Blue Jays Discussion: It's still the off-season (Ray: Cy Young, Berrios: 7yr ext, Semien: to TEX, Gausman: signs 5y/$110m)

[Bjindaho]

Power of TJ surgery. Could only get a 1 year last year, then blows his elbow and will command a 2 year deal.

This is either because teams really are spending a lot more this year or that his medical last year were even worse than we knew and surgery made people feel better about his health

Or maybe he gets 2 years at 5 a pop this year where he got 1x10 last. He can't pitch this year, so teams are hoping to get a discounted year 2 by paying something for year 1.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

10 MLB Pitching Prospects With Intriguing Analytical Profiles

Adrian Hernandez, RHP, Toronto
Why He Stands Out: Hernandez’s changeup is among the most elite in the minors, owing to a few characteristics. First, he generates a tremendous amount of armside run, with an average of greater than 17 inches of horizontal break arm-side. Secondly, he does a tremendous job of killing lift, or creating tumble to go with his elite fading action. Finally, his changeup averages 10 mph of velocity separation from his four-seam fastball.
The pitch has similar qualities to Devin Williams now-famous airbender, and Hernandez’s version produces raw spin rates in the 2,200-2,300 rpm range.
Hernandez’s fastball averages roughly 18 inches of ride, which helps counteract its below-average velocity and raw spin rates. Because his changeup fades significantly one way and his fastball runs the opposite way, hitters struggle to differentiate the two pitches.
Due to the spin efficiency and clean axis upon which it spins, Hernandez’s 12-6 curveball generates an above-average amount of depth, which allows the pitch to play off both his fastball and elite changeup.
Takeaway: Hernandez, 21, is a name to know. With 10 appearances at Double-A under his belt, Hernandez has the pitch mix to find his way into the Toronto pen within the next 18 months as a reliever who could work multiple innings per outing.​

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Toronto
Why He Stands Out: Prior to his elbow injury last spring, Hoglund boasted some of the best four-seam spin and shape in the 2021 draft class. On average, Hoglund was spinning fastballs at 2600+ rpms, on a near perfect 1:00 axis and generating on average 20+ inches of induced vertical break.
He pairs his fastball with a sweepy slider that consistently averaged nearly 2,800 rpms of spin. His nearly 14 inches of sweep on average with slight drop give the pitch two-plane break. Against college competition, the slider generated a 51% whiff rate.
Time will tell how quickly Hoglund’s feel for spin returns or if it returns at all. The player we saw last spring had the stuff to vault himself into the top 10 of the 2021 draft class had he not succumbed to injury.
Takeaway: Hoglund pairs high-spin stuff with innate command and control of his arsenal. If Hoglund can return to form and make gains in the way of velocity on both his fastball and slider, he has the chance to possess two plus or better pitches by the time he's MLB ready.​

Makes exposing Adrian Hernandez to the Rule 5 draft slightly more puzzling.

 

[phillipmike]

AL MVP is going to be a tough race for Vladdy for the next 10 years. Ohtani. Franco and Trout.

 

[Jozay]

AL MVP is going to be a tough race for Vladdy for the next 10 years. Ohtani. Franco and Trout.

 

[AllDay28]

I get it’s 223 mil but why did Franco leave like 100 mil on the table?

 

[phillipmike]

I'm always in the take the sure thing when presented to you, but if there are no opt outs to this deal, its a pretty bad one for Franco.

EDIT: Also worth nothing that Trout made $264M from his aged 20-31 seasons and he did it with his first few years non guaranteed. So i guess it is around that number. If Franco is as good as Trout, he could make another $200-300M.

 

[Tony Romo]

I'm always in the take the sure thing when presented to you, but if there are no opt outs to this deal, its a pretty bad one for Franco.

My thoughts as well. If a team that is notoriously cheap is going to sign you for that long, you gotta know they are getting an insane deal

 

[Cor]

There is the comparison for Vladdy,

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Scotianhab]

There is the comparison for Vladdy,

Vlad will get more. He’s proven more

 

[Cor]

I’m not too concerned about losing Matz at this point. For some reason I’d prefer we not sign him. Have a feeling he’s going to get more than he’s worth

If there's 8 teams who have put in offers, I'd rather look elsewhere as well.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Kurtz]

Power of TJ surgery. Could only get a 1 year last year, then blows his elbow and will command a 2 year deal.

