Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[nhlfan9191]

You never answered the question who, how and when a better center than Dubois will come.
But you don't want him and you don't have big faith in Dach. You go with centers who are 100 to 120 pts without telling us how we're gonna get him. You snubb Dubois and here we are with Dvorak for the next 3 years. . Very enjoyable evenings hockey games for the next 3 years, Cheers !

Unless HuGo can work magic, the next 1-2 years at least aren’t going to be very enjoyable years regardless because we have so many holes all over the lineup. I’ve said it many times, it comes down to the contract and cost of acquisition. If we can get Dubois for around Suzuki money, I don’t mind it as we can move him to the wing if we do find the centre that I’m talking about. Suzuki may even be that center with a better lineup. The issue I’ve brought up is paying him like he’s a star. Once you start talking about $8.5 million+, you’re getting into that territory. Dubois is more or less what you see is what you get at this point. His production has been more or less the same the last 6 seasons. We’ve had good players over the last 20 years here. We haven’t had a game changing forward, more importantly a center in that timeframe however. Is it a crime to want to one of those after a scorched earth rebuild instead of settling for less because you’re afraid management is to incompetent to find thoss kind of players? And you’re being dramatic with the 100-120 point expectation. I’d settle for 80-90+ points.

 

[Rapala]

How do we calculate the impact of physicality, size and grit in the game in a tangible way?

Go into a corner and come out with a puck.

 

[Jaynki]

Go into a corner and come out with a puck.

That is a tangible and can be calcutaled. Is it the direct impact of physicality and size tho? Could smaller player like Gallagher win most of their battle?


Tangible : goal, assist, shot %, corsi, xGF, etc.

Intangible : (impact of) size, physicality, grit, toughness, leadership, fighting, hardness of check etc.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Unless HuGo can work magic, the next 1-2 years at least aren’t going to be very enjoyable years regardless because we have so many holes all over the lineup. I’ve said it many times, it comes down to the contract and cost of acquisition. If we can get Dubois for around Suzuki money, I don’t mind it as we can move him to the wing if we do find the centre that I’m talking about. Suzuki may even be that center with a better lineup. The issue I’ve brought up is paying him like he’s a star. Once you start talking about $8.5 million+, you’re getting into that territory. Dubois is more or less what you see is what you get at this point. His production has been more or less the same the last 6 seasons. We’ve had good players over the last 20 years here. We haven’t had a game changing forward, more importantly a center in that timeframe however. Is it a crime to want to one of those after a scorched earth rebuild instead of settling for less because you’re afraid management is to incompetent to find thoss kind of players? And you’re being dramatic with the 100-120 point expectation. I’d settle for 80-90+.

In the last 20 years we never had a game changer that's true. It takes sometimes many years of big mediocrity to draft one of those game changer. Pittsburg started draft Fleury 1rts overall, then Malkin and then Crosby. Then rules changed and there is as lottery now. Oilers drafted 3 OA : Nugent-Hopkins obviously not the savior type for this franchise, Draisatle is a real good player and McDavid is generational talent. Still not enough to win a Cup. Why ? That team is not well balanced, the D isn't good, same in the goals. Buffalo have decades of good drafting position and still nothing, no PO for them.

The game changer or the saviour is not always the answer. Blues won a Cup without a game changer, same with Carolina and Boston. Even two teams strong and well balanced facing each orher in PO, one of them will eliminate the other. Who will be nthe game changer or who will make the difference? Sometimes it's a player on the 4th line who will score the most important goal. Sometimes a strong defence will neutralise the opposite strong offensive line. There is not only one receipe to win a SC. You can win with a 120 pts game changer and you can win with a well balanced team from player A to player Z.

 

[Scriptor]

He wanted out of Cape Breton ? Did they ever say why?

It's again, a complicated process. He doesn't seem to be mailing it in and wanting to get out of there asap, but if he is, then the whole team is for some reason. Not wanting to commit to a team doesn't mean they don't want to be there. So many players just want to become a free agent and see how much money they want, or they prefer a city to their current one. Players can now get to where they want to play easier.

If you wait until he's a free agent and he doesn't sign with the Habs, then possibly people are right and he didn't really want to be here in the first place and Habs avoid a potential headache.

