Blue Jays Discussion: It's still the off-season (Ray: Cy Young, Berrios: 7yr ext, Semien: to TEX, Gausman: signs 5y/$110m)

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Never saw this earlier. I would relocate this team to Montreal if these owners are this cheap. Imagine trading Mullens at how cheap he will be still pre-arb. Combine that with how cheap they've been at the draft, feel bad for Orioles fans.

I guess it depends if you think Mullins is legit star or he will regress. Always a chance teams make some adjustments against him or he battles injuries, etc.

I wouldn’t fault the orioles to explore the market since they are at least 2 or 3 years from being a competitive team

 

[phillipmike]

I normally agree with everything you say, but I disagree with most here, ha. I'd take Springer over Marte rather easily even after nit being healthy last year. The contract has 1 year less and he's 1 year older, so it's essentially the same, and it's $6 million less a season. If Marte is as good next year as this year then it's close. I will take the ceiling with Springer.

Springer is the better player but there are key differences here where Marte has more value.

-Marte is a healthier player; Marte has missed 89 games in the last 4 years compared to Springer's 156
-Marte actually plays CF; 98% of Marte's games in the last 4 years are in CF to Springer's 61%. Even worse, in the last 4 years Springer only has finished 36% of his games in CF. He either has to move to another position in favor of a better defender or ends the game on the bench or at DH.
-Values are similar; Marte's career bWAR over 162 games is 5.0 to Springer's 5.6.
-Signing Marte doesnt cost you anything but money. Springer meant the loss of a 2nd round draft pick and $500,00o in the IFA period
-Marte is $6.5M cheaper

So although the contracts run for the same aged seasons, Marte is the better value and bet than Springer all things considered. It may not end that way but right now, Marte is the better value as he actually plays, and plays CF while costing less money and no loss of pick or pool bonus.

Obviously it isnt an apples to apples comparison. Springer signed younger and when there was only 1 year of COVID where there is likely less money to go around now in year 2 of COVID. Also now who knows if Marte signs here, but it is fair to compare the value of contracts

Not sure I'd really call Escobar or Canha great players either. They're good and Cunha is a weird fit if they think he can play in their OF

I meant to change the wording. It should say 3 "good" players on 3 good to very good contracts. I like all 3 players. I like the Escobar deal, Canha is a little rich but palatable and Marte is a great deal imo.

If the Jays could have moved Gurriel and Grichuk+ for a good 3B, i would have gladly signed Marte to this deal for CF and moved Springer to RF and Teo to LF.

 

[phillipmike]

Proposing 5 blockbuster Black Friday trades


I like Marte but to call him a CFer isnt accurate. He is an elite 2B, but cant play CF well as of late. So thats basically Kirk, Biggio and Hoglund for a top 3-5 2B. His bat fits in well but i dont know if i want to pay that price. Marte is elite but 2B is very easy to fill. If Marte was an elite 3B, i would do it, if not i rather use money to improve and keep the prospects for the deadline.

Trade 1: Thats a lot of moving pieces. Oakland gets a lot of top prospects.
Trade 2: This doesnt make a lot of sense for Seattle.
Trade 4: Makes sense for both sides
Trade 5: I doubt Miami makes that trade, they are trading control for a 1 year rental?

Black Friday Shopping: A Blue Jays Trade Fit For Ketel Marte

This one is better;

Another Marte Trade Offer:

So, taking into account concerns with the above proposal, I took a shot at crafting one of my own. As with all trades, the market dictates the cost and internal valuations dictate the trade packages, but the following offer cuts out the third party and could better suit the needs of the Jays and Diamondbacks if both are looking to make a splash this winter:
Blue Jays get: Ketel Marte
Diamondbacks get: INF Cavan Biggio, INF Jordan Groshans, RHP Adam Kloffenstein, OF Josh Palacios

In place of Hoglund and Kirk, the Jays would send No. 3 prospect Jordan Groshans and No. 7 Adam Kloffenstein. With both Daulton Varsho and Carson Kelly behind the plate, the DBacks don't really have a need for Kirk (though maybe with a universal DH?). Replacing that value with Groshans and Kloffenstein could work for both sides, although the latter struggled with control in 23 starts for A+ Vancouver.

Pulling off a deal for Marte without moving Kirk could even leave the Jays open to drawing from their catching depth for another trade—perhaps for one of those Miami starters.

Arizona has just one infield prospect in their MLB.com top 10, and no natural third basemen before No. 10 prospect A.J. Vukovich, presenting a strong case for top-100 prospects Jordan Groshans to headline a deal. If Gabriel Moreno, Hoglund, and Orelvis Martinez are off the table, Groshans seems a natural fit to front any trade package for a controllable infielder. Marte would fill just one of Toronto's needs, but his affordability and term would allow the Jays fill the third base hole in free agency, making an upper-minors infielder like Groshans potentially expendable.

In this scenario you could still run with Marte at 2B and use Kirk and Gurriel to grab Jose Ramirez for 3B.

