Confirmed with Link: Ivan Provorov Signs Extension - 6 Years/$40.5M ($6.75AAV)

[deadhead]

Provorov will get less than $6M if the term is only 4-5 years, you pay extra for the UFA years.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

i am still sticking with 6.75X8 for Provorov

 

[mja]

I’m trying to remain polite bc it’s a healthy discussion, but if you don’t read the full post and you don’t care to take the context of my comment into consideration I’m not sure why you’re bothering to respond at all. Of course the more valuable player is McDavid, but to respective teams Provorov is essential to our current roster and our future roster. Both players will be very important to any cup either team may win.

Let me ask you, how would you handle Provorov and what do you think his contract will be. I gave you my opinion backed up on current trends, and the only thing you’ve said is 8x8 is crazy talk. You’ve taken the upper end number that we all agree is high and made that your hill to stand on. I’ll do the same. Explain to me how Provorov will get less than 6.

I’ve explained all of my thinking in this thread pretty clearly, and I’ve laid out what type of contract I expect Provorov to get and why. At this point, we’re just repeating ourselves, & when you begin a post by saying that Provorov is as valuable to the Flyers as McDavid is to the Oilers, it’s really hard to take you seriously. No matter what rationale you use to argue that point, you’re horrendously wrong.

 

[SchatzY]

We're going around in circles here.

1. Buying UFA years on a RFA contract is not the same thing as a UFA contract.

2. As I think I've made clear, I haven't bothered to answer the question because it's not relevant. In other words, you're unable to coherently explain how Provorov being a #1 dman under 23 is worth 9 million. Why 9 million? You're just pulling a number out of your ass that isn't based on anything.

Look at the actual comparables:

Ekholm's contract started 2 years ago for 3.75
Klingberg 3 years ago for 4.25
Ghost a year ago for 4.5
Rielly 2 years ago for 5
Lindholm 2 years ago for 5.2
Slavin a year ago for 5.3
Jones 2 years ago for 5.4
Ristolainen 2 years ago for 5.4
Parayko a year ago for 5.5
Hamilton 3 years ago for 5.75
Folwer this year at 6.5
Ekblad a year ago for 7.5

Ekblad is an outlier and frankly is a rough contract, and he won a Calder and he's also a RHD.

I basically see Ivan getting Fowler's contract, unless he goes for less than 8 years, and then he ends up somewhere north of 5 but not more than 6 or so. Remember, he's never going to have really sexy offensive stats with Ghost in front of him on PP1.

3. Manning's contract is irrelevant. All UFA contracts are irrelevant in this discussion. It's a completely different market.

1. It kind of is. It may be a gamble but that's exactly what it is the longer the deal the more annual cap it's going to take. You're insuring that Ivan is locked up though his prime years. On what it think would be a reasonable contract when he hits his prime.

2. Again you don't answer any question I pose to you. It's actually quite frustrating. I'm trying to understand why you don't think a GM would offer him stupid money if he were on the open market. Again every one of those D men you listed Ivan is better than except for maybe Jones, and that's right now not in the future. If Provo were on PP1 what do you think his numbers last year would look like? He was playing 23 min a game while not being utilized on PP1 that's a ridiculous number for a 21 year old in the NHL. He also tied for the league lead in goals, again while not being on the first unit. He would have ran away with it if he was. The reason I asked how many number 1 dmen in the NHL are under 23 on a playoff team is to show you his value. You won't answer because the is only 1 and it is him.

So a calder trophy gets you 7.5 but none of which I stated doesn't.

3. Manning contact is relevant because I'm not comparing thier UFA/ RFA status. It's just to say a lot of NHL GM's aren't very bright when handing out contracts. Would you pay Manning 2 mil per to be on this team? I would pay 2 mil per for another team to take him.

I was refuting your argument that no one would offer him 9 million on the open market. I believe you are very wrong.

 

[mdm815]

With McDavid the Oilers missed the playoffs. Without McDavid the oilers would miss the playoffs. With Provorov we made it. Without him you could argue we would miss the playoffs. Individual value and value to a team are separate things.

 

[deadhead]

You're simply wrong.
Say a contract has 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years:
1) the price would be split between the RFA years and UFA years in terms of salary
2) but the team has the option of a low cost bridge RFA contract, then pay UFA level salary in UFA years
3) so both sides compromise, the player accepts a lower average salary in order to get the money guaranteed and not have to chance his career going south before he reaches his big UFA payday - $50M now has more value than $100M in 5 years because the marginal value of the additional salary is far less than being set for life, i.e. the first $50M buys security, taking care of mom, etc., the second $50M just buys "toys."
4) so if the bridge RFA deal would only play $3-4M for 4 years but a UFA contract would pay $9-10M, $14M plus $38M = $52M over 8 years

 

[mdm815]

That’s a pretty good way of putting it @deadhead. That’s 6.5 cap hit. With a climbing cap it could look like 7x8. I think everyone is pretty much on board with the concept that 6-8 over 8 years is to be expected, it’s just a matter of how he performs this year and what the rest of the market does between now and him signing.

