Is Leon Draisaitl Gonna Break Nathan MacKinnon's Hart?

[Sharksfan66]

I thought this was going to be about getting Rant to sign in Edmonton for 1 year at a low AAV to chase a cup.

I guess in Rant's case, he already has his cup, but it did make me wonder why we don't see more of this these days. Who was the last start to do this? Hossa??

 

[Toby91ca]

Empty net points make this look way closer than it is. Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water this year in every statistical category. He's been the far better goal scorer, far better point producer against goalies, and significantly better defensive player.

Mack will be a finalist, but he doesn't deserve a single first place vote.

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

They are neck and neck in points but Draisaitl has 18 more goals than mack, almost double. and as we saw with Matthews winning his Hart over Mcdavid, Goals matter

 

[VinikToWinIt]

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

Well I think the biggest piece of this is that Kucherov is currently outpacing both of them in points.

So if Mack doesn’t have the highest points OR goals, it’s tough to make a case for him. But yes, “blowing out” is hyperbole and I agree with you on that.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

They are neck and neck in points but Draisaitl has 18 more goals than mack, almost double. and as we saw with Matthews winning his Hart over Mcdavid, Goals matter

Yeah, I agree this isn't a one horse race and MacK is definitely having a great season and he will get votes, but Leon could win all of the Rocket, Art Ross, Hart, and Lindsay this year. He probably won't, but that's the calibre of season he's having.

 

[Coffey]

They are neck and neck in points but Draisaitl has 18 more goals than mack, almost double. and as we saw with Matthews winning his Hart over Mcdavid, Goals matter

And as we saw in 2022, voters LOVE goals. (unless the points gap is too large)

 

[Toby91ca]

Well I think the biggest piece of this is that Kucherov is currently outpacing both of them in points.

So if Mack doesn’t have the highest points OR goals, it’s tough to make a case for him. But yes, “blowing out” is hyperbole and I agree with you on that.

Yeah, but I'm just speaking for today and today Mack is leading in points.....but as you note....I don't think matters a ton, either way, I'm guessing there will be a few that finish pretty close in points. I don't see anyone blowing anyone out of the water here.

 

[McFlyingV]

This is what I don't understand....why do people make comments like Draisaitl is blowing Mack out of the water or, it's not even close, or Mark doesn't deserve a single first place vote, etc.

I agree that Draisaitl is the current favourite, but the points leader is always going to get some consideration and should at least be close. Rightly or wrongly, people will still look at McDavid and that might drag a bit on people voting for Draisaitl. If you look at 2019/20, Draisaitl won the Hart in a pretty close vote with MacKinnon. That year, he won the scoring title by 13pts, ignoring McDavid, he won by 15pts. Currently, he's trailing in the scoring race. He may very well end up winning it, but I wouldn't suggest he's running away with things just yet.

Because Mack is 3rd in points per game between the top 3 candidates with 15% of his points coming on empty net goals. He's getting lapped in goal scoring. He's getting outpaced in even strength production. He has much worse on ice results and underlying stats on the defensive side of things.

I'm just failing to see what exactly should sway a first place vote his way from voters. There's not a single category that stands out. He doesn't get worse line mates or dmen than the other candidates. There's just absolutely nothing to point to that says "wow MVP quality season" like there was last year.

For context it's no surprise why Mackinnon beat Kucherov out for MVP last year. More goal totals, better on ice results, top even strength producer, and less empty net points.

 

[x Tame Impala]

It's been Draisaitl for a few months now. No, McDavid as a teammate will not influence Hart voters. I think the nomineeds will be: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, and Hellebuyck with Draisaitl winning handedly.

 

[Regal]

I thought this was going to be about getting Rant to sign in Edmonton for 1 year at a low AAV to chase a cup.

I guess in Rant's case, he already has his cup, but it did make me wonder why we don't see more of this these days. Who was the last start to do this? Hossa??

I think it’s pretty hard to turn down a long term big money deal when there’s always the risk of getting injured. Plus a lot of UFAs already have families where stability is more important. Would be fun to see more movement though.