Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[theaub]

I think there was definitely some impact on the team as a result of the trade that isn't measured solely by Price's W/L record or WAR.

And considering its a totally subjective thought since both sides of the argument have zero proof, not worth much more time than that.

 

[zeke]

Save me the semantics about Price's arrival magically making everyone else on the team play better,

semantics isn't the word you're looking for but still...no.

 

[Discoverer]

defensive stats are about 1/3 the sample of hitting stats, if that. So looking at Pillar's defensive stats now is like looking at 8gms of hitting.

Exactly. His hitting stats are based on a really small sample of 110 plate appearances. The only peripheral stat that's showing any real change is his ISO. Given his stated desire to become more patient on pitches out of the zone and more aggressive on pitches in the zone, along with huge, tangible improvements so far in O-swing and Z-swing, I think it's fair to say that some of his improvements may be sustainable. I'm not talking about maintaining his early power surge all season and carrying a 135 wRC+, but I could see an overall increase in power given that his plate discipline has lead to improved contact quality so far, allowing him to become an above average hitter. He's had plenty of hot stretches before, but they've never come with actual plate discipline changes.

Meanwhile, even setting aside the limitations of small samples of defensive data, he's had 39 plays in his zone defensively. If he looked good in 39 plate appearances, no matter what tangible changes were associated with it, my response would be "meh". If we reach the halfway point of the season and the data still looks bad, I'll start to wonder if maybe this is a decline. Right now, it's just noise.

 

[Discoverer]

I think there was definitely some impact on the team as a result of the trade that isn't measured solely by Price's W/L record or WAR.

And considering its a totally subjective thought since both sides of the argument have zero proof, not worth much more time than that.

Given the results, it's a lot easier to argue that they would have made it anyway, but yeah, this is all just hypothetical.

I just think you have to put a ton (like... a ton) of weight on Price's intangibles and the mental impact of the trade on the rest of the team to think there's even the slightest chance he made that much difference.

 

[metafour]

I think there was definitely some impact on the team as a result of the trade that isn't measured solely by Price's W/L record or WAR.

And considering its a totally subjective thought since both sides of the argument have zero proof, not worth much more time than that.

"Some impact". That team was +85 in run differential (2nd in the league) at the midway point while they were still sitting with a ~.500 record and trailing the Yankees. Yeah, run differential is a flawed statistic because it favours offense, but the point is that the 2015 Blue Jays were the best team in the weak AL East long before they even acquired Price.

You'd have a better argument for Price providing some incalculable "morale boost" if the team was legitimately playing like **** before they got him, which wasn't the case at all. They were lighting it up offensively while the Yankees were barely winning games left and right with every bounce falling their way. Obviously our historic offense that season would start to produce more wins while the Yankees would predictably fall back to reality. That is why those trades made sense in the first place: we weren't "just a .500 team".

 

[zeke]

not only did Price come in and pitch pretty much 11 complete games and go 7 games over .500, but thanks to injuries to buehrle etc without Price we would have been starting the likes of copeland or redmond or norris or boyd down the stretch....who were negative value players that year.

and that doesn’t factor in that every price start was pretty much just a rest day for the bullpen the entire last 2 months.

and THEN we factor in the effect of the FO finally going all in on the team's performance, which was so obvious denying it is just embarassing.

 

[phillipmike]

no, we don’t make the playoffs without price.

and norris and boyd wouldn't crack our rotation now, either.

Playoffs or division because the gap widens if you say playoffs. We were up 6 games on the Yankees and 7 games on the 2nd WC spot on Houston. Lead could have been bigger too; if the Jays were battling for a spot they dont rest guys against Baltimore after they clinched on September 30th or October 1st.

Lineups from the last 2 games in Baltimore;

September 30th

Dalton Pompey*CF
Cliff Pennington*LF
Ezequiel Carrera*RF
Chris Colabello*DH
Matt Hague*1B
Josh Thole*C
Munenori Kawasaki*3B
Darwin Barney*2B
Jonathan Diaz*SS

October 1st:

Dalton Pompey*CF
Cliff Pennington*LF
***Ryan Goins*SS - PH
Ezequiel Carrera*RF
Chris Colabello*DH
Matt Hague*1B
Josh Thole*C
Munenori Kawasaki*3B
Darwin Barney*2B
Jonathan Diaz*SS-LF

They skipped Price and Stroman to rest them for the playoffs in favor of Dickey and Buerhle on 1 days rest. If they were in the race at the end then they arent skipping Stroman or their other starter in favour of RA Dickey and MB on 1 day's rest.