Imagine a line up of;

Springer (R) - CF
Guerrero (R) - 1B
Ramirez (S) - 3B
Bichette (R) - SS
Hernandez (R) - RF
Marte (S) - 2B
Rest Night for the top 6 - DH
LF
Jansen/Moreno (R) - C

Got roughly $45M+ left to go get a LF if you dont want Grichuk and 2 starting pitchers. Espinal is first guy up in the field.

 

[phillipmike]

Black Friday Shopping: Top Blue Jays Trade Fits From the Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will be a popular phone call this winter.
The AL West squad is "likely to trade almost every player with value on their roster," according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, and the A's have pieces to entice, including coveted first basemen Matt Olson.
We've already taken a look at the price for a potential Blue Jays splash in Ketel Marte this Black Friday, so now we'll break down the clearest Toronto fits from the bay area teardown:

 

[Cloned]

Black Friday Shopping: A Blue Jays Trade Fit For Ketel Marte

This one is better;


In this scenario you could still run with Marte at 2B and use Kirk and Gurriel to grab Jose Ramirez for 3B.

Imagine a line up of;

Springer (R) - CF
Guerrero (R) - 1B
Ramirez (S) - 3B
Bichette (R) - SS
Hernandez (R) - RF
Marte (S) - 2B
Rest Night for the top 6 - DH
LF
Jansen/Moreno (R) - C

Got roughly $45M+ left to go get a LF if you dont want Grichuk and 2 starting pitchers. Espinal is first guy up in the field.

That's a lot for Marte and I'm not sure it's worth it. For that kind of package I'd rather they get someone more consistent.

 

[HuGort]

Yeah you don't need to have an all star level player at every position on the infield. You go and trade for someone like Chapman. If our infield is Chapman-Bichette-Biggio/Espinal-Vlad next year, that is one of the best infields in baseball. Straight up.

If we can get Chapman maybe enough cash to sign Ray?

Like to take a chance on Yankees Clint Frazier if we deal Gurriel. Gurriel as part in trade for Chapman and Manaea. Allows enough cash to sign Ray.

 

[Hoverhand]

Never saw this earlier. I would relocate this team to Montreal if these owners are this cheap. Imagine trading Mullens at how cheap he will be still pre-arb. Combine that with how cheap they've been at the draft, feel bad for Orioles fans.

I believe it was Phillipmike who posed the question earlier in the offseason "Would you trade Martinez+ if the Orioles made Mullins available"

Yes, yes I would.

 

[Discoverer]

Springer is the better player but there are key differences here where Marte has more value.

-Marte is a healthier player; Marte has missed 89 games in the last 4 years compared to Springer's 156
-Marte actually plays CF; 98% of Marte's games in the last 4 years are in CF to Springer's 61%. Even worse, in the last 4 years Springer only has finished 36% of his games in CF. He either has to move to another position in favor of a better defender or ends the game on the bench or at DH.
-Values are similar; Marte's career bWAR over 162 games is 5.0 to Springer's 5.6.
-Signing Marte doesnt cost you anything but money. Springer meant the loss of a 2nd round draft pick and $500,00o in the IFA period
-Marte is $6.5M cheaper

So although the contracts run for the same aged seasons, Marte is the better value and bet than Springer all things considered. It may not end that way but right now, Marte is the better value as he actually plays, and plays CF while costing less money and no loss of pick or pool bonus.

Obviously it isnt an apples to apples comparison. Springer signed younger and when there was only 1 year of COVID where there is likely less money to go around now in year 2 of COVID. Also now who knows if Marte signs here, but it is fair to compare the value of contracts



I meant to change the wording. It should say 3 "good" players on 3 good to very good contracts. I like all 3 players. I like the Escobar deal, Canha is a little rich but palatable and Marte is a great deal imo.

If the Jays could have moved Gurriel and Grichuk+ for a good 3B, i would have gladly signed Marte to this deal for CF and moved Springer to RF and Teo to LF.

That's a really weird way to evaluate a CF. Springer rates much better by UZR and DRS than Marte, but because Springer's teams are willing to replace him with an elite CF defender late in games... Marte is the actual CF?

 

[SDig14]

Mets going to try to sign everyone by December 1st?

 

[phillipmike]

That's a really weird way to evaluate a CF. Springer rates much better by UZR and DRS than Marte, but because Springer's teams are willing to replace him with an elite CF defender late in games... Marte is the actual CF?

You took one put out of it and keyed in on it. I assume you agree with the rest. Regardless, if you throw the late defensive replacement out as you think it’s invalid, the early point stays the same, he only plays 60% of his games in CF to Marte’s 98%.

Do you not think Springer’s defense would decline over the course of a regular season if he played the same amount of innings as Marte? The wear and tear would catch up to him especially at his age.

Last 4 Years:
Springer: 1700 innings at CF
Marte: 3000 innings at CF

Marte has played close to double the amount of innings Springer has in CF.