 

[Prongo]

If you get him under 6. Watch out because this team will be primed to add a few big time players. Especially with a rising cap. You lock up Provorov and ghost under 11 million for the both you have a lot of availability to make additions to the team.

 

[hatcher]

If you get him under 6. Watch out because this team will be primed to add a few big time players. Especially with a rising cap. You lock up Provorov and ghost under 11 million for the both you have a lot of availability to make additions to the team.

And that's what should happen.

 

[mdm815]

Hey i hope beyond hope we can get him on a bargain. But i think it’s best to plan for the upper end so everything else is a bonus

 

[wankstifier]

With McDavid the Oilers missed the playoffs. Without McDavid the oilers would miss the playoffs. With Provorov we made it. Without him you could argue we would miss the playoffs. Individual value and value to a team are separate things.

Nope

 

[FLYguy3911]

Is Provorov not as valuable to the flyers as McDavid is to EDM, or Eichel or Matthews are to their respective teams? A couple years ago premium players were signing for 8ish. Then it bumped to 10 and now it’s in the 10-12 range. I understand these are UFAs but it’s used to illustrate the point that salaries are rising. That does trickle down to RFAs as well.
The 12 number after a bridge deal comes from the fact if he does indeed become the Norris caliber defenseman everyone here likes to talk about, that’s going to be the market at that point (4 years from now). And if he gives the team a bridge it’s to cash in afterwards. That’s how those deals work.

And just to say it one last time so it can die, i think 8 is on the high end and probably won’t happen barring his agent hardballing us. But he’s gonna be closer to 8 than he is to 5 and if they split the difference that’s gonna be a bargain deal.

Provorov isn't even the clear cut best defenseman on his own team (and that guy just signed for 4.5 AAV last summer) so I don't like comparing him to those guys. Teams pay for points and those guys are getting max usage so there's a lot more downside than upside to playing hardball with those guys. As long as Gostisbehere is here, Provorov's production is capped.

He needs to be the best defensemen on his own team to even be considered for the Norris. Cross that bridge when we get there. I said I was against a bridge deal, he won't get one. It was just a hypothetical scenario in the event that he asked for 8x8. He doesn't deserve that.

In the end, I think he's closer to 6 than 8.

I think you are misunderstanding the post. He's saying if we pay him a bridge contract we'll end up paying him $12 million a year a few years from now after his next contract (which, if he does what we all want him to do and the cap keeps going up sounds about right). If we pay him 7x8 now we get better bang for the buck. It is a gamble either way I suppose. We either get burned by paying more now because he doesn't live up to it or we get burned by paying more later because he exceeded the bridge deal.

Like for instance, if we sign him to 7x8 and he wins a Norris Trophy in the next eight years, that's a huge get and eight years from now the cap will have gone up a lot and our roster will look a lot different and he'll be 30 at the time, possibly with his best years behind him at $7 mil. If we pay him $5 mil for three years and he wins a Norris Trophy in those three years, how much do you think he'll want in his next contract? I'd rather get burned and have him as an overpayment for eight years than pay him than get a slightly better deal for the next couple years and have to pay him possibly double that when it is all over. And let's be honest even if he does not ever get better than he is now, he's still a top pair defender so it really wouldn't be THAT much of an overpayment. Give the kid 7x8. Hell give him 8x8. He's our cornerstone.

No I understood the post perfectly. I just don't see how he could possibly be worth 12 million 3 years from now. The "best" defenseman in the league just signed for an AAV of 11 million. That's a defenseman with a Norris, 2 Cups, 2 Olympic Golds, a bonafide #1, playdriver, 60 points, etc. And the Kings were paying all UFA years. Provorov still has 4 RFA years after his ELC is up, and 2 RFA years in a hypothetical bridge deal. So many unrealistic things would have to happen for 12 million to be a possibility, that it's crazy talk to even bring it up.

I think the thing people seem to not want to admit is from a statistical standpoint, this very well could have been Provorov's career year. I know that's crazy to think for a 21 year old, but think about it. Do you have any confidence he can repeat 17 goals without top PP time? He played nearly half of his minutes with the 2nd leading scorer in the league. I don't think you can count on Giroux having another year like that. Hakstol has a conservative offensive system as it is so I don't see upside there. He needs Gostisbehere to miss significant time due to an injury or get traded to put up the Big $$ points and even then he hasn't shown to be very good on the PP.

 

[mdm815]

So for the past few years Couturier has been worth what other fans offered? He wasn’t worth more to us than he would have been in a trade? Because that’s exactly what we said as a board and it’s identical to the scenario posited here.

 

[BernieParent]

My woefully uneducated projection would be $7 million for max term or $4.5 million if just RFA years are covered.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

No I understood the post perfectly. I just don't see how he could possibly be worth 12 million 3 years from now. The "best" defenseman in the league just signed for an AAV of 11 million. That's a defenseman with a Norris, 2 Cups, 2 Olympic Golds, a bonafide #1, playdriver, 60 points, etc. And the Kings were paying all UFA years. Provorov still has 4 RFA years after his ELC is up, and 2 RFA years in a hypothetical bridge deal. So many unrealistic things would have to happen for 12 million to be a possibility, that it's crazy talk to even bring it up.