 

[Discoverer]

not only did Price come in and pitch pretty much 11 complete games and go 7 games over .500, but thanks to injuries to buehrle etc without Price we would have been starting the likes of copeland or redmond or norris or boyd down the stretch....who were negative value players that year.

and that doesn’t factor in that every price start was pretty much just a rest day for the bullpen the entire last 2 months.

and THEN we factor in the effect of the FO finally going all in on the team's performance, which was so obvious denying it is just embarassing.

They still scored 9+ runs in more than half of Price's wins. Copeland, Redmond, Norris, or Boyd probably win all of those games anyway.

Plus, this is assuming the options were acquiring Price vs. doing nothing. They could have added a mediocre back-end starter for cheap to eat some innings and still easily made the playoffs.

And this is coming from someone who always loved AA and would do that trade again in a heartbeat.

 

[metafour]

not only did Price come in and pitch pretty much 11 complete games and go 7 games over .500, but thanks to injuries to buehrle etc without Price we would have been starting the likes of copeland or redmond or norris or boyd down the stretch....who were negative value players that year.

and that doesn’t factor in that every price start was pretty much just a rest day for the bullpen the entire last 2 months.

and THEN we factor in the effect of the FO finally going all in on the team's performance, which was so obvious denying it is just embarassing.

None of that **** makes up a 6-7 game difference in final standings, sorry.

This theory falls under the same line of reasonableness as arguing that we suck this season because everyone is still super sad that Encarnacion isn't here anymore. Its not real.

 

[theaub]

"Some impact". That team was +85 in run differential (2nd in the league) at the midway point while they were still sitting with a ~.500 record and trailing the Yankees. Yeah, run differential is a flawed statistic because it favours offense, but the point is that the 2015 Blue Jays were the best team in the weak AL East long before they even acquired Price.

You'd have a better argument for Price providing some incalculable "morale boost" if the team was legitimately playing like **** before they got him, which wasn't the case at all. They were lighting it up offensively while the Yankees were barely winning games left and right with every bounce falling their way. Obviously our historic offense that season would start to produce more wins while the Yankees would predictably fall back to reality. That is why those trades made sense in the first place: we weren't "just a .500 team".

Yup, the writing was just on the wall the team would play .700 ball (42-18 over their last 60).

If the Jays had truly progressed to the mean and played at a .593% clip (their pythag percentage at the time of the Price trade), then sure. That's a 35 win pace that would have put them at 86-76. Which puts them on the literal playoff line.

 

[zeke]

yeah, it does.

and your precious prospects all stink, btw.

and yes, the halfassed uncommittee job by the FO this offseason most likely has had a negative impact on the team this year.

 

[Discoverer]

not only did Price come in and pitch pretty much 11 complete games and go 7 games over .500, but thanks to injuries to buehrle etc without Price we would have been starting the likes of copeland or redmond or norris or boyd down the stretch....who were negative value players that year.

8 innings twice, 7.1 once, 7 five times, 6 once, 5 twice. Price was amazing for the Jays and it was a great trade, but if you have to exaggerate that much, you probably don't have a great argument to begin with.

and that doesn’t factor in that every price start was pretty much just a rest day for the bullpen the entire last 2 months.

The bullpen rest argument is one I can get behind. But, again, not to the point of making a 6-win difference because that's pretty obviously ridiculous.

and THEN we factor in the effect of the FO finally going all in on the team's performance, which was so obvious denying it is just embarassing.

If the decisions of a front office can have that much impact on the mental state of the players on the team (everyone playing better because they're happy about one player or pouting because the front office didn't spend enough money) then I think you have some serious problems with the players on the team.

