Is Patrik Elias worthy to get to HHOF?

[Regal]

Was Milan Hejduk a Selke caliber player and a center in the second half of his career? Was Hejduk ever close to the best forward on his team at any point? This is disingenuous. Hejduk barely got 800 points, let alone 1,000.

Yea I’d say there’s a pretty big difference in length of career and overall game here. Elias belongs in the Hossa/Alfredsson/Zetterberg tier of player. Hejduk is a level below that

 

[Statto]

Here's a post I made on this topic in 2013. The data is current through 2013.

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Elias is 7th in scoring from 1998 to 2012 (behind Thornton, Iginla, Jagr, Selanne, Alfredsson and Hossa), all of whom will likely be in the Hall of Fame. The players ranked 9th (St. Louis), 11th (Lidstrom), 13th (Sakic) and 14th (Recchi) will all be in the Hall of Fame too. Link.

The only others players in the top fifteen in scoring over the course of Elias's career are Whitney, Lecavalier, Marleau and Kovalev. (Coincidentally, these are the only players during that period to score more than 800 points). There are several reasons why there's a clear separation between Elias and the other four:

- Elias spent most of his career on a defense-first, low-scoring team, which suppressed his offensive statistics. (I know there are some exceptions to this - such as 2001 when the Devils were the league's highest scoring team).

- Elias was more of an offensive catalyst, leading his team seven times (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2011), more than any of the other players [Whitney (1999, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2012), Kovalev (2002, 2006, 2008, 2009), Lecavalier (2000, 2007 2008), Marleau (2001, 2004, 2011)].

- Elias is better than any of the other five defensively (by a wide margin over Kovalev and Lecavalier, and smaller but clear margin over Marleau and Whitney).

- Elias has a higher ppg in the playoffs (0.77) than Marleau (0.68) and Whitney (0.51). He's only slightly behind Kovalev (0.81 ppg; over more games (162-123), with Kovalev playing more than one-third of his PO games during/prior to the high-scoring era ending in 1996 vs none for Elias) and Lecavalier (0.83 ppg; but over significantly more games (162-63) with Lecavalier playing none past age 30).

- I realize that this is partially a product of playing on a strong team, but Elias was a top ten playoff scorer as many times as the other four combined (T-2nd, T-3rd, T-10th for Elias; T-6th, T-6th for Lecavalier; 6th for Kovalev; never in top ten for Marleau and Whitney).

- Elias is the only one who was a first-team all-star (Kovalev and Lecavalier were a second team all-star once each).

- All the players except Whitney placed in the top ten in Hart voting once (Lecavalier 4th, Elias 6th, Kovalev 8th, Marleau 10th).

- Elias was in the top ten in scoring as many times as the other four players combined (3rd, 6th, T-10th for Elias; 3rd, T-6th for Lecavalier; T-4th for Kovalev; never in top ten for Marleau and Whitney). Elias placed in the top twenty four times (as many times as Kovalev, and more than each of the others).

- None of these players have exceptional resumes in terms of international play. Lecavalier had the most dominant performance (leading scorer on the gold medal Canadian team in 2004, including scoring the OT goal to eliminate the Czechs in the semi-final) but I don't think this moves his significantly ahead of Elias (who scored a strong 5 points in 5 games that tournament, and had three trips to the Olympics).

- I realize this analysis exactly coincides with Elias's career (excluding the 18 games he played in 1996 and 1997, plus what has been a very good start to 2013). Marleau and Lecavalier entered the NHL in 1998 and 1999, respectively, so all of their careers are considered. This excludes 121 points in 200 games in a high-scoring era for Whitney which, all things considered, doesn't help him much. Kovalev adds 215 points in 315 games, which gives him a clear edge in longevity, but not enough to overcome Elias' other advantages.

- I realize that this is a minor point, but aside from Marleau all of the players have been fairly similar in terms of health (Marleau has averaged 80 games per season, Whitney 74, Elias 73, Lecavalier 71, Kovalev 71).