Now, what I've said a bunch and people ignore, or don't understand is you run the possibility of angering, or upsetting PLD if you wait. There haven't been bread crumbs left that indicate he wants to come here, there have been full on sandwiches left in the media.

Gorton was GM of the Rangers when Trouba wanted to go to the Rangers. Trouba was 1 year from UFA and was RFA when traded. He signed a 1 year deal, took his QO. Rangers acquired him and signed him.

PLD was RFA. Took his QO. He's 1 year away from UFA.

Now, there's a possibility the Habs do get him cheap. Probably not, but there's a chance. Winnipeg might purge some of their players, which means Winnipeg will suck. A sucky Winnipeg wouldn't be scoring as much and PLD will put up less points. A PLD on a team that is trending down (Habs are trending up, but still low) isn't going to care much to play well. Trade deadline an uninterested PLD that's likely set on joining the Habs isn't going to carry much value and they're not likely to get much for him just incase he comes to the new team and doesn't care.

An ideal world, Habs sign PLD, or wait and acquire him at the draft next season with an 8 year contract and they(habs) send over a 3rd for that extra year. However, 32 thoughts podcast said Hughes and Cheveldayoff have had discussions about PLD and the Jets will likely want to deal him and get something, than lose him for nothing next off season.

The rumours would indicate that the Habs will be going for PLD this year and the cost likely won't be that high. Would be awesome to acquire him for a 2nd and a prospect like Rohrer, or something, but time will tell.

Would be awesome to acquire him for a 2nd and a prospect like Rohrer, or something, but time will tell.

Yes, time will tell, but I seriously doubt that a team won't pony up more than what you suggest we would get Dubois for, just as a playoff rental, with WIN holding back half the contract next year, or making a two-way deal to get Dubois even cheaper for then playoffs.

A first rounder and a quality prospect would be in the cards, IMHO.

You could argue that MON's 2nd rounder this season isn't that far off from a late first rounder, but 13 or more draft ranking difference is pretty big in a reputedly deep draft; 25th VS 38th, or 26th VS 39th, let's say.

Montreal can afford to do that this offseason. They might even be able to trade their 2nd round pick and Dvorak, for example, for a late fist round pick and use that late pick, + Beck to land Dubois, and still have their own first round pick and FLA's first round pick to select players with.

Or, they could use the FLA pick to trade for an NHL-ready, potential top-4, puck-moving RHD of the future, that would play with Hutson?

If Hughes pulls something off like that, he adds Dubois to go with Suzuki and Dach as top-6 Center depth, however it plays out as to whom plays C on the top two lines.

Hughes likely drafts another offensive, but two-way C for the 3rd line that has top-6 upside as he continues to develop; Dvorak, if not Fantilli or Carlsson.

With the FLA pick, Hughes lands a top-4 RHD of the future, even if that D is a shutdown D with puck-moving skills and not an offensive dynamo, something much more available and equally valuable to the latter if that RHD is to insulate a LHD like Hutson and let him play up to the promise of his ceiling as an offensive dynamo.

The offseason, for Hughes would be enormously valuable to the rebuild:

IN:

Dubois
Young, Top-4 RHD
Promising C prospect with top-6 ceiling, but 3rd line, two-way C with offensive upside as a floor

OUT:

Dvorak + 2023 MON 2nd round pick for late 1st round pick
late 1st round pick acquired for Dvorak + 2023 MON 2nd round pick
Beck
FLA 1st round pick.

IMO, that's a huge conversion of futures into projectable assets within the age of your young core.

Need a puck protection beast that can pass the puck (Slafkovsky? Roy?).

Need another sniper to fill your top two lines (Roy?)

Off-side/Caufield (sniper) - Suzuki (Center) - Dach (Puck-controlling playmaker)
Slafkovsky (Puck-controlling playmaker) - Dubois (C) - Roy (Sniper?)/Off-side
Heineman/Farrell - Fantilli/Carlsson/Dvorsky (Center) - Mesar/Anderson/Heineman
RHP - ??? - ???

Lots of options for the fourth line and overflow for the top-9. Once those top-2 lines are filled, if not by this upcoming season, by the next one, the offs-sense is pretty much set, IMO.

