Is Patrik Elias worthy to get to HHOF?

[tarheelhockey]

4 players from a team that was a 3 time cup winner and 15+ year perennial contender making the HOF is not anything crazy.

But Elias was not a 3 time Cup winner. He didn’t play in the NHL full time until 1998, and was part of a very different cohort of players than the one which won the Cup in 1995.

Shall we place the same cutoff on the hawks?

I’m speaking specifically to this notion that he had to sacrifice offense to excel defensivemy. We’re talking about a guy who was not in fact a Selke contender in his own right, who played in front of Brodeur/Stevens/Niedermayer, in a famously disciplined structure, and played wing for the most relevant period of success. The claim is that he sacrificed a big chunk of offense in order to carry the team defensively, but that claim doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. There were plenty of other guys in the league who could have won Cups while posting better numbers with that Devils core. Those guys are by and large the ones who get into the HHOF.

It’s a bit like talking about offense on the 80s Oilers. Once you get down the roster past Gretzky/Coffey/Kurri/Messier, understanding the way that team played and the norms of the time period, it’s no disrespect to Glenn Anderson and his ~500 goals to say he probably wasn’t an HOF’er just because he was “one of the best offensive players on a dynasty”.

With Elias, the offensive output simply wasn’t at the standard HHOF level. Nobody’s denying he was also a good defender, but let’s be real… he wasn’t in the Gainey/Carbonneau realm of guys who make the HHOF without offensive numbers anywhere close to the usual bar.

He was a good two-way player who happened to play on a team with multiple HOF’ers, which explains the team success. That’s plenty of substance for an honorable reputation in the game. It’s no disrespect to say he falls short of HHOF induction.

 

[dgibb10]

But Elias was not a 3 time Cup winner. He didn’t play in the NHL full time until 1998, and was part of a very different cohort of players than the one which won the Cup in 1995.




I’m speaking specifically to this notion that he had to sacrifice offense to excel defensivemy. We’re talking about a guy who was not in fact a Selke contender in his own right, who played in front of Brodeur/Stevens/Niedermayer, in a famously disciplined structure, and played wing for the most relevant period of success. The claim is that he sacrificed a big chunk of offense in order to carry the team defensively, but that claim doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. There were plenty of other guys in the league who could have won Cups while posting better numbers with that Devils core. Those guys are by and large the ones who get into the HHOF.

It’s a bit like talking about offense on the 80s Oilers. Once you get down the roster past Gretzky/Coffey/Kurri/Messier, understanding the way that team played and the norms of the time period, it’s no disrespect to Glenn Anderson and his ~500 goals to say he probably wasn’t an HOF’er just because he was “one of the best offensive players on a dynasty”.

With Elias, the offensive output simply wasn’t at the standard HHOF level. Nobody’s denying he was also a good defender, but let’s be real… he wasn’t in the Gainey/Carbonneau realm of guys who make the HHOF without offensive numbers anywhere close to the usual bar.

He was a good two-way player who happened to play on a team with multiple HOF’ers, which explains the team success. That’s plenty of substance for an honorable reputation in the game. It’s no disrespect to say he falls short of HHOF induction.

The numbers show Elias defensive excellence continued on well after Stevens and Neidermeyer left, and after he exited his prime.

In his 30s he was still putting up comparable results to the cup years of Kopitar, Toews, and Bergeron.

They let 7 members of that oilers team into the HOF.

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

I think once the Sedins got into an unquestioned first-ballot, you now have to start considering Elias. The hardware and stats aren't there, but the playoff pedigree and the advanced stats are. If the Sedins were bumped up by some great possession metrics then Elias should be too. And all the available possession metrics don't include 99-04 - during which Elias had some of his more dominant years. Yes Daniel and Henrik had years where they were the best player, while Elias just has 6th in Hart in 01. But we have now changed the definition of what it means to be a good defensively-responsible forward outside of PK time and being a shutdown guy.

It's true that Elias never got the minutes against the other team's top lines. That was Holik line and then Madden/Pandolfo. He also never PKed, so that's why he never got any Selke votes. Again, think about how the reputation of the Sedins has changed from paper-soft and potential defensive liability to now being seen as dominant possession and play-drivers (i.e. the best defense is a good offense).

 

[tarheelhockey]

The numbers show Elias defensive excellence continued on well after Stevens and Neidermeyer left, and after he exited his prime.

In his 30s he was still putting up comparable results to the cup years of Kopitar, Toews, and Bergeron.

I will simply stand on the opinion that late-career Elias was not the defensive equal of peak Kopitar, Toews, Bergeron.

They let 7 members of that oilers team into the HOF.

And they really, really shouldn’t have.

 

[dgibb10]

I will simply stand on the opinion that late-career Elias was not the defensive equal of peak Kopitar, Toews, Bergeron.



