Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[Discoverer]

Vlad is on what now, a 26 game on base streak to start the year? Something like that.

Yep. A walk, a single, and a pair of doubles tonight. Goddamn.

I know it's hard to make too many adjustments to rankings based on a month of baseball, but considering the only knock against Guerrero was lack of track record and he's having arguably (though... not really arguably) the most impressive season of any prospect, he has to be easily pushing Top 10 territory at this point.

I don't know that there's a prospect in baseball I would trade him for. His ceiling is absolutely through he roof, and he's putting up the numbers to support it.

 

[hizzoner]

He hasn't been "figured out" because if that were the case we would've seen this adjustment earlier than 7 years after his breakout.

The more likely culprit is simply that the continued degradation of his skills has hit the tipping point where more exploitable weak points have appeared. His bat speed has slowed and he can't get around on some pitches. And his power has dipped and caused some of his not-quite-squared balls that would clear the fence to drop off into the realm of the deep fly out. 2016 Bautista showed the cracks, but had enough gas in the tank to still put up a pretty good season by average MLBer standards (though one that looked bad by his own lofty standards of the decade). That's why I didn't want him back, because that seemed to be coming. If there's a saving grace it's that his one-year-plus-options deal is easily movable and not a noose around the team's neck if he does indeed settle into his current performance being the new normal.

I realize that it comes to the same conclusion that you did (bringing Bautista back was probably not a smart move) but if you're going to have a conclusion, at least get there with evidence that can be validated and supported. Otherwise it opens the door for people to dismiss the conclusion by poking holes in the shaky evidence.

The fact that he was never a bunting threat is also largely immaterial because when you have a big bat the caliber of 2010-15 Jose Bautista, you don't ask him to bunt.

As a small aside, the idea that he was worse with RISP last season is pretty much untrue.

2016 bases empty: .211 avg, .747 OPS, .332 wOBA, 106 wRC+
2016 runners on: .265 avg, .911 OPS, .384 wOBA, 142 wRC+
2016 RISP: .290 avg, .984 OPS, .412 wOBA, 161 wRC+

and

2016 playoffs overall: .182 avg, .702 OPS
2016 playoffs RISP: .286 avg, 1.089 OPS

I don't have wOBA or wRC+ for the playoffs as RISP splits. Also the #s in general are a fairly extreme small sample size warning (7 of 33 total playoff ABs were with RISP), but still.....

As you get older I would expect you adjust what you do. I was trying to say he is not adjusting. As to the rest I bow to your stats--but my memory cam keeps replaying times I was having fits when we got nothing from Jose with a man on. I liked him a lot for many years--he gave us a lot of high lights and key hits--but time marches on.

 

[King Mapes]

I know 88-90 has been enough in the past, but I wonder if it's even enough this year. NY/BAL has started the year on fire, and Boston is just rounding into shape.

They likely cool off though. I doubt more than 5 teams in the AL get more than 90 wins. Everything evens out at the end of the year.

 

[Eyedea]

Leblebijian went 4-4 with a walk.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Leblebijian went 4-4 with a walk.

#mattcarpenterlite

 

[The Nemesis]

As you get older I would expect you adjust what you do. I was trying to say he is not adjusting. As to the rest I bow to your stats--but my memory cam keeps replaying times I was having fits when we got nothing from Jose with a man on. I liked him a lot for many years--he gave us a lot of high lights and key hits--but time marches on.

His play style doesn't lend itself to much in the way of adjusting. Everything about his rebuilt/modified mechanics from the back end of 09 onward has been about using his crazy crazy good plate discipline to sell out for power. He doesn't have it in him to be "smaller ball" type hitter that sprays the ball around or anything like that. That's what the Pirates and Orioles were trying to do with him early in his career and it led to him being little more than a borderline 25th man who got passed around on waivers.

As to the memory of "big moment" failures, I'd just chalk that up to good old fashioned cognitive biases. Our brains work against us, remembering the big failures because they a) provoke a strong reaction and b) jive with current awful perception of Jose's current awfulness.

