Prospect Info: Ives 2022 Top 100 NHL Draft Rankings (Spring Edition, 2.0)

[StevenToddIves]

Interesting article by a very good writer in Ryan Kennedy about the possible effects on Russian prospects for the 2022 draft:

Will Top Russian NHL Draft Prospects be Impacted by War Consequences?

Ian Kennedy takes a look at some NHL draft prospects that could see their positioning plummet as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent consequences, continue to build.

thehockeynews.com

I've said before that, with the 2nd round pick, the Devils have a chance to get a potential star 1st line winger like Miroshnichenko, Perevalov or Trikozov.

Furthermore, potential top players could fall to the 3rd, 4th rounds or even later -- Neuchev, Koromyslov, Grudinin, Duda, Dolzhenkov, Pelevin. All of these guys are potential high-impact picks.

 

[Nubmer6]

Interesting article by a very good writer in Ryan Kennedy about the possible effects on Russian prospects for the 2022 draft:

Will Top Russian NHL Draft Prospects be Impacted by War Consequences?

Ian Kennedy takes a look at some NHL draft prospects that could see their positioning plummet as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent consequences, continue to build.

thehockeynews.com

I've said before that, with the 2nd round pick, the Devils have a chance to get a potential star 1st line winger like Miroshnichenko, Perevalov or Trikozov.

Furthermore, potential top players could fall to the 3rd, 4th rounds or even later -- Neuchev, Koromyslov, Grudinin, Duda, Dolzhenkov, Pelevin. All of these guys are potential high-impact picks.

I can't possiy imagine the coyotes passing on Miro with all their late 1st rounders. As much as we make fun of them, they're not THAT bad drafting.

 

[John Pedro]

All I want out of this draft is one of Nemec or Jiricek. Jiricek seems like a higher upside guy, would be crazy to have him and Luke, two kids that can take over a game offensively from the blueline. Nemec could also develop a shot like Jack did and become a star producing.. if not at least he'd be a high end Siegenthaler.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I can't possiy imagine the coyotes passing on Miro with all their late 1st rounders. As much as we make fun of them, they're not THAT bad drafting.

I'd have to say that when you're in the bottom half of the league for 8 of 9 drafts with 4 top 10 picks and you're still in the bottom half of the league in terms of prospect quality, then yes -- you're THAT bad at drafting.

My favorites to take Miroshnichenko would have to be Montreal -- who needs top 6 LW talent and has both the Calgary 1st rounder and their own early 2nd rounder -- or Buffalo -- who really stepped up their Russian scouting last year and owns a late 1st round pick from Florida.

As for Arizona, who knows what they're going to do with Carolina and Colorado's 1st round picks? My guess is they'll go off the board as usual. We need to keep in mind it's still largely the same scouting staff as under John Chayka, who is one of the most incompetent GMs in NHL history.

 

[StevenToddIves]

All I want out of this draft is one of Nemec or Jiricek. Jiricek seems like a higher upside guy, would be crazy to have him and Luke, two kids that can take over a game offensively from the blueline. Nemec could also develop a shot like Jack did and become a star producing.. if not at least he'd be a high end Siegenthaler.

I'm currently ranking Jiricek #3 overall, slightly ahead of Nemec at #4 overall. Jiricek is a bit of a unicorn, in that his combination of puck skills, shooting, physicality, skating and defensive acumen give him almost limitless upside. I think he can potentially be one of the best shut-down guys in the league, while also offering intimidating physicality and 50+ point offense. I'm not sure if there's another player like that in the league. Maybe Doughty a few years ago, or Byfuglien before the injuries.

Nemec is the better player right now. He's a superior puck-mover and better in transition, and he's also quite adept defending. His skills are high-end across the board except the shooting, which is average. Siegenthaler is not a good comparable for him at all however. Though I hate comparisons, I'd say the best one for Nemec would be Roman Josi, only without the cannon shot.