And they really, really shouldn’t have.

His possession numbers were right up there with them (and his offensive production was in line with theirs too). You can look up above to see.

Elias offensive production was right in line with the other HOFers of that era.

His defensive was levels above most of them. And he won 2 cups.

Unfortunately, defensive views from back then are based on the least accurately voted award of all time, in an era where film wasn't easily available, and advanced numbers also weren't.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Unfortunately, defensive views from back then are based on the least accurately voted award of all time, in an era where film wasn't easily available, and advanced numbers also weren't.

LOL, come on man.

 

[Xirik]

Sorry old timers the genie is out of the bottle, the standards for getting into the HoF has changed and holding other retired players to an old standard when the world has moved on is asinine.

 

[BurntToast]

Until the Modern Devils players pass his team numbers, Elias holds most of the NJ Devils’ offensive records. He is a 2x cup winner. 2x IIHF medalist and a bronze Medalist for weaker Czech Team. 2nd Best Czech player behind only Jagr! Pastrnak is the only modern Czech player with a chance to pass him. The Hockey HoF should take into consideration the accomplishments outside of the NHL and the members significance to their national rank/influence.

 

[tarheelhockey]

For the 15 year period from 1998-99 thru 2012-13, nobody scored more playoff points than Patrik Elias.

And the reason for that is his huge GP advantage due to the team he played for.

During that same timeframe, Elias was 34th in playoff points/game which is a truer reflection of his offensive output. He was closer to Hejduk’s 64th place than to 1st.

In terms of regular season play, for the 5 years from 99-00 thru 2003-04, he was

• 9th in scoring, (4th among wingers)
• 6th in goals
• 4th in ES scoring (2nd among wingers)
• 3rd in ES goals
• 3rd in +/-

Hejduk was:
8th in scoring (+1)
4th in goals (+2)
12th in ev scoring (-8)
7th in ev goals (-4)
1st in +/- (+2)

Overall, his accomplishments are pretty strong

• 2 Cups, 4 trips to the finals
• 408 goals 1,025 points
• 3 Top 10 scoring finishes (3rd, 6th, 10th)
• 2 top 10 goal finishes (4th, 10th)
• 2 20+ point playoff campaigns

All while being one of the best defensive wingers in hockey

Hejduk had

• Stanley Cup
• 375 goals 805 points — in 200 fewer games than Elias
• 4th place scoring finish
• goal finishes of 1-7-7-9
• 2 20+ point playoff campaigns

The argument is damned near identical until you get to defense. See below.

Was Milan Hejduk a Selke caliber player and a center in the second half of his career? Was Hejduk ever close to the best forward on his team at any point? This is disingenuous. Hejduk barely got 800 points, let alone 1,000.

Elias wasn’t a Selke caliber player either. In his peak season, his own teammate got more 1st place Selke votes than Elias got total votes. You just shot yourself in the foot with that one.

He was a good defender, not a great one. This stuff about Selke contention is an oversell.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

And the reason for that is his huge GP advantage due to the team he played for.

During that same timeframe, Elias was 34th in playoff points/game which is a truer reflection of his offensive output. He was closer to Hejduk’s 64th place than to 1st.



Hejduk was:
8th in scoring (+1)
4th in goals (+2)
12th in ev scoring (-8)
7th in ev goals (-4)
1st in +/- (+2)




Hejduk had

• Stanley Cup
• 375 goals 805 points — in 200 fewer games than Elias
• 4th place scoring finish
• goal finishes of 1-7-7-9
• 2 20+ point playoff campaigns

The argument is damned near identical until you get to defense. See below.



Elias wasn’t a Selke caliber player either. In his peak season, his own teammate got more 1st place Selke votes than Elias got total votes. You just shot yourself in the foot with that one.

He was a good defender, not a great one. This stuff about Selke contention is an oversell.

Voting is one thing and of course it matters in the area of perception. However, his play-driving and defensive impacts were Selke caliber. They started keeping advanced stats in the late 00s, when Elias was well into his 30s, and they were some of the best in the league. These are ages 31-39! Imagine how good he was in his 20s.

 

[Wierzbowski426]

There are quite a few lesser players already in the hall so he clearly should get in. He's got a similar case to Alfredsson and he's already in.

I am open to the argument that if the HOF hadn't already been diluted he shouldn't get in but that's not the current reality.

 

[dgibb10]

And the reason for that is his huge GP advantage due to the team he played for.

During that same timeframe, Elias was 34th in playoff points/game which is a truer reflection of his offensive output. He was closer to Hejduk’s 64th place than to 1st.



