Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Goldthorpe]

Why would the League not like it? RFA rules allow GM's to talk to the agents. Not like we would have offer sheeted him but we could have. Brisson knows what he is doing and there was nothing he did that was against the rules.

RFA only means the rights are restricted. If there is no contract in place, the Agent can say and talk to whatever team he chooses to do so.

I could see the league having an issue with the whole process being public.

I follow the NBA on the side, and one drastic difference (among many) with the NHL is how powerful stars are, and how every year there's an handful of top players who publicly ask to be traded for one reason or another. And teams comply, leading to wild trades that just don't happen very often in hockey. This has a delebitating impact on the NBA quality and fans enjoyment, as the "mercenary" aspect of free agency is put front and center.

I'm sure the same tractations and player requests also happen in other sports (like hockey), but I kind of understand why the league would prefer them to remain behind closed doors.

 

[SlafySZN]

How long should we continue to accumulate good prospects? Because at a certain point it won't make sense for us to keep Suzuki anymore. You can't just keep getting prospects without giving them mentors and high-end players they can learn from. The window we have now is going to be based off Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Guhle. Maybe Slafkovsky. There are some guys who are still on the cusp of becoming core pieces like Barron, Harris, Xhekaj.

If we draft a Bedard type, you can include him too. Otherwise anyone we draft, or any prospects we are acquiring (unless they are ready to step into the NHL) are not going to be part of this current "rebuild" core. They'll be supporting pieces for the future.

So the question you need to ask yourself is whether you feel the current core group is enough to turn this team around. If they aren't, then you need to add to it (like a PLD type) or you move them out and try to build around Slaf + other prospects closer to his development curve.

Going too quick with shortcuts is what will prevent those guys winning in the long run, not the couples of years of wait for them to be well surrounded.

 

[Adriatic]

I could see the league having an issue with the whole process being public.

I follow the NBA on the side, and one drastic difference (among many) with the NHL is how powerful stars are, and how every year there's an handful of top players who publicly ask to be traded for one reason or another. And teams comply, leading to wild trades that just don't happen very often in hockey. This has a delebitating impact on the NBA quality and fans enjoyment, as the "mercenary" aspect of free agency is put front and center.

I'm sure the same tractations and player requests also happen in other sports (like hockey), but I kind of understand why the league would prefer them to remain behind closed doors.

Inmates running the asylum, one of things I hate most about the NBA.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Going too quick with shortcuts is what will prevent those guys winning in the long run, not the couples of years of wait for them to be well surrounded.

What marginal difference does Dubois make to our 2024 1st round pick? Is the difference in where we'll pick going to be enough to make up for the certainty that Dubois is already a good player that's panned out and not a prospect with an uncertain outcome? I'm pretty skeptical of that, and it's a bit of a catch-22 if the point is to justify not trading for him (if Dubois is good enough to ruin our 2024 pick that means we should just be happy to have him anyway).

I understand the principle here, and I wouldn't have wanted to sign Horvat, wouldn't have wanted Copp or Trocheck last year, was fine with letting Danault walk in a vacuum, etc., I just don't see how it applies in this situation. Trading for Dubois at a discount is not taking shortcuts, he'd be a central part of the rebuild and the new core the team is building at just a year older than Suzuki.

I guess I'm just not really sure what makes trading for 24 year old Dubois at a discount an impatient shortcut, while sitting on the opportunity cost of 23-year-old Suzuki's much higher trade value is congruent with your vision of a rebuild. I guess what I'm saying is, if it's too early for us to add Dubois doesn't that beg the question of whether or not we should just trade Suzuki for futures and build around Dach + develop another top 6C with our 2023-2025 picks? Opportunity costs are costs too, and holding on to Suzuki carries a pretty heavy opportunity cost.

Of course that's not what I actually want, but to me, the logical conclusion of the idea that Dubois is too much of a luxury/shortcut right now would be to trade Suzuki and build around Dach + the huge pile of futures we get for him.

 

[nhlfan9191]

What marginal difference does Dubois make to our 2024 1st round pick? Is the difference in where we'll pick going to be enough to make up for the certainty that Dubois is already a good player that's panned out and not a prospect with an uncertain outcome? I'm pretty skeptical of that, and it's a bit of a catch-22 if the point is to justify not trading for him (if Dubois is good enough to ruin our 2024 pick that means we should just be happy to have him anyway).

I understand the principle here, and I wouldn't have wanted to sign Horvat, wouldn't have wanted Copp or Trocheck last year, was fine with letting Danault walk in a vacuum, etc., I just don't see how it applies in this situation. Trading for Dubois at a discount is not taking shortcuts, he'd be a central part of the rebuild and the new core the team is building at just a year older than Suzuki.