I think Elias deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and has put enough distance ahead of Lecavalier, Kovalev, Marleau and Whitney that the line should be drawn after the Czech, and before the others.

Thanks. You saved me some typing. If the HHOF folks take the situational context of his career into context when looking at his numbers (defensive NJ team), DPE etc then he should get in.

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

Hall of very good. But hall of fame is iffy. He kinda falls in that Jeremy Roenick category where the numbers are pretty good, but it even took Roenick 8 cycles before he got the nod. If he makes it, it'll be decently far down the line.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Short answer - yes

Long answer - doesnt have the name recognition to maybe do it

 

[dgibb10]

He was a leader for the devils for a decade? Sounds like a great reason for the devils to retire his number. Sadly, he never really stood out among the leagues elite in a way that merits the HHOF (which includes more than just devils).

A defensive focused system in the dead puck era didn't produce an offensive juggernaut. Shocker.

Elias was incredibly underrated, both defensively and offensively.

Even from ages 31-37, he had elite possession and defensive results.

But I can see, how, given he played in an era before those advanced numbers were widely available or understood, on a team people hated because it was "boring", in an era where scoring was at an all time low, on a defensively focused team, how his brilliance would go unappreciated. Throw in him being from czechslovakia and it gets even worse.

He fits in more along with the Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews of the world.

In fact, here are some comparisons between those 3 from ages 20-26, 21-27, and 19-25 respectively. (Elias ages 31-37). This is the time frame where they won all of their cups (except toews 2014-15)

5v5 possession results

All situations individual production rates

Even Strength production rates

Penalty Kill results

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Martin St. Louis has two scoring titles and a Hart and Pearson. Remind me when Elias won any of those things? And he scored roughly the same number of points in 100 less games than Elias did. St. Louis was unquestionably the better player.

Unquestionably?

Offensively sure but I dont think anything about the two players' entire portfolios says unquestionably better player; team and playoff accomplishments being cast aside entirely is foolhardy. Hes 59th in playoff scoring (and that includes higher-scoring eras)

And one of those scoring titles St Louis has (though still valid) was in a half-season

Edit: Elias is also 66th in playoff games

 

[dgibb10]

Martin St. Louis has two scoring titles and a Hart and Pearson. Remind me when Elias won any of those things? And he scored roughly the same number of points in 100 less games than Elias did. St. Louis was unquestionably the better player.

One of these players was elite defensively.

 

[Felidae]

For all the praise Elias gets defensively, he only ever received selke votes in 4 out of 20 years and was never a finalist.

This is not to say he wasn't very good or even elite defensively, but it certainly doesn't show in selke voting. Yes, he was overshadowed by other defensive forwards on the team. But even after they left, his selke record didn't change much at all

And just as people say the strict defensive teams he played on held back his offensive prowess, one could also say those same teams may have highlighted his defensive ability compared to if he was on any other team.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Definitely. With some of the dreck that’s been admitted over the past however many years I don’t even know how it’s a question.

 

[Prairie Habs]

A defensive focused system in the dead puck era didn't produce an offensive juggernaut. Shocker.

Elias was incredibly underrated, both defensively and offensively.

Even from ages 31-37, he had elite possession and defensive results.

But I can see, how, given he played in an era before those advanced numbers were widely available or understood, on a team people hated because it was "boring", in an era where scoring was at an all time low, on a defensively focused team, how his brilliance would go unappreciated. Throw in him being from czechslovakia and it gets even worse.

He fits in more along with the Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews of the world.

In fact, here are some comparisons between those 3 from ages 20-26, 21-27, and 19-25 respectively. (Elias ages 31-37). This is the time frame where they won all of their cups (except toews 2014-15)

5v5 possession results
View attachment 900608
All situations individual production rates
View attachment 900609
Even Strength production rates
View attachment 900610
Penalty Kill results
View attachment 900613

Elias joined the devils full time in 97/98 (so he missed the devils first cup, not sure why someone was saying he has 3). From then until the lockout the devils were 6th in league scoring. Not sure how he was being held back in the dead puck era by the 6th nest offense in the league.