The D, with the addition of a young, top-four RHD now waits on the development of Mailloux and Hutson that could push the D-Corps over the top with Guhle, Matheson, Xhekaj, a young top-4 RHD, Barron, Harris and Kovacevic, plus Engström coming up through the ranks, still.

Montreal, with a little luck, is already not that many moves away from becoming a contender in a couple (maybe 3) years, but fans will still need to be patient, and Hughes will need to keep the need for a 31G in the back of his mind and be proactive in finding one that can meet the time frame for a contender roster.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I would say handing over a lottery pick first rounder in order to get a guy year early is a tremendous risk.

Yeah the offer sheet is a no go. Winnipeg has no leverage

In the last 20 years we never had a game changer that's true. It takes sometimes many years of big mediocrity to draft one of those game changer. Pittsburg started draft Fleury 1rts overall, then Malkin and then Crosby. Then rules changed and there is as lottery now. Oilers drafted 3 OA : Nugent-Hopkins obviously not the savior type for this franchise, Draisatle is a real good player and McDavid is generational talent. Still not enough to win a Cup. Why ? That team is not well balanced, the D isn't good, same in the goals. Buffalo have decades of good drafting position and still nothing, no PO for them.

The game changer or the saviour is not always the answer. Blues won a Cup without a game changer, same with Carolina and Boston. Even two teams strong and well balanced facing each orher in PO, one of them will eliminate the other. Who will be nthe game changer or who will make the difference? Sometimes it's a player on the 4th line who will score the most important goal. Sometimes a strong defence will neutralise the opposite strong offensive line. There is not only one receipe to win a SC. You can win with a 120 pts game changer and you can win with a well balanced team from player A to player Z.

Yeah I don't think people realize that in the playoffs, it's the team that's more complete and makes the least mistakes while having players who can take advantage of other teams mistakes that win. This isn't the nba

 

[themilosh]

Unless HuGo can work magic, the next 1-2 years at least aren’t going to be very enjoyable years regardless because we have so many holes all over the lineup. I’ve said it many times, it comes down to the contract and cost of acquisition. If we can get Dubois for around Suzuki money, I don’t mind it as we can move him to the wing if we do find the centre that I’m talking about. Suzuki may even be that center with a better lineup. The issue I’ve brought up is paying him like he’s a star. Once you start talking about $8.5 million+, you’re getting into that territory. Dubois is more or less what you see is what you get at this point. His production has been more or less the same the last 6 seasons. We’ve had good players over the last 20 years here. We haven’t had a game changing forward, more importantly a center in that timeframe however. Is it a crime to want to one of those after a scorched earth rebuild instead of settling for less because you’re afraid management is to incompetent to find thoss kind of players? And you’re being dramatic with the 100-120 point expectation. I’d settle for 80-90+ points.

thing is, PLD brings star depth (not superstar) to our top 6 Centers. we now would have 3 x 1b centers, of whom all can play wing. Throw in Caufield, Slaf, and (heinman/roy/farrel) - and you are suddenly looking like the most feared top 6 in hockey! now think of the 3 rd line? even better!! (all without a so-called "superstar")

 

[Scriptor]

In the last 20 years we never had a game changer that's true. It takes sometimes many years of big mediocrity to draft one of those game changer. Pittsburg started draft Fleury 1rts overall, then Malkin and then Crosby. Then rules changed and there is as lottery now. Oilers drafted 3 OA : Nugent-Hopkins obviously not the savior type for this franchise, Draisatle is a real good player and McDavid is generational talent. Still not enough to win a Cup. Why ? That team is not well balanced, the D isn't good, same in the goals. Buffalo have decades of good drafting position and still nothing, no PO for them.

The game changer or the saviour is not always the answer. Blues won a Cup without a game changer, same with Carolina and Boston. Even two teams strong and well balanced facing each orher in PO, one of them will eliminate the other. Who will be nthe game changer or who will make the difference? Sometimes it's a player on the 4th line who will score the most important goal. Sometimes a strong defence will neutralise the opposite strong offensive line. There is not only one receipe to win a SC. You can win with a 120 pts game changer and you can win with a well balanced team from player A to player Z.

This is true - Many recipes to make Pizza.

