Prospect Info: Ives 2022 Top 100 NHL Draft Rankings (Spring Edition, 2.0)

[Tao Jersey Jones]

We can’t draft the other Jack Hughes, it would tear a hole in the space-time continuum.

That's why Jack Quinn was never an option.

 

[glenwo2]

Anyone looking for potential draft-day steals, this list is a good reference.

Just so you guys have an idea of where I differ from the consensus, I wanted to provide another short list for you:

STI 1st rounders who are not 1st rounders according to the consensus:
23. C Owen Beck
28. LD Arseni Koromyslov
30. RD Sam Rinzel
31. LW Reid Schaefer

STI 2nd rounders who are later picks according to the consensus:
35. LW Adam Sykora
37. LW Viktor Neuchev
39. C Logan Morrison
44. RD Noah Warren
48. LW Kirill Dolzhenkov
50. LW Joel Jonsson
51. LW Mikey Milne
54. C Alex Kaskimaki
60. LD Tomas Hamara

STI 3rd rounders who are largely ignored by the consensus
67. LD Jackson Edward
68. LW Alex Bump
70. LW Dylan James
71. RW Daniil Bourosh
77. RW Maddox Fleming
87. RW Evan Konyen
91. LW Beau Jelsma
92. LW Servac Petrovsky
93. C Liam Arnsby
95. LW Michael La Starza

Using that criteria, I'm guessing Bratt was in the "did not know he even existed" consensus back in 2016.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Our "drafting bugaboo" has been worse than not taking high-skill types. I can't explain it. It's almost as if a certain scout gets "a guy" without context of 1. where the player should be drafted; 2. what the player's abilities are; and 3. what position the player plays.

How to explain the 4th through 6th round picks in 2020? 4th rounder Ethan Edwards looks like a pretty decent prospect, but he wasn't exactly a "high-upside" guy and he was a LD. The 7 picks after this included a RD with more upside than Edwards (Villeneuve, TOR), maybe the top F in the Habs current prospect pool (Farrell), a forward who many ranked in the first round (Tullio, EDM), and a F who certainly goes first round in a 2020 re-draft (Chromiak, LA). Edwards is currently the #8 LD in the Devils prospect pool.

In the 5th round, the Devils went completely off the board and took C Artem Shlaine, a raw, two-way center prospect with maybe 4th line upside. Shlaine has combined for 26 points in his first two years of NCAA play. Two picks later, division rival Philadelphia took more well-rounded two-way center Elliot Desnoyers, who I listed several times as a big draft sleeper. In two QMJHL seasons since he's been drafted, Desnoyers has 122 points in 92 games. Desnoyers is currently the best center prospect in the Flyers system, while Shlaine could not crack a top 25 Devils prospect list.

Is the Shlaine pick bad scouting? Well, obviously, but I believe it runs deeper than that. Because there's no way you can convince me a room full of scouts sat around a table and agreed Shlaine was a better center prospect than Desnoyers. I mean, this is what these guys do for a living. It's like getting a room full of music critics, and they vote that Creed was a better rock band than The Clash. It just wouldn't happen.

Even if the Devils were sour on Desnoyers for some reason, there were several "upside" Fs available like Berard, Ovchinnikov, Oksentyuk. Not even to mention there were still quality RDs available -- Puutio and Persson.

The 6th round was the capper, because the Devils took an over-age, 5'9, soft perimeter center from the Swiss league in Benjamin Baumgartner who didn't score much or play much defense. If there was a 2020 re-draft and you expanded to 10 rounds and 310 picks? Baumgartner still would not be drafted. I can't even to imagine the reasoning for the pick. Again, the Devils passed on high-upside forwards (Miettinen, Oksentyuk) and RD (Persson). If you're just going to throw a dart there with a blindfold on, at least take a goalie, right?

I'm not trying to put down current management on the whole, because I've said time and time again that Fitzgerald has done a sparkling job overall. But his big area of improvement needs to be the draft. While he's done exceptionally well in the early 1st round (Holtz, Mercer, Hughes), he's failed to maximize later 1st round picks (Mukhamadullin and Stillman would have been good picks had he traded down and collected more assets first), and the late round picks have been downright baffling. He needs to go back to whatever strategies Shero was employing when 5th/6th round picks resulted in Bratt and Gritsyuk and Moynihan. Last year, the Devils again blew the 5th/6th rounds with another LD in Vilen and a -- though finally a RD, one we can't even be sure is a prospect anymore in over-aged and not-good-at-hockey-but-big Viktor Hurtig.