These are both terrific prospects, there's no doubt in my mind they will both be NHL top-pairing RD. I prefer Jiricek for the Devils because his skill set would compliment Luke Hughes' just perfectly, they could be a thunder/lightning duo of epic, even historic, upside. But I feel the Devils will have to draft ahead of Philadelphia to get Jiricek, and that's a cause of some concern.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'd have to say that when you're in the bottom half of the league for 8 of 9 drafts with 4 top 10 picks and you're still in the bottom half of the league in terms of prospect quality, then yes -- you're THAT bad at drafting.

My favorites to take Miroshnichenko would have to be Montreal -- who needs top 6 LW talent and has both the Calgary 1st rounder and their own early 2nd rounder -- or Buffalo -- who really stepped up their Russian scouting last year and owns a late 1st round pick from Florida.

As for Arizona, who knows what they're going to do with Carolina and Colorado's 1st round picks? My guess is they'll go off the board as usual. We need to keep in mind it's still largely the same scouting staff as under John Chayka, who is one of the most incompetent GMs in NHL history.

Eh, scouting has been beefed up considerably under Bill Armstrong who only got there in 2020-21. He himself couldn’t participate in the 2020 draft as he came directly from being St Louis’s Director of Amateur Scouting/Assistant GM and was hired right before it.

I think Armstrong and his crew, they got good guys, are going get a great haul.

Edit: fixed

 

[StevenToddIves]

Eh, scouting has been beefed up considerably under Bill Armstrong who only got there in 2020-21. He himself couldn’t participate in the last draft as he came directly from being St Louis’s Director of Amateur Scouting/Assistant GM.

I think Armstrong and his crew, they got good guys, are going get a great haul.

They certainly need a great haul. In the entire organization, I think they have one top-line caliber F in Guenther and one top-pairing caliber D in Chychrun. They have some good 2nd line Fs like Keller and maybe Hayton and Schmaltz, and a pretty good mid-pairing D hopeful in Soderstrom. But after a decade of being awful, that's just a pathetic core. If the Coyotes offered all 6 of those guys for just the Hughes brothers, Fitzgerald would laugh them off the continent.

Shane Wright is more important for Arizona than for any other team. They need a #1 center and a gate attraction and a face for a faceless franchise. But Arizona also has Carolina and Colorado's 1st rounders and 4 picks in the 2nd round. A good 2022 draft can completely turn around the rebuild and set the franchise in a strong direction going forwards. But a poor draft will sink them, irrevocably.

Kudos to Armstrong for collecting so many early picks, however. If it were Chayka, he probably would have traded away picks when they went on a two-game winning streak in November.

 

[nugg]

Yes, Xhekaj was outstanding. I agree.

Danobugeyes.jpeg

 

[StevenToddIves]

Isaac Howard 4 goals and 1 assist in the slaughter vs. Canada today. He's a terrific, two-way feisty LW for a team picking in the late first round. First star of the day, without a doubt.

Second star is Jiri Kulich, who dominated and scored two goals in Czechia's win vs. Germany.

Third star would go to Deivs Rolovs, who was terrific in net in Latvia's 3-2 upset over Sweden.

Honorable mention to Joakim Kemell, with a goal and an assist in Finland's easy win over Switzerland, and to Conor Bedard who was stunning even in Canada's loss to the USA.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Isaac Howard 4 goals and 1 assist in the slaughter vs. Canada today. He's a terrific, two-way feisty LW for a team picking in the late first round. First star of the day, without a doubt.

Second star is Jiri Kulich, who dominated and scored two goals in Czechia's win vs. Germany.

Third star would go to Deivs Rolovs, who was terrific in net in Latvia's 3-2 upset over Sweden.

Honorable mention to Joakim Kemell, with a goal and an assist in Finland's easy win over Switzerland, and to Conor Bedard who was stunning even in Canada's loss to the USA.

How did Matthew Wood look? He’s an interesting prospect to watch for next year.

 

[StevenToddIves]

How did Matthew Wood look? He’s an interesting prospect to watch for next year.