Hejduk was:
8th in scoring (+1)
4th in goals (+2)
12th in ev scoring (-8)
7th in ev goals (-4)
1st in +/- (+2)




Hejduk had

• Stanley Cup
• 375 goals 805 points — in 200 fewer games than Elias
• 4th place scoring finish
• goal finishes of 1-7-7-9
• 2 20+ point playoff campaigns

The argument is damned near identical until you get to defense. See below.



Elias wasn’t a Selke caliber player either. In his peak season, his own teammate got more 1st place Selke votes than Elias got total votes. You just shot yourself in the foot with that one.

He was a good defender, not a great one. This stuff about Selke contention is an oversell.

Selke voting is legitimately awful, especially back then.

Elias was a selke level defender.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I think he should make it in. Played in the dead puck era.

Scored 400 goals and got over 1000 points.
Solid playoff performer
Internationally did well for hiscountry

He is my vote.

 

[dgibb10]

Voting is one thing and of course it matters in the area of perception. However, his play-driving and defensive impacts were Selke caliber. They started keeping advanced stats in the late 00s, when Elias was well into his 30s, and they were some of the best in the league. These are ages 31-39! Imagine how good he was in his 20s.

View attachment 900947

Elias was keeping up both offensively and possession wise with all of the superstar 2 way selke loved guys in that time frame.

Bergeron, Datystuk (he was a step above), Kopitar, Toews. Right when they were winning cups and Elias was still keeping pace with them both in terms of scoring, PP, PK, and possession metrics

 

[BagHead]

I was playing EA NHL 02 back in the day against this guy who thought he was just the best at NHL hockey games. In fairness to him, I'd had nearly ten years of experience playing EA hockey games at that point, and he was young enough that he'd probably had half that. But my oh my, was he smug.

He took a 1-0 lead into the 3rd period, and was frustrating all my attempts at his goal. My players were squeezing their sticks, and I was squeezing my controller. On the good looks I got, his goalie was coming up with the save. My girlfriend was watching, and I was about to lose to this smirking child.

With 2 minutes left, I took a deep breath, found a calm place within, and called out my 1st line: Elias - Gomez - Langenbrunner. That shift was a blur of back and forth chances at both nets, but Niedermayer, doing Niedermayer things, smoothly transitioned the puck one last time to a streaking Patrik Elias. The angle was bad, but that's when I saw Langenbrunner trailing in on the other side of the slot. Classic cross-crease one-timer, and his defender was just out of position thanks to Elias's late-shift speed. He sent the pass across cleanly, and Langenbrunner wasted no time in getting it off his stick and past the goalie. Tie game, and the sound of my opponent calling me lucky.

But this was Elias, not luck. Maybe it was because there was only a minute left, or maybe it was some crazy intuition but, on their final fumes, I kept the 1st line on the ice. Gomez won the faceoff cleanly, back to Rafalski. Rafalski up to Elias who split the defense. The deke, the goalie followed, but just late. Red light, GOAL! Elias! 40 seconds on the clock! Call out Madden and Pandolfo, this one is over!!!! The tears, they taste of salt!

Patrik Elias is going to the hall of fame!!!!

 

[Beau Knows]

I think he reaches the standards some of the guys in the Hall have set. I think it should be a bit more restrictive, and in that case he wouldn't get in.

But with 1000 points (DPE) and a couple Cups, he probably gets in one day.

 

[mr figgles]

Top 10 in League scoring 3 times. Over 1000 points in his career playing across two of the most dire scoring environments the league has seen.

Yes. Next question.

 

[Czechboy]

I think he should but definitely not top.of.the class.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Elias wasn’t a Selke caliber player either. In his peak season, his own teammate got more 1st place Selke votes than Elias got total votes. You just shot yourself in the foot with that one.

He was a good defender, not a great one. This stuff about Selke contention is an oversell.

You are judging Elias's defensive impact and play driving abilities by Selke votes? You just shot yourself in the face. On some of the stingiest defensive teams of the last 40 years Elias was in a tier of his own relative to his teammates.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Voting is one thing and of course it matters in the area of perception. However, his play-driving and defensive impacts were Selke caliber. They started keeping advanced stats in the late 00s, when Elias was well into his 30s, and they were some of the best in the league. These are ages 31-39! Imagine how good he was in his 20s.

View attachment 900947

“Imagine” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

Elias played on one of the most high profile teams in the league, and specifically on perhaps the most over-analyzed team of all time when it comes to defensive structure. This in the NYC market with their entire regular season on the FOX network and available locally to the nation’s largest population and media hub, and high-profile games plus playoff games shown nationally on ESPN.

(This is why I LOL’ed at your prior comment about “an era when video wasn’t easily available”. Believe it or not, Devils games were easier to find on TV in 2000 than they were in 2013.)