I can analyze this stuff all day, and it's not meant as harping or venting, but rather a sincere desire to draft with vision and strategy all throughout the draft. The Devils have, in 2022, three 4th round picks, then one in the 5th, 6th, and 7th. If the Devils are not isolating areas and player types of need and strategizing what players could be available with those picks, there's a problem. If they are giving individual scouts "their guy" as a reward for hard work without a universal scouting vision, there's a problem.

As Fitzgerald has steadily improved as one of the up-and-coming GM talents in the NHL, I believe this singular problematic area will be fixed this year.

Really appreciate the detailed response!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Using that criteria, I'm guessing Bratt was in the "did not know he even existed" consensus back in 2016.

I had Bratt ranked as an early 3rd round pick, which was higher than the consensus. I had Gritsyuk ranked in the 70s, which also was higher than the consensus. As such, I was thrilled with both picks when they were made by the Devils. NJ did a spectacular job drafting in the late rounds under Shero, I'd even go so far as to say the best in the NHL.

 

[Oneiro]

Footage from the Jiricek prospect thread. Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see but even here, he looks like he's improved and cleaned up his game a bit since being injured.

Sometimes these kids can just make pretty big jumps in the span of a few months. Damn, I miss that teenage neuroplasticity.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Footage from the Jiricek prospect thread. Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see but even here, he looks like he's improved and cleaned up his game a bit since being injured.

Sometimes these kids can just make pretty big jumps in the span of a few months. Damn, I miss that teenage neuroplasticity.

I'm thrilled by how quick Jiricek looks so soon after the injury.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Just a reminder that the Devils could likely draft 6'7-240 LW Kirill Dolzhenkov in the 3rd round. Rocket shot and shockingly soft hands, but unsurprisingly a bit below-average speed and agility. Can arm-wrestle a gorilla.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Devils also have a shot in the 3rd round at LW Reid Schaefer, who may be the toughest power forward in the draft, with a lot of Tom Wilson elements to his game. Here's the highlights of a 2 goal, 2 assist performance vs. Tri-City towards the end of the season, where you can see his sick shot, soft hands and good decision making with the puck.

 

[Devs3cups]

Just went for a look on the Flyers draft thread. From what I saw, most believe they’ll go high skill forward. That would be massive for us.

 

[Nubmer6]

Just a reminder that the Devils could likely draft 6'7-240 LW Kirill Dolzhenkov in the 3rd round. Rocket shot and shockingly soft hands, but unsurprisingly a bit below-average speed and agility. Can arm-wrestle a gorilla.

I can arm-wrestle a gorilla too.

I just wouldn't win.

Or come away from it still possessing both arms.

 

[Hisch13r]

Just went for a look on the Flyers draft thread. From what I saw, most believe they’ll go high skill forward. That would be massive for us.

I unfortunately don't think it'll end up mattering. As it stands we're looking at a 30% chance at 6th. We're not catching Philly. They're as bad or worse than Arizona. We're tied with Chicago but we have the tiebreaker and they're dropping like crazy. We'd need to end up flipping with Chicago again to have a real chance at one of them. That would give us a 21.6% at 5 and 44.4% at 6. I think there's a really outside chance at 7 if say the top 4 goes Wright, Cooley, Slaf and Nemec/Jiricek. Then Philly goes Nazar, and Columbus goes like Savoie. Currently we have an 11.5% chance of 8th and there's no chance there. We're also 2 back of Ottawa (they have tiebreaker at least) and we have a head to head with them.

 

[Devs3cups]

I unfortunately don't think it'll end up mattering. As it stands we're looking at a 30% chance at 6th. We're not catching Philly. They're as bad or worse than Arizona. We're tied with Chicago but we have the tiebreaker and they're dropping like crazy. We'd need to end up flipping with Chicago again to have a real chance at one of them. That would give us a 21.6% at 5 and 44.4% at 6. I think there's a really outside chance at 7 if say the top 4 goes Wright, Cooley, Slaf and Nemec/Jiricek. Then Philly goes Nazar, and Columbus goes like Savoie. Currently we have an 11.5% chance of 8th and there's no chance there. We're also 2 back of Ottawa (they have tiebreaker at least) and we have a head to head with them.

