Prospect Info: Ives 2024 Final NHL Draft Rankings

[Captain3rdLine]

Not worth 10th overall for me. Slavin was a 4th round pick. Pelech was a 3rd round pick. A lot of those defensive defensemen with capped offensive upside that hit can be drafted later.

With a top 10 pick I'm prioritizing players with an elite skillset that are long gone after the top half of the first round.

He’s way better than those guys were as prospects and IMO has more upside than most the other guys we discuss for that pick.

 

[Guadana]

Not worth 10th overall for me. Slavin was a 4th round pick. Pelech was a 3rd round pick. A lot of those defensive defensemen with capped offensive upside that hit can be drafted later.

With a top 10 pick I'm prioritizing players with an elite skillset that are long gone after the top half of the first round.

You are making bad analysis. If you see potential of Slavin or Pelech, you are taking player in the first round. As high as you like him over other players.

 

[Unknown Caller]

You are making bad analysis. If you see potential of Slavin or Pelech, you are taking player in the first round. As high as you like him over other players.

I’m not making bad analysis. I’ve seen a million defensive defensemen (see Griffin Reinhardt and Adam Larsson) go top 10-20 and get out performed by mid-round picks. They are not as projectable as elite talent, and unlike high upside offense they can be found without using a premium pick.

 

[Guadana]

I’m not making bad analysis. I’ve seen a million defensive defensemen (see Griffin Reinhardt and Adam Larsson) go top 10-20 and get out performed by mid-round picks. They are not as projectable as elite talent, and unlike high upside offense they can be found without using a premium pick.

This is why some people are telling about 9-20 range, not about picking them by top-5 pick.
I didnt watch GR as a prospect, Larsson is breakdownable. His career is good overall. Overall its a bad analysis again because there were tonns of players in top-10 with "high ceiling" who get out performed by mid round picks.

When people are telling about Slavin or about Solberg - they are telling about very projectable players with specific skills - skating, speed, physical game, positional game, fast decision makng, good puck management. Reason why Faber was so predictable, reason why Sanderson was so predictable and was drafted high even when a lot of writers didnt saw him as a top-5 or even top-10 pick. Sens fans have no regrets.

 

[forceten]

I’m not making bad analysis. I’ve seen a million defensive defensemen (see Griffin Reinhardt and Adam Larsson) go top 10-20 and get out performed by mid-round picks. They are not as projectable as elite talent, and unlike high upside offense they can be found without using a premium pick.

Exactly. The most important thing is to draft for sociopathy, and then just randomly throw a dart at a board of people at certain positions because you're just as likely to get an outperformer as you would be if you used analysis to make the selection barring availability of sociopathy.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m not making bad analysis. I’ve seen a million defensive defensemen (see Griffin Reinhardt and Adam Larsson) go top 10-20 and get out performed by mid-round picks. They are not as projectable as elite talent, and unlike high upside offense they can be found without using a premium pick.

Griffin Reinhart couldn't skate. He was a terrible pick. I criticized it literally the day it was made.

Larsson was a different case, but many saw him like Silayev is seen now -- as a guy who is already air-tight defensively and also has offensive upside.

Neither is a comparison to Solberg, they're completely different players. Solberg is easily the best skater of these three, he is the most physical of the three, he is the best shooter of the three, he is the best puck-handler of the three. Larsson was probably the best amateur defender of the three, but Solberg is not too far behind.

I'd add that if Solberg was playing in the CHL or SHL instead of Norway this year, he'd probably be a consensus top-15 guy and in a litany of top 10 lists. People just didn't even see him until the world tourney.

 

[Guadana]

Griffin Reinhart couldn't skate. He was a terrible pick. I criticized it literally the day it was made.

Larsson was a different case, but many saw him like Silayev is seen now -- as a guy who is already air-tight defensively and also has offensive upside.

Neither is a comparison to Solberg, they're completely different players. Solberg is easily the best skater of these three, he is the most physical of the three, he is the best shooter of the three, he is the best puck-handler of the three. Larsson was probably the best amateur defender of the three, but Solberg is not too far behind.

I'd add that if Solberg was playing in the CHL or SHL instead of Norway this year, he'd probably be a consensus top-15 guy and in a litany of top 10 lists. People just didn't even see him until the world tourney.