I guess I'm just not really sure what makes trading for 24 year old Dubois at a discount an impatient shortcut, while sitting on the opportunity cost of 23-year-old Suzuki's much higher trade value is congruent with your vision of a rebuild. I guess what I'm saying is, if it's too early for us to add Dubois doesn't that beg the question of whether or not we should just trade Suzuki for futures and build around Dach + develop another top 6C with our 2023-2025 picks? Opportunity costs are costs too, and holding on to Suzuki carries a pretty heavy opportunity cost.

Of course that's not what I actually want, but to me, the logical conclusion of the idea that Dubois is too much of a luxury/shortcut right now would be to trade Suzuki and build around Dach + the huge pile of futures we get for him.

We don’t know if a trade involving him will be at a discount. If we’re trading assets for him, it has to be with long term contract in place and who knows what Winnipeg will want for that security. We also don’t know how serious he is about playing with us. His agent could’ve been using us to get leverage on other teams for all we know. And if he is interested in signing with us, there’s no guarentee his contract ask will be reasonable. A lot of things have to go right for this to work where everybody is happy.

 

[Canadienna]

I wonder if the Jets go on a run if Dubois decides to stay?

 

[sampollock]

I wonder if the Jets go on a run if Dubois decides to stay?

dont think so, he will go UFA and the bruins will get him. so Kent better step in

 

[Mudz]

I wonder if the Jets go on a run if Dubois decides to stay?

Doubtful. It doesn't impact the reasons why Dubois seems highly likely to come to MTL.

It might makes it harder for him to be traded this summer tho.

 

[JoelWarlord]

We don’t know if a trade involving him will be at a discount.

We do though, because they're not going to trade for him otherwise. If Winnipeg isn't willing to give us the Trouba deal then we just don't make the trade. Gorton was literally in this exact situation a few years ago with Trouba and there's no reason to trade for Dubois if it's not at a similar price. The entire concept of trading for him is predicated on him being available for less than market price, and they just won't trade for him if that turns out not to be the case.

If we’re trading assets for him, it has to be with long term contract in place and who knows what Winnipeg will want for that security.

This is another caveat that I'm not particularly worried about because they simply won't make the trade without an extension. He'll be an RFA this summer and doesn't actually have a contract for 23-24, so we could sign him long-term right away and wouldn't have to wait until January for an extension. Winnipeg can try to ask for more for this privilege but they don't have much leverage if we're the only team he'll sign long-term with since nobody else would be able to offer more than his value as a rental.

We also don’t know how serious he is about playing with us. His agent could’ve been using us to get leverage on other teams for all we know. And if he is interested in signing with us, there’s no guarentee his contract ask will be reasonable. A lot of things have to go right for this to work where everybody is happy.

I'm a broken record now but I'm not really worried about this either because the deal just won't happen if the ask is outrageous. The likely outcome is he's going to ask for 8.75 using Larkin + Horvat as his comparables, the Habs will counter with 7.875 using Suzuki as the comparable, and they'll settle in the 8 to 8.25 range. If he's not willing to settle there, the Habs move on, as we're not trading for him without a contract already ironed out. I don't think the idea of his agent using this story to gain leverage with other teams makes much sense either, because the way this is playing out publicly only gives him leverage to get traded away from the Jets, it doesn't help him maximize his contract value with other teams who might be scared off of trading for him in the first place which limits his negotiating options.

If the public rumours were simply "Dubois is interested in playing for the Canadiens" I would understand this argument, but it doesn't serve the interests of Dubois or his agent to sit quietly while Winnipeg beat writers and Friedman/Kypreos report that they have 95% certainty that he is only willing to sign long term with the Habs unless that's actually the truth, because all it does is give the Habs leverage to ask him to take less money, and scares away other trade destinations who are cagey about paying a big price for a guy who won't sign with them. If that reporting turns out to be false, once again we just won't trade for him or participate in a bidding war.

 

[SlafySZN]

What marginal difference does Dubois make to our 2024 1st round pick? Is the difference in where we'll pick going to be enough to make up for the certainty that Dubois is already a good player that's panned out and not a prospect with an uncertain outcome? I'm pretty skeptical of that, and it's a bit of a catch-22 if the point is to justify not trading for him (if Dubois is good enough to ruin our 2024 pick that means we should just be happy to have him anyway).

I understand the principle here, and I wouldn't have wanted to sign Horvat, wouldn't have wanted Copp or Trocheck last year, was fine with letting Danault walk in a vacuum, etc., I just don't see how it applies in this situation. Trading for Dubois at a discount is not taking shortcuts, he'd be a central part of the rebuild and the new core the team is building at just a year older than Suzuki.

I guess I'm just not really sure what makes trading for 24 year old Dubois at a discount an impatient shortcut, while sitting on the opportunity cost of 23-year-old Suzuki's much higher trade value is congruent with your vision of a rebuild. I guess what I'm saying is, if it's too early for us to add Dubois doesn't that beg the question of whether or not we should just trade Suzuki for futures and build around Dach + develop another top 6C with our 2023-2025 picks? Opportunity costs are costs too, and holding on to Suzuki carries a pretty heavy opportunity cost.