You might be right, I’m keeping the faith though haha! Honestly, this team shouldn’t be drafting this high. We aren’t as bad as our record shows and we would probably be drafting more in the 12-15 range with normal goaltending. Adding a top-6/7 prospect is a blessing at this point imo. We’re getting a good player regardless. Jiricek/Nemec would be the goal though.

 

[Hisch13r]

You might be right, I’m keeping the faith though haha! Honestly, this team shouldn’t be drafting this high. We aren’t as bad as our record shows and we would probably be drafting more in the 12-15 range with normal goaltending. Adding a top-6/7 prospect is a blessing at this point imo. We’re getting a good player regardless. Jiricek/Nemec would be the goal though.

It's really annoying that the goaltending had to come alive on this trip. Pick up 7 of 10 pts on this trip while missing our best offensive and defensive player because we might have gotten our best 5 game goaltending stretch of the year. I'd honestly be looking to trade up if we can to get Jiricek or Nemec. Throw all the late round picks at some team. It's not like Fitz will do anything worthwhile with them judging his track record.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Just went for a look on the Flyers draft thread. From what I saw, most believe they’ll go high skill forward. That would be massive for us.

I don't see it.

Let's do a little experiment. Let's look at the Flyers positional depth chart and prospect pool, and hold that up against the players likely to be considered where the Flyers look to pick at #3-#6 overall.

First, we'll rule out LD and G, since there is no one worthy of drafting so high. So, we're down to 4 positions.

Right Defense: The Flyers have -- for some reason -- Rasmus Ristolainen signed through 2027. They also have Ryan Eliis signed through 2027. They have one pretty good prospect in Ronnie Attard and that's it. There's a definite need here, and Nemec and Jiricek -- in particular -- are both player types the current Flyers management seem to covet.

LW: The brightest young Flyers forward is likely Joel Farabee, signed through 2028. The best prospect is Isaac Ratcliffe, likely a bottom 6 type, and there's not much in the pool. With Slafkovsky likely gone in the top 3, that leaves Gauthier and Yurov -- two players who would appeal to the Flyers management, but likely not be considered top 6 picks by many NHL GMs for other reasons, especially if Nemec or Jiricek were still on the board.

RW: Deepest position for the Flyers by far -- loaded with young talent at NHL/prospect levels with Brink, Konecny, Tippet in NHL and Foerster/Tuomaala/Wisdom on the way. They're also stuck with Cam Atkinson's deal until 2025. This would seem to lower the possibility they would take Kemell or Nazar or Lambert.

C: Here's the big question for the Flyers. They have two Cs signed for the foreseeable future in Couturier and Hayes, but by the end of those deals Couturier is a 2C and Hayes a 3C. Philly's best prospect at the position is Elliott Desnoyers, a good 3rd line prospect with some 2nd line upside. So, we cannot rule out Cooley as being their target, though Savoie is certainly not a player-type the current Flyers management seems to covet.

Ultimately, I'll say the Flyers would take Slafkovsky if he's available where they pick, but he probably won't be. After that, I'd say their choice would be between Jiricek, Nemec and Cooley. In the most likely top 3 scenario of Wright/Slafkovsky/Cooley, the Flyers picking at #4 or #5 or #6 would take Jiricek or Nemec, with Jiricek seeming more like their preferred player type. At #7 or later -- though it's looking like they're picking higher -- I'd say the options would expand to include Gauthier and Yurov, or maybe Geekie.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It's really annoying that the goaltending had to come alive on this trip. Pick up 7 of 10 pts on this trip while missing our best offensive and defensive player because we might have gotten our best 5 game goaltending stretch of the year. I'd honestly be looking to trade up if we can to get Jiricek or Nemec. Throw all the late round picks at some team. It's not like Fitz will do anything worthwhile with them judging his track record.

Late round picks don't help you move up in the top 10, unfortunately.

I was not thrilled with the win tonight, and I agree with you the Devils Jiricek/Nemec hopes seem to be fading. Seattle, Philly and Columbus are all teams with big needs at RD, and the "best available player" conversation will have to be including both Jiricek and Nemec from pick #2 on.

If the season ended today, the Devils most likely draft position would be #7 overall, where there would be virtually no chance of Jiricek or Nemec by the looks of things.

