Prospect Info: Ives 2022 Top 100 NHL Draft Rankings (Spring Edition, 2.0)

[StevenToddIves]

Here's a nice little scouting video on one of my favorite players for the 2022 draft, Mississauga center Owen Beck. He's one of the better two-way players in the draft, and I'd go so far as to call his hockey sense elite. Plus skater with potentially elite defense, and the requisite offensive skills to produce supplementary offense at the highest levels. Decent size at 6'0-190 and could potentially be available when the Devils pick in the 2nd round (as of today, #39 overall) -- though I'd say the highest likelihood has him going in the #25-#35 range.

As I often say, one of the Devils biggest needs in the 2022 draft is center depth, especially a middle six guy to hopefully slot behind Hughes and Hischier someday. The jury is still out on Boqvist, while the Devils top center prospect is Jaromir Pytlik, whom we hope can fill a 4th round role in the future. With Shlaine and Baumgartner mostly looking like they're washing out, some depth is seriously needed here.

It's hard not to be impressed with Owen Beck. Just such a smart and responsible player, and also dangerous offensively.

 

[tunnelvision]

It's hard not to be impressed with Owen Beck. Just such a smart and responsible player, and also dangerous offensively.

The more I watch him the more I begin to respect his qualities as a center. Very impressive in positional play. In the Mississauga games I saw earlier this year I thought his skating looked rather average in all aspects but now I think it's actually looking pretty good. Just doesn't seem to have crazy top speed or explosiveness imo. Based on FO% he's probably the best faceoff guy in OHL this year.

Do you think his size (6'0-190) can be seen as a disadvantage at the draft in comparison to other 18-year olds of his height who aren't as "hefty" as Beck? It's an honest question; as a casual fan, I'm just wondering if scouts think that those lighter guys may have more hidden potential because they haven't grown into their frames yet.

 

[longislanddevil]

I’m sure it’s already been said so I’ll just add to it. Am I annoyed the Devils finally got some quality goaltending on this road trip?! I sure am. Shame on Vegas. They needed last night’s game bad and were stonewalled by Andrew Freaking Hammond. I had penciled this game in as a loss. Nope. Meanwhile, the Flyers and Blackhawks are both in free fall. I am not optimistic about the Devils finishing lower than either of them. Last night’s unexpected win now tightens things with Ottawa. There is a very real chance we pick 6th or 7th. I think an absolute best scenario without winning a lottery ball is selecting 5th (would need to stay behind Ottawa and Chicago).

The player I want is Jiricek. It would feel a little dirty hoping the Flyers win a lottery ball but I’m convinced Jiricek is their target (would love to be wrong). If the Devils don’t come away with either Jiricek or Nemec, I will be disappointed. Gauthier is a very nice consolation but not if the Devils overdraft him at 6OA. While Fitz has proven to be a shrewd trader, there is enough evidence now to suggest he needs marked improvement in working a draft. I don’t think he would trade down but he SHOULD in that scenario.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The more I watch him the more I begin to respect his qualities as a center. Very impressive in positional play. In the Mississauga games I saw earlier this year I thought his skating looked rather average in all aspects but now I think it's actually looking pretty good. Just doesn't seem to have crazy top speed or explosiveness imo. Based on FO% he's probably the best faceoff guy in OHL this year.

Do you think his size (6'0-190) can be seen as a disadvantage at the draft in comparison to other 18-year olds of his height who aren't as "hefty" as Beck? It's an honest question; as a casual fan, I'm just wondering if scouts think that those lighter guys may have more hidden potential because they haven't grown into their frames yet.

Honestly, I ranked Beck #23 overall for a reason. I don't see a drawback with this bright, young player aside from a lack of high-end scoring upside. His compete level and hockey IQ are elite. I can easily foresee a 40-55 point, two-way stud for an NHL middle six.

I'd go so far as to include Beck in my Tier 3 of centers for the 2022 draft, that's how high I am on him.

