He’s been a borderline very good/elite player so far, but the question remains to be seen if he can carry the load. He hasn’t played more than 44 games in a regular season. Can he physically and mentally handle the possibility of 20+ more regular season games plus playoffs? I believe he can but the unknown has me hesitant to label him elite just yet.
Fair but only two goalie in the entire NHL had more than 60 starts last year and you can argue both Saros and Georgiyev’s performance suffered greatly with the workload.
In 2024, 60 starts is the absolute max you’re gonna see goalies start aside from extreme circumstances. 55 starts puts you in the top 10. The Bruins obtained another backup who is used to a starter’s workload.
Swayman may see another 10 regular season games over the 44 he played last year, but I doubt any more than that. And there’s a big difference between increasing workload by 25% vs nearly 50%. If Swayman plays 64+ games next season, I’d argue that implies something has gone terribly wrong with the Bruins’ goalie strategy.
Murray’s first 161 regular season starts: .921 sv%Pens fans hallucinating Matt Murray at every waking moment and feeling the need to share
At least on paper, going from Ullmark as the other half of the G duo to Korpisalo looks like a pretty massive downgrade, so I think there's a decent chance for things to go terribly wrong with the Bruins' goalie strategy.
And Korpisalo at 1B is a double edged sword, because if he doesn't suck in Boston, I'll be forced to wonder how much of that is due primarily to Boston's defensive strategies, which would obviously also benefit Swayman. And that doesn't really help me figure out if Swayman is elite, or just a good goalie in a great situation.
I mean Korpisalo won’t be “1B”, he will clearly be #2 but he’s started plenty in his career.
I figure the profile will probably look like this:
- Swayman: 50 starts
- Korpisalo: 25 starts
- Bussi: Remainder / spot / injury
I think there’s little to say Swayman can’t add 5-10 starts without major problems. He increased from 37 to 44 the year before with no drop-off. I’m not saying he’s guaranteed to be a Vezina level elite goalie next year, just that the idea that he has to increase his workload by 20+ regular season starts to prove he’s a top level starter is a bit extreme.
Korpisalo sucked last year but he’s also got plenty of very good stretches of play on multiple teams not named Boston (or Ottawa). If he performs well in Boston, you can probably assume a better team in front helps but also that a reduced workload where he doesn’t have to be the #1 goalie may also have an effect.
At some point if Swayman puts up another great year with a slightly increased workload - you have to rely on your eyes and his resume to say “yeah, he’s really good”…because we can play this “good players are good because they are on good teams” chicken and egg argument all day long.
No, it's perfectly possible that he is currently elite, even if he isn't elite 2 years from now.I think he is / will be elite, but it's not proven yet. If he has another 3-ish years like last year, he'll be proven to be elite.
Swayman is tiers better than Binnington's absolute best.reminds me of Binnington, time will tell
Murray’s first 161 regular season starts: .921 sv%
Swayman’s first 132 regular season starts: .919 sv%
Each had great goalies ahead of them in a 1a/1b situation. Both tandems were split after
~3 seasons.
You saying they aren’t comparable?
to be fair when you include playoffs he did play 56 games this season which is a solid workload.
True, but that’s after only playing every other game during the regular season.
Let’s see how he does playing 80 games including playiffs