A mock draft today, which most experts would find at least moderately logical, could look like this:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Cooley
4 PHI Jiricek
5 CLB Nemec
6 NJ ???

Even if Seattle were to pass on Cooley for one of the RD, there's no way Cooley gets past Columbus at #5, so it would be the same 5 guys going. I can't see any other player sneaking in with those particular teams ahead of us. In this scenario, my guess would be the Devils bite the bullet and take Cutter Gauthier at #6, and I wouldn't rule out Ryan Chesley, as the current Devils management seems to be very adverse to trading down on draft day and if they decide they want a RD in round one, gosh darn it they'll get one! much in the same way they took Mukhamadullin with teams looking to trade up in 2020 and then Stillman with several possible trade-down scenarios in 2021.

 

[Hisch13r]

Late round picks don't help you move up in the top 10, unfortunately.

I was not thrilled with the win tonight, and I agree with you the Devils Jiricek/Nemec hopes seem to be fading. Seattle, Philly and Columbus are all teams with big needs at RD, and the "best available player" conversation will have to be including both Jiricek and Nemec from pick #2 on.

If the season ended today, the Devils most likely draft position would be #7 overall, where there would be virtually no chance of Jiricek or Nemec by the looks of things.

A mock draft today, which most experts would find at least moderately logical, could look like this:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Cooley
4 PHI Jiricek
5 CLB Nemec
6 NJ ???

Even if Seattle were to pass on Cooley for one of the RD, there's no way Cooley gets past Columbus at #5, so it would be the same 5 guys going. I can't see any other player sneaking in with those particular teams ahead of us. In this scenario, my guess would be the Devils bite the bullet and take Cutter Gauthier at #6, and I wouldn't rule out Ryan Chesley, as the current Devils management seems to be very adverse to trading down on draft day and if they decide they want a RD in round one, gosh darn it they'll get one! much in the same way they took Mukhamadullin with teams looking to trade up in 2020 and then Stillman with several possible trade-down scenarios in 2021.

I mean it wouldn't just be late rounders. I don't think Nemec to Columbus would be a lock.

 

[Guttersniped]

We have dueling draft threads but putting this in the newer one.



Because the CHL playoffs drinks this team’s milkshake in April it’s definitely missing some notable players.

Top 2022 Draft Eligible Players Listed (subjective)
Defense
Owen Pickering LHD (WHL)
Forwards
Pano Fimis C (OHL)
David Goyette C (OHL)
Rieger Lorenz C (AJHL)

The other notable (in various degrees) 2022 draft eligible players:
Defense
Michael Mastrodomenico RHD (USHL)
Grayden Siepmann RHD (WHL)
Spencer Sova LHD (OHL)
Forwards
Joshua Davies C (WHL)
Kocha Delia C (OHL)
Josh Filmon F (WHL)
Nick Moldenhauser C/RW (USHL)
Brayden Schuurman F (WHL)
Matthew Ward F (WHL)
Goaltenders
Reid Dyck G (WHL)
Nolan Lalonde G (OHL)

Also eligible:
Defense
Nolan Collins RHD (OHL)
Matthew Morden LHD (CAHS)
Forward
Connor Hvidston F (WHL)
Goaltenders
Ethan Buenaventura G (WHL)

 

[Guttersniped]

Here’s Sweden:



Top fellas:
Defense
Mattias Hävelid RHD
Calle Odelius LHD
Elias Pettersson LHD
Elias Salomonsson RHD
Forward
Jonathan Lakkerimaki C
Liam Öhgren LW
Noah Östlund C
Fabian Wagner RW

Also Notable:
Forwards
Tim Almgren C
Linus Hemström RW
Rasmus Rudslätt RW
Goalies
Hugo Hävelid G

Also Eligible:
Defense
Hugo Fransson LHD
Dennis Good Bogg LHD
Jakob Norén LHD
Forwards
Isac Born F
Oscar Pettersson RW
Alexander Tell LW
Goalies
Lukas Swedin G
Alexander Hellnemo G

 

[Guttersniped]

And Finland:



Note: the ranking system is very loose (because what the hell do I know), and for all practical purposes basically useless, but I stuck with it.:

Tippy Top:
Defense
Otto Salin RHD
Forwards
Aleksanteri Kaskimäki C
Joakim Kemell RW
Jani Nyman LW
Goalies
Topias Leinonen G

Also Notable
Defense
Kasper Kulonummi RHD
Elmeri Laakso LHD
Forwards
Otto Hokkanen C/W
Kasper Lundell F
Topi Rönni C
Goalies
Niklas Kokko G

Also Eligible:
Defense
Thomas Grönland LHD
Otto Heinonen LHD
Forwards
Samu Bau F
Jere Lassila C
Tommi Männistö RW
Lauri Raiman C/W
Oskari Vuorio C

 

[StevenToddIves]

I mean it wouldn't just be late rounders. I don't think Nemec to Columbus would be a lock.