 

[phillipmike]

not only did Price come in and pitch pretty much 11 complete games and go 7 games over .500, but thanks to injuries to buehrle etc without Price we would have been starting the likes of copeland or redmond or norris or boyd down the stretch....who were negative value players that year.

and that doesn’t factor in that every price start was pretty much just a rest day for the bullpen the entire last 2 months.

and THEN we factor in the effect of the FO finally going all in on the team's performance, which was so obvious denying it is just embarassing.

Untrue... Jays had other deals lined up if they didnt acquire Price.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/m...oy-tulowitzki-blue-jays/?ex_cid=story-twitter

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/inside-the-48-hours-that-transformed-the-blue-jays/

Also worth noting that AA had a deal done for Mike Leake before Price became available;

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to a number of Blue Jays players as well as Anthopoulous about the club’s flurry of trade deadline activity. Notably, Nightengale reports that the Jays had a trade for Mike Leake worked out with the Reds prior to acquiring David Price, but talks for Price ignited shortly before the trade with Cincinnati was finalized

Also had interest in reacquiring Chavez and/or Happ too.

After acquiring Leake and/or another pitcher AA had another deal lined up to acquire Ben Zobrist using Matt Boyd but Boyd went in the Price deal killing our Zobirst deal;

The Blue Jays tried to trade for Ben Zobrist, but the Athletics’ asking price was Matt Boyd plus other pieces, Rosenthal hears, which was too steep for GM Alex Anthopoulos. Boyd was ultimately one of three pieces used to acquire David Price from the Tigers.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ben-zobrist
-----------

So the Jays werent going to be starting Norris or Copeland down the stretch. It would have been Leake and potentially Zobrist in your lineup keeping him away from the Royals. Playoffs could have played out a little differently if we had Zobrist instead of KC and Leake.

 

[Mach85]

It would be foolish to completely dismiss clubhouse effects just because they can't be quantified. Now, I don't think that the addition or subtraction of one player can add/subtract a substantial amount of wins to a team. But it's not a stretch to think it can have an impact beyond their specific on-field contributions. From yesterday's Boston Globe:

The biggest mistake made by the Blue Jays, according to one of their uniformed personnel, was not re-signing Edwin Encarnacion. While Encarnacion is off to a slow start in Cleveland, the Blue Jays miss him in the clubhouse, where he was a stabilizing force. And they miss him in the lineup, where he seemed to make everyone better around him. The Jays offered a four-year, $80 million deal. Encarnacion signed with the Indians for three years at $60 million.

Of course, this "uniformed personnel" could be anyone, and it is just one opinion. But it's the viewpoint of someone much closer to the team than any of us. And there's likely some displacement of blame going on here. Add EE back to this team and it's not a panacea; we're not automatically back in the thick of the division race. But expectancy effects and the power of habits are pretty huge, and it's firmly within the realm of possibility that one person's experience, leadership, work ethic, personality, and overall stability can affect a team's performance to some degree.

 

[metafour]

The bullpen rest argument is one I can get behind. But, again, not to the point of making a 6-win difference because that's pretty obviously ridiculous.

Even this is a weak argument. We also acquired Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins who after being acquired pitched less innings for us than they did with either of their prior teams (Lowe especially). So even without Price going deep into games, its comical to assume that our bullpen would have been screwed. Mark Lowe was basically a ~6th inning mop-up guy for us.

 

[zeke]

8 innings twice, 7.1 once, 7 five times, 6 once, 5 twice. Price was amazing for the Jays and it was a great trade, but if you have to exaggerate that much, you probably don't have a great argument to begin with.

eh, you're including post-clinch games where they pulled him early and had minor leaguers finish it off.

The bullpen rest argument is one I can get behind. But, again, not to the point of making a 6-win difference because that's pretty obviously ridiculous.

eh. 3-4 wins for his war over the in house replacement war. another bullpen war or 2. then another war or 2 for team effects (both psychological and simply by adding another layer of dominance which makes the game easier for everyone), and you're there.

If the decisions of a front office can have that much impact on the mental state of the players on the team (everyone playing better because they're happy about one player or pouting because the front office didn't spend enough money) then I think you have some serious problems with the players on the team.

Maybe. Maybe they're more emotional than average. Maybe they lacked confidence. Could well be signs of a weakness.

