Confirmed with Link: Ivan Provorov Signs Extension - 6 Years/$40.5M ($6.75AAV)

[bennysflyers16]

Say they lock Provorov up to a deal in the 5.5 range for 8 years.... would you try and bring in another superstar defenseman then? Ghost and Provorov combined cap hit would be 10 million.

His agent would have to be a buffoon, or Schiefeles agent to sign a deal like that imo. I said earlier I would go as high as 7-8 per right now, that is how confident I am in this kid and he will only get more expensive as he gets to elite level.

8 yrs, 50 mill is what I would push for right now tho

 

[Ruck Over]

$6.66 million since he's such a beast.

We're not the Devils. We're much better than some mickey mouse outfit.

 

[mja]

We're not the Devils. We're much better than some mickey mouse outfit.

Actually, that would kind of amuse me, given that we have the Devils to thank for even being able to select him in the draft in the first place.

 

[Ruck Over]

Actually, that would kind of amuse me, given that we have the Devils to thank for even being able to select him in the draft in the first place.

Any chance to call the Debbies a mickey mouse club is a chance well taken and appreciated. I really don't care how much the Flyers pay Provorov.

As I previously stated in this thread, any amount is likely TOO MUCH. He has NO FIGHTS in two years of NHL service.

 

[Curufinwe]

They passed on him at... number 6.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Anyone willing to go close to 8 mill a year really has no grasp of the value of RFA years. Why pay him like a UFA if you don't have to? It defeats the purpose of building through the draft. I'm not in favor of bridge deals and I don't see it happening with Ivan, but if he was holding out for anything close to 8x8, you're better off just bridging him and having him prove his worth as he inches closer to UFA. As long as Ghost is here, he's going to have a tough time putting up the gaudy numbers that pay big money.

 

[SchatzY]

And for the record, I think he likely gets 6 to 6.5 on an 8 year deal, so ultimately we're not that far apart, but this 9 million talk is crazy town.

Did I not say it will be anywhere from 6.5 to 8? I'm saying your under valuing him if you don't think a GM would offer him 9 per If he hit free agency.

Also can you answer the question how many D in the NHL are under the age of 23 that are a legit 1 on their team, that made the payoffs?

Hell Brandon Manning just got 2 mil per year

 

[mdm815]

You bridge him, and he keeps panning out like we all think he will and instead of paying him 7 from 22-30 you’re paying him 12 from 25-33

 

[mdm815]

The other thing is that franchise RFAs have changed track. McDavid didn’t get an RFA discount. Matthews won’t. Eichel. Provorov is a franchise RFA. He’s not Seth Jones who didn’t establish himself as their number 1 until after he signed. He’s Ekblad except instead of a knee-jerk signing followed by him falling off, Provy has done it since he entered the league. He will command top RFA dollars and frankly, he owes it to his peers to do so (at least from the PA perspective).

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Provorov doesn’t deserve 8x8. The guy doesn’t even play on the top PP unit which is going to limit his production which like it or not ultimately weighs a lot in contracts.

If that’s the contract he’s looking for the Flyers would be better off just letting him finish out his ELC before an extension as it’s unlikely he’s going to score 17 goals again.

 

[mdm815]

Like i said i think he’s at 7x8. Anything less is kushy. He won’t come in sub 6 unless it’s a bridge deal though.

 

[Tripod]

Looks like lots of people are going to be happy with the Provy contract when it happens....because he won't be getting close to 8x8.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I can't think of anything I am less worried about than Provy's contract. Hexy has proven to be very good with the contracts, right? He'll take care of it, and Provy will earn every penny, no matter how many pennies there are. Simple.

 

[FLYguy3911]

You bridge him, and he keeps panning out like we all think he will and instead of paying him 7 from 22-30 you’re paying him 12 from 25-33

12 now!?! We’re just throwing numbers around now. Do I hear a 13?

The other thing is that franchise RFAs have changed track. McDavid didn’t get an RFA discount. Matthews won’t. Eichel. Provorov is a franchise RFA. He’s not Seth Jones who didn’t establish himself as their number 1 until after he signed. He’s Ekblad except instead of a knee-jerk signing followed by him falling off, Provy has done it since he entered the league. He will command top RFA dollars and frankly, he owes it to his peers to do so (at least from the PA perspective).

He’s not Eichel. He’s not Matthews. And he’s definitely not McDavid.

I can’t wait to see what Werenski gets. We'll see if that happens soon.

 

[Magua]

I can’t wait to see what Werenski gets. We'll see if that happens soon.

I'd bet he gets 6 years at no more than $6 mil. I'm sure Jones' contract helps. You can say Provorov is more advanced defensively, but Werenski has a bit more offensive upside long-term than Provy and also plays top pair to great success. Thing is, Jones is now on PP1 and Werenski isn't....or wasn't. But Werenski also got injured and they're different hands, so if they wanted to have both on PP1, it's an option unlike here. That he started on PP1 matters too.

