Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

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Discoverer

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He also doesn't have the same life on his fastball (though he has shown that he can touch 97, he does not consistently sit there). Where one could live off his fastball (Greene) if he cleans up his command (not likely, but has been done), the other will need to develop his secondary offerings in order to be successful.

And I would bet on a secondary pitch coming along before I bet on command developing.

If Greene can keep up a respectable K-rate (which he did in short spurts at the lower levels) and his current crazy GB% (which is completely new for him) then he can even get away without improving his command. But I see Zeuch as doing pretty much everything well right now.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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He may not have actual velocity, but the perceived velocity is an important factor. His crazy high release point creates massive downward plane and can absolutely fool batters a la Happ.



They're still different pitchers. I could just as easily grab a TOR pitcher that was good in A+ as a 21 year old and comp him (Jake Arrieta).

Absolutely. Which goes to show you that A+ success for a pitcher really doesn't carry a remarkable amount of weight. Double-A tends to reveal actual trends (such as high GB%, or homerun and flyball suppression, and K%) that have a chance of carry over to the majors. I never said they were the same. I simply said he could be Wainwright or he could be Deck. Kyle Drabek never gave up a homerun in A+, yet gave them out like skittles in the majors.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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In 19 starts at dunedin he gave up 9 taters. McGuire gave up double digit hrs every year in the minors. The alarm bells probably shouldve been ringing in college that he was a potential launching pad.

I'd Zeuch struggles at higher levels it will probably be a result of babip or bad defense behind him.

His profile is more similar to stroman coming out of college (ignore the height difference for a minute) than he is to Upper Deck McGuire.

Again, if the ground ball rate and flyball\homerun suppression continues to be tremendous in Double-A, I will absolutely support and sign off on the prospect being considered blue chip. But for now, I prefer to employ cautious optimism, and agree with the idea that he's not even under consideration to be a top 100 prospect.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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And I would bet on a secondary pitch coming along before I bet on command developing.

If Greene can keep up a respectable K-rate (which he did in short spurts at the lower levels) and his current crazy GB% (which is completely new for him) then he can even get away without improving his command. But I see Zeuch as doing pretty much everything well right now.

Which is a bit of my issue, but I digress.

I agree, the development of a pitcher's secondary stuff is much more likely than them suddenly developing command.

I believe what happened with Aaron is far more the exception to the rule. I actually wish Nasty Nazem was still around these parts so we could bump some of the old arguments about starting pitchers in Double-A having BB% rates above 4.5 never seeing success in the majors.
 

Eyedea

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Absolutely. Which goes to show you that A+ success for a pitcher really doesn't carry a remarkable amount of weight. Double-A tends to reveal actual trends (such as high GB%, or homerun and flyball suppression, and K%) that have a chance of carry over to the majors. I never said they were the same. I simply said he could be Wainwright or he could be Deck. Kyle Drabek never gave up a homerun in A+, yet gave them out like skittles in the majors.

I understand. I'm one of the few that has pretty much been down (or at least level-headed) regarding Maese for the past year.
 

zeke

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Not when he was in A+.

And they have a good amount in common. Both were 21/22 when breaking into full season ball, both sit\sat at 92-94 with their fastball at that age. Both have two breaking balls that are not plus (yet, for Zeuch). Both are tall, long levered right handed pitchers, with good control (and not enough K for my liking).

well, for the record, Zeuch's performance statistically right now is miles ahead of mcguire's at the same point. it's not really all that close.

zeuch's performance is more in line with what sanchez was doing at that point.
 

zeke

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yep, the one year drabek put up above-mediocre numbers. never before, never since.

and where was drabek ranked that year?
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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yep, the one year drabek put up above-mediocre numbers. never before, never since.

and where was drabek ranked that year?

#25...right after Casey Kelly, and right before Jacob Turner. Man, prospect rankers sure have evolved since 2010, and seem to place less value on pitching performances below Double-A, huh.
 

metafour

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Anyone know who keith law had the jays taking in his mock draft today?

He didn't do any of the Comp picks...