This is either because teams really are spending a lot more this year or that his medical last year were even worse than we knew and surgery made people feel better about his health

Speaking of which, I wonder how Osuna is doing.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Rosenthal: Best bet for Freddie Freeman; why Rangers are so aggressive; how high for Marcus Semien?; more notes - The Athletic

How high for Marcus Semien?

Predictions for free-agent contracts often vary widely, but three publications had Marcus Semien in a similar range. The Athletic said five years, $148 million, the New York Post five years, $140 million, MLBTradeRumors.com six years, $138 million.

Semien’s new agent, Scott Boras, however, is said to be seeking considerably more than those amounts, perhaps more than $200 million. Semien’s performance from 2019 to ’21 would appear to justify such an investment. Even though he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he is still the major-league leader among position players in both fWAR and bWAR over those three years.

The problem for Semien, at least when considering the current way clubs evaluate players, is that he turned 31 on Sept. 17. The last free-agent hitter to clear $200 million at that age or older was Robinson Canó, who signed a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Mariners entering his age 31 season in December 2013. George Springer, who a year ago was almost exactly the same age as Semien is today, landed a six-year, $150 million deal on the open market with the Blue Jays.

Semien possesses certain advantages over Springer: Durability (he has missed only 10 games his last four seasons); two top-three MVP finishes in the last three years (Springer was the 2017 World Series MVP, but has never finished higher than seventh in the regular season); and the ability to play high-level defense at two middle-infield positions (Semien won his first Gold Glove at second base last season).

Boras might point to another of his contracts – Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245 million free-agent deal with the Angels – as a comp for Semien. Rendon, though, was almost two years younger than Semien when he signed his deal. Francisco Lindor, who will be paid $224 million in his ages 31 through 37 seasons with the Mets, is another potential yardstick. Some teams, however, view the Lindor contract as an outlier, an example of a new owner, Steve Cohen, trying to make a statement, and getting carried away.

Semien is virtually certain to do better than DJ Lemahieu, who was a year older when he signed his six-year, $90 million free-agent deal with the Yankees coming off back-to-back top-four MVP finishes in 2020. How much better is the question.

 

[AllDay28]

My thoughts as well. If a team that is notoriously cheap is going to sign you for that long, you gotta know they are getting an insane deal

this x 1000. If the Rays wanna sign you for 223 mil, you’re probably worth double.

that said I’d take 223mil to play baseball for 12 years so who am I to judge.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm always in the take the sure thing when presented to you, but if there are no opt outs to this deal, its a pretty bad one for Franco.

EDIT: Also worth nothing that Trout made $264M from his aged 20-31 seasons and he did it with his first few years non guaranteed. So i guess it is around that number. If Franco is as good as Trout, he could make another $200-300M.

A player who was the best player in the league for like 5 years straight only got 41 million more over the same years. So you're saying Franco should have risked the huge payday in hopes he's as good as Trout to get an extra 41 million? He's a really good player so there isn't a ton of risk, but that's not even a 20% extra reward. He could easily get more than 20% less. If he's only around the 10th best player in the league he likely ends up with less via league min, arb and the FA years.

The Acuna deal is awful. Franco is getting guaranteed arb years around 6,10,15 and then 5 FA years at around 30 million. He's not doing much better than that by going the conventional route, and could end up doing much much worse

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think it's just fine for Franco. There are many routes his career goes where he gets a lot less than that over those years

 

[Cloned]

A player who was the best player in the league for like 5 years straight only got 41 million more over the same years. So you're saying Franco should have risked the huge payday in hopes he's as good as Trout to get an extra 41 million? He's a really good player so there isn't a ton of risk, but that's not even a 20% extra reward. He could easily get more than 20% less. If he's only around the 10th best player in the league he likely ends up with less via league min, arb and the FA years.

