Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[Loosie]

It's a good team, that got off to a bad start, and is now dealing with injuries. It sucks. I don't see any 'blowing things up' yet though.

 

[hoglund]

It's a good team, that got off to a bad start, and is now dealing with injuries. It sucks. I don't see any 'blowing things up' yet though.

I agree, the Jays were 9- 16 in April of 1989 and went on to win the division, give it another month and if things haven't improved, then worry, but not yet.

 

[theaub]

Current status of Jays clubhouse

 

[zeke]

1. I don't understand why stroman was pulled on 100 pitches, given the state and overuse of the bullpen. especially with longo at the plate. if there was ever a time to push your Ace last night was it. weird call from gibby.

2. one thing i'm a little annoyed with gibby on is him thinking grilli is anything more than an ok middle reliever, with HR problems. bringging him in to face the power bats was ludicrous imo. based on the numbers there's no reason for him to be one of the go-to late inning relievers....even if he's able to keep doing what he did last year, which is no aure thing at his age.

3. looks like biagini's HR luck from last year is evening out, unfortunately. he should still be fine but probably not as good as last year.

4. Osuna pulling a cecil has really thrown the bullpen off. No saving the pen if he doesn't get back on track.

5. The numbers coming into the year said loup and barnes were likely to be 2 of our better relievers. Start using them that way.

 

[zeke]

vladdy banged his knee. hopefully it was a precautionary pull.

 

[ShaneFalco]

It's a good team, that got off to a bad start, and is now dealing with injuries. It sucks. I don't see any 'blowing things up' yet though.

Thing is they're an old team that can't seem to hit for long stretches of time. We saw it last year too.
Tulo, Travis, JB, and Pearce are all injury prone.
The bullpen is a bit of a mess.....

Just does't add up a team that can go on a long winning streak. I hope I'm wrong

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Thing is they're an old team that can't seem to hit for long stretches of time. We saw it last year too.
Tulo, Travis, JB, and Pearce are all injury prone.
The bullpen is a bit of a mess.....

Just does't add up a team that can go on a long winning streak. I hope I'm wrong

Too many inconsistent hitters. Hard to imagine them all syncing up at the same time to go on a really solid run. Maybe if our approach at the plate had changed at all in the last 3 years I'd have a little more faith...

 

[hoglund]

Too many inconsistent hitters. Hard to imagine them all syncing up at the same time to go on a really solid run. Maybe if our approach at the plate had changed at all in the last 3 years I'd have a little more faith...

It's also hard to imagine that all the bats would go silent at once, but they did, so it's just as possible for them to all come to life at once and start a long winning streak.

 

[Morgs]

Does anybody think we should trade Pillar if he keeps these numbers up? Or do you think if he keeps this up, he's a piece we have to keep.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I'd keep Pillar

Man Morales is slow

 

[Canada4Gold]

Does anybody think we should trade Pillar if he keeps these numbers up? Or do you think if he keeps this up, he's a piece we have to keep.

Honestly, it probably depends on how far down the rebuild rabbit hole you go. If you're looking towards next year then no. If you sell of Donaldson, Estrada and look towards 2019 then maybe. If you consider that Sanchez, Stroman, and Osuna only have 3-4 years of control left and decide to sell off some of them then absolutely.

Even if his bat stays like it is now, most of his value comes from his defense, which will eventually decline with age. He won't be the same player even in 3 years time, and will obviously be more expensive as he nears and reaches free agency. In essence you will be paying more for much less.

Long term you're almost certainly better selling off so it depends on when you plan on being good again. If he has a great offensive year then can he get an Adam Eaton type of return? Probably not that high still but you know you could get something really good.

Also depend on what you have coming behind him. Pompey hopefully can fill a spot when healthy, Alford is a year or so away. After that you can't really count on anyone.

 

[King Mapes]

Too many inconsistent hitters. Hard to imagine them all syncing up at the same time to go on a really solid run. Maybe if our approach at the plate had changed at all in the last 3 years I'd have a little more faith...

Consistency isn't the issue imo, it's injuries. Guys like Coghlan will obv be inconsistent while filling in for JD. Even a healthy JD is still hurting a lot of times and plays hurt which leads to inconsistency. Tulo is also rarely healthy so he gets banged up which makes him inconsistent. Pillar said before the year he was changing his approach but I still doubt he keeps it up. Our best hitters are injury prone and that's the key. Plus BP is a fickle thing and impossible to predict and it's been horrid. I loved the thought of a Grilli/Biagini/Osuna Pen but 2/3 of that has sucked which is hard to predict. There was concerns about Osuna after watching him before the season though.

 

[metafour]

I agree, the Jays were 9- 16 in April of 1989 and went on to win the division, give it another month and if things haven't improved, then worry, but not yet.

You are hilarious.

This team isn't good enough to play at the pace that they'd have to play at for the remainder of the season in order to climb out of this start. Realize that this was a team that, before everything went wrong, was going to battle for a ~89 win type season this year. They now have to play at like a ~96-97 win pace the remainder of the season just to hit those ~89 wins it takes to put you into the WC. So after looking horrendous over 20+ games, they now have to play dramatically better than anyone would have ever predicted going into this season just to make up for this start. **** like that just doesn't happen, which is why the number of teams who have come back from these types of starts is virtually nonexistent.

The updated PECOTA predictions going into today had us finishing with a 75-87 record. That simulated prediction doesn't even include the possibility of us dealing several pieces at the deadline.