Of course that's not what I actually want, but to me, the logical conclusion of the idea that Dubois is too much of a luxury/shortcut right now would be to trade Suzuki and build around Dach + the huge pile of futures we get for him.

Depends, if he help you win 10 more games and you finish 21-22nd in the league, not really.

I wasn’t specifically speaking about Dubois, though. It was more in general.

The poster said we would have to make some addition so ‘’suzuki, caufield, dach’’ doesn’t get their prime ruined, which in my opinion i see their potential be ruined if the team doesn’t take their time and make some trades just to compete quicker but in the end always be a ‘’bubble’’ team, then their prime would’ve been ruined way more than waiting 2-3 years. They’re not ready to compete now as a group anyway.

 

[nhlfan9191]

We do though, because they're not going to trade for him otherwise. If Winnipeg isn't willing to give us the Trouba deal then we just don't make the trade. Gorton was literally in this exact situation a few years ago with Trouba and there's no reason to trade for Dubois if it's not at a similar price. The entire concept of trading for him is predicated on him being available for less than market price, and they just won't trade for him if that turns out not to be the case.

This is another caveat that I'm not particularly worried about because they simply won't make the trade without an extension. He'll be an RFA this summer and doesn't actually have a contract for 23-24, so we could sign him long-term right away and wouldn't have to wait until January for an extension. Winnipeg can try to ask for more for this privilege but they don't have much leverage if we're the only team he'll sign long-term with since nobody else would be able to offer more than his value as a rental.

I'm a broken record now but I'm not really worried about this either because the deal just won't happen if the ask is outrageous. The likely outcome is he's going to ask for 8.75 using Larkin + Horvat as his comparables, the Habs will counter with 7.875 using Suzuki as the comparable, and they'll settle in the 8 to 8.25 range. If he's not willing to settle there, the Habs move on, as we're not trading for him without a contract already ironed out. I don't think the idea of his agent using this story to gain leverage with other teams makes much sense either, because the way this is playing out publicly only gives him leverage to get traded away from the Jets, it doesn't help him maximize his contract value with other teams who might be scared off of trading for him in the first place which limits his negotiating options.

If the public rumours were simply "Dubois is interested in playing for the Canadiens" I would understand this argument, but it doesn't serve the interests of Dubois or his agent to sit quietly while Winnipeg beat writers and Friedman/Kypreos report that they have 95% certainty that he is only willing to sign long term with the Habs unless that's actually the truth, because all it does is give the Habs leverage to ask him to take less money, and scares away other trade destinations who are cagey about paying a big price for a guy who won't sign with them. If that reporting turns out to be false, once again we just won't trade for him or participate in a bidding war.

Really fair response. Respect to you.

 

[jaffy27]

I wonder if the Jets go on a run if Dubois decides to stay?

In the end, it’s still Winnipeg. Good looking rich guy like him wants the Montreal lifestyle and why wouldn’t he

 

[JoelWarlord]

Depends, if he help you win 10 more games and you finish 21-22nd in the league, not really.

If the difference between having Dubois on the roster and not having him is 10 wins then we should be willing to pay basically any reasonable price for him. That's like...a prime Carey Price level impact.

I understand the concern about us currently lacking a true franchise forward assuming no lottery win this year, but I don't think that's a reason to pass on Dubois given he's not going to be some singular force that ends our rebuild prematurely. I don't think this team is likely to be in the running for a top 5 pick again next year without a repeat of this year's cartoonishly bad injuries so I'm not particularly worried about Dubois taking us from something like 8th to 10th or 11th pre-lottery in 2024.

I wasn’t specifically speaking about Dubois, though. It was more in general.

The poster said we would have to make some addition so ‘’suzuki, caufield, dach’’ doesn’t get their prime ruined, which in my opinion i see their potential be ruined if the team doesn’t take their time and make some trades just to compete quicker but in the end always be a ‘’bubble’’ team, then their prime would’ve been ruined way more than waiting 2-3 years. They’re not ready to compete now as a group anyway.

Fair enough. What I'm mostly saying is that the specifics of the player in question make all the difference to me. I agree that signing/trading for a guy like Copp, Trocheck, Horvat, or similar would have been a shortcut that would hurt us in the long term. Those guys are all 28 so we wouldn't be competitive before they were 30 at the earliest and we'd have the entire back end of the contract to deal with. In Dubois' case though, he's only 13 months older than Suzuki who we're currently building around anyway, and wouldn't even be 32 years old by the end of the cup final of year 8 of an 8-year contract.