Thats always about how good you know players from the draft. Its blah blah blah "i want upside" or "I want this player because he is good, better, what we need" etc.

I dont want Nygard or Solberg because their concept of the player is better, I want them because they are great prospects.

 

[My3Sons]

Exactly. The most important thing is to draft for sociopathy, and then just randomly throw a dart at a board of people at certain positions because you're just as likely to get an outperformer as you would be if you used analysis to make the selection barring availability of sociopathy.

You don’t need to draft your sociopaths with high picks because for some reason NHL front offices pretend that’s not what the league is prioritizing. Beyond that they need to be basically fungible players who can be cycled through the lineup as needed to cover for all the suspensions.

On a serious note, I’d suggest the Markstrom trade means NJ will pick at 10. Hopefully they make it count. I don’t want them to overthink it. Just pick the BPA on the list and go from there.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You don’t need to draft your sociopaths with high picks because for some reason NHL front offices pretend that’s not what the league is prioritizing. Beyond that they need to be basically fungible players who can be cycled through the lineup as needed to cover for all the suspensions.

On a serious note, I’d suggest the Markstrom trade means NJ will pick at 10. Hopefully they make it count. I don’t want them to overthink it. Just pick the BPA on the list and go from there.

I don't think the Devils can afford to not have a 1st round pick for 3 straight drafts at this stage in the organizational build so yes, trading the pick is extremely doubtful.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is the best mock draft I've seen or read yet. No unrealistic picks, team needs considered heavily and strong analysis. They have the Devils getting LD Sam Dickinson at #10 overall.

 

[HughesCorporation]

This is the best mock draft I've seen or read yet. No unrealistic picks, team needs considered heavily and strong analysis. They have the Devils getting LD Sam Dickinson at #10 overall.

id take that right now

 

[Forge]

How does solberg compare to someone like Guhle? Kaiden, not Brendan

 

[Guadana]

How does solberg compare to someone like Guhle? Kaiden, not Brendan

Even better skater, better positionally, if we are talking about draft year - Solberg is way better with the puck in the D zone under pressure. Much safier player.

 

[Better Call Sal]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805197278384156704

 

[StevenToddIves]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805197278384156704

We should all be thrilled with the possibility of Michael Brandsegg-Nygard to NJ at #10. I can't watch this kid enough.

 

[ninetyeight]

Ives 2024 NHL Draft Final Rankings

1. LW/C Berkly Catton, Spokane WHL after Celebrini and Demidov, no 2024-eligible forward can claim more pure all-purpose offensive upside than Catton. He’s a dynamic playmaker and puckhandler with great shooting ability and an off-the-charts offensive IQ. To me, he’s very reminiscent of Cole Perfetti at the same age — sublime offensive ability, but some questions about good-but-not-great skating, size (5’10-160), 200-foot play and ability to stick at center at the highest levels. But in terms of raw offensive potential, after the top 2 forwards are gone Catton has a claim as most dynamic scoring threat in the 2024 class.

Great work once again!

I do think you have Catton too low and you underrate his skating ability. He's one of the faster skaters in the draft and multiple scouting reports name that as one of his strengths. His physical and defensive game is a big weakness no doubt, but the offensive talent is off the charts. To me he's a top5 player in this draft, and the Devils should be ecstatic should he drop into the #10 slot (which I very much doubt).



I think when drafting in top10 you should shoot for high end skill, first line/top6/top4 potential. I don't see someone like Helenius ever being a first line gamechanger, but more of a complete mid6 grinder which are easier to acquire through free agency and trade. I have similar thoughts with Hage and Brandsegg-Nygård who both I do like. That said I'm not sure there are much better options at #10, unless someone like Buium, Lindstrom, Dickinson etc falls.

I think we could also need a more defensive defenceman like Silayev or Emery, but could that be acquired trading down (well not Silayev..) and how well does it fit our window if we are ready to compete now?

 

[MasterofGrond]

Really praying for Buium at this point. I had very little hope until the last week or so he'd make it to 10, but I'm really getting the vibe this might end up being a wacky draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Great work once again!

I do think you have Catton too low and you underrate his skating ability. He's one of the faster skaters in the draft and multiple scouting reports name that as one of his strengths. His physical and defensive game is a big weakness no doubt, but the offensive talent is off the charts. To me he's a top5 player in this draft, and the Devils should be ecstatic should he drop into the #10 slot (which I very much doubt).



