Is it time for a rebuild ?

[TheOrganist]

"We all have a different definition of what a retool, rebuild or re-whatever means, but it really just means you're taking a step back," Armstrong said. "To me, taking a step back to take two forward, I have a vision for how that would look. But taking eight steps back and trying to pick in the top five for the better part of five or six years, those things sound great in July but they're not a lot of fun in January. And if you do that year in and year out, it takes a special market to be able to sustain a revenue and keep fans wanting to come out and see that team. Look at teams that have done it -- their attendance has dropped significantly. When they come back, they'll probably have great attendance again, but it's still a business at the end of the day and we still have to put a product on the ice that can sell tickets."

How lessons from 2019 have impacted the Blues' strategy this season

The Blues got off to a rough start to the season. But general manager Doug Armstrong has seen enough to know that patience, and not panic, was the right approach for his team.

www.espn.com

 

[PocketNines]

"We all have a different definition of what a retool, rebuild or re-whatever means, but it really just means you're taking a step back," Armstrong said. "To me, taking a step back to take two forward, I have a vision for how that would look. But taking eight steps back and trying to pick in the top five for the better part of five or six years, those things sound great in July but they're not a lot of fun in January. And if you do that year in and year out, it takes a special market to be able to sustain a revenue and keep fans wanting to come out and see that team. Look at teams that have done it -- their attendance has dropped significantly. When they come back, they'll probably have great attendance again, but it's still a business at the end of the day and we still have to put a product on the ice that can sell tickets."

How lessons from 2019 have impacted the Blues' strategy this season

The Blues got off to a rough start to the season. But general manager Doug Armstrong has seen enough to know that patience, and not panic, was the right approach for his team.

www.espn.com

Thanks for the post. Emily Kaplan interview of Armstrong. She is excellent. This interview sounds like an extension of the interview Armstrong gave when they were 3-4-0.

Here is another blurb. Essentially the Blues will be as good as Thomas and Kyrou are because he sees those two guys as PPG guys who were drafted without top picks.

Armstrong is proud of the team he built and wants to see his vision through. And there's one specific reason why he thinks the Blues can stave off a rebuild: drafting Jordan Kyrou in the second round (2016) and Robert Thomas at No. 20 of the first round (2017).

"Those are both point-per-game players. If you redrafted those guys, they're probably both in the top 10," Armstrong said. "So in my mind, we went through a rebuild without having to do it because our amateur scouting staff did a good job of getting us competitive players. If we had picked normal players that go in that area, instead of point-per-game players, you've got players that you're trying to get into the league."

Kyrou is 24. Thomas is 23. They are both signed to extensions with a $8.125 million cap hit that kicks in next season.

"Because we have these building blocks moving forward, we can keep our veterans together and push with the top teams," Armstrong said. "So I don't think a rebuild for us is going to look like it has for other teams. If you look just at those two players, they're too good to let us go to last place consistently."

 

[Stealth JD]

I'd bet at least one if not both of 90/91 are moved; I sense Army would have already signed either if he were going to. That's not going scorched-Earth 'rebuild', but it's a huge turnover in leadership and potentially a culture change. That can be good for teams, especially ones who are merely treading water.

But until the defense is reinforced this team will remain middle of the pack; barring a return of incredible special teams.

 

[Thallis]

Great interview, hate the content. Armstrong is going to end up fired after wasting 5-6 years trying to make this work. Cool cool cool cool

 

[stl76]

"We all have a different definition of what a retool, rebuild or re-whatever means, but it really just means you're taking a step back," Armstrong said. "To me, taking a step back to take two forward, I have a vision for how that would look. But taking eight steps back and trying to pick in the top five for the better part of five or six years, those things sound great in July but they're not a lot of fun in January. And if you do that year in and year out, it takes a special market to be able to sustain a revenue and keep fans wanting to come out and see that team. Look at teams that have done it -- their attendance has dropped significantly. When they come back, they'll probably have great attendance again, but it's still a business at the end of the day and we still have to put a product on the ice that can sell tickets."

