Blue Jays Discussion: It's here! it's here! it's here! it's here! Baseball season begins!(WARNING:post 728)
- Thread starter The Nemesis
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BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
GDT up.
NOTICE ABOUT THE SPLIT BLUE JAYS THREADS & HF JAYS CONDUCT/RULES (for new posters)
If you haven't been around the HF TML board before to see the Blue Jays discussion, know that it is a little quirky. Due to the high demand for Jays talk, it was decided that there would be 2 types of threads for the Blue Jays: a Discussion thread, and a GDT.
The Discussion thread is for all non-game-specific Jays talk and activity. Any time there is not a game going on, posts go in the discussion thread. If your topic does not relate to the game being discussed in the GDT, or does not come from a conversation that is happening in the GDT, put it in the discussion thread.
The GDT is for discussion of the game going on and for tangential discussions that occur during the game (like any other hockey GDT on the site). It is up to the mods to determine if talk is getting too tangential for the GDT or not, but generally it's a pretty relaxed attitude as long as you're not trying to talk about something that fits better in another thread (like the hockey games going on). Under most circumstances, the GDTs are locked when a game is not happening. A mod should unlock it 30 min to 1 hour before scheduled game time (going by broadcast start time, not necessarily 1st pitch) and will likely close it by 30-45min after the game concludes, when it looks like discussion is thinning out some.
If a GDT is not open and a game is beginning, use the report post feature to alert an outside mod to unlock the thread. Just fill in a request for an unlock in the text field the report function creates.
Also note that while this is the Leafs board, it was decided long ago by all participants involved (and not just the mods) that Jays threads are what amounts to neutral territory. In other words, you leave your hockey allegiance at the door and simply be a Blue Jays fan. Fans from non-Leaf teams (a group to which I belong) are welcome to participate and post in the threads. You may playfully rib others about hockey or whatever, but try to avoid anything that could be viewed as inflammatory, especially against the Leafs since they are being gracious enough to host these threads for everyone instead of forcing traffic to the general MLB sub-board on here. The HF Jays community has long included fans from all 7 Canadian fanbases, along with fans of the Devils, Predators, Bruins, Sharks, Coyotes, Stars, and more. The fact that we have a fairly tight-knit group that gets along when most inter-fanbase interactions on HF have significant challenges is something to be proud of and something that we should strive to keep intact.
If you have a problem or question relating to the HF Jays threads, PM one of the usual Jays-fan mods, BertCorbeau, King Mapes, or myself. Or any other Leaf mod since this is their board.
Thanks everyone. Let's have a great 2016 season.
NOTICE ABOUT THE SPLIT BLUE JAYS THREADS & HF JAYS CONDUCT/RULES (for new posters)
If you haven't been around the HF TML board before to see the Blue Jays discussion, know that it is a little quirky. Due to the high demand for Jays talk, it was decided that there would be 2 types of threads for the Blue Jays: a Discussion thread, and a GDT.
The Discussion thread is for all non-game-specific Jays talk and activity. Any time there is not a game going on, posts go in the discussion thread. If your topic does not relate to the game being discussed in the GDT, or does not come from a conversation that is happening in the GDT, put it in the discussion thread.
The GDT is for discussion of the game going on and for tangential discussions that occur during the game (like any other hockey GDT on the site). It is up to the mods to determine if talk is getting too tangential for the GDT or not, but generally it's a pretty relaxed attitude as long as you're not trying to talk about something that fits better in another thread (like the hockey games going on). Under most circumstances, the GDTs are locked when a game is not happening. A mod should unlock it 30 min to 1 hour before scheduled game time (going by broadcast start time, not necessarily 1st pitch) and will likely close it by 30-45min after the game concludes, when it looks like discussion is thinning out some.
If a GDT is not open and a game is beginning, use the report post feature to alert an outside mod to unlock the thread. Just fill in a request for an unlock in the text field the report function creates.
