Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[Canada4Gold]

When you hire Boras you aren't looking for a forever home

good thing that was Sanchez then.

 

[dredeye]

Unless I really missed something Stroman isn't with Boras

Sorry misread the last part. I thought he had Sanchez not stroman

 

[Discoverer]

Pillar is actually at -1.9 UZR and -1 DRS to date which means that he's been a negative fielder. I would absolutely look to move Pillar for the right offer because the longevity of defensive-oriented center fielders is terrible, and I don't buy that he's all of a sudden a 150+ wRC+ hitter regardless of how much he's improved. He very likely could be declining defensively as we speak.

Your ability to always see the negative in everything is astounding.

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

hmm did i read that right on nationals and mets game....
23-5
what the

 

[BertCorbeau]

hmm did i read that right on nationals and mets game....
23-5
what the

That's a good ol' fashion whooping'

 

[BertCorbeau]

Rendon was 6 fo 6 with 10 RBI's

 

[hoglund]

Pillar is actually at -1.9 UZR and -1 DRS to date which means that he's been a negative fielder. I would absolutely look to move Pillar for the right offer because the longevity of defensive-oriented center fielders is terrible, and I don't buy that he's all of a sudden a 150+ wRC+ hitter regardless of how much he's improved. He very likely could be declining defensively as we speak.

Pillar is a negative defender? Yeah sure....ok.

 

[metafour]

Your ability to always see the negative in everything is astounding.

We are having a serious discussion about the thought of trading Pillar. As it relates to that, I found it pretty interesting that analytics really don't like his defense over the first 20+ games of this season, which is kind of important as he is historically a player who's defense is really his bread and butter. If you are already seeing the cracks in his defensive armour, then that should realistically give you some sense that maybe it is a good time to sell (especially while he's hitting) instead of carrying around an asset that could implode over the next couple years if the defensive decline is in fact real.

Like I said, if you believe that Pillar is a great hitter all of a sudden, then no need to worry. If you however look at the actual defensive-decline of center fielders, you'd be weary of any about-to-be-30 defensive center fielder with below average historical offensive output.

 

[metafour]

Pillar is a negative defender? Yeah sure....ok.

That is what the metrics say. If you feel that you are smarter than the metrics, then knock yourself out. They are obviously super small sample sizes (just like Pillar's so called newfound hitting ability), but its something that no one has really bothered to bring up because they've seemingly been preoccupied with Pillar's hitting.

This isn't even that new. Vernon Wells went from elite defender to literally crap defender in the span of one year at age 29. Michael Bourn was the same case: once he hit 30, his defense went to ****...and he went from a 4-6 WAR player to a scrub because his offensive output couldn't make up for the defensive decline.

 

[theaub]

Its fair to say that CF have historically not aged well on turf.

But its rather disingenuous to say that his offensive output has been nothing but a fluke while believing he's somehow gone from an elite to below average defender

That is what the metrics say. If you feel that you are smarter than the metrics, then knock yourself out. They are obviously super small sample sizes (just like Pillar's so called newfound hitting ability), but its something that no one has really bothered to bring up because they've seemingly been preoccupied with Pillar's hitting.

This isn't even that new. Vernon Wells went from elite defender to literally crap defender in the span of one year at age 29. Michael Bourn was the same case: once he hit 30, his defense went to ****...and he went from a 4-6 WAR player to a scrub because his offensive output couldn't make up for the defensive decline.

Wells had significant wrist and leg injuries in '08 that led to his decline as a defender (especially the hamstring which was recurring until he retired). Don't know enough about Bourn but its pretty clear something pretty weird happened for him in general when he went to Cleveland. Pillar appears to be healthy so there's far less of an explanation for his defensive numbers so far.

 

[metafour]

But its rather disingenuous to say that his offensive output has been nothing but a fluke while believing he's somehow gone from an elite to below average defender

The point I'm making isn't that he's confirmed a negative defender because of a 20-game sample, its that its something that needs to be monitored just like his hitting needs to be monitored. The defense is more important because you have a much longer historical trend of elite defense than you do of elite hitting from him, therefore it is more striking when you see negative defensive performance.

Questioning his hitting is disingenuous at all. He's done this before:

June 2015: .365/.380/.531, 149 wRC+
Sep/Oct 2015: .333/.368/.505, 137 wRC+

 

[TheBeastCoast]

That is what the metrics say. If you feel that you are smarter than the metrics, then knock yourself out. They are obviously super small sample sizes (just like Pillar's so called newfound hitting ability), but its something that no one has really bothered to bring up because they've seemingly been preoccupied with Pillar's hitting.

This isn't even that new. Vernon Wells went from elite defender to literally crap defender in the span of one year at age 29. Michael Bourn was the same case: once he hit 30, his defense went to ****...and he went from a 4-6 WAR player to a scrub because his offensive output couldn't make up for the defensive decline.