I think when drafting in top10 you should shoot for high end skill, first line/top6/top4 potential. I don't see someone like Helenius ever being a first line gamechanger, but more of a complete mid6 grinder which are easier to acquire through free agency and trade. I have similar thoughts with Hage and Brandsegg-Nygård who both I do like. That said I'm not sure there are much better options at #10, unless someone like Buium, Lindstrom, Dickinson etc falls.

I think we could also need a more defensive defenceman like Silayev or Emery, but could that be acquired trading down (well not Silayev..) and how well does it fit our window if we are ready to compete now?

It's easy to like Berkly Catton. He's an exciting player full of offensive tools. He conjures high-danger scoring opportunities out of seeming thin air with impressive regularity. I've stated that, although I ranked him #15, he's not too far off to me from the players in the #6/#7 range. I just have more questions about him than I do about some other players, so my rankings reflected it. He's not the guy I would target for the Devils at #10 but I really like him as a player.

I think the views on Helenius are interesting. To me, he's a better center than Kotkaniemi was at the same age on every level, but people value size so much that Kotkaniemi shot up the rankings while Helenius sort of edged down as their draft-eligible seasons progressed. There's something to be said for a teenager who plays with such savvy and intelligence.

Michael Hage is a kid I can talk about forever. There's no player in this draft who had a more pronounced progression during this past season. The first 20 games, he did not seem like a 1st round pick at all. The last 20 games, he was far-and-away the most dominant player in the USHL. He's a terrific skater, loaded with offensive skills, and he just overcame so much this year both on a physical and personal level. I think he'll drop into the 15-25 range, but I think some years down the line he'll be far better than several players drafted ahead of him.

Nygard is a kid I've written about so much, but we really need to talk about how rare he is. His combination of elite or near-elite abilities -- hockey IQ, compete level, physicality/interior play, defensive awareness, skating and shooting -- makes him almost incomparable to anyone taken in the past 5 or so drafts. I feel his upside has been understated -- players with this kind of speed and power alone are uncommon, he's always heading to the net where the rebounds and deflections are and he can absolutely blast a filthy shot. I think he's going to score a lot of goals in the NHL.

 

[ninetyeight]

It's easy to like Berkly Catton. He's an exciting player full of offensive tools. He conjures high-danger scoring opportunities out of seeming thin air with impressive regularity. I've stated that, although I ranked him #15, he's not too far off to me from the players in the #6/#7 range. I just have more questions about him than I do about some other players, so my rankings reflected it. He's not the guy I would target for the Devils at #10 but I really like him as a player.

I think compared to some of the other offense first guys in this and previous drafts (like Eiserman), Catton is much more than just a goal scorer. Sure he is tiny and his defence game needs a lot of work, but his hockey IQ and creativity are top of this draft. Combine that with elite passing, shooting and hands. Where as someone like Eiserman is just an elite shooter with poor and disinterested game everywhere else. Catton could be the Caufield of this draft, where he should go in the top5-10, but might slip into 10-15 and turnout to be a huge steal for someone.

I think the views on Helenius are interesting. To me, he's a better center than Kotkaniemi was at the same age on every level, but people value size so much that Kotkaniemi shot up the rankings while Helenius sort of edged down as their draft-eligible seasons progressed. There's something to be said for a teenager who plays with such savvy and intelligence.

I was a bit higher on Helenius before, but his weaker international performances kinda lowered my expectations. I think it's also save to say that Liiga ain't what it used to be 10-20 years ago. That said I'm way higher on him than I ever was with Kotkaniemi. Helenius is a player coaches love, works hard and does all the right things. But right now at least it seems he misses that special it factor and skill that makes star players. If we compare him to his countrymen he reminds me of Artturi Lehkonen and Eetu Luostarinen, both valuably pieces in Stanley Cup winning teams, but is a 40pt middle6 worth a 10thOA? Maybe? I don't know..

Michael Hage is a kid I can talk about forever. There's no player in this draft who had a more pronounced progression during this past season. The first 20 games, he did not seem like a 1st round pick at all. The last 20 games, he was far-and-away the most dominant player in the USHL. He's a terrific skater, loaded with offensive skills, and he just overcame so much this year both on a physical and personal level. I think he'll drop into the 15-25 range, but I think some years down the line he'll be far better than several players drafted ahead of him.