Also note that while this is the Leafs board, it was decided long ago by all participants involved (and not just the mods) that Jays threads are what amounts to neutral territory. In other words, you leave your hockey allegiance at the door and simply be a Blue Jays fan. Fans from non-Leaf teams (a group to which I belong) are welcome to participate and post in the threads. You may playfully rib others about hockey or whatever, but try to avoid anything that could be viewed as inflammatory, especially against the Leafs since they are being gracious enough to host these threads for everyone instead of forcing traffic to the general MLB sub-board on here. The HF Jays community has long included fans from all 7 Canadian fanbases, along with fans of the Devils, Predators, Bruins, Sharks, Coyotes, Stars, and more. The fact that we have a fairly tight-knit group that gets along when most inter-fanbase interactions on HF have significant challenges is something to be proud of and something that we should strive to keep intact.
If you have a problem or question relating to the HF Jays threads, PM one of the usual Jays-fan mods, BertCorbeau, King Mapes, or myself. Or any other Leaf mod since this is their board.
Thanks everyone. Let's have a great 2016 season.
Last edited:
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
Projections are great and everything, but they have their limits and it's always good to look at more information. I always like to look at recent actual production to get a different perspective than projections which imo sometimes factor in outdated data too heavily, and sometimes inherently regress extreme good and bad performances too heavily. One year of data is pretty small and easy to look up, so I go with a 2yr sample which I find has served me well in the past.
To keep eyes from completely glazing over I try to hone this down to 3 most relevant stats for each player:
1. plate appearances and innings pitched. as always, the bigger the sample the better, and the numbers for guys with only a partial season worth of pa or ip obviously have to be taken with a healthy dose of salt.
2. wRC+for hitters and ERA- for pitchers. these are imo the best frontline numbers to use to measure "how well they helped score or prevent runs". neither is complete but imo the best numbers to use. remember that the + and - mean these numbers are pegged to league average, with 100 being average, 120 being 20% above avg and 80 being 20% below.
3. WAR pace. WAR helps us factor in defense for hitters and underlying numbers and leverage for pitchers. To give us as much info as possible I use 2 types of WAR for each player. For pitchers I use fipwar and ra9war, both available on fangraphs and both splittable into RP and SP performance. For hitters I use both fangraphs' and baseball reference's WAR. What I do is average both WAR and then pace it out to full seasons to give us a level comparison like era- and fip- pegged to league average. Full seasons I say are 650pa for hitters, 32 starts for SP, and 65ip for RP. Note that these are not projections - they are simply an attempt to turn WAR into a rate stat. Always look at the sample size given to assess the reliability of that rate stat.
Note: Stats for SP are only as SP, stats for RP are only as RP.
Last 2yrs Stats
* = on DL
SP Stroman (25): 24gs, 77era-, 4.9war/32gs
SP Dickey (41): 67gs, 96era-, 2.4war/32gs
SP Happ (33): 57gs, 100era-, 2.6war/32gs
SP Estrada* (32): 46gs, 100era-, 1.9war/32gs
SP Sanchez (23): 11gs, 87era-, 1.9war/32gs
(SP Floyd (33): 9gs, 73era-, 2.3war/32gs)
(SP Chavez (32): 47gs, 103era-, 2.3war/32gs)
(SP Hutch (25): 60gs, 124era-, 1.3war/32gs)
RP Storen (28): 111.1ip, 59era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Osuna (21): 69.2ip, 63era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Cecil (29): 107.2ip, 65era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Floyd (33): 13.1ip, 68era-, 0.7war/65ip
RP Loup* (28): 111.0ip, 92era-, 0.4war/65ip
RP Morales (30): 86.0ip, 88era-, 0.2war/65ip
RP Chavez (32): 27.0ip, 72era-, 0.1war/65ip
(RP Leon (27): 26.2ip, 112era-, -0.1war/65ip)
(RP Biagini (26): ----------------------------------)