I don't disagree with your general point about selling high on Pillar but to make the point that you can't look to much into his offensive output because he has never shown it in his past and then try to make the point that his defense is regressing based off a month of defensive metric noise is kind of a pretty large leap in logic.

 

[metafour]

Wells had significant wrist and leg injuries in '08 that led to his decline as a defender (especially the hamstring which was recurring until he retired). Don't know enough about Bourn but its pretty clear something pretty weird happened for him in general when he went to Cleveland. Pillar appears to be healthy so there's far less of an explanation for his defensive numbers so far.

Bourn was a speed-oriented player, and it is well established that speed is the first tool to go as players age. Since so many center fielders obviously rely on speed to generate the range that makes them elite in the first place, its not hard to figure out why so many of these guys all of a sudden stop being good defenders once they hit ~30. Carl Crawford didn't play CF but he was the same case as Bourn: he hit 29 and his legs went to ****; his elite defense in LF collapsed and his speed-oriented offense (slapping the ball around and beating out throws to first base) went down as well.

Denard Span? Exact same thing. Hit 29 and his defense tanked, never to be seen again. The list of these guys is endless.

 

[King Mapes]

You are hilarious.

This team isn't good enough to play at the pace that they'd have to play at for the remainder of the season in order to climb out of this start. Realize that this was a team that, before everything went wrong, was going to battle for a ~89 win type season this year. They now have to play at like a ~96-97 win pace the remainder of the season just to hit those ~89 wins it takes to put you into the WC. So after looking horrendous over 20+ games, they now have to play dramatically better than anyone would have ever predicted going into this season just to make up for this start. **** like that just doesn't happen, which is why the number of teams who have come back from these types of starts is virtually nonexistent.

The updated PECOTA predictions going into today had us finishing with a 75-87 record. That simulated prediction doesn't even include the possibility of us dealing several pieces at the deadline.

In 2015 many (and there was a ton) that said a below .500 team halfway through the year won't make the playoffs and a guy who plays every 5 days (Price) won't be enough to get us in.

 

[Discoverer]

The current defensive stats tell you literally nothing about trends in Pillar's current defensive ability unless you're specifically looking for signs of decline to support a previously-held opinion.

There's no point in looking at defensive stats at this point because they don't mean anything. And no, they don't even "hint" or "suggest" or "point to" anything, either. They mean nothing.

 

[dredeye]

So KC has overtaken us as the worst team in baseball. The ascent begins

 

[TootooTrain]

So KC has overtaken us as the worst team in baseball. The ascent begins

Crazy what happened to the small-ball yodas.

 

[Bluelines]

Crazy what happened to the small-ball yodas.

A few big-ball teams from last year are struggling too.

 

[metafour]

In 2015 many (and there was a ton) that said a below .500 team halfway through the year won't make the playoffs and a guy who plays every 5 days (Price) won't be enough to get us in.

Not even remotely comparable. Pythagorean expectation in 2015 predicted that we were MUCH better than a ~.500 team halfway through the season, it also subsequently predicted that the Yankees (who were 1st in the AL East at the time) were playing way over their heads. As expected, our massive positive run differential started to lead to more wins in the second half while the Yankees predictably collapsed as they were never as good as their first half pace suggested.

If you look at Pythagorean expectation today; we are still the worst team in the AL East.

Also, we make the playoffs even without Price in 2015.

 

[zeke]

no, we don’t make the playoffs without price.

and norris and boyd wouldn't crack our rotation now, either.

 

[zeke]

The FO really talked up its new and improved High Performance Departmemt this offseason, yet so far through April we've already seen Travis, Donaldson, and Sanchez rushed back from injury and immediately re-injure themselves.

 

[zeke]

defensive stats are about 1/3 the sample of hitting stats, if that. So looking at Pillar's defensive stats now is like looking at 8gms of hitting.

 

[theaub]

The FO really talked up its new and improved High Performance Departmemt this offseason, yet so far through April we've already seen Travis, Donaldson, and Sanchez rushed back from injury and immediately re-injure themselves.

Yup

Most disappointing part of the season so far tbh

 

[metafour]

no, we don’t make the playoffs without price.

We won the AL East by 6 games. Price was worth 2.7 wins after we acquired him.

Save me the semantics about Price's arrival magically making everyone else on the team play better, and thus we "never would have done it" without him. The AL East that year was actually pretty trash; much different from what you are seeing this season.

 

[Discoverer]

no, we don’t make the playoffs without price.

and norris and boyd wouldn't crack our rotation now, either.

They won the division by 6 games. Even if you want to assume they turn half of Price's wins into losses, they still win the division. Plus, in 5 of Price's wins, the team scored 9+ runs.

They absolutely do make the playoffs without Price, unless you think it's his acquisition that made the rest of the team go crazy for two months.

For the record, this has no impact on whether or not it was a good trade. I still think it was a smart move and worthwhile gamble, but, other than upping the excitement level among Jays fans by making a clear "going for it" statement, it made very little difference on the end result for the team.