 

[Discoverer]

It would be foolish to completely dismiss clubhouse effects just because they can't be quantified. Now, I don't think that the addition or subtraction of one player can add/subtract a substantial amount of wins to a team. But it's not a stretch to think it can have an impact beyond their specific on-field contributions. From yesterday's Boston Globe:

Of course, this "uniformed personnel" could be anyone, and it is just one opinion. But it's the viewpoint of someone much closer to the team than any of us. And there's likely some displacement of blame going on here. Add EE back to this team and it's not a panacea; we're not automatically back in the thick of the division race. But expectancy effects and the power of habits are pretty huge, and it's firmly within the realm of possibility that one person's experience, leadership, work ethic, personality, and overall stability can affect a team's performance to some degree.

I agree with a lot of that. But when it comes to the things you listed (experience, leadership, work ethic, personality, etc.) it's hard to imagine Edwin bringing a ton to the table that the Jays don't already have in droves with guys like Bautista, Tulo, Donaldson, Martin, etc. And that's not to mention that they brought in another similarly experienced guy in Morales as his replacement.

We hear this every year with every team that unexpectedly struggles. Everyone in the organization is upbeat about the chances going into the season. Everyone is comfortable with the talent, leadership, and personalities on the team. Then the losses start piling up and the stories start leaking out to "explain" why things aren't going so well.

 

[metafour]

I agree with a lot of that. But when it comes to the things you listed (experience, leadership, work ethic, personality, etc.) it's hard to imagine Edwin bringing a ton to the table that the Jays don't already have in droves with guys like Bautista, Tulo, Donaldson, Martin, etc. And that's not to mention that they brought in another similarly experienced guy in Morales as his replacement.

We hear this every year with every team that unexpectedly struggles. Everyone in the organization is upbeat about the chances going into the season. Everyone is comfortable with the talent, leadership, and personalities on the team. Then the losses start piling up and the stories start leaking out to "explain" why things aren't going so well.

These narratives belong in the Hazel Mae school of baseball analytics, not in the real world.

Just the other day she had some segment about how one of the positives about Donaldson and Tulowitzki being injured is that they now have so much more time to "bond" with their teammates in the clubhouse. Yes, our last place team is really benefiting because those two are offering reach-arounds in the clubhouse or something.

People actually buy into this ****.

 

[phillipmike]

It would be foolish to completely dismiss clubhouse effects just because they can't be quantified. Now, I don't think that the addition or subtraction of one player can add/subtract a substantial amount of wins to a team. But it's not a stretch to think it can have an impact beyond their specific on-field contributions. From yesterday's Boston Globe:



Of course, this "uniformed personnel" could be anyone, and it is just one opinion. But it's the viewpoint of someone much closer to the team than any of us. And there's likely some displacement of blame going on here. Add EE back to this team and it's not a panacea; we're not automatically back in the thick of the division race. But expectancy effects and the power of habits are pretty huge, and it's firmly within the realm of possibility that one person's experience, leadership, work ethic, personality, and overall stability can affect a team's performance to some degree.

I strongly question it as well. If it were Donaldson, Tulo or even Bautista it might make me think about it.

But we are talking about Edwin, a guy who doesnt speak English all that well. So outside of a few teammates that speak the same language i wonder what difference him vs Morales makes (another guy who doesnt speak English all that well).

Unless Edwin has an orange aura like Rick James its a strange concept to accept.

 

[Discoverer]

eh, you're including post-clinch games where they pulled him early and had minor leaguers finish it off.

And the 6-game division lead also includes a 1-4 post-clinch stretch where they rested most of their regulars and started a pitcher on one day's rest. Unless you're assuming none of that changes if they haven't yet clinched.

eh. 3-4 wins for his war over the in house replacement war. another bullpen war or 2. then another war or 2 for team effects (both psychological and simply by adding another layer of dominance which makes the game easier for everyone), and you're there.

There's no way the bullpen loses "another WAR or 2" by pitching another dozen innings or so over two months. Also, it's hard to evaluate a starter's impact based solely on his WAR when we already know the scores of the games being discussed. Again, a sub replacement-level pitcher still wins most of those games, unless you think the 9+ run offense in those games was driven by having David Price pitching.

