Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[stickty111]

Shaipro has some work to do to clean up the mess left by AA at the major league level. AA only made moves that made him look good in front of the camera. Thankfully Shapiro doesnt make moves like a film star AA and will make the right moves to get this team competitive again.
In Shapiro we trust.
No wonder no one has hired AA as a GM again.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Or Price .. Not only by the performances of Happ and Estrada, but what they can possible return in separate trades to help the club going forward.

I feel optimistic about the team returning to the playoffs sooner than later, provided they make the right rebuilding moves. I don't think this is a long term turnaround.

Or Fowler
I hope it's a quick turn around! There was nothing like the energy of Jays playoff baseball

 

[phillipmike]

and an update on our "stripped upper system":

As SP since trades:

Norris (24): 17gs, 5.3ip/gs, 90era-, 91fip-, 100xfip-, 2.5war/32gs
Boyd (26): 22gs, 5.0ip/gs, 111era-, 109fip-, 114xfip-, 1.5war/32gs
Hoffman (24): 6gs, 4.6ip/gs, 107era-, 147fip-, 119xfip-, -2.1war/32gs (AAA: 26gs, 5.5ip/gs, 4.19era, 4.16fip, 4.23xfip)

As RP:

Castro (22): 20.0ip, 151era-, 139fip-, 111xfip-, -1.0war/65ip (AAA: 15.2ip, 10.34era, 7.49fip, 4.49xfip)
(Labourt (23): A+ 134.2ip, 5.15era, 4.00fip)
(Tinoco (22): A: 86.1ip, 5.63era, 4.62fip, 4.07xfip)

Those guys had major trade value at the time. If they werent moved for guys like Price and Tulo then they could have been moved for other players at the time or in the 2016 off-season where those players could have been younger, better and had more years of control.

The prospects dont look good now but they had much more value when they were traded.

I am a huge AA fan and was sad to see him leave but he wasnt perfect by any means. He had some great moves but some moves that didnt leave the Jays in the best position. Shapiro didnt have a great choices; play in FA and get older players or trade whatever little prospect capital left to add to the "aging core" you alluded to. Either way you would still be complaining - imagine if he trade Vladdy or Alford?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Right now, Shapiro and Atkins approval ratings are probably really really low. It's a tough situation for them. The team that that went to the ALCS 2 years in a row has transformed into a last place team under their watch. They will be judged on how well they turn this team around over the next few years.

 

[zeke]

Shaipro has some work to do to clean up the mess left by AA at the major league level. AA only made moves that made him look good in front of the camera. Thankfully Shapiro doesnt make moves like a film star AA and will make the right moves to get this team competitive again.
In Shapiro we trust.
No wonder no one has hired AA as a GM again.

Here's AA's MESS at the major league level:

3B Donaldson 31, 2yrs of control
SS Tulowitzki 32, 4yrs x $19.5m
C Martin 34, 3yrs x $20.0m
CF Pillar 28, 4yrs of control
2B Travis 26, 4yrs of control

OF Pompey 24, 4yrs of control
OF Carrera 30, 3yrs of control
IF Goins 29, 4yrs of control


RH Stroman 26, 4yrs of control
RH Sanchez 24, 4yrs of control

RH Osuna 22, 4yrs of control
LH Loup 29, 2yrs of control
RH Barnes 27, 5yrs of control
RH Tepera 29, 5yrs of control



That's pretty much the entire good half of the roster, costing about $65m.

The rest is Shapiro Inc.

 

[phillipmike]

Shaipro has some work to do to clean up the mess left by AA at the major league level. AA only made moves that made him look good in front of the camera. Thankfully Shapiro doesnt make moves like a film star AA and will make the right moves to get this team competitive again.
In Shapiro we trust.
No wonder no one has hired AA as a GM again.

I wouldnt go that fair. AA rejected interview opportunities with the Twins and Diamondbacks for their GM positions.

The Coyotes in the NHL wanted him for a senior management position.

Here's AA's MESS at the major league level:

3B Donaldson 31, 2yrs of control
SS Tulowitzki 32, 4yrs x $19.5m
C Martin 34, 3yrs x $20.0m
CF Pillar 28, 4yrs of control
2B Travis 26, 4yrs of control

OF Pompey 24, 4yrs of control
OF Carrera 30, 3yrs of control
IF Goins 29, 4yrs of control


RH Stroman 26, 4yrs of control
RH Sanchez 24, 4yrs of control

RH Osuna 22, 4yrs of control
LH Loup 29, 2yrs of control
RH Barnes 27, 5yrs of control
RH Tepera 29, 5yrs of control



That's pretty much the entire good half of the roster, costing about $65m.

The rest is Shapiro Inc.

And Shapiro had to fill the other half of the team.

Now tell me if you dont have prospects coming up because AA traded them and because you traded so many prospects you dont have many prospects to trade for MLB talent... what are your alternatives?

Free agency and waiver claims!

