Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[BergevinBurner]

So which contending team is willing to deal multiple roster components knowing they’re renting PLD?

Probably not many, but I can guarantee that Dvorak+ would be outbid in a heartbeat.

 

[OnTheRun]

Probably not many, but I can guarantee that Dvorak+ would be outbid in a heartbeat.

In a way yes, but PLD has the power to nix trades however, the competition could be thinner than expected.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Like I said, you didn't rundown the replies or else you would've found those answers.

With a sign and trade, you're using that prime asset to get him one year earlier, hence you are paying for that one year no matter what. It's pointless if the player is adamant on coming here.

Better to see if he's true to his word rather than gamble a first rounder right smack in the middle of a rebuild.

With respect, it is a bit more complex than that.

First, a 31/32 pick plus a semi-cap dump (Dvorak) plus a B prospect is not PRIME ASSET. There is always a slight chance of a star, but in the last 30 years, we have not drafted one good player between 23-32.

Second you are not paying this for one year. You are paying this for the certainty of having him for 8 years at an affordable salary. Yes, we can wait a year and see if we get him in UFA and at what cost, but there is value in certainty. Of course, I stop the talks if Dubois wants a higher cap hit than Suzuki.

Dubois has no "word" to be true to. He did not verbally agree to some contract. He just said, apparently, that Montreal is a place he'd be interested to play. Hre also never said that Montreal is the ONLY place he would be willing to play.

His willingness to play for the Habs makes him a more attractive target than the perhaps 60% of players who would not want to play here if they had the free choice. Which in turn means that he can likely be paid a reasonable salary, and does not require $2-3M extra to overcome the dislike of Montreal and be a mercenary.

If we can get Dubois for around $7.5M long-term while freeing Dvorak's cap hit, we will still have more than enough cap room to get a BIG star if one becomes available the following year, and a second when Gallagher's contract is done.

It's about building piece by piece, but without overpaying.

 

[nhlfan9191]

With respect, it is a bit more complex than that.

First, a 31/32 pick plus a semi-cap dump (Dvorak) plus a B prospect is not PRIME ASSET. There is always a slight chance of a star, but in the last 30 years, we have not drafted one good player between 23-32.

Second you are not paying this for one year. You are paying this for the certainty of having him for 8 years at an affordable salary. Yes, we can wait a year and see if we get him in UFA and at what cost, but there is value in certainty. Of course, I stop the talks if Dubois wants a higher cap hit than Suzuki.

Dubois has no "word" to be true to. He did not verbally agree to some contract. He just said, apparently, that Montreal is a place he'd be interested to play. Hre also never said that Montreal is the ONLY place he would be willing to play.

His willingness to play for the Habs makes him a more attractive target than the perhaps 60% of players who would not want to play here if they had the free choice. Which in turn means that he can likely be paid a reasonable salary, and does not require $2-3M extra to overcome the dislike of Montreal and be a mercenary.

If we can get Dubois for around $7.5M long-term while freeing Dvorak's cap hit, we will still have more than enough cap room to get a BIG star if one becomes available the following year, and a second when Gallagher's contract is done.

It's about building piece by piece, but without overpaying.

I don’t think anyone in this thread has ever said they wouldn’t do it if the cards play out perfectly like in your scenario. The problem with what you’re proposing is that it doesn’t sound remotely realistic with that we know so far. He wants to test free agency, which is what him and his agent have done everything to put him in a position to do as quickly as possible, making him extremely unlikely to accept a reasonabe long term deal at Suzuki money or an extension before he hits free agency at all.

 

[OnTheRun]

I don’t think anyone in this thread has ever said they wouldn’t do it if the cards play out perfectly like in your scenario. The problem with what you’re proposing is that it doesn’t sound remotely realistic with that we know so far. He wants to test free agency, which is what him and his agent have done everything to put him in a position to do as quickly as possible, making him extremely unlikely to accept a reasonabe long term deal at Suzuki money or an extension before he hits free agency at all.

The Habs won't be making a trade that doesn't make sense for them. They are not the one on the clock here.
If the Jets demands are absurd, they pass.
If PLD demands are absurd, they pass.

I'm really not sure how we managed to push close to 170 pages without progressing beyond that basic point. (If the Habs were willing to give up the moon no questions asked, PLD would have been traded last year.)

 

[nhlfan9191]

The Habs won't be making a trade that doesn't make sense for them. They are not the one on the clock here.
If the Jets demands are absurd, they pass.
If PLD demands are absurd, they pass.