1.2B Travis* (25): 238pa, 135wrc+, 6.4war/650pa
2.3B Donaldson (30): 1406pa, 141wrc+, 7.3war/650pa
3.RF Bautista (35): 1339pa, 154wrc+, 5.3war/650pa
4.DH En’con (33): 1166pa, 150wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
5.SS Tulowitzki (31): 909pa, 129wrc+, 5.7war/650pa
6.C Martin (33): 967pa, 127wrc+, 5.8war/650pa
7.1B Colabello (32): 580pa, 120wrc+, -0.2war/650pa
8.LF Saunders (29): 299pa, 117wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
9.CF Pillar (27): 750pa, 93wrc+, 4.8war/650pa
UT Smoak (29): 604pa, 94wrc+, 0.9war/650pa
OF Carrera (29): 265pa, 86wrc+, -0.3war/650pa
IF Goins (28): 621pa, 67wrc+, 1.9war/650pa
C Thole (29): 202pa, 63wrc+, -1.8war/650pa
(OF Pompey (23): 146pa, 88wrc+, 2.5war/650pa)
(OF Ceciliani (26): 75pa, 58wrc+, 4.3war/650pa)
(IF Barney (30): 292pa, 84wrc+, 3.6war/650pa)
(C Sanchez (28): 89pa, 94wrc+, 1.8war/650pa)
Team is kinda good.
To keep eyes from completely glazing over I try to hone this down to 3 most relevant stats for each player:
1. plate appearances and innings pitched. as always, the bigger the sample the better, and the numbers for guys with only a partial season worth of pa or ip obviously have to be taken with a healthy dose of salt.
2. wRC+for hitters and ERA- for pitchers. these are imo the best frontline numbers to use to measure "how well they helped score or prevent runs". neither is complete but imo the best numbers to use. remember that the + and - mean these numbers are pegged to league average, with 100 being average, 120 being 20% above avg and 80 being 20% below.
3. WAR pace. WAR helps us factor in defense for hitters and underlying numbers and leverage for pitchers. To give us as much info as possible I use 2 types of WAR for each player. For pitchers I use fipwar and ra9war, both available on fangraphs and both splittable into RP and SP performance. For hitters I use both fangraphs' and baseball reference's WAR. What I do is average both WAR and then pace it out to full seasons to give us a level comparison like era- and fip- pegged to league average. Full seasons I say are 650pa for hitters, 32 starts for SP, and 65ip for RP. Note that these are not projections - they are simply an attempt to turn WAR into a rate stat. Always look at the sample size given to assess the reliability of that rate stat.
Note: Stats for SP are only as SP, stats for RP are only as RP.
Last 2yrs Stats
* = on DL
SP Stroman (25): 24gs, 77era-, 4.9war/32gs
SP Dickey (41): 67gs, 96era-, 2.4war/32gs
SP Happ (33): 57gs, 100era-, 2.6war/32gs
SP Estrada* (32): 46gs, 100era-, 1.9war/32gs
SP Sanchez (23): 11gs, 87era-, 1.9war/32gs
(SP Floyd (33): 9gs, 73era-, 2.3war/32gs)
(SP Chavez (32): 47gs, 103era-, 2.3war/32gs)
(SP Hutch (25): 60gs, 124era-, 1.3war/32gs)
RP Storen (28): 111.1ip, 59era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Osuna (21): 69.2ip, 63era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Cecil (29): 107.2ip, 65era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Floyd (33): 13.1ip, 68era-, 0.7war/65ip
RP Loup* (28): 111.0ip, 92era-, 0.4war/65ip
RP Morales (30): 86.0ip, 88era-, 0.2war/65ip
RP Chavez (32): 27.0ip, 72era-, 0.1war/65ip
(RP Leon (27): 26.2ip, 112era-, -0.1war/65ip)
(RP Biagini (26): ----------------------------------)
1.2B Travis* (25): 238pa, 135wrc+, 6.4war/650pa
2.3B Donaldson (30): 1406pa, 141wrc+, 7.3war/650pa
3.RF Bautista (35): 1339pa, 154wrc+, 5.3war/650pa
4.DH En’con (33): 1166pa, 150wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
5.SS Tulowitzki (31): 909pa, 129wrc+, 5.7war/650pa
6.C Martin (33): 967pa, 127wrc+, 5.8war/650pa
7.1B Colabello (32): 580pa, 120wrc+, -0.2war/650pa
8.LF Saunders (29): 299pa, 117wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
9.CF Pillar (27): 750pa, 93wrc+, 4.8war/650pa
UT Smoak (29): 604pa, 94wrc+, 0.9war/650pa
OF Carrera (29): 265pa, 86wrc+, -0.3war/650pa
IF Goins (28): 621pa, 67wrc+, 1.9war/650pa
C Thole (29): 202pa, 63wrc+, -1.8war/650pa
(OF Pompey (23): 146pa, 88wrc+, 2.5war/650pa)
(OF Ceciliani (26): 75pa, 58wrc+, 4.3war/650pa)
(IF Barney (30): 292pa, 84wrc+, 3.6war/650pa)
(C Sanchez (28): 89pa, 94wrc+, 1.8war/650pa)
Team is kinda good.