Tier One
Wright

Tier Two
Cooley
Savoie

Tier Three
Kasper
McGroarty
Geekie
Beck

Tier Four
Ostlund
Morrison
Goyette
Del Bel Belluz
Kaskimaki
Sapovaliv
McConnell-Barker

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m sure it’s already been said so I’ll just add to it. Am I annoyed the Devils finally got some quality goaltending on this road trip?! I sure am. Shame on Vegas. They needed last night’s game bad and were stonewalled by Andrew Freaking Hammond. I had penciled this game in as a loss. Nope. Meanwhile, the Flyers and Blackhawks are both in free fall. I am not optimistic about the Devils finishing lower than either of them. Last night’s unexpected win now tightens things with Ottawa. There is a very real chance we pick 6th or 7th. I think an absolute best scenario without winning a lottery ball is selecting 5th (would need to stay behind Ottawa and Chicago).

The player I want is Jiricek. It would feel a little dirty hoping the Flyers win a lottery ball but I’m convinced Jiricek is their target (would love to be wrong). If the Devils don’t come away with either Jiricek or Nemec, I will be disappointed. Gauthier is a very nice consolation but not if the Devils overdraft him at 6OA. While Fitz has proven to be a shrewd trader, there is enough evidence now to suggest he needs marked improvement in working a draft. I don’t think he would trade down but he SHOULD in that scenario.

The Devils are currently playing their way out of Jiricek and Nemec, much like they did with Sanderson and Drysdale two years ago. Jiricek and Nemec are certainly solidifying themselves as top 5 picks, and they play at the universally coveted position of RD. Teams at the top of the draft who will have strong interest in them include not just Philadelphia, but also Montreal, Seattle, Columbus and Buffalo.

Arizona is very likely to go with a center, while Ottawa is a wild card because they despise drafting from Eastern Europe for whatever reason. The closest they've come at the top of the draft under current management has been with a Central European, and Tim Stutzle was almost a no-brainer where they took him. But Jiricek certainly represents their *type* of player, so it's a possibility for the Senators, as well.

As of today, the Devils most likely draft position is #7 overall. I'd say there's no chance of Jiricek or Nemec at that spot. As you stated, Fitzgerald's draft-day MO is never trade down, even if you're going completely off the board. As such, I'd say the most likely Devils 2022 first round picks would be, in order:

1 LW Gauthier
2 LW Yurov
3 RW Nazar
4 RD Chesley

As stated, I feel Wright, Slafkovsky, Jiricek, Nemec and Cooley are all fairly certain to be gone by the 6/7 OA range. I'm tossing out Kemell, because he's redundant to Holtz, and Savoie, because he's redundant to the Devils highest offensive talents and seemingly not a Fitzgerald-type preferred pick. The Devils have leaned to higher-compete players in the early rounds, so I'm also dismissing Lambert and Geekie.

At the very least, it's not a disaster if they get Gauthier or Yurov or Nazar. Chesley at #7 would be a bit tough to swallow, but it's certainly feasible, judging on Fitzgerald's draft history. But it would make taking a RD with the 2nd round pick absolutely imperative, to say the least. It's far preferable to get that high end RD in the first round and then use the 2nd rounder for the best available player, especially since it's conceivable that a high-end player falls there.

 

[Devs3cups]

One thing that I think we need to keep in mind is that the fact we're likely getting a top-7 pick this season is absolutely gravy.

In normal circumstances (ahem, average goaltending, ahem), we're most likely drafting around 12th-14th overall. Getting another top tier high first round selection is a bonus, we shouldn't even be there, this team isn't as bad as their record. It's unfortunate if we don't get one of the 2 RD, but that's how I see it right now.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[youryeah]

here's hoping this is the last time in a while we're looking forward to the draft lottery this early

 

[StevenToddIves]

Great, let's hope we can string together a few losses by then, haha.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Praying for the 2nd pick.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Big wins for Seattle and Chicago tonight.
We’re sitting in 5th last, 3 points ahead of Seattle and 2 behind Chicago.