Very promising, though still a work in progress. Keep in mind I'm mostly focusing on 2022 draftees, though admittedly Bedard is tough to take your eyes off of.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Jiri Kulich is another player with a chance to seriously advance his stock at the U-18 Tourney, and after one game (2 goals), he had to open a lot of eyes. I currently have him ranked extraordinarily high at #20, which is his second-best ranking after Smart Scouting's high-water mark of #18. Bafflingly, Kulich's consensus ranking is probably late 1st/early 2nd and the McKenzie scout poll has him at just #40.

I think Kulich is a prospect who is often misunderstood. Is he a center or LW? He's not big 6'0-170 but plays an interior game, everything always funneled to the opposing net. He's not an elite skater but plays with tremendous pace. He lacks a singular elite skill, but offers a combination of several high-end skills which all play each other up. Kulich also plays a mostly-3rd line role -- which limits his scoring -- in the Czech men's league -- which is largely ignored by many draft writers. So, he's sort of gone under the radar a bit in terms of his overall rankings.

Again, I disagree. I'm not ranking a kid in my top 20 unless I'm extremely comfortable with his high-end NHL potential. If he were to fall to the 2nd round, Jiri Kulich would represent a serious steal in that range.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Tonight I watched Flint's 6-3 defeat of Owen Sound. From a sheer entertainment perspective, this was a huge mistake, as North Bay beat Ottawa 7-6 in what must have been a far more exciting game from a fan standpoint.

Owen Sound hung tough for awhile, before allowing four goals in a two-minute span of the 3rd period. They scored two late goals to make it a game again *kind of*, but it's safe to say the better team won tonight.

The standout for Owen Sound was my #92 prospect, Slovakian C/LW Servac Petrovsky. This kid is one of the two or three youngest players in the entire draft and has seriously impressed all year long. He's still growing into his 6'0-175 frame and he's been largely ignored by most draft rankings. I'd say he's a great grab from the 4th round on.

Flint is just a very strong team, top to bottom. Rangers' 2021 1st rounder Brennan Othmann is just a force down low, 2021 Winnipeg 3rd rounder Dmitry Kuzmin is one of the top puck-moving, transition D in the league and 2019 Vancouver Ethan Keppen is just a beast who is uncontainable for the Owen Sound defense. In terms of draft eligibles, my favorite Flint player is certainly Gavin Hayes, a future 3rd line heart-and-soul forechecking maniac who also features some pretty nifty puck skills.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Just finished watching Team USA's 6-2 win over Czechia. A lot to go over, so I'll try to be brief:

Jiri Kulich answered the bell. He had a goal, won battles all game, displaying his scintillating mix of flash and substance. On more than one occasion he turned one-on-twos into high danger scoring chances. He's my #20 overall right now, and I'd say the people ranking him as a mid-2nd rounder need to open their eyes.

LD Tomas Hamara is my #59, and he showed an awful good package of puck skills. He had a bit of trouble with the bigger USA forwards, but I felt he held his own defensively. He had an assist and a nice game.

LD Ales Cech was probably the best Czech defender. The 6'2-190 pounder displayed nice physicality and defensive acuity and a crisp breakout pass. He's pretty much unranked anywhere, but I feel he's a nice pick in the 6th/7th rounds for a team willing to be patient with his development.

C/LW Matyas Sapovaliv had a standout game. He's my #58 for the draft, and the 6'4-190 pound forward can be a force at the NHL level if he builds some more core strength and ups his skating explosiveness. I think he's a great 3rd line prospect who displayed better vision and awareness than I expected against high-level competition, hinting he might have some middle-6 upside.

For the USA, this team is just a machine. The top line saw Logan Cooley between two monster power forwards in Jimmy Snuggerud and Cutter Gauthier, and they just dominated down low. All three had 2-point games and were extremely noticeable every time they hit the ice.

C Rutger McGroarty was outstanding, with two goals. If he were a bit faster on his skates, I think he'd be a top 10 pick, because every other element of his game is simply terrific. As it stands, I think he goes in the #11-#20 range.