Last edited:
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
looking at those numbers now the only annoyance on the roster is carrera. the rest of the bench gives us good defense with their questionable bats, but carrera is just bad - and both pompey and Ceciliani are likely better options.
but that's as nitpicky as I'll get.
but that's as nitpicky as I'll get.
TF97
Registered User
Colabello in the lineup over Smoak. I get it's just day one but if Smoak isn't going to face righties then why is he on the team.
weems
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2008
- 18,329
- 12,072
I was kinda suprised to be honest.
Smoak had a great spring while Colabello didnt and Smoak actually has had decent success against Archer. Plus we face Smyly tomorrow and hes basically unhittable against lefties.
ShaneFalco
Registered User
Suntouchable13
Registered User
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
Okay... as I said, I firmly believe Pillar leading off will be the death of me. Pretty inane **** from Gibby there.
Despite all that... thank god we're finally back.
Despite all that... thank god we're finally back.
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
It has the capacity to be annoying. Lots of guys hovering around .320 wOBA.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
I got the impression from gibby that he was leaning towards cola in more of a fulltime role this year.
But i bet their spring performances put some doubt in his mind, and bet cola's leash is shorter than it might have been.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
their home park and use of platoons always deceives - but that lineup is really not bad, and is built to be able to give league average production from top to bottom.
Leaf Rocket
Leaf Fan Till I Die
Pillar, love to see him have a big breakout year for hitting. Ease EE out of the city in a less painful fashion.
TF97
Registered User
The thought of Pillar leading off is enough to hurt my brain. I can't imagine what seeing it actually happen in a regular season game will do...
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
No, Osuna was named closer a few days ago. Storen takes over the setup innings with Cecil.
TootooTrain
Sandpaper
- Jun 12, 2010
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Embrace the franchise pillar TF.
Haven't looked it up, but I assume Bello has hit Archer a bit better than Smoak. That would be the only reason I can think of. I'm sure we'll see the big smoak in the latter parts of the game.
weems
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2008
- 18,329
- 12,072
I just dont understand it with us facing Smyly tomorrow who absolutely dominates left handed batters. Why would you play Colabello today vs a elite RH and play Smoak tomorrow against one of the stingiest against lefties? Unless they plan on playing Colabello the first 2 games which would be suprising. Add in the fact Smoak was arguably our best hitter in spring and has faired alright against Archer.
weems
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2008
- 18,329
- 12,072
Embrace the franchise pillar TF.
Haven't looked it up, but I assume Bello has hit Archer a bit better than Smoak. That would be the only reason I can think of. I'm sure we'll see the big smoak in the latter parts of the game.
Colabello is 1 for 2 against Archer.
Smoak is 6 for 19 against Archer.
TootooTrain
Sandpaper
- Jun 12, 2010
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