You can print out his defensive possession advanced stats from ages 31-37 and tape them to whatever plaque he has in the devils arena. Those aren't reasons to make the HHOF.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Elias joined the devils full time in 97/98 (so he missed the devils first cup, not sure why someone was saying he has 3). From then until the lockout the devils were 6th in league scoring. Not sure how he was being held back in the dead puck era by the 6th nest offense in the league.

You can print out his defensive possession advanced stats from ages 31-37 and tape them to whatever plaque he has in the devils arena. Those aren't reasons to make the HHOF.

Everything is a culmination of reasons as to why he should or shouldnt be

Longevity and consistency at a high level should be why he makes the Hall of Fame

But as long as hes in Jerseys idrc, Im sure its nice for him but most voters only see stats and name

 

[Staniowski]

I like Elias, I would vote for him, and there's a good chance he'll be inducted in the coming years. A lot of people like him a lot.

But, it's also possible he'll wait a while, maybe even a long while. His all-star selections, career points, and Selke votes aren't eye-catching; this could be an issue.

 

[Voight]

He's the devils all time leading point scorer by over 300 points with 1025 in 1240 games (second place John maclean with 701 in 934), almost 500 points up on 3rd place Travis zajac. If he had played on one of those original 6 teams he wouldn't stand out nearly as much.

No individual awards and barely 1000 points, well under point per game. Only made the post-season allstar team once. And, for those who confuse which one is important in all HHOF discussions, that's the one people care about, not allstar game appearances. The allstar game is mid season, needs representatives from every team, and is so disrespected that players turn it down or play up injuries not to go.

Thats just it. I won't deny the HHOF has a small bias towards Original 6 & popular teams but Elias' body of work would probably look less impressive on certain teams (that's not a slight against him, he'd just be competing with a lot more players/history)

 

[dgibb10]

Elias joined the devils full time in 97/98 (so he missed the devils first cup, not sure why someone was saying he has 3). From then until the lockout the devils were 6th in league scoring. Not sure how he was being held back in the dead puck era by the 6th nest offense in the league.

You can print out his defensive possession advanced stats from ages 31-37 and tape them to whatever plaque he has in the devils arena. Those aren't reasons to make the HHOF.

Except they just inducted the sedins (along with virtually all the other forwards they've inducted recently)

Scored less goals per game, less PPG, and didn't win SHIT in the playoffs.

Elias is on par with, or better, then every forward inducted into the hall over the last 6 years besides datysuk.

 

[Voight]

I believe Elias is a HOF. If not, a guy like St. Louis who has similar stats with less cups and finals appearances doesn't get in either.

Sorry what? MSL was one of the best players for a decade and a top 3 player at this position for years.

 

[Johnny Rifle]

It's not called the Hockey Hall of Excellent Players, it's the Hockey Hall of Fame. Elias is probably one of the most underrated players of our generation, but doing the little things that makes teams win championships isn't going to make you stand out in HHOF discussion.

If we were picking an all-time fantasy roster there would be a few Hall of Fame players that would be lower on my draft board than Elias.

 

[Matty Sundin]

Borderline players like him tend to take over a decade or more to get in.

 

[Prairie Habs]

Except they just inducted the sedins (along with virtually all the other forwards they've inducted recently)

Scored less goals per game, less PPG, and didn't win SHIT in the playoffs.

Elias is on par with, or better, then every forward inducted into the hall over the last 6 years besides datysuk.

I wouldn't have the sedins in either, but at least the case could be made that elite level identical twins gets a small boost due to novelty factor. They also each have an art Ross, one has a hart, the other a Lindsey.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

I wouldn't have the sedins in either, but at least the case could be made that elite level identical twins gets a small boost due to novelty factor. They also each have an art Ross, one has a hart, the other a Lindsey.