Current standings:
26. Ottawa 65 (5 games)
27. Chicago 63 (5 games)
28. New Jersey 61 (6 games)
29. Seattle 58 (6 games)
30. Philadelphia 57(5 games)

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

VI) As we know, I work for you guys for free. But this is a ton of work, and as such you are all greatly encouraged to buy me a beer if you should ever run into me in the actual world. I really like beer.


57. RD Seamus Casey, US-NTDP lacks high end speed and just 5’10-160, but Casey is just as adept without the puck as with it; may not produce same numbers in pros as amateurs, but there’s some Andy Greene in his game

In your February profile you have Casey gone by the second round.

Prospect Info: - 2022 NHL Draft Prospects

Him trying his hardest isn’t good enough then. Guy is allergic to scoring goals What does that have to do with him wanting or not wanting to be with NJ? Saying he stinks is a completely different issue. If a guy wants out it's much worse than if he stinks.

hfboards.mandatory.com

He'll be playing with Hughes and Edwards at Michigan.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think Casey, along with other USNTDP guys like Chesley, and on the forward side, Howard, Snuggerud, McGroaty, etc could potentially get a big bump from the U18 tourney. The rankings on some of these guys is fuzzy so this will likely make a big impression as this team should kick ass (not sure about the goaltending though).

A big tournament for one of the top guys (Cooley, Nazar, Gauthier) could make them a sexier high pick as well.

The Swedes are the most interesting team coming in, at least there’s something of a pecking order in the US ranks. People have ranked the Djurgardens threesome all over the place. It will be fun to see that strong defensive group together. This could juice that group’s draft stock.

They have a bunch of intriguing later round guys who will likely mostly all get picked (the New Russian Factor is certainly not a bad thing if you’re a Swedish or Finnish prospect).

Their main goalies are 5’10” and 5’9” so it’s not useful for draft purposes but I want to see the 5’9” guy play lol.

Canada is not very exciting in comparison for this draft (damn those CHL playoffs) as 2023’s Bedard and Fantilli are the most interesting guys there. Owen Pickering and David Goyette are probably the biggest attractions. A big tournament from goalie Reid Dyck would likely get him drafted. The benefits of being 6’4” & 194.

The Finns have Kemell and, again, a huge tournament could change the narrative on him. Nyman should abuse and dominate at this level, and that will help him out too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

In your February profile you have Casey gone by the second round.

Prospect Info: - 2022 NHL Draft Prospects

Him trying his hardest isn’t good enough then. Guy is allergic to scoring goals What does that have to do with him wanting or not wanting to be with NJ? Saying he stinks is a completely different issue. If a guy wants out it's much worse than if he stinks.

hfboards.mandatory.com

He'll be playing with Hughes and Edwards at Michigan.

Seamus Casey is a likely pick around the tail end of the first round to the top half of the second round, in my opinion.

Casey is very good two ways, but most of his issues are with strength, as he's just 5'10-160. This explains his high consensus ranking but much lower scout ranking, as NHL scouts tend to place a greater emphasis on size/strength with defensemen than draft writers.

Casey put up good but not amazing numbers with the US-NTDP, tallying 9 goals and 17 assists for 26 points in 41 games. He's solid and reliable defensively, without being any sort of shut down guy. He's very good in transition and with the puck, without being a high-end type in those respects.

As such, we see the disparity in his rankings. Dobber and The Puck Authority have ranked him as high as #11 overall for the 2022 draft, while Smart Scouting has him at #12 and McKeen's at #17. His lowest ranking -- and it's not close -- is McKenzie's Scout Poll, which has him in the middle of the 2nd round at #44. My own ranking (#57) is closer to McKenzie's than to his consensus, which is probably in the mid-1st round.