There has been some questions about his acceleration and top speed, but at least his edge work looks great in highlights. He also has similar defensive weakness as some of the other forwards (like Catton). I do like everything else about his game. My only concerns are 1) why are none of the scouts / media ranking him into top10? And 2) how will his USHL production translate into NHL. Again at #10 we should be looking for topline close to ppg talent or top4 defencemen.

Nygard is a kid I've written about so much, but we really need to talk about how rare he is. His combination of elite or near-elite abilities -- hockey IQ, compete level, physicality/interior play, defensive awareness, skating and shooting -- makes him almost incomparable to anyone taken in the past 5 or so drafts. I feel his upside has been understated -- players with this kind of speed and power alone are uncommon, he's always heading to the net where the rebounds and deflections are and he can absolutely blast a filthy shot. I think he's going to score a lot of goals in the NHL.

What I love about him is.. wait for it.. he plays with men! Meaning sometimes big power forwards can dominate in junior leagues against people way smaller than them, which sometimes might make them look better than their actual skillset really is. The problem with MBN is that he plays in the second level league in Sweden and we don't have much comperable data from there (Elias Pettersson was ppg there in his draft year, Jesper Boqvist had better ppg ratio than MBN). He'll be in SHL next year when he's already drafted. While his skating is smooth and great for a big guy, in the highlights he doesn't look very fast even in Allsvenskan. How will he look when he's skating against guys like Makar and Q.Hughes. But yeah he's got a unique skillset and could be one of those guys that in few years we wonder why he wasn't picked top 5. But he definitely isn't a high floor sure fire gem without question marks.

 

[Hisch13r]

Really praying for Buium at this point. I had very little hope until the last week or so he'd make it to 10, but I'm really getting the vibe this might end up being a wacky draft.

Buium seems like a Seattle pick to me

 

[Nubmer6]

What I love about him is.. wait for it.. he plays with men!

Lewd.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think compared to some of the other offense first guys in this and previous drafts (like Eiserman), Catton is much more than just a goal scorer. Sure he is tiny and his defence game needs a lot of work, but his hockey IQ and creativity are top of this draft. Combine that with elite passing, shooting and hands. Where as someone like Eiserman is just an elite shooter with poor and disinterested game everywhere else. Catton could be the Caufield of this draft, where he should go in the top5-10, but might slip into 10-15 and turnout to be a huge steal for someone.



I was a bit higher on Helenius before, but his weaker international performances kinda lowered my expectations. I think it's also save to say that Liiga ain't what it used to be 10-20 years ago. That said I'm way higher on him than I ever was with Kotkaniemi. Helenius is a player coaches love, works hard and does all the right things. But right now at least it seems he misses that special it factor and skill that makes star players. If we compare him to his countrymen he reminds me of Artturi Lehkonen and Eetu Luostarinen, both valuably pieces in Stanley Cup winning teams, but is a 40pt middle6 worth a 10thOA? Maybe? I don't know..



There has been some questions about his acceleration and top speed, but at least his edge work looks great in highlights. He also has similar defensive weakness as some of the other forwards (like Catton). I do like everything else about his game. My only concerns are 1) why are none of the scouts / media ranking him into top10? And 2) how will his USHL production translate into NHL. Again at #10 we should be looking for topline close to ppg talent or top4 defencemen.



What I love about him is.. wait for it.. he plays with men! Meaning sometimes big power forwards can dominate in junior leagues against people way smaller than them, which sometimes might make them look better than their actual skillset really is. The problem with MBN is that he plays in the second level league in Sweden and we don't have much comperable data from there (Elias Pettersson was ppg there in his draft year, Jesper Boqvist had better ppg ratio than MBN). He'll be in SHL next year when he's already drafted. While his skating is smooth and great for a big guy, in the highlights he doesn't look very fast even in Allsvenskan. How will he look when he's skating against guys like Makar and Q.Hughes. But yeah he's got a unique skillset and could be one of those guys that in few years we wonder why he wasn't picked top 5. But he definitely isn't a high floor sure fire gem without question marks.