A game changer also doesn't need to be a 100-point player.

Caufield, with his ability to shift the balance of the game with one shot, out of nowhere, IMO, is a game-changer. Matheson, playing like he plays in the Farkit Zone right now, can be a game changer.

If Roy evolves into that at the NHL level, along with Hutson, and maybe the 2023 1st round pick (lottery win wouldn't hurt), maybe Mailloux, the Habs could be transformed in twofer three years.

The addition of Dubois, like in the case of Suzuki, would help stabilize the loose electrons with solid, two-way play down the middle against the opponents' best players.

Adding Dubois doesn't prevent the few good lottery ticket prospects that we already have and that we will add shortly from becoming huge wins for Montreal.

Things can change dramatically overnight for the Habs (overnight, meaning a couple of years, in respect to waiting 30 years since the last Cup).

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

thing is, PLD brings star depth (not superstar) to our top 6 Centers. we now would have 3 x 1b centers, of whom all can play wing. Throw in Caufield, Slaf, and (heinman/roy/farrel) - and you are suddenly looking like the most feared top 6 in hockey! now think of the 3 rd line? even better!! (all without a so-called "superstar")

You forgot the pick this year. The top 6 with Dubois is complete. The third line will probably be filled with Montreal's best forward prospects. Same with the 4th line. People are too focused on getting a superstar C when they should be thinking about spending cap on a superstar G and getting a top pairing D to play with Guhle. Those are the two major acquisitions that HuGo will be trying to make that'll define where this team goes

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Why most comments are 20 paragraphs long and none of them are talking about Dubois?

 

[Scriptor]

I like idea getting Dubois. But hope we don't give up Harris. He could be a Vince Dunn in 2-3 years.

Losing Harris won't be the love fest with a prospect that would prevent me from trading for Dubois. Not enough of a blue chip at D to prevent the trade, even if I really like Harris.

 

[themilosh]

You forgot the pick this year. The top 6 with Dubois is complete. The third line will probably be filled with Montreal's best forward prospects. Same with the 4th line. People are too focused on getting a superstar C when they should be thinking about spending cap on a superstar G and getting a top pairing D to play with Guhle. Those are the two major acquisitions that HuGo will be trying to make that'll define where this team goes

ive stated before, picking up PLD also opens the door for us to draft Michkov because he will drop to #5.. If we win the lottery the god we are blessed with Bedard (absolutely get PLD) and if we win lottery 2 we take Fantilli!!

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Why most comments are 20 paragraphs long and none of them are talking about Dubois?

 

[Scriptor]

Why are you so convinced he will sign with an other club when he stated multiple times he wants to be a ufa ? If he was open to sign somewhere else, he would already been traded. I never saw multiple "insiders" like Lebrun and Friedman be so sure about a player signing to a specific city. We will see, but if PLD don't come here, it may be the biggest smoke show by hockey medias ever.

If the team you are trade to offers you 10M+ and the market rate is 8.5M, plus that team is one of the favourite destinations for players, he might just sign.

We don't know what will happen and aren't exactly on the ball imagining which way all 31 other NHL teams are heading. Hell, I'll argue that our speculation about the Habs is also way off -- and we're just concentrating on one team!

It just takes a GM on the way out, needing to make a splash to save his job, to offer stupid money to a player in a critical position of need...

Thankfully/hopefully, Dubois will likely stick to his guns when a desperate Chevy's Day Off offers him 10M long term.

Once that gets refused as a contract offer, I'm pretty sure WIN deals Dubois.

It's hard to get unluckier than he was in terms of locations though.

He must have killed another baby in the Ward at the hospital to deserve such bad Karma...

 

[Rapala]

That is a tangible and can be calcutaled. Is it the direct impact of physicality and size tho? Could smaller player like Gallagher win most of their battle?


Tangible : goal, assist, shot %, corsi, xGF, etc.

Intangible : (impact of) size, physicality, grit, toughness, leadership, fighting, hardness of check etc.

Yes it is a direct result of Size/Physicality and it is very tangible for the simple reason that Dubois will use those attributes. In Gallagher's case his winning the puck would be more dependent on his tenacity which could be considered an intangible.