Yeah, people were familiar with the Devils and who their defensive standouts were. Aside from Brodeur winning Vezinas and Niedermayer winning a Norris and Stevens winning the Smythe, John Madden won the Selke with that team (and was a runner up three times). Scott Gomez got so much credit for his two-way game that the Rangers stepped in and gave him a Nurse-quality contract. All eyes were on that team, specifically for their defense, specifically on the forwards who were most crucial in the matchup games that made them successful.

You’re asking me to “imagine” that somehow through all of that, nobody noticed Elias being the best defensive forward in the NHL? That the entire hockey world watched this guy constantly and just didn’t pick up on him being better than his own teammates? That’s a take that suggests you don’t have a clear recollection of the era, and are making some really dubious assumptions about what went on in the NHL before 2010 or so.

Selke voting is legitimately awful, especially back then.

Elias was a selke level defender.

You are judging Elias's defensive impact and play driving abilities by Selke votes? You just shot yourself in the face. On some of the stingiest defensive teams of the last 40 years Elias was in a tier of his own relative to his teammates.

See above. Absolutely nobody (including clear-thinking Devils fans) seriously thought of Elias as equal to Bergeron or Kopitar during his career. Selke votes may not be the most accurate, but they aren’t pulled out of a hat either. If a guy is getting close to zero Selke votes over a long period of time it’s a safe bet that he just isn’t that guy.

Likewise, you’d have been hard pressed to find anyone who felt they were watching a HHOF career when he was on the ice. This argument only came up when he was being honored in retirement, same as it did for Pavelski this year.

The attempt to over-sell Elias as a “hidden” Selke winner is characteristic of revisionist arguments for weak candidates. It’s a lot like the “triple gold” case for Mogilny, which ignores that he was a total passenger on great teams. In this case we’re just going to ignore that Elias was never considered a top-tier defensive forward, and pretend that having a high CF%rel is the same thing as being a multi-Selke winner.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

“Imagine” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

Elias played on one of the most high profile teams in the league, and specifically on perhaps the most over-analyzed team of all time when it comes to defensive structure. This in the NYC market with their entire regular season on the FOX network and available locally to the nation’s largest population and media hub, and high-profile games plus playoff games shown nationally on ESPN.

(This is why I LOL’ed at your prior comment about “an era when video wasn’t easily available”. Believe it or not, Devils games were easier to find on TV in 2000 than they were in 2013.)

Yeah, people were familiar with the Devils and who their defensive standouts were. Aside from Brodeur winning Vezinas and Niedermayer winning a Norris and Stevens winning the Smythe, John Madden won the Selke with that team (and was a runner up three times). Scott Gomez got so much credit for his two-way game that the Rangers stepped in and gave him a Nurse-quality contract. All eyes were on that team, specifically for their defense, specifically on the forwards who were most crucial in the matchup games that made them successful.

You’re asking me to “imagine” that somehow through all of that, nobody noticed Elias being the best defensive forward in the NHL? That the entire hockey world watched this guy constantly and just didn’t pick up on him being better than his own teammates? That’s a take that suggests you don’t have a clear recollection of the era, and are making some really dubious assumptions about what went on in the NHL before 2010 or so.






See above. Absolutely nobody (including clear-thinking Devils fans) seriously thought of Elias as equal to Bergeron or Kopitar during his career. Selke votes may not be the most accurate, but they aren’t pulled out of a hat either. If a guy is getting close to zero Selke votes over a long period of time it’s a safe bet that he just isn’t that guy.

Likewise, you’d have been hard pressed to find anyone who felt they were watching a HHOF career when he was on the ice. This argument only came up when he was being honored in retirement, same as it did for Pavelski this year.

The attempt to over-sell Elias as a “hidden” Selke winner is characteristic of revisionist arguments for weak candidates. It’s a lot like the “triple gold” case for Mogilny, which ignores that he was a total passenger on great teams. In this case we’re just going to ignore that Elias was never considered a top-tier defensive forward, and pretend that having a high CF%rel is the same thing as being a multi-Selke winner.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1811866314937684320

Elias was a world class defensive forward. He was very much a selke caliber forward with excellent production to boot.

 

[KevinRedkey]

For me, Elias is as basically close to the fence as one can be, while still being on the wrong side. He may as well be the bar itself.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

The line has to be drawn somewhere. He was a great player and most hockey players would love to have his career but he was not one of the giant stars. I suppose it comes down to if you are an extremely exclusive HOF guy or not

 

[Ducks4Cup]

Let’s face it, it is now the Hall of Very Good so I say yes.
I love the devils and Elias was one of my favorite players but even I wish it was more clear cut.

 

[Xirik]

Let’s face it, it is now the Hall of Very Good so I say yes.
I love the devils and Elias was one of my favorite players but even I wish it was more clear cut.

Exactly no point using the old metrics and old standards if they aren't being used anymore. people can yell and moan about how great the past was but the HoF has moved on whether some people like it or not.