How lessons from 2019 have impacted the Blues' strategy this season

The Blues got off to a rough start to the season. But general manager Doug Armstrong has seen enough to know that patience, and not panic, was the right approach for his team.

www.espn.com

Great interview, thanks for posting. Reading the full thing makes me more thankful than ever that we have a steady hand like Doug Armstrong at GM. He’s not perfect, but he is smart, experienced, and pretty damn good at when he does.

Some interesting points I took from the article:
1. It’s too early for a drastic move, need to be patient and see how the team develops
2. Even if we wanted to make a drastic move, the trademarket is fairly static at the moment
3. ROR is a good player but needs to be better
4. Tanking sucks and is a tough sell in a market like St. Louis
5. Drafting PPG players like Kyrou and Thomas is similar to a rebuild in that we basically get production from guys normally expected to only be drafted with top ten picks
6. Kyrou and Thomas are too good of players to allow for a real tank involving multiple years of top 5-10 picks
7. It’s an odd landscape leaguewide where a lot teams that have been good recently are declining and teams that have been rebuilding recently are starting to emerge…and they are all sort of meeting in the middle
8. Berube is a good coach and is not going anywhere, but needs to be better

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Great interview, hate the content. Armstrong is going to end up fired after wasting 5-6 years trying to make this work. Cool cool cool cool

Armstrong is fine. He is going nowhere and neither is Chief, with qualifiers, of course.

If DA does not trade ROR and Tarasenko by the TDL, then I could see ownership starting to consider parting ways.

But his current contract extends him through the 2025-26 season, so I doubt he is let go, even if he fails to trade ROR and Vladi.

It's all about how much rope ownership is willing to give him and identifying the moments when things start to sour.

I am willing to bet that not trading ROR and Vladi by the TDL will be one of those souring moments.

--

To the post above.....point #4 is what is most salient, for me.

 

[PocketNines]

Great interview, thanks for posting. Reading the full thing makes me more thankful than ever that we have a steady hand like Doug Armstrong at GM. He’s not perfect, but he is smart, experienced, and pretty damn good at when he does.

Some interesting points I took from the article:
1. It’s too early for a drastic move, need to be patient and see how the team develops
2. Even if we wanted to make a drastic move, the trademarket is fairly static at the moment
3. ROR is a good player but needs to be better
4. Tanking sucks and is a tough sell in a market like St. Louis
5. Drafting PPG players like Kyrou and Thomas is similar to a rebuild in that we basically get production from guys normally expected to only be drafted with top ten picks
6. Kyrou and Thomas are too good of players to allow for a real tank involving multiple years of top 5-10 picks
7. It’s an odd landscape leaguewide where a lot teams that have been good recently are declining and teams that have been rebuilding recently are starting to emerge…and they are all sort of meeting in the middle
8. Berube is a good coach and is not going anywhere, but needs to be better

Two years ago he didn't understand he was putting himself in this calmly explained no-fix position and that is very unimpressive. He was in the media explaining how Parayko was now a real #1 defenseman.

 

[Thallis]

Armstrong is fine. He is going nowhere and neither is Chief, with qualifiers, of course.

If DA does not trade ROR and Tarasenko by the TDL, then I could see ownership starting to consider parting ways.

But his current contract extends him through the 2025-26 season, so I doubt he is let go, even if he fails to trade ROR and Vladi.

It's all about how much rope ownership is willing to give him and identifying the moments when things start to sour.

I am willing to bet that not trading ROR and Vladi by the TDL will be one of those souring moments.

--

To the post above.....point #4 is what is most salient, for me.

Armstrong is fine right now. Armstrong will not be fine after 5-6 years of mediocrity and trying to make this work. You can't continuously retool with the talent level and age curve we have. This interview seems like coping at every level trying to grasp whatever hope he can to believe the team is good, and they're all fairly weak excuses. Giving the benefit of the doubt, it does sound like ownership is very much not on board with a rebuild, but it's his job to convince them it's necessary.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Armstrong is fine right now. Armstrong will not be fine after 5-6 years of mediocrity and trying to make this work. You can't continuously retool with the talent level and age curve we have. This interview seems like coping at every level trying to grasp whatever hope he can to believe the team is good, and they're all fairly weak excuses. Giving the benefit of the doubt, it does sound like ownership is very much not on board with a rebuild, but it's his job to convince them it's necessary.