 

[Scriptor]

Yeah, but when things will get tough in Montreal (and we know it will happen sooner or later), how will he deal with it, being probably the highest paid player on the team, francophone and getting all the media attention?

One has ton wonder.

I think it will be less of a problem with St-Louis as a head coach tha Tortorella. Of that, one doesn't need to wonder long.

He'll certainly get around that amount. I don't see him getting less than 7.5 millions.

There will be tons of expectations and pressure with that contract, no matter what.

But less as one of three with similar contracts, if not four, at some point soon enough.

 

[Rapala]

Why most comments are 20 paragraphs long and none of them are talking about Dubois?

When I find myself beyond a paragraph I no longer know what I'm talking about.

 

[Scriptor]

This post is complete and utter garbage. You’re putting words in my mouth and accusing me of making narratives I never made. There was no “hidden message.” My point was we already have what Dubois brings in Suzuki and what we need is a true 1st line center. That’s considerably harder to get when you’re blowing your load cap wise on Dubois.

I've already demonstrated that paying Caufield and Dubois Suzuki money won't prevent us from adding talent, despite your narrative that paying market value for Dubois is blowing our load on him.

Beyond that, other than point-production, which is lazy logic, I don't think we have what we would get from Dubois in Suzuki. The two pivots, while both talented, are not the same profile as a player.

Dubois, 6'4", 214 lbs, also plays like a power Center and, while hard to knock off the puck at 5'11", 205 lbs Suzuki is more of a cerebral Pivot.

While I'm confident that Suzuki can handle the physical matchups against a Mathews and other larger Cs in the league, despite the height and weight disadvantage (helps to have trunks as legs - ask MSL), his physicality is not an aggressive one like Dubois' physicality.

A true 1st line C is what I believe that Suzuki can become on a well balanced team and with good complementary wingers.

In fact, I believe that Suzuki, playing again with Caufield and Dach, provided we had an actual 2nd line and another puck-moving D, or two, would be a PPG C, in the top-20 Cs in the league (that's what it takes to be in the top-20 -- PPG).

At which point, Dubois progressing to at least 70 points, because of the same reasons -- balanced lineup with skill and complimentary wingers -- would be an excellent Center to have as the second pivot on the depth chart.

Both players, IMHO, would look good in playoff matchups against the opponents' better players. Just being able to come out on the net positive in goals scored at even strength, would allow MON to win through its' talented depth on the bottom-6, courtesy of not paying anyone 11M, 12M or more.

Special teams would be the difference maker and that is something that would need to be addressed, but that can be doe through systems and set plays when you have talented players, even of they aren't generational players.

Let's see if Dubois ever becomes a Hab, first, and let's see how Hughes continues to build his team beyond that?

I honestly believe that MON is not as Shitt Out of Luck as some maintain they are, to justify wasting development years for Suzuki, Dach, Caufield, Guhle, Xhekaj and Barron in order to suck the wet end and hopefully draft top-3 if we are lottery lucky.

 

[Scriptor]

Question, was Jonathan Toews a true no.1 C? How about Patrice Bergeron during the Bruins runs in the early to mid 2010s? Also you're presuming Suzuki and PLD will stay at their current pace and never get better. Suzuki was on pace for at least PPG before Caufield got hurt, and Dach moved to a different line and he was basically playing with bums and non elite player

During their SC runs and throughout most of their career these Centres were not PPG:

Kopitar
Toews
Bergeron
O'Reilly
Backstrom

I assume the poster thinks that they suck?

 

[Scriptor]

He never say who, how and when the 100 pts center will come.

I beleive we can win with 3 centers putting between 60 to 70 points. A well balanced team can work.

I believe we can, but I also don't think it will happen (3 Cs getting between 60 and 70 points on the same team, unless St-Louis plays a team built on a top-9 foundation up front, with 9 minutes for the fourth line (plus PK time) and an average of 17 minutes per line distributed almost evenly at even strength (PP time making the difference between TOI for the top-9).

I can't guarantee that HuGo will build a team that way, so I won't hold my breath about having three 60-70 point Cs at the same time.

However, with enough depth on the top-9, even if Dach plays on the wing in the top-6, for example, I can't see how Suzuki wouldn't become the regular PPG C that would fit the other poster's true #1 definition and I can't see how, conversely, Dubois would not be a regular 70+ point C.