Isaac Howard did it again, and boy is this kid lethal with the puck. He's now up to 5 goals in two games, and the U-18 tourney is really upping his draft stock. We know about his shot, but he also made the best pass of the game, with a no-look, behind the back feed right onto a cutting Frank Nazar's tape for a breakaway chance.

The best defender in the game -- and in the tournament -- is Ryan Chesley. He's just a rock on D, he's physical, he's smart, he's competitive as hell, and his shot is a bomb. He's my #12 overall right now, and when I see him ranked in the 2nd round, it's pretty clear that many draft evaluators have no clue what time of defenseman wins NHL hockey games. I'd say he's a good bet to go in the first half of the 1st round.

 

[Guttersniped]

Finland is contributing to the preview of the loaded 2023 with Kasper Halttunen and Tuomas
Uronen.

Aron Kiviharju is 2006 kid for 2024 draft and could win Best Defenseman for this tourney. He’s going to be such a ridiculous godly stud.

Not the most exciting team for 2022 outside of the top couple guys.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Recap of the other three U-18 match-ups:

Finland beat Latvia 4-1, led by Kasper Halttunen's two goals. Halttunen will be a 1st rounder in a loaded 2023 draft. LW Dans Locmelis scored for Latvia, he's a pretty skilled 6'0-170 kid who has a shot to be taken in the 6th/7th rounds.

Sweden bounced back from a huge loss to take Switzerland 6-2. Both Switzerland's goals were scored by small-but-skilled RW Greg Weber, whose scoring abilities might attract a team in the 7th round. The star for Sweden was their best forward, RW Jonathan Lekkerimaki, who scored a pair. Lekkerimaki is a pure goal-scorer with one of the best snipes in the draft, he actually compares fairly well to the more-heralded Joakim Kemell. He's currently #15 overall in my rankings, and could even go as high as the #11-#13 range by a team which covets goal-scoring.

Canada rebounded from a crushing defeat at the hands of the USA to manhandle Germany 8-3. For Germany, Julian Lutz had a heroic 2-goal effort in loss. I love this kid, he's a big, traditional power forward who I have at #40 overall and would be a great fit for the Devils in the 2nd round. For Canada, the star was Conor Bedard, who scored a hat-trick and I don't know what to say about Bedard except he's ridiculous. I feel stupid writing things like "70-goal upside" but it's not unrealistic. He'll go #1 overall in 2023.

 

[StevenToddIves]

For those who aren't yet sick of me crowing about how great Mississauga C Owen Beck is (#23 on my list), this was in overtime, in the playoffs, by an OHL rookie:

 

[Hollywood Nosebleed]

I hope we can somehow, get another 2nd so we can hopefully take one of the Russians kids if they fall, and Owen Beck or two of the Russian kids.

1st round: Slafkovsky, Jiricek, or Gauthier
2nd round: Miro, Perevalov, Trikozov, or Beck
3rd round: Warren
4th round: Sykora
4th round: Petrovsky
4th round or 5th another large goalie

 

[StevenToddIves]

I hope we can somehow, get another 2nd so we can hopefully take one of the Russians kids if they fall, and Owen Beck or two of the Russian kids.

1st round: Slafkovsky, Jiricek, or Gauthier
2nd round: Miro, Perevalov, Trikozov, or Beck
3rd round: Warren
4th round: Sykora
4th round: Petrovsky
4th round or 5th another large goalie

I'm very curious to see where Owen Beck goes in the draft. He's got decent size at 6'0-190, but many NHL front offices prefer their middle-6 Cs to be huge. I think if Owen were 6'2-200 and everything else were exactly the same, he'd be a universally ranked 1st rounder. The McKenzie scout poll -- always the most accurate draft-day indicator -- currently ranks Beck at #39, which is precisely where the Devils will be drafting in the 2022 2nd round (37th, actually). The consensus also has Beck in the #39-#40 range.

