Yea, I think he’s one of those guys where his longevity really makes him a clear HOFer imo based on the usual standards. I think his tier of player can go either way and if he had started to regress earlier then he’d be a lot more borderline, but a guy who was considered a clear #1 C for a decade plus with high level career stats is usually going to get in. I mean someone like Getzlaf will probably get in, and Backstrom might as well.
Is John Tavares starting to slip?
- Thread starter jcs0218
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Yea, I think he’s one of those guys where his longevity really makes him a clear HOFer imo based on the usual standards. I think his tier of player can go either way and if he had started to regress earlier then he’d be a lot more borderline, but a guy who was considered a clear #1 C for a decade plus with high level career stats is usually going to get in. I mean someone like Getzlaf will probably get in, and Backstrom might as well.
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Regular season champion doesn’t really mean anything. He won NYI one series against a terrible FLA team.
Golden_Jet
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Its easy enough to just look at era adjusted stats instead of using any guesswork.
Via hockeyref's era adjusted stats webpage:
Tavares currently sits 33rd all time for goals scored (just ahead of Frank Mahavolich)
Tavares currently sits 41st all time for points scored (just ahead of Bobby Hull)
leafsfan5
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I mean yes he hasn't had playoff success, but you said he hasn't had highs. Unless you solely identify highs as playoff success (which is silly), it's clear he has had them.
He played the prime years of his career in an incredibly low scoring environment - that is a fact.
It was so low that his 1.01 PPG from 12/13-15-16 ranked him 4th among all forwards with 200 games played - only Crosby, Kane and Malkin were ahead of him. It's understandable why one would look at his stats during those years and come away unimpressed, while in reality he was close to a top forward in the league
The reason he has stayed close to his prime production levels at this point in his career is because scoring has risen rapidly. For example, Sidney Crosby from last year isn't close to the Crosby from 14-15, despite their numbers being comparable (1.14 last year vs 1.09 in 14-15).
Golden_Jet
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Which was a little higher than DPE, like previously mentioned,
DPE had the clutching and grabbing allowed, from 97/98 -03/04 (then lockout).
Then we had the rule changes, plus 3 on 3 hockey.
If you prefer facts.
NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com
Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com
www.hockey-reference.com
BraveCanadian
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gritdash60
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He isn't starting to slip, what wasn't shown in the Leafs sheets picture is these bad boys!
leafsfan5
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That's fine, I'm not sure what it has to do with my point, though.Which was a little higher than DPE, like previously mentioned,
DPE had the clutching and grabbing allowed, from 97/98 -03/04 (then lockout).
Then we had the rule changes, plus 3 on 3 hockey.
If you prefer facts.
NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com
Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com
I didn't say JT played in the dead puck era itself, but he did play in an extremely low scoring era, the 2nd lowest scoring after the DPE
As a result of that his numbers appear less impressive than they are when you compare to his peers during that timeframe
The Hanging Jowl
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The really ironic thing about how this conversation has played out is people said a lot of the same things about Sundin. He had a playing style that made him look a little laid back and people mistook it for being lazy but nothing could have been further from the truth. The man was a warrior for the Leafs. So is Tavares though, just in a different way. Same production, different styles, same BS criticisms. It's just the way people are.
First off, irrelevant, but it is funny that you posted this.
He had a 17% CH... Tavares' is around 14%...
Not sure if you know, but the cap goes up.
He won that series pretty much single handedly though, lest we forget, he was an absolute monster
JackSlater
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There's definitely a parallel. Part of what people held against Sundin was that he was huge, played in the 90s and 2000s, but wasn't overly physical. Not that he shied away from contact but he wasn't generally the initiator like a Lindros would be. He just didn't fit their expectations. To a degree Tavares has it held against him that he was never as good as people expected back in 2006.
Sundin and Tavares both give you top ten level scoring, a guy who can carry some crappy linemates, and a hard worker who doesn't cause drama. Aged well as scorers and were consistent. There's a lot to like. Sundin brought more charisma, so he's you soup salesman if the need arises.
The Hanging Jowl
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Adjusted stats are just mathing things out to give a more accurate comparison of different eras. Are they perfect? No, but they are still a great way to show different players values over the eras whether you played in a more dead puck era or if you played fewer games in a season, etc.
The Shadow
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Your reply here has nothing to do with your original comment. You probably don’t watch him play
Golden_Jet
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Probably will be historically underrated due to the Leafs move and contract...first part of his career, peak athletic scoring seasons were in DPE II and second part of his career has been defined/dogged by his contract and the unfulfilled promises of the Leafs during his time there.
Unique, unique player with his slow-mo style and other-worldly anticipation in the offensive zone. Will rightfully be knocked for lack of physicality given his size and defensive acumen but although he came off his peak rather abruptly, he is entering IMO an extended spring to his career due to his ability on the PP and lack of need to be a burner to do what he does.
I suspect he will be useful to a ripe old age - he can win draws and provide points with a man advantage (though to his credit, he's been a better than usual ES scorer this year). That should give him a very good opportunity to add significantly to his career point totals. He should be around 1,110 or so by the end of this year. If he ages gracefully as I suspect (in terms of being a point compiler), he could have 4 more fairly significant scoring seasons left in the locker...there could be 200-250 more points there which puts him in pretty significant all-time scoring territory with 2 Hart finalist years early in his career.
I predict after this year when he gets on a "normalized" old guy contract, his rep will go up significantly and some teams...the Leafs, or whomever - will have a very useful and productive old guy on their hands, in the right situation...a late stage Benn/Pavelski type.
Unique, unique player with his slow-mo style and other-worldly anticipation in the offensive zone. Will rightfully be knocked for lack of physicality given his size and defensive acumen but although he came off his peak rather abruptly, he is entering IMO an extended spring to his career due to his ability on the PP and lack of need to be a burner to do what he does.
I suspect he will be useful to a ripe old age - he can win draws and provide points with a man advantage (though to his credit, he's been a better than usual ES scorer this year). That should give him a very good opportunity to add significantly to his career point totals. He should be around 1,110 or so by the end of this year. If he ages gracefully as I suspect (in terms of being a point compiler), he could have 4 more fairly significant scoring seasons left in the locker...there could be 200-250 more points there which puts him in pretty significant all-time scoring territory with 2 Hart finalist years early in his career.
I predict after this year when he gets on a "normalized" old guy contract, his rep will go up significantly and some teams...the Leafs, or whomever - will have a very useful and productive old guy on their hands, in the right situation...a late stage Benn/Pavelski type.