What do you get in free agency and waiver claims? 30 year old free agents and borderline major leaguers. The hand he was dealt wasnt great to improve the team and his options were limited.

 

[hoglund]

Shaipro has some work to do to clean up the mess left by AA at the major league level. AA only made moves that made him look good in front of the camera. Thankfully Shapiro doesnt make moves like a film star AA and will make the right moves to get this team competitive again.
In Shapiro we trust.
No wonder no one has hired AA as a GM again.

AA formed a roster that went to the playoffs 2 years in a row, which is rare for baseball, the Jays best chance was 2015, but 2016 wasn't bad. They are still good, but are aging and prone to more injuries. I'll
give them another month to improve and heal.

 

[Discoverer]

Here's AA's MESS at the major league level:

3B Donaldson 31, 2yrs of control
SS Tulowitzki 32, 4yrs x $19.5m
C Martin 34, 3yrs x $20.0m
CF Pillar 28, 4yrs of control
2B Travis 26, 4yrs of control

OF Pompey 24, 4yrs of control
OF Carrera 30, 3yrs of control
IF Goins 29, 4yrs of control


RH Stroman 26, 4yrs of control
RH Sanchez 24, 4yrs of control

RH Osuna 22, 4yrs of control
LH Loup 29, 2yrs of control
RH Barnes 27, 5yrs of control
RH Tepera 29, 5yrs of control



That's pretty much the entire good half of the roster, costing about $65m.

The rest is Shapiro Inc.

That's great! Now you have a little under $100 million to add two starting OF, a 1B, a DH, a backup catcher, other bench/depth pieces, three starting pitchers, at least four major-league calibre relievers, and whatever pitching depth you can cobble together. And you have no major-league ready prospects who are able to step into any of those roles, so you can either sign free agents, take on salary in trades, or trade some of your lower/mid-level prospects to fill the holes.

Enjoy!

 

[zeke]

Only $100m to spend? the horror!

 

[Discoverer]

Only $100m to spend? the horror!

If you think $100 million is a lot of money, you don't seem to know a lot about MLB free agency.

Edit: Nevermind. These things never go anywhere. But after signing Price and getting Bautista and Edwin in a room together to cleverly co-negotiate deals, you would have... what? $25 million left?

 

[oilers89]

Jim bowden tweeted out today: "what would it take for the astros to get donaldson and estrada? Bregman,kyle tucker,martes,whitley, musgrove?"

First reaction for me is yes i would do that. But i only know about bregman and musgrove and little but about tucker. Someone who knows more about these prospects should weigh in on this.

 

[Acekicker123]

Here's AA's MESS at the major league level:

3B Donaldson 31, 2yrs of control
SS Tulowitzki 32, 4yrs x $19.5m
C Martin 34, 3yrs x $20.0m
CF Pillar 28, 4yrs of control
2B Travis 26, 4yrs of control

OF Pompey 24, 4yrs of control
OF Carrera 30, 3yrs of control
IF Goins 29, 4yrs of control


RH Stroman 26, 4yrs of control
RH Sanchez 24, 4yrs of control

RH Osuna 22, 4yrs of control
LH Loup 29, 2yrs of control
RH Barnes 27, 5yrs of control
RH Tepera 29, 5yrs of control



That's pretty much the entire good half of the roster, costing about $65m.

The rest is Shapiro Inc.

2017 WAR (AA):

Donaldson: 0.6
Tulo: 0.1
Martin: 0.4
Pillar: 0.4
Travis: -0.5
Pompey: 0
Carrera: 0.3
Goins: 0.2

Stroman: 0.7
Sanchez: -0.1

Osuna: 0.1
Loup: 0.1
Barnes: 0.1
Tepera: 0
Dermody: -0.2
Lawrence: -0.2

2.0 WAR thus far for about $65M.

2017 WAR (Shapiro/Atkins)

Smoak: 0.3
Barney: 0.3
Morales: 0
Coghlan: -0.1
Bautista: -0.4
Salty: -0.5
Pearce: -0.6

Estrada: 0.6
Leone: 0.4
Smith: 0.3
Liriano: 0.3
Biagini: 0.2
Happ: 0.2
Latos: 0
Grilli: -0.1
Howell: -0.4

0.5 WAR for remaining $100M.

Kind of insane how bad we've been.

Meanwhile Eric Thames = 1.9 WAR.

 

[phillipmike]

Jim bowden tweeted out today: "what would it take for the astros to get donaldson and estrada? Bregman,kyle tucker,martes,whitley, musgrove?"

First reaction for me is yes i would do that. But i only know about bregman and musgrove and little but about tucker. Someone who knows more about these prospects should weigh in on this.

Jays should take that and run.

Get a potential stud 3B... Two young mid-rotation guys in Musgrove and Martes (could be an ace). And two potential top 50 prospects.

Rotation would be set for 3-4 more years. Sanchez, Stroman, Martes and Musgrove. Could bring Estrada back in the off-season. Bregman and Martes are the best pieces.

 

[phillipmike]

Only $100m to spend? the horror!