Here's a mini-Columbus draft preview. Again, I'll leave out LD and G, because there are none who I could reasonably foresee being a strong consideration for the top 8 overall.

RD: at the pro level, CBJ has a talented young, middle-pair offensive type in Adam Boqvist and a talented young middle-pair shut-down type in Andrew Peeke. In the prospect pool, they have a talented, two-way middle-pair type in Corson Ceulemans, who is probably their #3 prospect right now after only Johnson and Svozil. Though not an area of what we would call *need*, either Jiricek or Nemec would immediately jump to the top of the list here, and thus the Blue Jackets could be a candidate to draft them.

LW: At the pro level there's obviously Laine. Kent Johnson is listed as a center, but many -- including myself -- believe his NHL future is more likely on the LW. In the prospect pool there's literally nothing. They will have no chance at Slafkovsky, as the Blue Jackets are not moving up as high as #3 and if this pick wins either #1 or #2 overall in the lottery it returns to Chicago. I don't see Columbus drafting a LW.

RW: at the pro level there's Bjorkstrand, Voracek and Chinakov, whom Columbus management is very high on. Of course, Voracek does not have too many years left. But again, the prospect pool is barren. I'd have to think with a pick in the #4 to #7 range the Blue Jackets would at least consider any of Kemell, Nazar, Lambert. Yurov plays both wings, so he could be a consideration as well.

C: One would have to say this would be Columbus' top wish. Sillinger is the most talented player in the organization, but we're still not sure if he projects to a 1C or 2C. Roslovic is pretty much a 3rd liner at this point, and again, there's nothing in the prospect pool unless Johnson stays at center. I think they'd take Cooley over anyone, were he available at #4 or #5. I do not think Savoie would be a consideration -- one of the understated truths about Columbus' draft tendencies is that they draft for size -- especially early -- as much as any team int he NHL aside from perhaps Ottawa. The last sub-6'0 player they took in the first two rounds was 5'10 Gilbert Brule way back in 2005.

I do think Columbus could go with Geekie early, and it's important to consider that GM Jarmo Kekkalainen is not afraid to go off the board, as he did with Chinakov in 2019. He's also not afraid to go down the board a bit for a big center, as he did with Pierre-Luc Dubois fairly recently in 2016. So, Marco Kasper or Rutger McGroarty would not be impossibilities in the top 10 for Columbus.

Also, we have to ask the question whether the Blue Jackets scouting considers Lambert a C or a RW.

So ultimately, we can conclude that Columbus is not drafting 1-3. At 4 or 5, I'd guess their top wish would be for Cooley, who would be unlikely to fall so far. I'd cross Savoie and Kemell off my list here, due to the size thing, and additionally with Kemell that he might be a bit redundant to what Laine offers.

I'd give high odds to (in no order) Lambert, Geekie, Jiricek, Nemec and perhaps Yurov with Nazar as a very dark horse. I'd say if all of those players were available, they would take Jiricek -- who would jump to the top of their RD depth chart in short order and offers the size/physicality which seem to define the Blue Jackets traditional style of play.

 

[StevenToddIves]

And Finland:



Note: the ranking system is very loose (because what the hell do I know), and for all practical purposes basically useless, but I stuck with it.:

Tippy Top:
Defense
Otto Salin RHD
Forwards
Aleksanteri Kaskimäki C
Joakim Kemell RW
Jani Nyman LW
Goalies
Topias Leinonen G

Also Notable
Defense
Kasper Kulonummi RHD
Elmeri Laakso LHD
Forwards
Otto Hokkanen C/W
Kasper Lundell F
Topi Rönni C
Goalies
Niklas Kokko G

Also Eligible:
Defense
Thomas Grönland LHD
Otto Heinonen LHD
Forwards
Samu Bau F
Jere Lassila C
Tommi Männistö RW
Lauri Raiman C/W
Oskari Vuorio C

I'd say on Canada, the guy I'd have my eye on the most is C Pano Fimis, who could fall to the 4th round range and immediately jump to the top of the Devils prospect rankings at C. Rieger Lorenz would make sense as a rangy and skilled middle-6 LW with upside, but I feel he'll go in the 2nd and the Devils will have more apropos options there. If Siepmann falls to the 5th or 6th rounds, he's a RD who is a pretty good puck mover, but I wouldn't really call him a Fitzgerald-type.