I'm actually in the "please no Eiserman" camp but I need to defend his overall skill set. He is capable of puck handling and passing on par with Catton. The problem is, Catton diversifies his abilities, Eiserman just wants to, pardon my French, shoot the f**king puck all day.

But as a draft guy with conviction, I'm going to stick to my guns and say if we're going to put down Eiserman it must be for the right reasons. His offensive skill set is undeniably incredible. It's his play without the puck, his compete level, and often his decision making with the puck which makes him a bit of a hair-puller.

I also wanted to touch on Nygard real quick. He is certainly high floor. He barely has to develop at all to be a heck of a physical 3rd liner. He's so smart, competitive, physical and fast he's already almost there. It's just a question of how much he will score at the highest levels.

I give him more offensive upside than most, simply because I believe a higher percentage of NHL goals are scored from net front traffic -- rebounds, deflections, screens. That's Nygard's bread and butter. A guy like Boqvist creates more from the soft areas which disappear very quickly in the NHL. Nygard is the king of the greasy goal, and that's going to benefit him going forward.


Lastly, I just wanted to add that I really enjoyed your post and you raised some terrific points about all these talented prospects.

 

[Nubmer6]

I'm actually in the "please no Eiserman" camp but I need to defend his overall skill set. He is capable of puck handling and passing on par with Catton. The problem is, Catton diversifies his abilities, Eiserman just wants to, pardon my French, shoot the f**king puck all day.

But as a draft guy with conviction, I'm going to stick to my guns and say if we're going to put down Eiserman it must be for the right reasons. His offensive skill set is undeniably incredible. It's his play without the puck, his compete level, and often his decision making with the puck which makes him a bit of a hair-puller.

I also wanted to touch on Nygard real quick. He is certainly high floor. He barely has to develop at all to be a heck of a physical 3rd liner. He's so smart, competitive, physical and fast he's already almost there. It's just a question of how much he will score at the highest levels.

I give him more offensive upside than most, simply because I believe a higher percentage of NHL goals are scored from net front traffic -- rebounds, deflections, screens. That's Nygard's bread and butter. A guy like Boqvist creates more from the soft areas which disappear very quickly in the NHL. Nygard is the king of the greasy goal, and that's going to benefit him going forward.


Lastly, I just wanted to add that I really enjoyed your post and you raised some terrific points about all these talented prospects.

I know you hate comparisons to current players, but from everything written about MBN, I'm picturing a Coleman-esque type player as a floor and a Brady Tkachuk ceiling. Meanwhile, I'm picturing Lindstrom as a Matthew Tkachuk type if he hits his ceiling.

Eiserman seems like a bit of a gamble, but I wonder how much my aversion of him is based on our Holtz experience.

 

[Guadana]

I know you hate comparisons to current players, but from everything written about MBN, I'm picturing a Coleman-esque type player as a floor and a Brady Tkachuk ceiling. Meanwhile, I'm picturing Lindstrom as a Matthew Tkachuk type if he hits his ceiling.

Eiserman seems like a bit of a gamble, but I wonder how much my aversion of him is based on our Holtz experience.

MBN is a very good defensive forward. He will not be Brady Tkachuk because Brady is worser in d xone, much more psycho, he is playing more as a net driver, Nygard is net driver too, but he is much more positional player who is making fast decision, he strong but he isn't real tank.
Overall I like your idea. Nygard is somewhere between defensive forechecker with scoring upside and ppg player who is controlling all of the ice.

 

[ninetyeight]

I'm actually in the "please no Eiserman" camp but I need to defend his overall skill set. He is capable of puck handling and passing on par with Catton. The problem is, Catton diversifies his abilities, Eiserman just wants to, pardon my French, shoot the f**king puck all day.

Yeah I'm not gonna lie, the thought of Eiserman on Jack's wing does intrigue me. Gives me flashbacks to those USDP Hughes-Caufield days. But Jack has developed into a quite the goalscorer himself, and probably gains more from someone who can (= will) also defend, steal and pass the puck.

Unfortunately this year outside of Celebrini and Helenius I haven't been able to watch full games of these prospects. But I've watched a bunch of highlight/breakdown videos and read scouting reports and I'm pretty excited about everyone in the possible top10. Connelly, Parekh and Sennecke would be the only ones I'd be disappointed, along with possibly big reaches that could be picked with trading down.