I'm really not sure how we managed to push close to 170 pages without progressing beyond that basic point. (If the Habs were willing to give up the moon no questions asked, PLD would have been traded last year.)

We got to 170 pages because there are a bunch of overexcited fans who don’t get that and the debate gets ripped open again. There are some people in here that believe Dubois is a unicorn when he’s not.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

The Habs won't be making a trade that doesn't make sense for them. They are not the one on the clock here.
If the Jets demands are absurd, they pass.
If PLD demands are absurd, they pass.

I'm really not sure how we managed to push close to 170 pages without progressing beyond that basic point. (If the Habs were willing to give up the moon no questions asked, PLD would have been traded last year.)

There's significant disagreement about what's reasonable for the Habs to give up and what isn't. And what's a reasonable cap and what isn't. That takes up most of the 170 pages.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

The Habs won't be making a trade that doesn't make sense for them. They are not the one on the clock here.
If the Jets demands are absurd, they pass.
If PLD demands are absurd, they pass.

I'm really not sure how we managed to push close to 170 pages without progressing beyond that basic point. (If the Habs were willing to give up the moon no questions asked, PLD would have been traded last year.)

No doubt it would be over 300 pages if the player in question’s name was Dawson. Or perhaps not.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

I say we should put our effort in acquiring Lafrenière instead of Dubois. He will be cheaper and his age match well with the rest of our building core.

Also NYR needs match well with our strength (they need left handed defenseman) and they need good players now to contend for the cup while Winnipeg are a bubble team.

If Dubois is still available next summer we could make strong push.

 

[Rapala]

No doubt it would be over 300 pages if the player in question’s name was Dawson. Or perhaps not.

Dawson wouild already be red flagged.

 

[OnTheRun]

No doubt it would be over 300 pages if the player in question’s name was Dawson. Or perhaps not.

Maybe... The main issue is there isn't a "Dawson" letting out via his agent that he would like to play for the Montreal Canadiens while taking steps to force his way out from his current team. So there isn't a honest debate to have on that, just a cynical one.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here...

Can't PLD wait until July 1st hits, then the Habs send him an offer sheet for 1 year at 6 million dollars knowing full well Jets will match, but in doing so it blocks the Jets from being able to trade PLD throughout the season, essentially bringing him to UFA where the Habs can sign him and thus not worry about the Jets trading PLD to a team that might resign him?

 

[OnTheRun]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here...

Can't PLD wait until July 1st hits, then the Habs send him an offer sheet for 1 year at 6 million dollars knowing full well Jets will match, but in doing so it blocks the Jets from being able to trade PLD throughout the season, essentially bringing him to UFA where the Habs can sign him and thus not worry about the Jets trading PLD to a team that might resign him?

There is no rule against it if that's the question. But 5D Chess Marc isn't running this team anymore. So no, not happening.

 

[Redux91]

I say we should put our effort in acquiring Lafrenière instead of Dubois. He will be cheaper and his age match well with the rest of our building core.

Also NYR needs match well with our strength (they need left handed defenseman) and they need good players now to contend for the cup while Winnipeg are a bubble team.

Watch this end up happening instead lol

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

At this point, I would do Harris for Laffreniere, nothing more.

And even then, I feel traders remorse...

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Maybe... The main issue is there isn't a "Dawson" letting out via his agent that he would like to play for the Montreal Canadiens while taking steps to force his way out from his current team. So there isn't a honest debate to have on that, just a cynical one.

The problem is that all other teams and agents know that if there is a home town hero available, its like waving a red flag in front of a bull to the team's management and a large segment of the team's fan base. It's so predictable .... as the 170 pages so amply show.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Chevy comes off as an intransigent GM and in that market he simply can't lose trades - as no one wants to sign there.
It seems completely true he asked for suzuki, Guhle etc --pieces that habs would never move.
I'm sure he wants Kirby Dach. His ceiling, that amazing contract...
it will be fascinating to see what Hughes does.
Habs want to get bigger but will then be moving one big guy for another.
Who do they see with the higher upside? It's game of chicken. If Jets are getting Kirby, then they ain't getting much more from the Habs that's for sure.

I think who is available at 5OA will affect the trade decision.
But I don't think PLD only wants to play for he habs and it's entirely possible Hughes values Dach like PLD and they wait until he's available summer 2024 -
and in that case they have probably resigned themselves to the fact he may sign longterm elsewhere

 

[OnTheRun]

The problem is that all other teams and agents know that if there is a home town hero available, its like waving a red flag in front of a bull to the team's management and a large segment of the team's fan base. It's so predictable .... as the 170 pages so amply show.