To me, this is not disparaging Casey, whom I like as a player. I simply feel drafting a 5'10-160 D in the first round is a hideous mistake, unless the player is an absolutely elite skater with absolutely elite puck skills, in the Quinn Hughes vein. And this is not Casey, who is good two-ways, but still has about a 40-point-type upside and will always have difficulties down low against opposing power forwards. So to me, he's more of a guy I look at in the late 2nd round because he's, quite simply, very good at hockey. But not in the 1st because he's extremely unlikely to be an all-situations type at the highest levels.

Again, this is more of a philosophical difference than a statement on Casey. I tend to agree with NHL scouts that defensemen need to be either more able to handle the physical rigors of the game, or absolutely elite offensive talents. I'd rather have a very good, physical defender scoring 15-20 points per year in my bottom 4 than a 40-point defender who struggles in the defensive and physical games.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think Casey, along with other USNTDP guys like Chesley, and on the forward side, Howard, Snuggerud, McGroaty, etc could potentially get a big bump from the U18 tourney. The rankings on some of these guys is fuzzy so this will likely make a big impression as this team should kick ass (not sure about the goaltending though).

A big tournament for one of the top guys (Cooley, Nazar, Gauthier) could make them a sexier high pick as well.

The Swedes are the most interesting team coming in, at least there’s something of a pecking order in the US ranks. People have ranked the Djurgardens threesome all over the place. It will be fun to see that strong defensive group together. This could juice that group’s draft stock.

They have a bunch of intriguing later round guys who will likely mostly all get picked (the New Russian Factor is certainly not a bad thing if you’re a Swedish or Finnish prospect).

Their main goalies are 5’10” and 5’9” so it’s not useful for draft purposes but I want to see the 5’9” guy play lol.

Canada is not very exciting in comparison for this draft (damn those CHL playoffs) as 2023’s Bedard and Fantilli are the most interesting guys there. Owen Pickering and David Goyette are probably the biggest attractions. A big tournament from goalie Reid Dyck would likely get him drafted. The benefits of being 6’4” & 194.

The Finns have Kemell and, again, a huge tournament could change the narrative on him. Nyman should abuse and dominate at this level, and that will help him out too.

Nazar and Gauthier can really benefit from this tourney. Calle Odelius and Noah Ostlund, to me, are the players to watch for Sweden who can really bump their draft stock. I think Nyman will have a good tournament, but the big question for him has more to do with improving his skating than his ability to physically dominate kids his own age.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Here's a nice little video on Noah Warren, a 6'5 RD with very good skates, a booming shot and big-time physicality and shut-down capabilities. Though his consensus ranking is probably in the early 3rd round, I have him considerably higher at #44 overall and I would consider him as early as the Devils 2nd round pick, especially if the Devils unfortunately miss out on Jiricek and Nemec in the 1st.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm currently watching Mississauga v Barrie, but need to go to work soon. A few notes:

1) No team in the OHL misses one injured player more than Barrie misses Brandt Clarke. Their breakout is lost without him. It's Hunter Haight, Beau Jelsma or bust.

2) Speaking of Jelsma, he's been the most impressive player for the Colts thus far. Great hustle and smart player with a decent amount of skill. I have him at #91 right now, and the feisty LW would be a great guy to target if he fell to the 4th round.

3) Owen Beck is so so smart. I can't say enough about the kid. If he falls to the 2nd round, the Devils could have the ideal 3C for the foreseeable future. I'm worried the Devils brass will want a bigger body to fill this role, but man can Beck play some high-end, two-way hockey. He's my #23 overall.

4) Luca Del Bel Belluz has been very impressive, as well. He's got NHL 2C upside, and I like his development arc. He never stood out to me before this season, and I felt he's improved exponentially as this season has progressed. He may be a reach in the early 2nd, but he'd be a great grab in the 3rd. He's my #53 right now.