With Sweden, Ostlund is the one guy I'd pay attention to the most, especially if the size thing drops him to the 3rd round. He's a center with tons of speed and playmaking ability, and I really high hockey IQ. I love the kid. I'd worry a bit about Salomonsson, because he's one of those high-talent, size/speed but low IQ players who are especially scary on defense. If the Devils took him in the 2nd round, I'd be pretty upset despite his high ceiling, because there will be far better RD options there like Rinzel, Warren and perhaps Luneau.

Finland is where it gets really interesting. Kaskimaki would be a great -- and extremely speedy -- 3C, and Ronni is also a good potential option there. These would both be players to jump to the top of the Devils prospect pool at C and both are likely 3rd/4th round picks. Also, Kulonummi is a underrated RD for the 4th round on, and Leinonen could arguably be the best goalie in the draft. Hokkanen is another center I like for the 6th/7th rounds. Also of interest should be 6'3 power LW Jani Nyman, a crease crashing beast who I ranked #46 overall -- he's exactly the type of player the Devils need, the only question being whether he's a bottom 6 guy or has 2nd line upside. I'd consider Nyman in the 2nd, and I'd jump on him in the 3rd.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'd say on Canada, the guy I'd have my eye on the most is C Pano Fimis, who could fall to the 4th round range and immediately jump to the top of the Devils prospect rankings at C. Rieger Lorenz would make sense as a rangy and skilled middle-6 LW with upside, but I feel he'll go in the 2nd and the Devils will have more apropos options there. If Siepmann falls to the 5th or 6th rounds, he's a RD who is a pretty good puck mover, but I wouldn't really call him a Fitzgerald-type.

With Sweden, Ostlund is the one guy I'd pay attention to the most, especially if the size thing drops him to the 3rd round. He's a center with tons of speed and playmaking ability, and I really high hockey IQ. I love the kid. I'd worry a bit about Salomonsson, because he's one of those high-talent, size/speed but low IQ players who are especially scary on defense. If the Devils took him in the 2nd round, I'd be pretty upset despite his high ceiling, because there will be far better RD options there like Rinzel, Warren and perhaps Luneau.

Finland is where it gets really interesting. Kaskimaki would be a great -- and extremely speedy -- 3C, and Ronni is also a good potential option there. These would both be players to jump to the top of the Devils prospect pool at C and both are likely 3rd/4th round picks. Also, Kulonummi is a underrated RD for the 4th round on, and Leinonen could arguably be the best goalie in the draft. Hokkanen is another center I like for the 6th/7th rounds. Also of interest should be 6'3 power LW Jani Nyman, a crease crashing beast who I ranked #46 overall -- he's exactly the type of player the Devils need, the only question being whether he's a bottom 6 guy or has 2nd line upside. I'd consider Nyman in the 2nd, and I'd jump on him in the 3rd.

I assume Leinonen is the first goalie in the draft to go off the board, just going by his numbers and him being 6’5” and 216.

Brennan isn’t much smaller, but I don’t see GMs overlooking his not so great numbers and picking him first.

There aren’t even that many bigger goalies ranked, so guys with size will likely go early. Then the draft will either be shockingly light on goalies or teams will have to not be such size queens and/or dig up more obscure big goalies (we do the latter lol).

 

[StevenToddIves]

I assume Leinonen is the first goalie in the draft to go off the board, just going by his numbers and him being 6’5” and 216.

Brennan isn’t much smaller, but I don’t see GMs overlooking his not so great numbers and picking him first.

There aren’t even that many bigger goalies ranked, so guys with size will likely go early. Then the draft will either be shockingly light on goalies or teams will have to not be such size queens and/or dig up more obscure big goalies (we do the latter lol).

I'd take either Leinonen or Brennan in the 4th round (where the Devils have 3 picks). Leinonen I might be fine with in the 3rd. If both of them go before the Devils can get one, I'd wait to the late rounds and take a flyer on some project goalie, because it's always a good idea to take a goalie every draft.

