Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan MacKinnon's Hart?

[Sharksfan66]

I thought this was going to be about getting Rant to sign in Edmonton for 1 year at a low AAV to chase a cup.

I guess in Rant's case, he already has his cup, but it did make me wonder why we don't see more of this these days. Who was the last start to do this? Hossa??

 

[Toby91ca]

Empty net points make this look way closer than it is. Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water this year in every statistical category. He's been the far better goal scorer, far better point producer against goalies, and significantly better defensive player.

Mack will be a finalist, but he doesn't deserve a single first place vote.

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

They are neck and neck in points but Draisaitl has 18 more goals than mack, almost double. and as we saw with Matthews winning his Hart over Mcdavid, Goals matter

 

[VinikToWinIt]

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

Well I think the biggest piece of this is that Kucherov is currently outpacing both of them in points.

So if Mack doesn’t have the highest points OR goals, it’s tough to make a case for him. But yes, “blowing out” is hyperbole and I agree with you on that.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

They are neck and neck in points but Draisaitl has 18 more goals than mack, almost double. and as we saw with Matthews winning his Hart over Mcdavid, Goals matter

Yeah, I agree this isn't a one horse race and MacK is definitely having a great season and he will get votes, but Leon could win all of the Rocket, Art Ross, Hart, and Lindsay this year. He probably won't, but that's the calibre of season he's having.

 

[Coffey]

They are neck and neck in points but Draisaitl has 18 more goals than mack, almost double. and as we saw with Matthews winning his Hart over Mcdavid, Goals matter

And as we saw in 2022, voters LOVE goals. (unless the points gap is too large)

 

[Toby91ca]

Well I think the biggest piece of this is that Kucherov is currently outpacing both of them in points.

So if Mack doesn’t have the highest points OR goals, it’s tough to make a case for him. But yes, “blowing out” is hyperbole and I agree with you on that.

Yeah, but I'm just speaking for today and today Mack is leading in points.....but as you note....I don't think matters a ton, either way, I'm guessing there will be a few that finish pretty close in points. I don't see anyone blowing anyone out of the water here.

 

[McFlyingV]

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

Because Mack is 3rd in points per game between the top 3 candidates with 15% of his points coming on empty net goals. He's getting lapped in goal scoring. He's getting outpaced in even strength production. He has much worse on ice results and underlying stats on the defensive side of things.

I'm just failing to see what exactly should sway a first place vote his way from voters. There's not a single category that stands out. He doesn't get worse line mates or dmen than the other candidates. There's just absolutely nothing to point to that says "wow MVP quality season" like there was last year.

For context it's no surprise why Mackinnon beat Kucherov out for MVP last year. More goal totals, better on ice results, top even strength producer, and less empty net points.

 

[x Tame Impala]

It's been Draisaitl for a few months now. No, McDavid as a teammate will not influence Hart voters. I think the nomineeds will be: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, and Hellebuyck with Draisaitl winning handedly.

 

[Regal]

I thought this was going to be about getting Rant to sign in Edmonton for 1 year at a low AAV to chase a cup.

I guess in Rant's case, he already has his cup, but it did make me wonder why we don't see more of this these days. Who was the last start to do this? Hossa??

I think it’s pretty hard to turn down a long term big money deal when there’s always the risk of getting injured. Plus a lot of UFAs already have families where stability is more important. Would be fun to see more movement though.

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

I think Drai is pretty comfortably 1st in the Hart convo among skaters. Hellebuyck should get some love too for the season he is having.

 

[Video Nasty]

Because Mack is 3rd in points per game between the top 3 candidates with 15% of his points coming on empty net goals. He's getting lapped in goal scoring. He's getting outpaced in even strength production. He has much worse on ice results and underlying stats on the defensive side of things.

I'm just failing to see what exactly should sway a first place vote his way from voters. There's not a single category that stands out. He doesn't get worse line mates or dmen than the other candidates. There's just absolutely nothing to point to that says "wow MVP quality season" like there was last year.

For context it's no surprise why Mackinnon beat Kucherov out for MVP last year. More goal totals, better on ice results, top even strength producer, and less empty net points.

MacKinnon is also competing against a version of himself that was better and it was only last season.

It's been Draisaitl for a few months now. No, McDavid as a teammate will not influence Hart voters. I think the nomineeds will be: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, and Hellebuyck with Draisaitl winning handedly.

Spot on.

 

[kugelbahn]

We will see tonight, looking forward to it:
"mano a (dos) mano"

 

[McFlyingV]

I think Drai is pretty comfortably 1st in the Hart convo among skaters. Hellebuyck should get some love too for the season he is having.

I keep seeing the Helle talk, but statistically I just don't see how it makes any sense, especially with how voters have voted in the past 25 years.

The last goalie to win the Hart was Carey Price in 2014-15 with a GSAE of 33.2 compared to the 2nd place goalie Dubnyk's 20.8, a difference of 12.4 (according to moneypuck).

This season Helle is at a GSAE of 28.6 compared to 2nd place Logan Thompson at 27.8, a difference of 0.8 (according to moneypuck).

Looking at some other sources like Naturalstattrick, Price had a GSAA of 36.71 compared to Dubnyk at 23.71 a difference of 13.0. Helle has a GSAA of 26.88 compared to Vasilevskiy at 18.04, a difference of 8.84.

Now something very interesting is the past 2 Hart winning goalies came in seasons where statistically there were no incredible performances by forwards and were actually kind of "lull" years

2014-15 Price win - Benn led the NHL with 87 points edging out Tavares at 86 and Crosby at 84. There was only one 50 goals scorer (Ovechkin) and two 40 goals scorers (Stamkos and Nash). This season was sandwiched between a 104 point season from Crosby in 2013-14 and a 106 point season by Kane in 2015-16.

2001-02 Theodore win - Iginla led the league with 96 points. This season was sandwiched between a 121 point season from Jagr in 2000-01 and a 106 point season by Forsberg (in 75GP) in 2002-03.

So really it seems goalies only tend to get consideration for this award when there is a perceived down year in offensive performances by the forwards.