I think the thing people seem to not want to admit is from a statistical standpoint, this very well could have been Provorov's career year. I know that's crazy to think for a 21 year old, but think about it. Do you have any confidence he can repeat 17 goals without top PP time? He played nearly half of his minutes with the 2nd leading scorer in the league. I don't think you can count on Giroux having another year like that. Hakstol has a conservative offensive system as it is so I don't see upside there. He needs Gostisbehere to miss significant time due to an injury or get traded to put up the Big $$ points and even then he hasn't shown to be very good on the PP.

You think at age whatever entering the prime of his career as a UFA on his first UFA contract he is likely to get $________?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Geez, there's a lot of people really overestimating what dmen like Provy get paid.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Geez, there's a lot of people really overestimating what dmen like Provy get paid.

Over or under?

 

[mdm815]

And who are D-men like Provy? It’s unfair to praise his accomplishments on one hand and devalue him on the other. The Ghost deal is a bargain, but it’s only 6 years and it was signed after a down year AND before he improved his defensive acumen last year. That is also an unfair comparison for Ivan’s situation.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

And who are D-men like Provy? It’s unfair to praise his accomplishments on one hand and devalue him on the other. The Ghost deal is a bargain, but it’s only 6 years and it was signed after a down year AND before he improved his defensive acumen last year. That is also an unfair comparison for Ivan’s situation.

No no no, Flyers players are good when compared to other teams or being discussed about trades (especially the young ones), but they are bad or undeserving when they are on big dollar contracts or up for a new contract. You have been a member since 2005 you should know this!

 

[Beef Invictus]

Over or under?

Over. No way he's getting 8 mil

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Over. No way he's getting 8 mil

For the AI intellectual rights alone that can be pulled from his hard drive he's worth $13M.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Provorov is Reverse-Carter. You're never going to get an objective conversation that stays that way.

And who are D-men like Provy? It’s unfair to praise his accomplishments on one hand and devalue him on the other. The Ghost deal is a bargain, but it’s only 6 years and it was signed after a down year AND before he improved his defensive acumen last year. That is also an unfair comparison for Ivan’s situation.

To the bolded, compare the number of UFA years that bought out to Provorov's potential deal.

It's easier to quote myself:

If we look at highly-regarded D in the last couple of years who didn't bridge and had already broken out (filtering out unfair comps like Klefbom), that gives us:

Lindholm for 6/31.5
Slavin for 7/37.1
Hamilton for 6/34.5
Seth Jones for 6/32.4
Ristolainen for 6/32.4
Ekblad for 8/60
Rielly for 6/30
Klingberg for 7/29.5 -- I almost left this out because it was downright comical the day it was signed.

Adjust up a bit for the cap, etc.

You can add to that the baseline that we have of roughly top pair rep D going UFA getting ~8 per and arrive fairly quickly at a ballpark.

If your counter argument is that he's Hedman/Doughty, I'm not going to respond. You're not interested in reality.

 

[FLYguy3911]

You think at age whatever entering the prime of his career as a UFA on his first UFA contract he is likely to get $________?

What's the cap? How old is he? What's his ES/PP point breakdowns year-by-year? What do his advanced metrics look like? What's his medical record look like? Is the Flyers PK still in the basement? Is he actually competent on the PP? What do his peers' contracts look like?

Point is, it's too far out and there are so many variables you can't possibly predict with any certainty what he'd get as an unrestricted free agent in 2026 or whenever he'd be eligible.

A hypothetical bridge deal was brought up. That's about 3 years away from a renewal. You can pretty much rule out $12 million AAV unless the cap explodes over $100 million and teams want to pay players relative to the cap.

 

[04hockey]

kid's a stud.....get it done, $60M/8 yrs
try him on the right side all of pre-season - see what we get from the "experiment"

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

What's the cap? How old is he? What's his ES/PP point breakdowns year-by-year? What do his advanced metrics look like? What's his medical record look like? Is the Flyers PK still in the basement? Is he actually competent on the PP? What do his peers' contracts look like?

How did I know you were going to say that? It's amazing that there are so many people with so many opinions but when asked a simple question there is just no way to answer it!

Point is, it's too far out and there are so many variables you can't possibly predict with any certainty what he'd get as an unrestricted free agent in 2026 or whenever he'd be eligible.

That's the point of this entire discussion. There is a risk in both. Paying 8x8 could pay off big time. It could also saddle us with an overpaid defenseman if he craps the bed. I'm willing to bet that we save more by paying 8x8 now than we do by giving him a bridge contract. You are absolutely right that we have no idea what things will look like. That's why the people talking about these deals are acknowledging that this is a risk but a risk worth taking. But I guess it makes sense, if there is one thing people never do and really can't do, it is make projections about players or their salaries.

A hypothetical bridge deal was brought up. That's about 3 years away from a renewal. You can pretty much rule out $12 million AAV unless the cap explodes over $100 million and teams want to pay players relative to the cap.

So you know that in three years he won't be worth $12 million, but you also know that you're willing to pay him something for the next three or so years? Is that correct? What are you willing to pay him on a bridge deal? $4 million? Less? More?