5) I don't mean to sour grapes, but I feel Ethan Del Mastro might be the top defender in the entire OHL right now. I was very high on him last year, even considering him worthy of a late 1st round pick. I get the Devils didn't draft him early after taking another LD in Luke Hughes at #4 overall, but it's shocking to me how he did not go until the #105 overall pick.

6) Hunter Haight is a very good player. I have some questions about his projectability and I feel that -- like many OHL prospects -- he's generally a bit over-ranked, but he certainly deserves due credit for his skill and high intelligence on the ice.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Last night, I watched the Hamilton victory vs. Peterborough. I suppose the obvious question people want to know around here is how was Chase Stillman. So, some notes:

1) Chase Stillman was ok. I liked his defensive work and forecheck, and he had a couple nice shifts on the PK. But he did not drive play even remotely, and barely possessed the puck. He's a high floor guy for the bottom 6, but he's got to display more skill if he hopes to be considered a possible middle-6 upside-type.

2) The Petes were outclassed, through and through. I'd be shocked if they won a game. But I felt Tucker Robertson was impressive for them. He just missed my spring top 100, but will be considered again for the final rankings.

3) Logan Morrison is my top over-ager and #39 overall player for the draft, and he proves me right every time I watch him. He scored two goals, and even though one was more "right place, right time" than skill, he raises my eyebrows every time he possesses the puck, which is quite often. His passing is elite-level, his hockey IQ is elite as well. One of the most underrated players for the draft in the last 5 years. He's probably a 4th round pick, and he'll be an absolute steal there.

4) Mason McTavish is freaking ridiculous. Peterborough had no answer for his strength, skill and ridiculous shot. Anaheim was criticized by some for taking him #3 overall, but this kid is going to be a tremendous NHL player.

5) Hamilton RW Avery Hayes really impressed me. He's very skilled and gritty as hell. I feel if he were 6'1 instead of 5'10 he'd be getting a lot of 2nd round love. He's going to enter my final top 100 list, I feel.

6) Hamilton LD Nathan Staios is an undrafted 20 year old who might be worth giving a tryout contract to. He's 5'10 and lacks elite speed, but his puck skills and vision are high end, and he's got a good shot, too. I think he has bottom-4, offense-first type upside for an NHL blueline.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Last night, I watched the Hamilton victory vs. Peterborough. I suppose the obvious question people want to know around here is how was Chase Stillman. So, some notes:

1) Chase Stillman was ok. I liked his defensive work and forecheck, and he had a couple nice shifts on the PK. But he did not drive play even remotely, and barely possessed the puck. He's a high floor guy for the bottom 6, but he's got to display more skill if he hopes to be considered a possible middle-6 upside-type.

2) The Petes were outclassed, through and through. I'd be shocked if they won a game. But I felt Tucker Robertson was impressive for them. He just missed my spring top 100, but will be considered again for the final rankings.

3) Logan Morrison is my top over-ager and #39 overall player for the draft, and he proves me right every time I watch him. He scored two goals, and even though one was more "right place, right time" than skill, he raises my eyebrows every time he possesses the puck, which is quite often. His passing is elite-level, his hockey IQ is elite as well. One of the most underrated players for the draft in the last 5 years. He's probably a 4th round pick, and he'll be an absolute steal there.

4) Mason McTavish is freaking ridiculous. Peterborough had no answer for his strength, skill and ridiculous shot. Anaheim was criticized by some for taking him #3 overall, but this kid is going to be a tremendous NHL player.

5) Hamilton RW Avery Hayes really impressed me. He's very skilled and gritty as hell. I feel if he were 6'1 instead of 5'10 he'd be getting a lot of 2nd round love. He's going to enter my final top 100 list, I feel.

6) Hamilton LD Nathan Staios is an undrafted 20 year old who might be worth giving a tryout contract to. He's 5'10 and lacks elite speed, but his puck skills and vision are high end, and he's got a good shot, too. I think he has bottom-4, offense-first type upside for an NHL blueline.