The problem is probably to presume something bad is going to happen based solely on the player's ethnicity.

 

[JohnTheBaptist]

Chevy comes off as an intransigent GM and in that market he simply can't lose trades - as no one wants to sign there.
It seems completely true he asked for suzuki, Guhle etc --pieces that habs would never move.
I'm sure he wants Kirby Dach. His ceiling, that amazing contract...
it will be fascinating to see what Hughes does.
Habs want to get bigger but will then be moving one big guy for another.
Who do they see with the higher upside? It's game of chicken. If Jets are getting Kirby, then they ain't getting much more from the Habs that's for sure.

I think who is available at 5OA will affect the trade decision.
But I don't think PLD only wants to play for he habs and it's entirely possible Hughes values Dach like PLD and they wait until he's available summer 2024 -
and in that case they have probably resigned themselves to the fact he may sign longterm elsewhere

Dach is untouchable, his ceiling is higher than PLD in my opinion.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

The problem is probably to presume something bad is going to happen based solely on the player's ethnicity.

I’ve been watching this team for almost 70 years. No presumption is necessary. If you don’t think ethnicity is a motivational factor in Montreal’s personnel decisions, then you’ve been living under a rock. 170 pages droning on about a largely inconsequential player is all the confirmation you need.

 

[sheed36]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here...

Can't PLD wait until July 1st hits, then the Habs send him an offer sheet for 1 year at 6 million dollars knowing full well Jets will match, but in doing so it blocks the Jets from being able to trade PLD throughout the season, essentially bringing him to UFA where the Habs can sign him and thus not worry about the Jets trading PLD to a team that might resign him?

I doubt the Habs would pull a dick move like that (which would most likely come back to bite them in the ass again in the future) but if they or any other team did it would really put the Jets in a huge jam.

In that scenario though the Jets would pretty much be forced to not match the OS and take the Habs unprotected 24 1st and 24 3rd round picks instead of losing PLD for absolutely nothing.

I think whatever happens between PLD and the Jets will be sorted before July 1st since I can't see the Jets risk losing that asset for nothing and just to prevent such a scenario from even possibly happening.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

I pass on Dubois unless he takes some type of discount to come here. Or a shorter contract.

Not willing to pay him more than 7.5M.

 

[OnTheRun]

I’ve been watching this team for almost 70 years. No presumption is necessary. If you don’t think ethnicity is a motivational factor in Montreal’s personnel decisions, then you’ve been living under rock. 170 pages droning on about a largely inconsequential player is all the confirmation you need.

Motivational factor and predetermining the outcome of something based on ethnicity are two very different things.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here...

Can't PLD wait until July 1st hits, then the Habs send him an offer sheet for 1 year at 6 million dollars knowing full well Jets will match, but in doing so it blocks the Jets from being able to trade PLD throughout the season, essentially bringing him to UFA where the Habs can sign him and thus not worry about the Jets trading PLD to a team that might resign him?

This has been discussed. No way Winnipeg matches if Montreal’s 2024 unprotected first is being offered as compensation for one year of Dubois. Our first rounder next year as of now has way more value then whatever they’ll get in a rental. HuGo wouldn’t be stupid enough to do something like that and Chevy wouldn’t be stupid enough to decline if we did.

 

[Scriptor]

I’ve been watching this team for almost 70 years. No presumption is necessary. If you don’t think ethnicity is a motivational factor in Montreal’s personnel decisions, then you’ve been living under rock. 170 pages droning on about a largely inconsequential player is all the confirmation you need.

Your opinion that PLD is largely inconsequential may lie more in his ethnicity than the player's skill level because he is not worthless. Your bias isn't even thinly veiled

I, for one, do not look to acquire PLD strictly because he is a local product. I like the package that PLD represents; a larger, two-way C that isn't reticent to have a net presence, something we sorely lack.

The bonus isn't that he is a local product, but rather that he isn't afraid to come to Montreal in his prime (something he is entering in the coming years), even though he is a local product.

Brière was the last example of a local player that refused to come to Montreal in his prime because of the pressure and family impacts associated with coming to Montreal (kids getting teased at school at the first scoring drought, for example).

The timing is good because Dubois doesn't have kids yet and, even if he was to have some next year, the kids wouldn't be of school age until the very latter part of a long term contract.

You are entitled to dislike the player, though, for whatever reason, but I'd argue that other posters liking the player AS A PLAYER are not out to lunch, as you suggest.