 

[Acekicker123]

He's back!

 

[theaub]

As to the memory of "big moment" failures, I'd just chalk that up to good old fashioned cognitive biases. Our brains work against us, remembering the big failures because they a) provoke a strong reaction and b) jive with current awful perception of Jose's current awfulness.

Considering Jose has failed at basically every moment this year I'd say its fair.

His WPA, needless to say, is abysmal (-0.72, which is 7th worst in the league, although not even the worst on the Jays - and specifically his negative WPA is 5th worst, and somehow that's only 3rd worst on the Jays). Although he's actually technically been an above water 'clutch' player this year, pretty much solely on the strength of that one homer in Anaheim.

Its actually kind of nuts that four Jays (Pillar, Travis, Bautista, Morales) rank in the top 8 of negative WPA, which shows how unlucky the Jays have been with sequencing so far this year.

 

[The Nemesis]

Considering Jose has failed at basically every moment this year I'd say its fair.

His WPA, needless to say, is abysmal (-0.72, which is 7th worst in the league, although not even the worst on the Jays - and specifically his negative WPA is 5th worst, and somehow that's only 3rd worst on the Jays). Although he's actually technically been an above water 'clutch' player this year, pretty much solely on the strength of that one homer in Anaheim.

Its actually kind of nuts that four Jays (Pillar, Travis, Bautista, Morales) rank in the top 8 of negative WPA, which shows how unlucky the Jays have been with sequencing so far this year.

I wasn't talking about this year. I was talking about last season/the playoffs

This year Bautista indeed been garbage, clutch situations or otherwise.

 

[theaub]

Even last year his leverage stats dropped dramatically from the few years before that.

It may be correlation over causation, but its not inaccurate.

 

[TorMapleJays]

I was there last night and I was all over edwin. No standing o for me. I told him he sucked when he was on deck.. got told to sit down by like 20 people..... byou the end of the game... everyone was booing and cheering him striking out.....

Edwin left. He's Kevin Duran. He's a Indian.

I'm a jays fan

 

[theaub]

Kevin Duran Duran?

I for one am shocked that the vast majority (read: logical) of Jays fans cheered Edwin his first time up and then cheered against him the rest of the game.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I was there last night and I was all over edwin. No standing o for me. I told him he sucked when he was on deck.. got told to sit down by like 20 people..... byou the end of the game... everyone was booing and cheering him striking out.....

Edwin left. He's Kevin Duran. He's a Indian.

I'm a jays fan

Is he hungry like the wolf, as well?

 

[Discoverer]

Even last year his leverage stats dropped dramatically from the few years before that.

It may be correlation over causation, but its not inaccurate.

It's definitely inaccurate to say that he's worse in high leverage situations than low/medium leverage situations.

 

[doorman]

It's getting past the 'it's early' stage on Bautista. If he hasn't started hitting in the next two weeks, you have to look at dropping him to the bench and pinch-hitting duties.

I will be in the minority here, but I still don't drop him to the bench because of his ability to draw walks. While his batting avg is down his OBP is still decent for this team and you need guys on base to score runs. Jose is a smart player with a good eye, I think eventually he starts to adjust his timing, but that could just be me. That being said if other guys start to push because they're continuing to play better then yes you revisit.

 

[Discoverer]

Kevin Duran Duran?

I for one am shocked that the vast majority (read: logical) of Jays fans cheered Edwin his first time up and then cheered against him the rest of the game.

Yeah, despite a history of being morons in these types of situations, Jays fans played the Edwin situation perfectly last night.

 

[tp71]

Kevin Duran Duran?

I for one am shocked that the vast majority (read: logical) of Jays fans cheered Edwin his first time up and then cheered against him the rest of the game.

I think it's a fair response. Cheer first time, thanks for everything. After that, you're the enemy.