 

[tunnelvision]

Here's a mini-Columbus draft preview. Again, I'll leave out LD and G, because there are none who I could reasonably foresee being a strong consideration for the top 8 overall.

RD: at the pro level, CBJ has a talented young, middle-pair offensive type in Adam Boqvist and a talented young middle-pair shut-down type in Andrew Peeke. In the prospect pool, they have a talented, two-way middle-pair type in Corson Ceulemans, who is probably their #3 prospect right now after only Johnson and Svozil. Though not an area of what we would call *need*, either Jiricek or Nemec would immediately jump to the top of the list here, and thus the Blue Jackets could be a candidate to draft them.

LW: At the pro level there's obviously Laine. Kent Johnson is listed as a center, but many -- including myself -- believe his NHL future is more likely on the LW. In the prospect pool there's literally nothing. They will have no chance at Slafkovsky, as the Blue Jackets are not moving up as high as #3 and if this pick wins either #1 or #2 overall in the lottery it returns to Chicago. I don't see Columbus drafting a LW.

RW: at the pro level there's Bjorkstrand, Voracek and Chinakov, whom Columbus management is very high on. Of course, Voracek does not have too many years left. But again, the prospect pool is barren. I'd have to think with a pick in the #4 to #7 range the Blue Jackets would at least consider any of Kemell, Nazar, Lambert. Yurov plays both wings, so he could be a consideration as well.

C: One would have to say this would be Columbus' top wish. Sillinger is the most talented player in the organization, but we're still not sure if he projects to a 1C or 2C. Roslovic is pretty much a 3rd liner at this point, and again, there's nothing in the prospect pool unless Johnson stays at center. I think they'd take Cooley over anyone, were he available at #4 or #5. I do not think Savoie would be a consideration -- one of the understated truths about Columbus' draft tendencies is that they draft for size -- especially early -- as much as any team int he NHL aside from perhaps Ottawa. The last sub-6'0 player they took in the first two rounds was 5'10 Gilbert Brule way back in 2005.

I do think Columbus could go with Geekie early, and it's important to consider that GM Jarmo Kekkalainen is not afraid to go off the board, as he did with Chinakov in 2019. He's also not afraid to go down the board a bit for a big center, as he did with Pierre-Luc Dubois fairly recently in 2016. So, Marco Kasper or Rutger McGroarty would not be impossibilities in the top 10 for Columbus.

Also, we have to ask the question whether the Blue Jackets scouting considers Lambert a C or a RW.

So ultimately, we can conclude that Columbus is not drafting 1-3. At 4 or 5, I'd guess their top wish would be for Cooley, who would be unlikely to fall so far. I'd cross Savoie and Kemell off my list here, due to the size thing, and additionally with Kemell that he might be a bit redundant to what Laine offers.

I'd give high odds to (in no order) Lambert, Geekie, Jiricek, Nemec and perhaps Yurov with Nazar as a very dark horse. I'd say if all of those players were available, they would take Jiricek -- who would jump to the top of their RD depth chart in short order and offers the size/physicality which seem to define the Blue Jackets traditional style of play.

Thanks for doing this, I think it's a very good breakdown of our prospect pool/depth chart and prediction of what to expect from Kekalainen/CBJ scouting staff at this year's draft. However, I'd like to add and fix a couple of things:

- Most fans would probably agree that CBJ's top prospect group includes forwards Johnson, Voronkov and Marchenko, defensemen Ceulemans and Svozil, goalie Tarasov alongside some other names (Foudy, Pyyhtia, Knazko, Richard) but it seems there is no clear consensus on the order of top 5-8. I feel Svozil is still very underrated among Columbus reporters.

- 2018 2nd round LW/RW Kirill Marchenko is a name you left out and he is coming over for next season. We don't know yet if he'll stay in Columbus all season or start with the AHL club. Nonetheless he's a winger with top 6 talent.

- Nobody seems to know what's going on with the 2018 1st rounder Liam Foudy lately, and what to think of his upside at this point. He's been in the AHL this season, got hurt in late January and hasn't played since. No reports on his injury status. I liked his play in the preseason, I think there's still middle six potential in him. I guess he can play both C and W, but yeah, not a real top 6 C we desperately need.

