Is Jeremy Swayman an elite goalie or is he a flash in the pan?
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He’s been a borderline very good/elite player so far, but the question remains to be seen if he can carry the load. He hasn’t played more than 44 games in a regular season. Can he physically and mentally handle the possibility of 20+ more regular season games plus playoffs? I believe he can but the unknown has me hesitant to label him elite just yet.
Fair but only two goalie in the entire NHL had more than 60 starts last year and you can argue both Saros and Georgiyev’s performance suffered greatly with the workload.
In 2024, 60 starts is the absolute max you’re gonna see goalies start aside from extreme circumstances. 55 starts puts you in the top 10. The Bruins obtained another backup who is used to a starter’s workload.
Swayman may see another 10 regular season games over the 44 he played last year, but I doubt any more than that. And there’s a big difference between increasing workload by 25% vs nearly 50%. If Swayman plays 64+ games next season, I’d argue that implies something has gone terribly wrong with the Bruins’ goalie strategy.
IWantSakicAsMyGM
Registered User
At least on paper, going from Ullmark as the other half of the G duo to Korpisalo looks like a pretty massive downgrade, so I think there's a decent chance for things to go terribly wrong with the Bruins' goalie strategy.
And Korpisalo at 1B is a double edged sword, because if he doesn't suck in Boston, I'll be forced to wonder how much of that is due primarily to Boston's defensive strategies, which would obviously also benefit Swayman. And that doesn't really help me figure out if Swayman is elite, or just a good goalie in a great situation.
Trade
Guentzel is ELITE
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Murray’s first 161 regular season starts: .921 sv%
Swayman’s first 132 regular season starts: .919 sv%
Each had great goalies ahead of them in a 1a/1b situation. Both tandems were split after
~3 seasons.
You saying they aren’t comparable?
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Elite implies consistently the best in the league. I'm sure he can be that for a few years but I wouldn't want to bet he can do it for 5-8 years. It's such a volatile position. Maybe the Bruins should give him a 3 year deal at a high AAV if possible. I'm not sure what their cap situation is. Very few goalies are worth a massive, 8 year, $9m+ AAV contract.
Vasilevksy in the COVID bubble is the single example AFAIK of a team winning with a goalie having one if its highest cap hits.
Vasilevksy in the COVID bubble is the single example AFAIK of a team winning with a goalie having one if its highest cap hits.
I mean Korpisalo won’t be “1B”, he will clearly be #2 but he’s started plenty in his career.
I figure the profile will probably look like this:
- Swayman: 50 starts
- Korpisalo: 25 starts
- Bussi: Remainder / spot / injury
I think there’s little to say Swayman can’t add 5-10 starts without major problems. He increased from 37 to 44 the year before with no drop-off. I’m not saying he’s guaranteed to be a Vezina level elite goalie next year, just that the idea that he has to increase his workload by 20+ regular season starts to prove he’s a top level starter is a bit extreme.
Korpisalo sucked last year but he’s also got plenty of very good stretches of play on multiple teams not named Boston (or Ottawa). If he performs well in Boston, you can probably assume a better team in front helps but also that a reduced workload where he doesn’t have to be the #1 goalie may also have an effect.
At some point if Swayman puts up another great year with a slightly increased workload - you have to rely on your eyes and his resume to say “yeah, he’s really good”…because we can play this “good players are good because they are on good teams” chicken and egg argument all day long.
BraveCanadian
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I think he’s quite good and has the benefit of a pretty solid defence in front of him.. gonna do fine again this year.
I think he is / will be elite, but it's not proven yet. If he has another 3-ish years like last year, he'll be proven to be elite.
I wouldn't say elite (yet) but the Leafs beat the Bruins in round 1 had it not been for Swayman.
Moose Head
Registered User
IWantSakicAsMyGM
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Calling him a 1B was admittedly generous, but my point still stands. Even as the #2, Korpisalo is still a question mark, and if things go badly for him, I'm struggling to see Boston giving him 25 games if he's putting up a sub .900 SV% with a double-digit negative GSAA like he did in 3 of the last 4 seasons. And Bussi has 0 NHL games, so he's also a question mark. Because of all of this, I can easily imagine a scenario where the Bruins' goaltending strategy goes horribly wrong this season, and Swayman is forced to play 60+ games.
And my eyes and Swayman's resume already say "yeah, he's really good", and I have no problem saying he's a top level starter going into next season. But the question is whether he's elite or a flash in the pan, and while I'm pretty sure he isn't a flash in the pan, I also don't know if he's necessarily "elite" yet. He potentially could be, but I want more information before I even try to figure it out.
No, it's perfectly possible that he is currently elite, even if he isn't elite 2 years from now.
Uncle Scrooge
Hockey Bettor
Part of being an elite goaltender is handling the big workload year in year out, and that's not really talent related. It's both physical and mental strength.
It's not his fault the Bruins have had a good tandem, and it's not his fault the Bruins have been a good at protecting the house, but yeah, medium workload behind a capable defensive team is not very uncomfortable.
So it's hard to say.. just have to wait and see.
It's not his fault the Bruins have had a good tandem, and it's not his fault the Bruins have been a good at protecting the house, but yeah, medium workload behind a capable defensive team is not very uncomfortable.
So it's hard to say.. just have to wait and see.
Anemia
aka lack of Iron Man
Gone are the days when a goalie goes Hasek and drags a sub par team into the playoffs is my view.
They make a difference. Just not on the scale of years past.
Has a goalie ever won the vezina and missed the playoffs? I was just thinking of this. When was the last time the quote "Best goalie" in the league was on a non playoff team?
I think we've kind of lost the ability to evaluate goalies apart from their teams to an extent.
They make a difference. Just not on the scale of years past.
Has a goalie ever won the vezina and missed the playoffs? I was just thinking of this. When was the last time the quote "Best goalie" in the league was on a non playoff team?
I think we've kind of lost the ability to evaluate goalies apart from their teams to an extent.
Fantomas
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Strangle
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True, but that’s after only playing every other game during the regular season.
Let’s see how he does playing 80 games including playiffs
Why is 60+20 some kind of standard in today’s NHL? Again, only two goalies played more than 60 regular season games last year, neither played anything close to 20 playoff games and the performance of both suffered greatly.
80 games starting is an outrageous ask and almost certainly a very poor way to handle a goalie’s workload in 2024.