Personally I won't boo nor cheer him. I choose to just cheer for the Jays.

 

[Discoverer]

I will be in the minority here, but I still don't drop him to the bench because of his ability to draw walks. While his batting avg is down his OBP is still decent for this team and you need guys on base to score runs. Jose is a smart player with a good eye, I think eventually he starts to adjust his timing, but that could just be me. That being said if other guys start to push because they're continuing to play better then yes you revisit.

To me, you don't drop him down in the lineup because who the hell else are you planning on moving up there? With Donaldson, Tulo, and Martin all out, you already have Morales and Smoak in the 3/4 spots. So who do you give more at bats in order to give Bautista fewer? Pearce and Travis have been equally awful. Carrera, Barney, or Goins? No thanks.

Just leave him there and hope he turns things around. If he hasn't improved by the time the injured guys get back, absolutely move him down.

 

[ACC1224]

When are Donaldson and Tulo expected to be back?

 

[Discoverer]

#mattcarpenterlite

I always thought Andy Burns could be that type of guy (a bit of power, a bit of speed, good enough hitter to play everyday and enough versatility to play multiple positions as needed), but he basically leveled off into a league average hitter once he reached AA. Leblebijian kept it up at AA and has made huge strides in literally every aspect of his offensive game a month after his first 100 PA in AAA. Power way up, walks way up, strikeouts way down... I was surprised to see he's even played a bit of SS this year. He's an interesting guy, and I would have no problem seeing him replace Coghlan at this point (though I doubt they rush to find a spot for him).

Also, Guerrero ended up getting another walk last night. Got on base all five times. now a 195 wRC+. He's having easily the most impressive season of any prospect in baseball.

 

[theaub]

At what point do I accept that instead of spending next Sunday in downtown Chicago I'm going to drive four hours round trip to watch Lansing play in South Bend?

 

[Discoverer]

At what point do I accept that instead of spending next Sunday in downtown Chicago I'm going to drive four hours round trip to watch Lansing play in South Bend?

It sounds like the right decision.

 

[zeke]

2yr RP (2016-2017)

RH Osuna (22): 84gms, 86.0ip, 28.9k%/4.5b%, 67era-, 70fip-, 81xfip-, 1.8war/65ip
RH Barnes (27): 19gms, 23.2ip, 22.9k%/8.3b%, 72era-, 52fip-, 99xfip-, 1.4war/65ip
RH Biagini (27): 74gms, 86.1ip, 21.6k%/6.0b%, 74era-, 67fip-, 84xfip-, 1.1war/65ip
RH Smith (33): 71gms, 68.0ip, 22.5k%/8.2b%, 79era-, 103fip-, 90xfip-, 0.6war/65ip
LH Loup (29): 33gms, 27.0ip, 23.1k%/9.9b%, 71era-, 88fip-, 98xfip-, 0.6war/65ip
RH Tepera (29): 32gms, 35.2ip, 22.4k%/10.9b%, 92era-, 85fip-, 105xfip-, 0.5war/65ip
LH Howell (34): 70gms, 53.1ip, 19.2k%/7.7b%, 111era-, 95fip-, 92xfip-, -0.1war/65ip
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RH Grilli (40): 79gms, 68.2ip, 31.0k%/13.7b%, 116era-, 118fip-, 102xfip-, -0.3war/65ip
RH Leone (25): 37gms, 40.1ip, 20.4k%/8.9b%, 136era-, 130fip-, 115xfip-, -0.7war/65ip



It'll be interesting to see what they do if/when the pitching staff gets healthy. For me it's starting to be pretty obvious that Grilli would have to be dropped, but we'll see.


The more overarching point here being that that pen kinda sorta looks pretty good.

 

[theaub]

Launch Grilli into the sun

Still would like to find another lefty, but yeah. Bigger issue right now is the garbage starters ERA (which hopefully picks up once Sanchez/Happ return).

 

[zeke]

p.s. Vladdy is the best prospect we've ever had.