- F prospect Mikael Pyyhtia was a 4th round pick in 2020 that no one was really paying attention to until this year. He's currently having a huge season in Liiga, playing on the top line wing of his team that is now competing for championship in Liiga finals. So far he has scored 8-5-13 in 13 playoff games. Probably at least 1-2 years from making the team in Columbus and the future is still hard to project, but if he pans out eventually I guess he could play at wing on the 2nd/3rd/4th line.

- Very interesting observation that they have rarely drafted <6'0 players in the first two rounds, I've actually never thought of that. They took 5'11 Marko Dano in 2013 with the 27th overall pick, but it was still at the time Paul Castron was leading the amateur scouting of CBJ. After that summer Kekalainen brought Siren and rest of his old scouting buddies from St. Louis to run the show, and to this day they've been in charge. And yes, as you pointed out they haven't drafted small players with high picks.

- Edit: I forgot Dmitri Voronkov, 21-year old center playing in the KHL for Ak-Bars Kazan. Contract with Kazan is through 2022-23, people say he will arrive in Columbus for 2023-24. Very strong, big, Jordan Staal -type C. He was a 1C/2C at the olympics for Team ROC but I think most people see him as a 3C in the NHL.

Despite the fact most of us want more C's and RD's in the 1st round than players of other positions, at the end of the day Kekalainen might still surprise us all and snag a winger with our 1st, which now seems to fall in the 5-7 range. Especially if all of Nemec, Jiricek, Wright and Cooley are gone at that point.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thanks for doing this, I think it's a very good breakdown of our prospect pool/depth chart and prediction of what to expect from Kekalainen/CBJ scouting staff at this year's draft. However, I'd like to add and fix a couple of things:

- Most fans would probably agree that CBJ's top prospect group includes forwards Johnson, Voronkov and Marchenko, defensemen Ceulemans and Svozil, goalie Tarasov alongside some other names (Foudy, Pyyhtia, Knazko, Richard) but it seems there is no clear consensus on the order of top 5-8. I feel Svozil is still very underrated among Columbus reporters.

- 2018 2nd round LW/RW Kirill Marchenko is a name you left out and he is coming over for next season. We don't know yet if he'll stay in Columbus all season or start with the AHL club. Nonetheless he's a winger with top 6 talent.

- Nobody seems to know what's going on with the 2018 1st rounder Liam Foudy lately, and what to think of his upside at this point. He's been in the AHL this season, got hurt in late January and hasn't played since. No reports on his injury status. I liked his play in the preseason, I think there's still middle six potential in him. I guess he can play both C and W, but yeah, not a real top 6 C we desperately need.

- F prospect Mikael Pyyhtia was a 4th round pick in 2020 that no one was really paying attention to until this year. He's currently having a huge season in Liiga, playing on the top line wing of his team that is now competing for championship in Liiga finals. So far he has scored 8-5-13 in 13 playoff games. Probably at least 1-2 years from making the team in Columbus and the future is still hard to project, but if he pans out eventually I guess he could play at wing on the 2nd/3rd/4th line.

- Very interesting observation that they have rarely drafted <6'0 players in the first two rounds, I've actually never thought of that. They took 5'11 Marko Dano in 2013 with the 27th overall pick, but it was still at the time Paul Castron was leading the amateur scouting of CBJ. After that summer Kekalainen brought Siren and rest of his old scouting buddies from St. Louis to run the show, and to this day they've been in charge. And yes, as you pointed out they haven't drafted small players with high picks.

- Edit: I forgot Dmitri Voronkov, 21-year old center playing in the KHL for Ak-Bars Kazan. Contract with Kazan is through 2022-23, people say he will arrive in Columbus for 2023-24. Very strong, big, Jordan Staal -type C. He was a 1C/2C at the olympics for Team ROC but I think most people see him as a 3C in the NHL.

Despite the fact most of us want more C's and RD's in the 1st round than players of other positions, at the end of the day Kekalainen might still surprise us all and snag a winger with our 1st, which now seems to fall in the 5-7 range. Especially if all of Nemec, Jiricek, Wright and Cooley are gone at that point.

Thanks for this. And I agree with you on Svozil -- I had him as a top 20 pick last year and consider him your #2 prospect this year after only Johnson. I think he'll be a smart, all-situations shut-down D with the capability of topping 40 points with some regularity. I'm immensely high on the kid.