Werenski is the top pair d-man with the Calder nomination, the 47 point season, and just had 1 less goal than Provorov's 17 (which always gets mentioned) in less games with a bum shoulder. It's not a p*ssing contest; just stating that any argument for Provorov is equaled by him. And I don't see Werenski getting 8 year x $8 mil (+!) talk. Ivan is great, but some people get irrational with him because he's a long awaited homegrown defenseman.

 

[Rebels57]

I'd bet he gets 6 years at no more than $6 mil. I'm sure Jones' contract helps. You can say Provorov is more advanced defensively, but Werenski has a bit more offensive upside long-term than Provy and also plays top pair to great success. Thing is, Jones is now on PP1 and Werenski isn't....or wasn't. But Werenski also got injured and they're different hands, so if they wanted to have both on PP1, it's an option unlike here. That he started on PP1 matters too.

Werenski is the top pair d-man with the Calder nomination, the 47 point season, and just had 1 less goal than Provorov's 17 (which always gets mentioned) in less games with a bum shoulder. It's not a p*ssing contest; just stating that any argument for Provorov is equaled by him. And I don't see Werenski getting 8 year x $8 mil (+!) talk. Ivan is great, but some people get irrational with him because he's a long awaited homegrown defenseman.

Theres no amount of love for Provy that is irrational ...but there is an amount of money that is.

 

[mja]

Did I not say it will be anywhere from 6.5 to 8? I'm saying your under valuing him if you don't think a GM would offer him 9 per If he hit free agency.

Also can you answer the question how many D in the NHL are under the age of 23 that are a legit 1 on their team, that made the payoffs?

Hell Brandon Manning just got 2 mil per year

1. 6.5 per is the ceiling on an 8 year deal, not the floor. So we overlap on where we think he’ll end up, but barely.

2. You keep bringing up the # 1 dman at under 23 thing as some sort of incontrovertible evidence that he’d be offered 9 per. It’s a ridiculous premise from the jump.

3. Brandon Manning’s contract is irrelevant. Why do you keep using UFA contracts as a basis of comparison? Completely separate markets.

 

[SchatzY]

1. 6.5 per is the ceiling on an 8 year deal, not the floor. So we overlap on where we think he’ll end up, but barely.

2. You keep bringing up the # 1 dman at under 23 thing as some sort of incontrovertible evidence that he’d be offered 9 per. It’s a ridiculous premise from the jump.

3. Brandon Manning’s contract is irrelevant. Why do you keep using UFA contracts as a basis of comparison? Completely separate markets.

1. We would be buying 4 UFA years as well so that would make the contract go up. The cap inflating also would have to do with the money here as well.

2. He is a 21 year old 1# defenseman those are extremely rare at the NHL level so again he is better than all of his peers in his age group, except for maybe a couple. You keep dancing around the question I have asked you 3 times now.

3. I was pointing out the fact that Manning got 2 mil from some dumb GM. I wasn't comparing their RFA/ UFA status. If some clown offered Manning 1.90mil more a year than he's worth you don't think another GM would over pay for one of if not the best Under 23 defensemen?

 

[Curufinwe]

Provorov doesn’t deserve 8x8. The guy doesn’t even play on the top PP unit which is going to limit his production which like it or not ultimately weighs a lot in contracts.

If that’s the contract he’s looking for the Flyers would be better off just letting him finish out his ELC before an extension as it’s unlikely he’s going to score 17 goals again.

It would very risky to let a young Russian star finish out his ELC without an extension. That would just invite the KHL to offer him the moon.

 

[mdm815]

Is Provorov not as valuable to the flyers as McDavid is to EDM, or Eichel or Matthews are to their respective teams? A couple years ago premium players were signing for 8ish. Then it bumped to 10 and now it’s in the 10-12 range. I understand these are UFAs but it’s used to illustrate the point that salaries are rising. That does trickle down to RFAs as well.
The 12 number after a bridge deal comes from the fact if he does indeed become the Norris caliber defenseman everyone here likes to talk about, that’s going to be the market at that point (4 years from now). And if he gives the team a bridge it’s to cash in afterwards. That’s how those deals work.

And just to say it one last time so it can die, i think 8 is on the high end and probably won’t happen barring his agent hardballing us. But he’s gonna be closer to 8 than he is to 5 and if they split the difference that’s gonna be a bargain deal.

 

[Provorov4Norris]

I think the MAX Provorov gets is $6.5 mill/year otherwise they won't lock him up for 8 years. It just doesn't make sense. Comparing elite player contracts and UFA contracts with what Provorov will get on his 2nd contract is mixing apples and oranges.