My lack of panic concerning the need for a tru #1C, f we land Dubois, is that Suzuki, with Dubois as depth behind him, should become a true #1C.

There is also hope that we land a promising C at the 2023 draft. depending on whom it is, that C could become true #1C, a strong 2nd line C in support of a true #1 C or a solid Danault-esque shutdown C helping the other two Cs get better offensive numbers by taking on the hard defensive assignments at even strength and the PK duties, all in order to keep the two more offensive Cs fresher when they take to the ice.

Just get Dubois and draft a good C at the 2023 draft -- Bedard, Fantilli or Carlsson with a little lottery, or Dvorsky without! After that, everything else is within range and can fall into place; getting another sniper and a playmaking, puck possession beast for the top-6, and a good partner on the right side for when Hutson arrives on the scene.

The starting G, with Montembeault as an adequate backup is my only real concern beyond that...

 

[Scriptor]

Unless HuGo can work magic, the next 1-2 years at least aren’t going to be very enjoyable years regardless because we have so many holes all over the lineup. I’ve said it many times, it comes down to the contract and cost of acquisition. If we can get Dubois for around Suzuki money, I don’t mind it as we can move him to the wing if we do find the centre that I’m talking about. Suzuki may even be that center with a better lineup. The issue I’ve brought up is paying him like he’s a star. Once you start talking about $8.5 million+, you’re getting into that territory. Dubois is more or less what you see is what you get at this point. His production has been more or less the same the last 6 seasons. We’ve had good players over the last 20 years here. We haven’t had a game changing forward, more importantly a center in that timeframe however. Is it a crime to want to one of those after a scorched earth rebuild instead of settling for less because you’re afraid management is to incompetent to find thoss kind of players? And you’re being dramatic with the 100-120 point expectation. I’d settle for 80-90+ points.

I've demonstrated and will argue that signing Dubois ti Suzuki money is achievable just through the structure of the contract you propose to Dubois and his agent.

Suzuki's contract has little front-loading and barely any bonus money.

Maximizing both those components on a Dubois contract keeps the cap hit around Suzuki's Cap hit, but the future dollar and net fiscal end of the contract near the 8.5M a year range -- with the added insurance that at least 85% of the salary would be shielded from a lockout because it would be paid out in bonuses.

I agree that Suzuki money makes it more logical money paid out if Dubois gets switched to the wing because a young C proves to be the Wow factor.

 

[nhlfan9191]

I assume the poster thinks that they suck?

Where did I say that he sucks? You aren’t reading what I’m posting and repeatedly twisting my words and misquoting me. You’re one of two posters in this thread that have done this over and over. Someone not having the same infatuation you have with a player doesn’t mean they’re saying “he sucks.” In fact I’ve said he’s a good player multiple times. I’ve voiced my opinion as clear as I could. I’m not repeating the same thing over and over. Scroll up and actually read. If you don’t like what I’m saying to the point you are quoting me multiple times with the same points that have nothing to do with what I’m saying, put me on ignore. You consistently putting words in my mouth is borderline trolling.

 

[SwiftyHab]

We could probably mine a thousand BitCoins with the computing power this thread is taking up.

 

[Walrus26]

Am I the only one to be worried about the fact, that, at 24 y old, it is already the 3rd time Dubois wants to move from a team?

In junior, Columbus and now Winnipeg...

Columbus and Winnipeg are arguably the biggest toilets out of all the Amercian and Candaidan hockey cities, respectively. Maybe, just maybe, he's actually got his own agenda and that's to be Billy Big Bollocks in Montreal and be the true home-town star and saviour of the French-Canadian universe?

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I assume the poster thinks that they suck?

No he just seems to think Suzuki and PLD will stay at 60-70 pt players. Personally, I think Suzuki gets to at least PPG if Caufield stays healthy

Columbus and Winnipeg are arguably the biggest toilets out of all the Amercian and Candaidan hockey cities, respectively. Maybe, just maybe, he's actually got his own agenda and that's to be Billy Big Bollocks in Montreal and be the true home-town star and saviour of the French-Canadian universe?

He's on that Kawhi Leonard life