The Acuna deal is awful. Franco is getting guaranteed arb years around 6,10,15 and then 5 FA years at around 30 million. He's not doing much better than that by going the conventional route, and could end up doing much much worse

41 million in this context is somehow both not a lot and also a lot.

Makes me feel sad lol.

 

[Zero1]

Rosenthal: Best bet for Freddie Freeman; why Rangers are so aggressive; how high for Marcus Semien?; more notes - The Athletic

How high for Marcus Semien?

Predictions for free-agent contracts often vary widely, but three publications had Marcus Semien in a similar range. The Athletic said five years, $148 million, the New York Post five years, $140 million, MLBTradeRumors.com six years, $138 million.

Semien’s new agent, Scott Boras, however, is said to be seeking considerably more than those amounts, perhaps more than $200 million. Semien’s performance from 2019 to ’21 would appear to justify such an investment. Even though he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he is still the major-league leader among position players in both fWAR and bWAR over those three years.

The problem for Semien, at least when considering the current way clubs evaluate players, is that he turned 31 on Sept. 17. The last free-agent hitter to clear $200 million at that age or older was Robinson Canó, who signed a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Mariners entering his age 31 season in December 2013. George Springer, who a year ago was almost exactly the same age as Semien is today, landed a six-year, $150 million deal on the open market with the Blue Jays.

Semien possesses certain advantages over Springer: Durability (he has missed only 10 games his last four seasons); two top-three MVP finishes in the last three years (Springer was the 2017 World Series MVP, but has never finished higher than seventh in the regular season); and the ability to play high-level defense at two middle-infield positions (Semien won his first Gold Glove at second base last season).

Boras might point to another of his contracts – Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245 million free-agent deal with the Angels – as a comp for Semien. Rendon, though, was almost two years younger than Semien when he signed his deal. Francisco Lindor, who will be paid $224 million in his ages 31 through 37 seasons with the Mets, is another potential yardstick. Some teams, however, view the Lindor contract as an outlier, an example of a new owner, Steve Cohen, trying to make a statement, and getting carried away.

Semien is virtually certain to do better than DJ Lemahieu, who was a year older when he signed his six-year, $90 million free-agent deal with the Yankees coming off back-to-back top-four MVP finishes in 2020. How much better is the question.

$200 mill for Marcus Semien?!? Time to move on.

 

[ShaneFalco]

$200 mill for Marcus Semien?!? Time to move on.

Yeah I didn't think we'd be in the running and I'm ok with that

 

[habamillions]

White sox signed graveman. That would be the last team i thought would sign him. Going the yankees route. Starter gets 5 then bp it out.

 

[phillipmike]

A player who was the best player in the league for like 5 years straight only got 41 million more over the same years. So you're saying Franco should have risked the huge payday in hopes he's as good as Trout to get an extra 41 million? He's a really good player so there isn't a ton of risk, but that's not even a 20% extra reward. He could easily get more than 20% less. If he's only around the 10th best player in the league he likely ends up with less via league min, arb and the FA years.

The Acuna deal is awful. Franco is getting guaranteed arb years around 6,10,15 and then 5 FA years at around 30 million. He's not doing much better than that by going the conventional route, and could end up doing much much worse

I didnt say that. I think you should re-read what i said. I drew the comparison for that reason to support Wander's decision to take the extension. Franco isnt as good as Trout and made $40M less guaranteed over the same period, something Trout didnt get (guaranteed money).

Im saying its a good bet for Franco. Make $186-220M+ now and if he is as good as Trout at the age of 31 like many seems, he could make $200-300M on his next contract from age 31+ to whenever he retires. A potential take home of $400-500M in his career.

Maybe i didnt make it clear, but my first comment was made when I thought the deal was 12 years at around $200M. Since then the deal is less in years and came with a $40M option. If there is an opt out, then it is much better for Franco.

I added the 2nd Edit part as a sober second thought basically saying Wander is being paid almost the same amount of money as Trout with less than a year of service AND 80% is guaranteed, something Trout didnt have. That is a win when you look at it from that perspective.

 

[trellaine201]

I figure Semien will get $28-30M? Per year.

 

[phillipmike]

Such a weird statement.