 

[hd1344]

I think with Pillar, he is a guy that you can keep for the long term (as of right now).

He has enough holes in his bat, and doesn't walk a ton that he would be fairly affordable in that sense. (Until proven otherwise in a larger sample). Likewise, unless a team is desperate for any sort of CFer, then I wouldn't expect an overpay for KP, IMO.

 

[metafour]

Pillar is actually at -1.9 UZR and -1 DRS to date which means that he's been a negative fielder. I would absolutely look to move Pillar for the right offer because the longevity of defensive-oriented center fielders is terrible, and I don't buy that he's all of a sudden a 150+ wRC+ hitter regardless of how much he's improved. He very likely could be declining defensively as we speak.

 

[hd1344]

Pillar is actually at -1.9 UZR and -1 DRS to date which means that he's been a negative fielder. I would absolutely look to move Pillar for the right offer because the longevity of defensive-oriented center fielders is terrible, and I don't buy that he's all of a sudden a 150+ wRC+ hitter regardless of how much he's improved. He very likely could be declining defensively as we speak.

Thanks for that, I was admittedly only looking at overall WAR the past 3 seasons as compared to Kiermaier, and Pillar was still roughly 7 WAR behind, despite Kiermaier missing a huge chunk last yr.

I agree that his offense this year remains to be proven long-term. My point about keeping him was more in the sense that he wouldn't fetch as much as trade chip, more about asset management. With the Jays seemingly on their way to retooling or rebuilding, I just feel that he could be one of those guys to plug a hole for a few years, and still hold some cache in the event that he needs to be moved eventually

 

[metafour]

Thanks for that, I was admittedly only looking at overall WAR the past 3 seasons as compared to Kiermaier, and Pillar was still roughly 7 WAR behind, despite Kiermaier missing a huge chunk last yr.

I agree that his offense this year remains to be proven long-term. My point about keeping him was more in the sense that he wouldn't fetch as much as trade chip, more about asset management. With the Jays seemingly on their way to retooling or rebuilding, I just feel that he could be one of those guys to plug a hole for a few years, and still hold some cache in the event that he needs to be moved eventually

The thing is that Pillar is a ticking time-bomb when it comes to his asset value because unless you believe that he is all of a sudden an elite hitter, his value is almost entirely rooted in his defense...which isn't likely to be elite for much longer. Therefore it really doesn't make sense to "hold onto him" through a rebuild because his value is going to fade incredibly quickly.

I agree that no one is likely going to view Pillar as a superstar player when trading for him; but after 4.3 and 3.2 WAR seasons and him all of a sudden hitting this year, you're sitting at a very good time to cash out on him.

 

[Bad News Benning]

I'd definitely move pillar when his value is at its peak. Obviously wouldn't give him Away for cheap but I'd definitely field calls to see how much other teams value him.


Can you imagine white Sox trying to move Eaton after that injury? They did the smart thing and moved him before injuries or decline killed his value.

 

[Kurtz]

Pillar is actually at -1.9 UZR and -1 DRS to date which means that he's been a negative fielder. I would absolutely look to move Pillar for the right offer because the longevity of defensive-oriented center fielders is terrible, and I don't buy that he's all of a sudden a 150+ wRC+ hitter regardless of how much he's improved. He very likely could be declining defensively as we speak.

Do you buy that he's been a negative defender this year?

 

[AlienWorkShop]

Pillar is actually at -1.9 UZR and -1 DRS to date which means that he's been a negative fielder. I would absolutely look to move Pillar for the right offer because the longevity of defensive-oriented center fielders is terrible, and I don't buy that he's all of a sudden a 150+ wRC+ hitter regardless of how much he's improved. He very likely could be declining defensively as we speak.

nooooooise

 

[hoglund]

You are hilarious.

This team isn't good enough to play at the pace that they'd have to play at for the remainder of the season in order to climb out of this start. Realize that this was a team that, before everything went wrong, was going to battle for a ~89 win type season this year. They now have to play at like a ~96-97 win pace the remainder of the season just to hit those ~89 wins it takes to put you into the WC. So after looking horrendous over 20+ games, they now have to play dramatically better than anyone would have ever predicted going into this season just to make up for this start. **** like that just doesn't happen, which is why the number of teams who have come back from these types of starts is virtually nonexistent.

The updated PECOTA predictions going into today had us finishing with a 75-87 record. That simulated prediction doesn't even include the possibility of us dealing several pieces at the deadline.

I wasn't trying to be "hilarious", I was pointing out that they were 9-16 in April of 1989 and went on to win the division, that's not funny, that's FACT. I'm not saying that it will happen this year, I'm saying that it is possible, which obviously it is.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'd definitely shop Pillar to gauge his value - maybe a team can overpay

And also, at this rate, Smoak could have some value in a trade

 

[doorman]

I'd definitely shop Pillar to gauge his value - maybe a team can overpay

And also, at this rate, Smoak could have some value in a trade

I look to gauge the value of everyone except, Stroman, Tulo, Martin, Osuna & Sanchez. Stroman is the last guy I look at moving, I truly believe he wants to be here and will sign with term

 

[dredeye]

I look to gauge the value of everyone except, Stroman, Tulo, Martin, Osuna & Sanchez. Stroman is the last guy I look at moving, I truly believe he wants to be here and will sign with term

When you hire Boras you aren't looking for a forever home

 

[theaub]

Unless I really missed something Stroman isn't with Boras