It’s kind of crazy how good Mctavish has gotten so quickly since the OHL finally started playing last season. Looks like a good pick by Anaheim so far and Mctavish just seems to be getting better and better.

Honestly everyone in the top 6 of the draft has had a very good season. Eklund at 7 is the first guy who’s having somewhat of a disappointing season on the surface but there’s a very good chance he’ll bounce back.

 

[Rydev]

From what little Ive seen of these names so far, I think Id rank these favorite prospects on potential in this draft as such:

Slafkovsky
Jiricek
Wright
Cooley
Kemell

Curious what your thoughts are on that, OP

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Last night, I watched the Hamilton victory vs. Peterborough. I suppose the obvious question people want to know around here is how was Chase Stillman. So, some notes:

1) Chase Stillman was ok. I liked his defensive work and forecheck, and he had a couple nice shifts on the PK. But he did not drive play even remotely, and barely possessed the puck. He's a high floor guy for the bottom 6, but he's got to display more skill if he hopes to be considered a possible middle-6 upside-type.

2) The Petes were outclassed, through and through. I'd be shocked if they won a game. But I felt Tucker Robertson was impressive for them. He just missed my spring top 100, but will be considered again for the final rankings.

3) Logan Morrison is my top over-ager and #39 overall player for the draft, and he proves me right every time I watch him. He scored two goals, and even though one was more "right place, right time" than skill, he raises my eyebrows every time he possesses the puck, which is quite often. His passing is elite-level, his hockey IQ is elite as well. One of the most underrated players for the draft in the last 5 years. He's probably a 4th round pick, and he'll be an absolute steal there.

4) Mason McTavish is freaking ridiculous. Peterborough had no answer for his strength, skill and ridiculous shot. Anaheim was criticized by some for taking him #3 overall, but this kid is going to be a tremendous NHL player.

5) Hamilton RW Avery Hayes really impressed me. He's very skilled and gritty as hell. I feel if he were 6'1 instead of 5'10 he'd be getting a lot of 2nd round love. He's going to enter my final top 100 list, I feel.

6) Hamilton LD Nathan Staios is an undrafted 20 year old who might be worth giving a tryout contract to. He's 5'10 and lacks elite speed, but his puck skills and vision are high end, and he's got a good shot, too. I think he has bottom-4, offense-first type upside for an NHL blueline.

I had the game on my laptop during the Devils game. Montreal prospect Arber Xhekaj stood out the most to me.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

 

[StevenToddIves]

From what little Ive seen of these names so far, I think Id rank these favorite prospects on potential in this draft as such:

Slafkovsky
Jiricek
Wright
Cooley
Kemell

Curious what your thoughts are on that, OP

If you're going strictly by "potential", I'd say it's:

1 Slafkovsky
2 Wright
3 Jiricek
4 Lambert
5 Miroshnichenko
6 Nemec
7 Cooley

But "potential" is a loaded term on draft day. We also need to factor in how likely the players are to reach the potential, which must drop a Lambert and raise a Perevalov, for instance.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I had the game on my laptop during the Devils game. Montreal prospect Arber Xhekaj stood out the most to me.

Yes, Xhekaj was outstanding. I agree.

 

[Guadana]

If you're going strictly by "potential", I'd say it's:

1 Slafkovsky
2 Wright
3 Jiricek
4 Lambert
5 Miroshnichenko
6 Nemec
7 Cooley

But "potential" is a loaded term on draft day. We also need to factor in how likely the players are to reach the potential, which must drop a Lambert and raise a Perevalov, for instance.

I bet Nazar will be more successful player than the most of forwards from this draft, no matter who prefer guys like Lambert, Savoie, Lekkerimaki or Cooley. Just because his style of play that works and demanded in NHL. With good play driver - boy, oh boy.