to waste my time explaining this to tells me you never watched him play at the U17 challenge or the U18.

You want you shake your head? Shake your head at the fact that you think best all-around player means leading scorer.