$100M for;

3 starting pitchers
4 relievers
1B
DH
RF
LF
Bench



That's roughly 10M per player on the open market. Number wont be as high for the pen and bench. But 70M of that 100M gets you "average" MLB players for 60% of your rotation and 45% of you lineup. Now if you want better than average then you should/will be paying more. Doesnt help that 4 of our better players on the DL.

100M to get 4 starters, 3 starting pitchers, 4 relievers and a bench is enough. Remember those figures are the averages... adding "average" players (little over 1 WAR) to the team doesnt guarantee you anything. Shapiro and Atkins were able to maximize their roster by getting value out of Happ, Estrada and Liriano. So far the position players they acquired this past off-season have failed miserably.

 

[deletethis]

I'm still saying this poor start is a gift for Atkins. On paper there's no reason this team isn't at least an above .500 team. It took a perfect storm of terrible hitting to create this start.

Atkins had to take a sincere run at contending with the investments into the current roster he inherited. Contending in the East requires a very strong team. It'll always be better to go all in when the circumstances are right then pull back to a youth movement otherwise. Now every older piece is for sale conscience-free. And don't forget that the Blue Jays have an advantage that many other re-tooling teams don't have: the ability to take on some money over the short run to make a deal work.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

AA's "mess" has nothing to do with payroll, or the core of the major league roster. His "mess" is manifested in the lack of young prospect position players that should have been breaking in right now in order to fill the types of holes that open in an advanced roster.

His drafting of position players was very very bad.

 

[phillipmike]

Personally i believe yesterday was a "turning point" in the sense that they team doesnt have much fight in them - blowing the game in game 1 was too deflating. Winning game 1 and having and having a chance of going back home 8-14 was huge vs 7-15 or 6-16. The Jays had bad luck; generally when their pitching was good their hitting was bad and vice versa. We had yesterday won but once your close to automatic Closer in Osuna cant close out a 4-2 game with 2 outs then it might be done until they show some major signs of improvement and they may not come until JD is back or at all. Just my feeling now but there is the slightest of hope if they go on streak though they have shown nothing to prove that a streak is coming.

However, i will say that i think the WC will be A LOT easier to get into than people think - the AL is very weak after the top 3 teams (probably even weaker in the NL). Cleveland is likely winning the Central and Houston is winning the West. No one else in the Central or West is projected to have more than 82 wins according to FG - of course that can change. So it all comes down to whether or not the Jays can catch 1 of the Yankees, Orioles or Red Sox - i think 3 teams come out of our division again.

As of now Fangraph projections the 1st and 2nd wildcard spots make it with 86 and 85 wins.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-E

Good thing is they have a lot of games left against the O's.. Yanks and Sox. They can turn a lot around by beating them... problem is they havent so far.

 

[zeke]

hehheh.

the prospects are killing it right now, the good half of the team they inherited costs $65m and is controllable.

And the poor dears only had $100m to spend.

Lucky for them the goodwill they inherited let them sign their best FA Estrada for cheap and the GM they inherited signed their 2nd best FA Happ before they fired him.

 

[phillipmike]

hehheh.

the prospects are killing it right now, the good half of the team they inherited costs $65m and is controllable.

And the poor dears only had $100m to spend.

Lucky for them the goodwill they inherited let them sign their best FA Estrada for cheap and the GM they inherited signed their 2nd best FA Happ before they fired him.

Couldnt be more wrong...

Also so when LaCava made those signing as the acting GM Shapiro was the President... LaCava gets the praise for those signings. When Atkins makes a signing or trade (keeping in mind Shapiro is still the President) now Shapiro gets the blame if/when they dont work out.

Its a never ending cycle with you... You make uneducated statements bashing the FO. People show that you are wrong and you either leave/ignore and refuse to acknowledge their posts or continue on like they dont exist. Then you come back a few days later a do it all over again... and again and again.

 

[zeke]

nobody has ever shown me to be wrong.

all I hear are excuses.

"only $100m!!"

 

[Discoverer]

hehheh.

the prospects are killing it right now, the good half of the team they inherited costs $65m and is controllable.

And the poor dears only had $100m to spend.

Lucky for them the goodwill they inherited let them sign their best FA Estrada for cheap and the GM they inherited signed their 2nd best FA Happ before they fired him.

The King of Spin

And, I guess, based on the Happ comment, The King of Making **** Up.

 

[Discoverer]

nobody has ever shown me to be wrong.

all I hear are excuses.

"only $100m!!"

You ignoring people doesn't make you right.

 

[phillipmike]

nobody has ever shown me to be wrong.

all I hear are excuses.

"only $100m!!"

Then explain this ridiculous statement then...

the GM they inherited signed their 2nd best FA Happ before they fired him.

IF LaCava gets all the praise for Happ and Estrada then Atkins should get all the blame for this team as Shapiro was the President for both guys.

 

[phillipmike]

You ignoring people doesn't make you right.

lol well put.

 

[TF97]

Salty gone, Maille up.