Ultimately I just don't really see this as a shortcut or something that would hurt us long term. He's 24. They aren't interested in adding Dubois to skip a rebuild and desperately try to make a playoff push for next year, they're interested in him to be PART of the rebuild because he's around Suzuki's age and the two of them will still be big pieces for us next year, 3 years from now, and 7 years from now. The team would just add Dubois and keep the rebuild process going because he's better than anyone we'd reasonably get at the 17th pick, and that certainty is absolutely worth the risk of moving a couple of places down the lottery order in 2024/potentially 2025 IMO given that he's young enough that he'll be a strong core player through the entire 8 year extension.

 

[HABitual Fan]

If you feel he is a difference maker, and his being on the team makes the 24 first less valuable than the Florida 17th, just offer sheet him and pay the 1st and the 3rd in the 24 draft. Winnipeg can't match as he becomes untradeable and they lose him for nothing. Montreal and Winnipeg are lousy trade partners, both looking for RHD, so just give the picks in 24 and move on, if he wants to be a Hab he will sign it. Move the extra bodies like Dvo for 24 and 25 draft picks and call it an offseason.

 

[Ezpz]

If you feel he is a difference maker, and his being on the team makes the 24 first less valuable than the Florida 17th, just offer sheet him and pay the 1st and the 3rd in the 24 draft. Winnipeg can't match as he becomes untradeable and they lose him for nothing. Montreal and Winnipeg are lousy trade partners, both looking for RHD, so just give the picks in 24 and move on, if he wants to be a Hab he will sign it. Move the extra bodies like Dvo for 24 and 25 draft picks and call it an offseason.

Even with dubois this is a non-playoff team. Unless they feel the players at 17 this year are better than the ones in the 9-15 range next year.

 

[jaffy27]

Even with dubois this is a non-playoff team. Unless they feel the players at 17 this year are better than the ones in the 9-15 range next year.

How about Dubois and Fantilli….or Dubois and Bedard??

Top 9 would be

Suzuki
Caufield
Dach
Dubois
Bedard/Fantilli
Anderson
Gurianov
Slaf
Heineman

I see a lot of goals in that group

 

[TomKosto]

How about Dubois and Fantilli….or Dubois and Bedard??

Top 9 would be

Suzuki
Caufield
Dach
Dubois
Bedard/Fantilli
Anderson
Gurianov
Slaf
Heineman

I see a lot of goals in that group

Bedard and Fantilli are really good prospects, but they will still be rookie in the best league in the world, just ask McJesus how hard is it to make the playoff and make a run. I'll also be worried to start Fantilli in the NHL next year. He's too good for the NCAA but not NHL ready, not the most cerebral player and won't have that physical advantage in his first year.

 

[waffledave]

Going too quick with shortcuts is what will prevent those guys winning in the long run, not the couples of years of wait for them to be well surrounded.

You think PLD is a shortcut? Dude hes 1 year older than Suzuki lmao. This is getting ridiculous.

 

[TomKosto]

You think PLD is a shortcut? Dude hes 1 year older than Suzuki lmao. This is getting ridiculous.

We should trade Suzuki for picks, too old.

 

[ZUKI]

Drouin is so much of a playoff performer that the team went to the cup final when he was gone from the team.

i agree with you ; we didn't win the Cup because he wasn't there

 

[Ezpz]

How about Dubois and Fantilli….or Dubois and Bedard??

Top 9 would be

Suzuki
Caufield
Dach
Dubois
Bedard/Fantilli
Anderson
Gurianov
Slaf
Heineman

I see a lot of goals in that group

Look at how many goals buffalo's top 9 scored. When you have a tandem of Montembault and Allen in this division you don't have a hope.

Also there's zero chance gurianov is qualified if we get a top 2 pick and dubois. I would say it's unlikely he gets qualified even as of now.

 

[Benstheman]

Look at how many goals buffalo's top 9 scored. When you have a tandem of Montembault and Allen in this division you don't have a hope.

Also there's zero chance gurianov is qualified if we get a top 2 pick and dubois. I would say it's unlikely he gets qualified even as of now.

He still can sign a contract with the Habs even if not qualified

 

[Habricot]

I like Dubois, would like what he would bring to the team. He is not flashy but plays a smart game and his a playoff performer. But how much of an upgrade would he be over a healthy Monahan?

Trading for Dubois I would say yes if the price is not too steep which will certainly be the case and would only do it if we can shed salary.

 

[SlafySZN]

You think PLD is a shortcut? Dude hes 1 year older than Suzuki lmao. This is getting ridiculous.

I already said in another comment i wasn’t talking specifically about Dubois and more about the comment that the habs would supposedly waste suzuki/caufield/dach’s years if they don’t trade for players to help those guys win now.

 

[dinodebino]

He's everywhere tonight. Looks like a bull on the ice.

Can't believe he will be part of our core.

He's freaking 24 and can dominate playoff hockey. What's not to love?

He WILL?