Are you drunk? He will NOT sign an offer sheet for more than one year and take the chance that it is matched. He might risk a 1 year offer sheet and hope Winnipeg doesn't want to lose him for nothing.
Indeed! If Dubois sign-and-trade talks fall through, the likeliest scenario is that he accepts his QO to make sure he (finally!) acquires UFA-status next summer. In that case, the Jets would then have a last window to obtain assets (late 1st + A prospect) in return for his services at TDL 2024.
As for the offer sheet nuclear option, Dubois won’t consider anything beyond one year for sure; the risk of the Jets matching and him being stuck long term in Winnipeg is otherwise too great.
So if the Habs send a 6.4M 1-year offer sheet, where would each interested Party stand?
I see no reason not to sign from Dubois’ POV; it’s slightest better than his 6M QO; it takes him away from Winnipeg sooner and he furthermore gains instant leverage in contract renewals with Montreal.
Does Winnipeg match? In other words, how does the Habs’ unprotected 2024 1st round pick compare with the assets that could otherwise be fetched by renting Dubois at TDL 2024?
If the Jets management thinks the Habs are lottery-pick bound next year, it’s a strong incentive not to match, especially since matching means
relinquishing all possibility of trading Dubois at next TDL. For that very same reason, even if the Jets think the Habs could be a bubble playoffs team and that their 1st could be in the #17+ range, they could nevertheless consider not matching because #17+ could still be better than
relinquishing a contender’s late first + prospect.
As for the Habs however, should they send the offer to begin with?
As mentioned above, such OS would theoretically give much bargaining power to UFA-to-be Dubois. The latter’s interest to play in Montreal seems genuine, but there’s always a risk that contract talks derail. At the other side of the spectrum, a quick resolution with mutually beneficial terms (lower AAV, higher bonuses, etc.) as soon as next January could raise suspicions of rules circumvention. Having no reason not to assume Dubois’ good faith regarding his interest to play in Montreal, I think the risk of contract complications is quite manageable in this case.
And that’s why Montreal is the only team that could reasonably consider an offer sheet in Dubois’ specific situation.
Regarding the risk entailed by sending an unprotected 2024 1st to Winnipeg, it gets much trickier, especially if one (like myself) thinks the Habs will be picking in the second tier - in the #11-21 range; right in-between the « lottery treshold » at #16…