It’s the Hall of FAME, not the Hall of NOVELTY

 

[Forge]

He's going to get it. His career is basically that of Daniel Sedin minus the awards (his peak season not as good)

You can convince me that the awards are the difference between a first ballot HOF and waiting a decade (which Elias will do), but I'm hard pressed to believe that it makes one a first ballot HOF and the other one not a HOFer at all.

 

[tarheelhockey]

A defensive focused system in the dead puck era didn't produce an offensive juggernaut. Shocker.

But there’s the other side of this coin — Elias was, what, at best the 3rd most important player to the Devils’ defensive success?

Again this gets into the same argument that applies to a lot of second-tier stars: every player on a team can’t be the centerpiece of success. If Brodeur was THAT good, if Stevens was THAT good, if the system was THAT stifling, then Elias was getting a level of defensive help that nobody else was getting. It’s the other side of the “he didn’t get any offensive help” argument.

Something has to give here.

 

[DitchMarner]

He's better than numerous wingers that are in the Hall already including Gillies, Ciccarelli, Andreychuk, Mullen, Anderson and McDonald. I think you can argue him over Gartner as well.

Anderson and Mullen got in because they hit 1000 points, were good in the playoffs and won Multiple Cups. Elias scored over 1000 points and won two Cups (and was a strong playoff performer). He should eventually be inducted.

 

[dgibb10]

But there’s the other side of this coin — Elias was, what, at best the 3rd most important player to the Devils’ defensive success?

Again this gets into the same argument that applies to a lot of second-tier stars: every player on a team can’t be the centerpiece of success. If Brodeur was THAT good, if Stevens was THAT good, if the system was THAT stifling, then Elias was getting a level of defensive help that nobody else was getting. It’s the other side of the “he didn’t get any offensive help” argument.

Something has to give here.

4 players from a team that was a 3 time cup winner and 15+ year perennial contender making the HOF is not anything crazy.

Shall we place the same cutoff on the hawks? Hossa already in so which of Toews Kane or Keith are you leaving out?
Which of Crosby, Malkin, Letang, or Fleury do you leave out?
Which of Vasy, Hedman, Kucherov, or Stamkos do you leave out
Which of the guys from that detroit powerhouse do we leave out?
Which of roy, sakic, bourque, or forsberg are you leaving out?

 

[Ford Prefect]

I was just looking up Holik's career resume and tried to do a comparison to Bob Gainey's career as both were considered to be elite defensively.

Gainey:

GP: 1160
G: 239
A: 262

Playoffs:
GP:182
G:25
A:48

Cups: 5
Conn Smythe: 1
Selke: 4

Elias

GP:1240
G:408
A:617

Playoffs:
GP:162
G:45
A:80

Cups:2


Looking at the numbers Elias consistently produced at a rate that doubled Gainey's while playing in a much lower scoring era. The one glaring thing against Elias is that he never won any individual trophies while Gainey collected 5, including a conn smythe.

The next closest comparison of the HHOF I could think of is maybe Glenn Anderson. Under 500goals and under PPG and no individual awards but his PP and playoff numbers are through the roof.

At first thought I was thinking no, but looking at Elias' career a bit more closely. He's a lot closer than I realized. On a scale of 100, doing this bit of research made me got from 70-30 no, to about a 55-45 no.

Dated post I know, but there is no comparison defensively to Gainey. They created the Selke to acknowledge how good he was defensively. After one of the summit series, I believe it was Kharlamov who said he thought Gainey was the best (or most complete?) player in the game. This was an era without the defensive systems and play type that Elias played in. This is more akin to comparing Rafalski and Stevens/Daneyko and saying they were comparable defensively. A better comparison would be Datsyuk or Bergeron, though with less offence (and to be fair he played on some of the most loaded teams of that era so he didn’t need to be).

 

[Backlund]

He shouldn't but the Hall of Fame is watered down and they feel they need to induct people every year so he'll probably make it in eventually. I really hate the standard they've set.