I'm a HUGE fan of Provorov and think he'll be a great player but he's not there yet and doesn't deserve to be paid for 8 years like he is. I think Gost's number helps keep his number down a bit as well. I think 8 years for $48 or $50 mill gets it done.

 

[mja]

1. We would be buying 4 UFA years as well so that would make the contract go up. The cap inflating also would have to do with the money here as well.

2. He is a 21 year old 1# defenseman those are extremely rare at the NHL level so again he is better than all of his peers in his age group, except for maybe a couple. You keep dancing around the question I have asked you 3 times now.

3. I was pointing out the fact that Manning got 2 mil from some dumb GM. I wasn't comparing their RFA/ UFA status. If some clown offered Manning 1.90mil more a year than he's worth you don't think another GM would over pay for one of if not the best Under 23 defensemen?

We're going around in circles here.

1. Buying UFA years on a RFA contract is not the same thing as a UFA contract.

2. As I think I've made clear, I haven't bothered to answer the question because it's not relevant. In other words, you're unable to coherently explain how Provorov being a #1 dman under 23 is worth 9 million. Why 9 million? You're just pulling a number out of your ass that isn't based on anything.

Look at the actual comparables:

Ekholm's contract started 2 years ago for 3.75
Klingberg 3 years ago for 4.25
Ghost a year ago for 4.5
Rielly 2 years ago for 5
Lindholm 2 years ago for 5.2
Slavin a year ago for 5.3
Jones 2 years ago for 5.4
Ristolainen 2 years ago for 5.4
Parayko a year ago for 5.5
Hamilton 3 years ago for 5.75
Folwer this year at 6.5
Ekblad a year ago for 7.5

Ekblad is an outlier and frankly is a rough contract, and he won a Calder and he's also a RHD.

I basically see Ivan getting Fowler's contract, unless he goes for less than 8 years, and then he ends up somewhere north of 5 but not more than 6 or so. Remember, he's never going to have really sexy offensive stats with Ghost in front of him on PP1.

3. Manning's contract is irrelevant. All UFA contracts are irrelevant in this discussion. It's a completely different market.

 

[mja]

Is Provorov not as valuable to the flyers as McDavid is to EDM

I stopped reading here. Of course Provorov isn't as valuable to the Flyers as McDavid is to the Edmonton. I'd trade two Provorovs for McDavid, and I'd add heavily to that.

I hate saying this because it sounds like I'm shitting on Provorov, but some of you are VASTLY overrating him. He's not Lidstrom or Pronger or Karlsson or Doughty or Hedman. Not yet anyway.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

12 now!?! We’re just throwing numbers around now. Do I hear a 13?

I think you are misunderstanding the post. He's saying if we pay him a bridge contract we'll end up paying him $12 million a year a few years from now after his next contract (which, if he does what we all want him to do and the cap keeps going up sounds about right). If we pay him 7x8 now we get better bang for the buck. It is a gamble either way I suppose. We either get burned by paying more now because he doesn't live up to it or we get burned by paying more later because he exceeded the bridge deal.

Like for instance, if we sign him to 7x8 and he wins a Norris Trophy in the next eight years, that's a huge get and eight years from now the cap will have gone up a lot and our roster will look a lot different and he'll be 30 at the time, possibly with his best years behind him at $7 mil. If we pay him $5 mil for three years and he wins a Norris Trophy in those three years, how much do you think he'll want in his next contract? I'd rather get burned and have him as an overpayment for eight years than pay him than get a slightly better deal for the next couple years and have to pay him possibly double that when it is all over. And let's be honest even if he does not ever get better than he is now, he's still a top pair defender so it really wouldn't be THAT much of an overpayment. Give the kid 7x8. Hell give him 8x8. He's our cornerstone.

 

[mdm815]

I stopped reading here. Of course Provorov isn't as valuable to the Flyers as McDavid is to the Edmonton. I'd trade two Provorovs for McDavid, and I'd add heavily to that.

I hate saying this because it sounds like I'm ****ting on Provorov, but some of you are VASTLY overrating him. He's not Lidstrom or Pronger or Karlsson or Doughty or Hedman. Not yet anyway.

I’m trying to remain polite bc it’s a healthy discussion, but if you don’t read the full post and you don’t care to take the context of my comment into consideration I’m not sure why you’re bothering to respond at all. Of course the more valuable player is McDavid, but to respective teams Provorov is essential to our current roster and our future roster. Both players will be very important to any cup either team may win.

Let me ask you, how would you handle Provorov and what do you think his contract will be. I gave you my opinion backed up on current trends, and the only thing you’ve said is 8x8 is crazy talk. You’ve taken the upper end number that we all agree is high and made that your hill to stand on. I’ll do the same. Explain to me how Provorov will get less than 6.