 

[Maestro84]

Here before the Mets finish with a 80-82 record in 2022

 

[Maestro84]

Here's what I might do if I were FO now that we're starting to see where the market is headed.

- Sign Ray or Gausman (you gotta have a top-end starter on a winning team)

Pull off one of these trades.

- Trade for Chapman + one of Manaea/Montas/Bassit
or
- Trade for Ketel Marte (he's the cheaper version of JRam and if healthy, he'll mash hitting #2 between Springer and Vlad)

I'd lay off Ramirez until AT LEAST next summer's trade deadline or next year's offseason if the Jays still feel that adding JRam is what's needed to take them over the hump. I also wouldn't do both trades in one offseason as I wouldn't want FO to gut so much of our assets all at once.

Semien had an unbelievable season but I just don't see an aligning future between the Jays and Semien especially if Boras is going to try to get him signed to an albatross contract for like 7 years. Also I strongly believe it's more valuable to retain a top-end starter than an infielder as the former is far less replaceable.

 

[SDig14]

Mariners out on Semien?

 

[SDig14]

I have a weird feeling Mets are going to sign Gausman and Baez still.

 

[SDig14]

Maybe not. Curious there have not been many rumors on teams looking at Ray. Lots of teams apparently in on Gausman.

 

[landy92mack29]

a lot of different paths the Jays FO could take. I'd go with sign Gray, trade kirk+ for Plesac from the Indians as they were supposedly making him available. Then move Pearson+ for Chapman as I like Nate but his health scares me a bit and solidifies 3B for a while. See if Sanchez wants to return but as a pen arm and no way it'd happen because of the baggage attached but Osuna also. Ray scares me on a longterm deal as does Semien but losing Semien as a mentor would hurt

 

[TGB]

In this scenario you could still run with Marte at 2B and use Kirk and Gurriel to grab Jose Ramirez for 3B.

Can we please stop trading high value young players for short term rentals?

 

[HuGort]

If we trade Gurriel for front of rotation starter. What about signing Soler? He was pretty good in playoffs. Has a career .800 OPS.

 

[Discoverer]

You took one put out of it and keyed in on it. I assume you agree with the rest. Regardless, if you throw the late defensive replacement out as you think it’s invalid, the early point stays the same, he only plays 60% of his games in CF to Marte’s 98%.

Do you not think Springer’s defense would decline over the course of a regular season if he played the same amount of innings as Marte? The wear and tear would catch up to him especially at his age.

Last 4 Years:
Springer: 1700 innings at CF
Marte: 3000 innings at CF

Marte has played close to double the amount of innings Springer has in CF.

No, I don't think the wear and tear on Springer would be significantly worse playing a full season in CF vs splitting it between CF/RF. And the sample is big enough that I think it's fair to say it's approximately his true talent level as a defender.

Again, I just think it's a weird way to evaluate defense. Put Marte on the Astros and Jays and he gets the same amount of time in CF as Springer because those teams have elite defenders on the bench.

To be honest, this is mostly semantics. I just thought it was an odd way to look at it when, statistically, Springer has been a better defender in CF.

 

[SDig14]

 

[phillipmike]

Can we please stop trading high value young players for short term rentals?

when have we done that?

 

[phillipmike]

No, I don't think the wear and tear on Springer would be significantly worse playing a full season in CF vs splitting it between CF/RF. And the sample is big enough that I think it's fair to say it's approximately his true talent level as a defender.

Again, I just think it's a weird way to evaluate defense. Put Marte on the Astros and Jays and he gets the same amount of time in CF as Springer because those teams have elite defenders on the bench.

To be honest, this is mostly semantics. I just thought it was an odd way to look at it when, statistically, Springer has been a better defender in CF.

I think to an extent you are possibly right but I’m not saying they are exclusive pulling Springer late in games for his lack of defence, I’m mostly pointing out that he has an extensive injury history and that may be the reason why he is pulled, not exclusively his play.

Which is an additional check in Marte’s column and a minus in Springer’s. Marte can hold up for a full game where the teams he played on had players that could have come in for him, but they didn’t.

 

[SDig14]

when have we done that?

This is what I was wondering as well. We end up with Berrios for 8 years, Ketel Marte has I believe 4 years left and JRam while only having 2 years left could easily be signed after as well.

 

[djdev]

when have we done that?

barrios!

 

[phillipmike]

This is what I was wondering as well. We end up with Berrios for 8 years, Ketel Marte has I believe 4 years left and JRam while only having 2 years left could easily be signed after as well.

My thoughts exactly. I would never trade top prospects for rentals but with Ramirez and Marte we are talking 2-3 years of control for not only players that are top 3 at their positions, they have been MVP candidates and for in perfectly with the core as they are elite defenders, and switch hitters.

I willing to trade Biggio, Gurriel and/or any prospects not named Moreno, Orelvis and possibly Pearson for them.

Makes perfect sense to me.