Blue Jays Discussion: It's here! it's here! it's here! it's here! Baseball season begins!(WARNING:post 728)

[habamillions]

did they make it worth buying . I have got the last 5 in a row

I just bought a ps4 this christmas so i didnt have a baseball game for it.

 

[Eyedea]

It's 15-10 in the KC/SF game and they are just entering the 6th.

 

[TootooTrain]

It's 15-10 in the KC/SF game and they are just entering the 6th.

I feel bad for the player that goes 0-4.

 

[The Nemesis]

I feel bad for the player that goes 0-4.

Matt Duffy and Ali Castillo of the Giants were both 0-4. Few Royals were even in for 4 PAs and those that were got at least a hit or a walk.

 

[King Mapes]

did they make it worth buying . I have got the last 5 in a row

I got the new one and had 15 as well. Haven't played it in depth yet but you can open or close the roof now and they show cool in between innings of the city. Batting seems better as well. It was actually a bigger upgrade than with most games Imo. Diamond Dynasty is apparently a lot better too but I don't really play it.

It loads slow though. Likely a kink that will get better as time goes on.

 

[canwincup]

I really hope Sanchez can lock down the 5th spot and keep it, anyone else concerned with Dickey this year?

 

[Gargyn]

I really hope Sanchez can lock down the 5th spot and keep it, anyone else concerned with Dickey this year?

of course. but at the end of the year, dickey will be hovering around 10-12 wins, era around 4.5 and around 200ip. he provides innings but he sure as hell is not a top pitcher anymore.

 

[The Nemesis]

of course. but at the end of the year, dickey will be hovering around 10-12 wins, era around 4.5 and around 200ip. he provides innings but he sure as hell is not a top pitcher anymore.

Not quite sure where you're getting 4.50 ERA from. He hit 4.21 in his first Jays year and then went 2 straight years under 4.00 (3.71 and 3.91)

And while we're at it, he honestly never was a "top pitcher" except for that one amazing year. His other Mets years were both very good, but they weren't so much better than his Jays performance that you say "where did that guy disappear to?" People groan at Dickey as if his predictability is somehow a detriment, but how many teams do you think would love to have a guy in the middle of their rotation who can give you an ERA around/slightly lower than 4, 200 innings by rarely going less than 6 full innings per game, a good # of strikeouts (I'm calling his massive drop to less than 5.5 k/9 and aberration at this point) and the potential to go out there and spin a complete game 9+ strikeout, <5 hit gem a few times a year?

Dickey is the unsexy name in the rotation, but he's kind off a perfect mid-rotation guy. He saves the pen, can build off of the successes ahead of him or be a streak-stopper potentially. And his knuckleball setup means he's unlikely to get hurt. Basically he continues to be what Buehrle was for the first couple of Jays years. If there wasn't all that weird conformist outrage that Dickey is a "trick pitcher" who doesn't fit in because he doesn't throw what everyone else does, he'd get more love and be ragged on less for crazy crap like being inherently more unreliable or whatever.

I don't have the data or time at this moment, but I have serious doubts about any sort of assumption that there's a greater variance in performance for a guy like R.A. Dickey just because he throws a knuckler compared to other similarly profiling pitchers (profile being based on a similar overall level of impact and durability. Like for example if you were to take guys over the last 3 seasons who have total fWAR between 5 and 6 and at least 450 IP in that span. That's a list of 9 names: Mike Leake, Jorge de la Rosa, Wade Miley, Doug Fister, Dickey, Matt Garza, Jon Niese, CJ Wilson (lol Angels), and Travis Wood. I would wager that if you looked at that batch of names just in terms off game-to-game performance variance, they wouldn't seem all that different than Dickey)

Also c'mon, are we not past counting wins as a measure of anything for an individual pitcher?

Wow. I kinda went off on a tangent there.

 

[Discoverer]

Yeah, Dickey's become underrated because he didn't live up to expectations, but multiple teams committed $80+ million this offseason to pitchers with similar value.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Dickey is a very useful pitcher to have....I absolutely hate watching him pitch but he does provide value.

 

[Canada4Gold]

So that means

Positional starters:

Martin(C)
Smoak/Colabello(1B)
Goins(2B)
Tulo(SS)
Donaldson(3B)
Bautista(RF)
Pillar(CF)
Saunders(LF)
EE(DH)

Bench:

Thole(C)
Colabello/Smoak(1B/PH)
Barney(IF/MIF/2B)
Carrera(OF/PR)

Rotation:

Stroman
Dickey
Sanchez
Happ
Estrada(DL until April 10th)

Bullpen:

Osuna(CL)
Storen
Cecil
Floyd
Chavez
Leon
Biagini
Tepera

and 1 of the bottom 3 there have to go down/back to Giants when Estrada comes off DL on the 10th

I wish Burns and Venditte had made it, but I can't really argue with the bench. I expected Barney to make it the moment we knew Travis would miss the start of the year. And I figured they'd want a full time backup outfielder instead of a utility man.

