I'm a big fan of Gleb and Perevalov but even apart from the Russians you have tons of interesting players in that 15-50 area that are all over the place in rankings. I've seen Ostlund, Kulich and Mesar ranked as high as top 15 on some lists and well into the 2nd round on others. I've seen the USNTDP players being ranked all over the place apart from Cooley/Gauthier/Nazar. Guys like Firkus and Gaucher and intriguing forwards that are ranked anywhere from early 20s to mid 2nd round. Not to mention a ton of defensemen littered throughout like Rinzel, Bischel, Lundeau, Nelson, Kyrou, Odelius, Pickering, etc...
It's a very deep class and some players are going to fall further than people think and teams are going to get some good prospects well into the 2nd and even 3rd rounds of this class. I'd love for the Devils to acquire another 2nd rounder in this draft and really load up the farm.
Great post here, I absolutely agree.
I'd like to add to your points by isolating the players you mentioned and estimating their likely draft positions. Though there are always surprises -- for crying out loud Ottawa took Boucher at #10 last year and Montreal took Mailloux in the 1st round -- I do study the individual teams' drafting tendencies and each and every draft.
Kulich: I'm particularly biased here because I was possibly the first dude to laud him as a top 20 pick, his dominant performance at the U-18 tourney skyrocketed his stock. The sad fact is, several North American draft writers are simply too lazy to find feeds of Czech league games. NHL teams have seen him, and they know how good he is. He won't get past the 1st round.
Mesar: a dynamic offensive talent with high-end skating, he may also have been a victim of consensus writers not watching him in league play because Slovakia. He has no singular weakness which can hold him back in any normal circumstance, and is also a heavy bet to be gone in the 1st round.
Ostlund: though his offensive dynamism is on par with Mesar and just behind Kulich, he is small and slight and this concerns many NHL front offices, especially with centers. This is certainly a kid who can fall to #37 despite immense offensive talent.
Firkus: an incredibly dynamic offensive player, but also one with weaknesses which concern NHL scouts more than most draft evaluators -- he's small, can get caught on the perimeter, and needs a lot of work in his 200-foot game. Some team can fall in love with his high-end scoring capabilities and take him as high as #20, but he can also conceivably fall to #37.
Gaucher: he's big, strong, physical and plays an outstanding two-way game with fantastic face-off acumen. NHL teams love centers like this, and he'll very likely be gone in the 1st round despite an offensive ceiling as a middle-6 center.
Rinzel: he's really the Scott Morrow of this year's draft -- a USHS kid who has 1st-pairing type talent but played low competition. Though this is scary to NHL teams, many of them (the Devils, anyone?) have to feel pretty stupid about passing on Morrow last year. Do we learn our lesson? Could go in the 20's or fall to the mid-2nd round.
Bischel: has as much draft "helium" as anyone in the draft right now, and has shot up to #1 on several LD boards. Very likely to go in the late first round right now -- he's 6'5, skates well and has some offensive ability. Teams watching K'Andre Miller excelling every night in the playoffs won't miss out on Bischsel. I'd bet he's gone by #37.
Luneau: he's a terrific, two-way, high-floor RD without any discernible weakness; as such, he'll go in the 1st round. I think some draft writers overlook him because he's not a *sexy* pick, but NHL teams all need guys like Luneau.
Nelson: certainly a kid who can fall. I'd say he's the Lukas Cormier of the 2022 class -- an outstanding offensive defenseman who lacks size and can pretty consistently be beaten in his own zone. Draft writers who don't watch the players normally don't care, they're just wowed by the numbers. But Nelson isn't just problematic defensively, he's downright *bad*. As a RD who can score, he's certainly got a chance to go in the 1st. But, like Cormier, he's also a kid who can fall to the 3rd round. I don't see the Devils taking him, because Fitzgerald has shown a preference for more size on the blueline. I also think this is a good thing, because this is a very problematic player to have on an NHL blueline.
Kyrou: I think you're smoking something if you take him in the 2nd round, much less the 1st. He's like a lower-ceiling Nelson, at best. I'll go so far to say that if you take either Nelson or Kyrou with Rinzel or Luneau available, you need a new scouting team.
Odelius/Pickering: both LD, and I don't see NJ considering a LD this early in the draft unless Bichsel were to miraculously fall. Either could go as high as the 20s or as low as the 40s.