22. Toronto Blue Jays

Jake Burger, 3B

Missouri State

Burger has real power and rarely strikes out, though scouts think the power is ahead of his hit tool. He’s very likely to end up at first base.
 

Discoverer

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#25...right after Casey Kelly, and right before Jacob Turner. Man, prospect rankers sure have evolved since 2010, and seem to place less value on pitching performances below Double-A, huh.

That #25 ranking for Drabek was based on a season in which he spent most of the year at Double-A... so...
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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That #25 ranking for Drabek was based on a season in which he spent most of the year at Double-A... so...

Where his strikeout rate dropped, his whip, HR%, and BB% increased, and his FIP increased by two runs. He showed enough red flags that the Jays decided to repeat him in Double-A again, where the trend continued.

I don't know why you guys are defensive about me stating the obvious. The biggest leap between levels is that from A/A+ to AA.
 

Canada4Gold

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Maese having a really nice game. 3rd outing in a row he's went 7. The K's aren't really there yet but oh well.

Vlad Jr probably has his last chance to extend his on base streak now coming up
 

Discoverer

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Where his strikeout rate dropped, his whip, HR%, and BB% increased, and his FIP increased by two runs. He showed enough red flags that the Jays decided to repeat him in Double-A again, where the trend continued.

I don't know why you guys are defensive about me stating the obvious. The biggest leap between levels is that from A/A+ to AA.

I don't see why anything I've posted comes across as being defensive. I just disagree with something you said.

Scouts didn't boost him up the prospect rankings based on his A+ performance. It was likely a factor, obviously, since he pitched 60+ innings at that level in 2009, but by the time he was seen as a big time prospect and got that #25 BA ranking, he had thrown nearly 100 innings at AA.
 

Eyedea

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http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/0/v7151053/2010-mlbcom-top-50-prospects-show

Start at 23:30

John Hart was all praise about Drabek (and Wallace right afterward). BA gave Drabek a 70 grade on his curveball (though to be fair, it seemed like they just tossed 70s around like candy back then). He had loud tools, but his mechanics were major red flags. From all reports Zeuch is more finesse and has a solid, repeatable delivery. I don't see a major problem in him having fringe/average secondary offerings, as long as he can spot his fastball. That's going to be his pitch, just like it is for Happ right now.
 

zeke

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my point is that all of zeuch's numbers are in the "top prospect" range, and he has the draft pedigree/raw tools to back it up.

using drabek to counter that example doesn't make sense because A) drabek WAS a top prospect B) drabek's numbers were mostly poor aside from that one season C) nobody is saying zeuch is a lock to be a good mlber.


and i don't think there's a magic dividing line between A+ and AA. plenty of single A prospects can deservedly be ranked high based on performance.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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No one said a damn thing about magical.

Of course, pitchers face similar challenges upon reaching Double-A. Where once they could dominate lower-minors competition solely with big velocity, hurlers now have to mix in secondary offerings and sharpen their command.

“One noticeable change for pitchers moving from High-A to Double-A is the ability to consistently locate a breaking ball while also throwing around 90 mph,” McDaniel said. “Those two abilities alone will likely get a pitcher through the A-Ball levels pretty easily.”

Just as hitters face a tougher brand of competition, so too do pitchers have to prove that they can continually succeed against better quality opposition. At a level where batters are beginning to develop a smarter, more refined approach, young hurlers can’t overmatch batters without their own well-executed plan.

“A typical Double-A hitter is less likely than his A-ball counterpart to chase junk pitches outside the strike zone,” Sickels said. “You’re more likely to find hitters capable of handling major league quality fastballs; there are fewer weak bats that you can just overpower. If your command isn’t sharp, or if you don’t have something to go with your fastball, those weaknesses will get exposed quickly in Double-A.”

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-double-a-jump-2/
 

Walshy7

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hey guys is Danny Jansen a legit catching prospect? I mean will he stay a catcher he is playing really well (by box score), he and Pentecost seem to be sharing the C role in A+ but Jansen seems to catch more
 
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