People look at Beck's numbers too much, which is why I always caution against "statistics without context" when evaluating draft prospects. Beck finished his rookie OHL season with a solid but not-great 21-30-51 line in 68 games, which I feel leads many stat-based rankings to undervalue him. Will Scouching -- who is the best of the stat-heavy evaluators, but still flawed -- has Beck at #45, while the woefully inaccurate Byron Baders of the world are likely to have him in the 3rd round or later. But if you actually watch Mississauga, it's quite noticeable that the team uses center Luca Del Bel Belluz as the big offense guy and matches up Beck against the opposition's top lines. Del Bel Belluz gets the 1PP time and Beck the 2PP role. Del Bel Belluz gets the team's top winger in James Hardie, while Beck is not playing with high-end linemates.

Owen Beck's hockey IQ, compete level and two-way play rank among the best handful of centers in the 2022 draft. I feel he would be the perfect 3C behind Hughes and Hischier for a decade, because really his upside is as a 2nd line C. As such, he'd be a very good pick in the 2nd round for NJ.

As far as the other possible 2nd round picks you mentioned, I couldn't agree with you more. Though it's more difficult to pinpoint where Miroshnichenko, Perevalov and Trikozov will fall due to the "New Russian Factor", these are all players with 1st line, star potential. All three can play either wing (Miro is a left-shot, Perevalov and Trikozov from the right) and Trikozov can also play some center. I feel a couple of these players will go at the end of the first round to teams with multiple picks -- and thus the ability to take a bit of a gamble -- like Buffalo or Montreal. But if any fall to the Devils at #37 (or thereabouts), they would be a huge steal in that area.

 

[LeedsMonster]

I'd take either Leinonen or Brennan in the 4th round (where the Devils have 3 picks). Leinonen I might be fine with in the 3rd. If both of them go before the Devils can get one, I'd wait to the late rounds and take a flyer on some project goalie, because it's always a good idea to take a goalie every draft.

I like Ivan Zhigalov

 

[StevenToddIves]

I hope we can somehow, get another 2nd so we can hopefully take one of the Russians kids if they fall, and Owen Beck or two of the Russian kids.

1st round: Slafkovsky, Jiricek, or Gauthier
2nd round: Miro, Perevalov, Trikozov, or Beck
3rd round: Warren
4th round: Sykora
4th round: Petrovsky
4th round or 5th another large goalie

As for the later rounds of your idealized list:

3rd: Noah Warren would be a great pick here, and fill a huge organizational need. He's a quick and athletic 6'5 physical, shut-down RD with a bomb of a shot. His McKenzie ranking is currently #59, while I have him at #44. Again, he's going to be sorely under-ranked by the stat guys because he's a defense-first defender. For instance, Scouching does not have him in his top 120, which is a huge oversight which should be seen more critically of Scouching than of Warren.

4th: Sykora, Petrovsky, Goalie: Always a good idea to take a goalie every draft.
Sykora would be a steal here, he barely missed the 2023 draft and he's a high-compete forechecking monster who plays two-ways and possesses 2nd line scoring upside. It's unfathomable to me that he's not in the top 100 of the McKenzie list or the general consensus. My personal (and somewhat bitter) belief is that if he played in the OHL or in Sweden, he'd be considered a borderline first rounder. I currently have him ranked at #35.
Petrovsky is a player I love, but I'd wait a bit on him, as he's been completely unranked by anyone except me. I believe in maximizing draft value, so I'd rather see another bottom-6 C like Ali or Arnsby or a power F prospect like Dolzhenkov or Bourosh or Fleming here, and then hope Petrovsky is a round a bit later. I absolutely agree with you that Petrovsky is a great prospect, and he missed the 2023 draft by days, increasing his sleeper status.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Here's an example of what I would consider a type of high-end and well-balanced, NJ 2022 draft:

1 RD Jiricek/Nemec
2 RW Perevalov/Trikozov
3 RD Warren
4 G Brennan
4 C Ali
4 LW Dolzhenkov
5 C Arnsby
6 LW Jonsson
7 RW Bourosh

In this scenario, the Devils get a franchise RD in the 1st, and then fill out their depth with Warren in the 3rd. We need to keep in mind that RDs will go quickly, and the pickings will get slim after the 3rd round. I'd rather spend the later picks on high-floor/high-ceiling guys then grab "finger-crosser" RDs just to fill out the depth chart.