This is where I disagree, but not with you, in particular.

DA characterized the results (PPG players) of drafting JK and RT as a sort of re-whatever. We fans have characterized moving Stastny and Shattenkirk as another type of re-whatever.

Definitions are hazy, but I think DA understands the position in which he finds himself.

Maybe this is just a matter of semantics, but we are not the only team continuously retooling.

I prefer the term reshaping. But even that seems like smoke and mirrors.

I think we are all hung up on definitions, including DA.

Moving ROR and Tarasenko is imperative. After that, who knows?

 

[Thallis]

This is where I disagree, but not with you, in particular.

DA characterized the results (PPG players) of drafting JK and RT as a sort of re-whatever. We fans have characterized moving Stastny and Shattenkirk as another type of re-whatever.

Definitions are hazy, but I think DA understands the position in which he finds himself.

Maybe this is just a matter of semantics, but we are not the only team continuously retooling.

I prefer the term reshaping. But even that seems like smoke and mirrors.

I think we are all hung up on definitions, including DA.

Moving ROR and Tarasenko is imperative. After that, who knows?

I think Doug is overestimating the impact of PPG players. The scoring bump we saw last year doesn't look to be stopping & young players are getting better. What's a PPG player now is comparable to a 60 point player a decade ago. They're very good, no doubt, but not good enough to carry your team and make you a contender. We still have glaring holes all over the roster and aging, not good enough players on expensive long term contracts. There's only so many rabbits you can pull out of your hat for Buchnevich esque deals to keep you afloat. We need a stud defender and it's hard as hell to get those without top draft picks, and then you run into the problem where the rest of your core doesn't fit your new one when you've found one and allowed him to become the player you need.

 

[Mike Liut]

If you can’t re-sign Barbs by the TDL, then you have to move him. I think you could easily get a 2nd for him.

Getting 1sts for ROR and Tarasenko and a 2nd for Barbs would go a long way to re-tooling by adding those players to Thomas, Kyrou, Snuggs, Bolduc and Neighbours.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

If you can’t re-sign Barbs by the TDL, then you have to move him. I think you could easily get a 2nd for him.

Getting 1sts for ROR and Tarasenko and a 2nd for Barbs would go a long way to re-tooling by adding those players to Thomas, Kyrou, Snuggs, Bolduc and Neighbours.

I’m not that excited with a late 2nd, nor likely is DA. Much prefer to try to sign Barbie if that is anticipated return.

 

[MissouriMook]

I’m not that excited with a late 2nd, nor likely is DA. Much prefer to try to sign Barbie if that is anticipated return.

If you're truly rebuilding, he's a great option for a 3C (behind Thomas/Schenn) or 2LW that likely won't cost a lot and will allow you to have extra money to spend on free agents once you've maximized your draft capital by embracing the suckage for a couple of years.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’m not that excited with a late 2nd, nor likely is DA. Much prefer to try to sign Barbie if that is anticipated return.

Me either, that’s why I said if you can’t re-sign him. He may look to get paid. I’d rather get a 2nd instead of nothing

 

[Mike Liut]

I think these are the only teams that are guaranteed to finish worse than the Blues

Ottawa
Anaheim
SJ
Chicago
Arizona

 

[Stealth JD]

vs Carolina
@Pitts
@ NYR
@ NYI
vs WPG
Vs COL

If the club, banged up and flawed as they are, turns this single loss to Dallas into another 7-game losing streak, I don’t know how many people would be genuinely surprised…and I don’t know that that would be something Army could sit back and allow to course-correct. That’s a tough stretch of games beginning tonight. Those hoping for a rebuild could be about two weeks from being back on Bedard-watch.

 

[Mike Liut]

vs Carolina
@Pitts
@ NYR
@ NYI
vs WPG
Vs COL

If the club, banged up and flawed as they are, turns this single loss to Dallas into another 7-game losing streak, I don’t know how many people would be genuinely surprised…and I don’t know that that would be something Army could sit back and allow to course-correct. That’s a tough stretch of games beginning tonight. Those hoping for a rebuild could be about two weeks from being back on Bedard-watch.

That’s a tough stretch.