Venditte I would have had in there over both Leon and Tepera, but oh well.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Closer: Osuna
Set up: Storen
Set up: Cecil
The Rest: Chavez, Floyd, Biaggini, Tepera, Leon

4th OF: #Zeke

Also, the non-inclusion of Vindette and cutting of Choate leads me to believe Loup will be back sooner rather than later.

 

[phillipmike]

I really hope Sanchez can lock down the 5th spot and keep it, anyone else concerned with Dickey this year?

I had concern over every start... But i bet Dickey has a fantastic year this season as most FA do... Has a great regular season which gives him playoff starts and screws us over. I bet that happens...

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Ew why Carrera?

 

[Kurtz]

Hmm, seems very odd to piss off Storen on the brink of the season. Also to start the year without a loogy.

 

[Discoverer]

Carrera would have been my fourth choice for that last bench spot behind Burns, Lake, and Ceciliani (and Pompey, too, if it weren't for the development part). Even if you decide you want Pompey, Burns, and Ceciliani in AAA because they all have options, I would have taken Lake over Carrera.

Ultimately, it's a pretty minor quibble since he probably won't get much playing time anyway, but I don't like the choice.

And I wanted Venditte to make the pen, but that's an even more minor quibble.

 

[dredeye]

I know Carerra was out of options so that likely played a part. I did think a couple others were as well. Not big on Carerra as he doesn't really help any position but lf.

I'll add that if all these guys make it down to Buffalo they'll have a hell of of outfield

 

[BertCorbeau]

I had concern over every start... But i bet Dickey has a fantastic year this season as most FA do... Has a great regular season which gives him playoff starts and screws us over. I bet that happens...

History says Dickey will have a slow start, people will get mad at him, and then turn it on in the second half of the season.

 

[Eyedea]

Hmm, seems very odd to piss off Storen on the brink of the season. Also to start the year without a loogy.

He said during the offseason that he didn't care if he pitched the 8th or 9th. He understands that it really isn't about the saves so long as you're an elite reliever. He'll get paid if he racks up a good year.

 

[zeke]

I guess the silver lining on carrera is that since he's not better at anything than any of the starters, then gibbons will play him as little as possible. Sure would have liked a guy with true CF defense and a bit more upside at the plate, though - and we have at least 2 of them in the minors now. Hard to see how he makes us a better team than the alternatives.

And I don't know if the best reliever should be the "closer" but at least there's a solid argument that Osuna is just better than Storen, so I don't have much issue there, even if both have question marks.

Last Year:

Storen: 55.0ip, 87era-, 73fip-, 84xfip-, 1.2fwar, 0.5ra9war
Osuna: 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.3fwar, 2.0ra9war

Last 2 Years (avg):

Storen: 55.2ip, 59era-, 73fip-, 88xfip-, 1.1fwar, 1.5ra9war
Osuna: 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.3fwar, 2.0ra9war

Career (avg):

Storen: 55.2ip, 78era-, 81fip-, 90xfip-, 0.8fwar, 0.9ra9war
Osuna: 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.3fwar, 2.0ra9war


Also in Osuna's favor is that he's only 21 and age curve indicates improvement, and that he did this in the AL east while Storen was in the NL East. On the other hand, against Osuna is that he's only done it one year and is hardly reliable yet.

In this case the decision may have swung on who's looked better this spring, and based on second hand evidence Storen's lack of Ks may have indicated that he was less impressive.

 

[zeke]

And hey for all of Shapiro's great depth, it's funny that all of Biagini,Leon, and tepera are on the team, eh?

 

[zeke]

of course. but at the end of the year, dickey will be hovering around 10-12 wins, era around 4.5 and around 200ip. he provides innings but he sure as hell is not a top pitcher anymore.

Last 2 years as SP:

Dickey: 210.0ip/yr, 3.81era, 96era-
Happ: 162.0ip/yr, 3.86era, 100era-
Estrada: 138.2ip/yr, 3.91era, 100era-

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Last 2 years as SP:

Dickey: 210.0ip/yr, 3.81era, 96era-
Happ: 162.0ip/yr, 3.86era, 100era-
Estrada: 138.2ip/yr, 3.91era, 100era-

Two years is such an odd sample size to employ. Its almost as if one is attempting to frame an argument.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Hmm, seems very odd to piss off Storen on the brink of the season. Also to start the year without a loogy.

Pissed or not (which I don't subscribe to at all), Drew Storen will pitch as well as possible simply because it will dictate how much he gets paid in the offseason.

I'm sure his agent is saying the same thing. Andrew Miller got 4 years, $36USDMM off of 1 save. Set up guys are getting paid too these days.

 

[zeke]

personally I've found it a very good sample size to employ (and better than an unweighted 3year sample for example), and I always use it regardless of what it says.

You may be looking at it backwards - I don't use the 2yr sample to support my opinions, I use them to help create my opinions.

But we could look at 3yr sample if you prefer:

Dickey: 218.1ip/yr, 3.95era, 98era-
Estrada: 135.1ip/yr, 3.91era, 100era-
Happ: 138.2ip/yr, 4.02era, 103era-