The Devils second biggest need is, of course, goaltending. But this is considered a thin draft for goalies. I have them using a 4th round pick on Tyler Brennan, who had a rocky draft-eligible season, but is 6'4 and highly athletic. As we all know, sometimes goalies take much longer to develop, and Brennan has a very good skill base to work with.

The Devils third-biggest need is for depth centers. Here I have them using two mid-round picks on terrific defensive centers Ali and Arnsby, who could fall because they're not big point-producers. Ali is a great two-way guy with high-end skating, while Arnsby is more of a hard-hitter, hard-worker IQ guy. They're both terrific bottom 6 prospects, and would jump to #1 and #2 on the Devils prospect center depth chart despite being just mid-round picks.

The Devils fourth-biggest draft need is for interior/power forwards. Here, I have them grabbing 6'7-230 and mobile LW Kirill Dolzhenkov. Is he a project? Sure. But the reward is huge. I also have them grabbing Belarussan beast Daniil Bourosh, who is not huge at 6'1-190 but plays a physical, interior game and has a bomb of a shot -- 28 goals this year. I wouldn't over-draft him, but he'd be a great pick if he fell late.

Of course, every draft I try to grab a couple of high-upside, potential stars. Here, I use the 2nd rounder to take a big-time offensive potential star in falling Russians Perevalov or Trikozov. Then, I try to recapture the Devils Brattified late round magic with Swedish F Joel Jonsson -- and elite passer and puck handler who might get first round love were he not just 5'9-150. But this kid's skill is real, and he plays with courage which belies his small frame. I'd love to find him available late.

 

[LeedsMonster]

Interesting article by a very good writer in Ryan Kennedy about the possible effects on Russian prospects for the 2022 draft:

Will Top Russian NHL Draft Prospects be Impacted by War Consequences?

Ian Kennedy takes a look at some NHL draft prospects that could see their positioning plummet as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent consequences, continue to build.

thehockeynews.com

I've said before that, with the 2nd round pick, the Devils have a chance to get a potential star 1st line winger like Miroshnichenko, Perevalov or Trikozov.

Furthermore, potential top players could fall to the 3rd, 4th rounds or even later -- Neuchev, Koromyslov, Grudinin, Duda, Dolzhenkov, Pelevin. All of these guys are potential high-impact picks.

If we got Jiricek in the first and Miroshnichenko in the second I'd lose it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we got Jiricek in the first and Miroshnichenko in the second I'd lose it.

Me, too.

 

[Guttersniped]

Recap of the other three U-18 match-ups:

Finland beat Latvia 4-1, led by Kasper Halttunen's two goals. Halttunen will be a 1st rounder in a loaded 2023 draft. LW Dans Locmelis scored for Latvia, he's a pretty skilled 6'0-170 kid who has a shot to be taken in the 6th/7th rounds.

Sweden bounced back from a huge loss to take Switzerland 6-2. Both Switzerland's goals were scored by small-but-skilled RW Greg Weber, whose scoring abilities might attract a team in the 7th round. The star for Sweden was their best forward, RW Jonathan Lekkerimaki, who scored a pair. Lekkerimaki is a pure goal-scorer with one of the best snipes in the draft, he actually compares fairly well to the more-heralded Joakim Kemell. He's currently #15 overall in my rankings, and could even go as high as the #11-#13 range by a team which covets goal-scoring.

Canada rebounded from a crushing defeat at the hands of the USA to manhandle Germany 8-3. For Germany, Julian Lutz had a heroic 2-goal effort in loss. I love this kid, he's a big, traditional power forward who I have at #40 overall and would be a great fit for the Devils in the 2nd round. For Canada, the star was Conor Bedard, who scored a hat-trick and I don't know what to say about Bedard except he's ridiculous. I feel stupid writing things like "70-goal upside" but it's not unrealistic. He'll go #1 overall in 2023.

Öslund vs Öhgren is a more interesting question to me, we kind of know what Lekkerimäki is (at least comparatively).