 

[Mach85]

I agree with a lot of that. But when it comes to the things you listed (experience, leadership, work ethic, personality, etc.) it's hard to imagine Edwin bringing a ton to the table that the Jays don't already have in droves with guys like Bautista, Tulo, Donaldson, Martin, etc. And that's not to mention that they brought in another similarly experienced guy in Morales as his replacement.

We hear this every year with every team that unexpectedly struggles. Everyone in the organization is upbeat about the chances going into the season. Everyone is comfortable with the talent, leadership, and personalities on the team. Then the losses start piling up and the stories start leaking out to "explain" why things aren't going so well.

Absolutely. That's why I couched my inclusion of the quote with the caveat that it's not an explanation for their struggles. My intent was to point out that something shouldn't be completely dismissed out of hand as a complete non-factor just because it can't be quantified. That's been a mistake in the past with the analytic community, for instance the "hot hand" study. Losing a strong clubhouse guy won't take a team from the basement to the penthouse most likely. But it's certainly reasonable to argue that it has some effect.

I strongly question it as well. If it were Donaldson, Tulo or even Bautista it might make me think about it.

But we are talking about Edwin, a guy who doesnt speak English all that well. So outside of a few teammates that speak the same language i wonder what difference him vs Morales makes (another guy who doesnt speak English all that well).

Unless Edwin has an orange aura like Rick James its a strange concept to accept.

Well, to be fair you nor I know how good Edwin's grasp of English really is. Lots of players choose not to do interviews in English or downplay how well they speak it (see Sammy Sosa in front of congress) because they lack confidence in it and don't want to make a mistake when they know they're under a microscope. EE could be a lot more comfortable with the language in the informal clubhouse environment.

 

[phillipmike]

And the 6-game division lead also includes a 1-4 post-clinch stretch where they rested most of their regulars and started a pitcher on one day's rest. Unless you're assuming none of that changes if they haven't yet clinched.

I touched on that here;

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=131699741&postcount=207

But he chooses to ignore it because it doesnt fit his argument.

There's no way the bullpen loses "another WAR or 2" by pitching another dozen innings or so over two months. Also, it's hard to evaluate a starter's impact based solely on his WAR when we already know the scores of the games being discussed. Again, a sub replacement-level pitcher still wins most of those games, unless you think the 9+ run offense in those games was driven by having David Price pitching.

Again making numbers up to fit his weak argument.

2015 Jays bullpen 1st half had a 2.2 WAR and their 2nd half was 1.8 WAR. Hard to believe that Price was the sole reason that would cause a swing of the entire bullpen being the 6th best pen to the 24th best or lower.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...nd=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

But i expect him to ignore this too.

 

[phillipmike]

Well, to be fair you nor I know how good Edwin's grasp of English really is. Lots of players choose not to do interviews in English or downplay how well they speak it (see Sammy Sosa in front of congress) because they lack confidence in it and don't want to make a mistake when they know they're under a microscope. EE could be a lot more comfortable with the language in the informal clubhouse environment.

Exactly which makes the argument indefinitive either way to discuss its merits.

Does Edwin not being here really drop Bautista's, Travis' and Pearce's wRC+ to 61, 4 and 2?

The Jays arent winning simply because those guys arent hitting, Osuna isnt closing out games and because Donaldson, Tulo, Happ and Sanchez are all on the DL not because of Edwin not being here.

 

[theaub]

Edwin speaks almost perfectly fluent English fwiw

 

[Mach85]

Exactly which makes the argument indefinitive either way to discuss its merits.

Does Edwin not being here really drop Bautista's, Travis' and Pearce's wRC+ to 61, 4 and 2?

The Jays arent winning simply because those guys arent hitting, Osuna isnt closing out games and because Donaldson, Tulo, Happ and Sanchez are all on the DL not because of Edwin not being here.

Nowhere have I argued that Edwin's absence is responsible for the degree of performance loss we've seen in the roster. Simply that it could be a factor of immeasurable magnitude that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand because it can't be quantified. I guess to bring it back to the Price discussion, can the impact of one player be responsible for us making or missing the playoffs? I would say no, but who knows. But also, to say he had zero impact beyond his on-field performance is also a matter of opinion.