JD- I see you live in Bonita Springs. I have a winter place in north Naples. Real close to you.

 

[TruBlu]

That interview makes me feel better about DA's position moving forward. His comment about not having to go full rebuild speaks volumes. He obviously sees Thomas and Kyrou as the core going forward. Losing ROR and Tank at the trade deadline would not be a full rebuild situation. We'd free up cap, get picks/prospects, and have some room to make moves in the offseason. That will obviously make next season a question mark in what we'll have, but there will still be some vets here to hold the locker room. Like it or not it's transition time. We have no prospects of note and we are in the top 5 of oldest teams in the league in regards to player age.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

That interview makes me feel better about DA's position moving forward. His comment about not having to go full rebuild speaks volumes. He obviously sees Thomas and Kyrou as the core going forward. Losing ROR and Tank at the trade deadline would not be a full rebuild situation. We'd free up cap, get picks/prospects, and have some room to make moves in the offseason. That will obviously make next season a question mark in what we'll have, but there will still be some vets here to hold the locker room. Like it or not it's transition time. We have no prospects of note and we are in the top 5 of oldest teams in the league in regards to player age.

He doesn't want to do a full rebuild, not because JK and RT are the forward core going forward, but because the STL market is not strong enough to withstand the economic downturn. In other words, Stillman et al., will lose a shit ton of money and that cannot happen.

 

[bleedblue1223]

That interview is why I don't think we'll see all of Tarasenko, O'Reilly, and Barbashev traded, unless there is a plan in place to reasonably replace them. It total, that is gutting a middle 6 line, even those they are all on different lines. I don't see Parayko or Faulk being traded, don't really see Leddy being traded either, and don't see anyone trading for Krug. Our defense, more or less, is what it is.

Forward wise, Army has to figure out the line structure for next season.

1st offensive line: Buchnevich-Thomas-Kyrou
2nd offensive line: X-Schenn-X
Shutdown line: Saad-X-X

If O'Reilly takes a pay cut, you have 2/3 of that shutdown line, but getting that Schenn line figured out will be a big thing too. And you could argue that we'd be better off with a better scorer than Barbashev for that spot. And then the uncertainty with the readiness of Neighbours, Bolduc, and even Snuggerud makes it a bit more complicated. In theory we have a 2-way/grindy winger in Neighbours, and the offensive guys in Bolduc and Snuggerud, but it's also tough to fit young guys into important roles when you are trying to win. If they don't immediately produce, you can be in trouble.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’d they let ROR, Tarasenko and Barbs walk and get nothing, we are going to suck for a long time.

 

[TheDizee]

I’d they let ROR, Tarasenko and Barbs walk and get nothing, we are going to suck for a long time.

if the team was a contender, then i say let it play out like they did with captain creampuff.

but this teams not a contender and not a piece of two away (unless they trade for Chris Pronger in his prime) so I say get what you can and make moves at the draft/free agency. the west is so shitty that the playoffs could even happen if they decide to sell anyways.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I’d they let ROR, Tarasenko and Barbs walk and get nothing, we are going to suck for a long time.

Depends on the replacement. It's not like we'll have a ton of cap because of the Thomas/Kyrou deals, but we'll have enough cap where we really can't project how good or bad we'll be, since we'll be missing some key replacement pieces.

 

[TruBlu]

That interview is why I don't think we'll see all of Tarasenko, O'Reilly, and Barbashev traded, unless there is a plan in place to reasonably replace them. It total, that is gutting a middle 6 line, even those they are all on different lines. I don't see Parayko or Faulk being traded, don't really see Leddy being traded either, and don't see anyone trading for Krug. Our defense, more or less, is what it is.

Forward wise, Army has to figure out the line structure for next season.

1st offensive line: Buchnevich-Thomas-Kyrou
2nd offensive line: X-Schenn-X
Shutdown line: Saad-X-X

If O'Reilly takes a pay cut, you have 2/3 of that shutdown line, but getting that Schenn line figured out will be a big thing too. And you could argue that we'd be better off with a better scorer than Barbashev for that spot. And then the uncertainty with the readiness of Neighbours, Bolduc, and even Snuggerud makes it a bit more complicated. In theory we have a 2-way/grindy winger in Neighbours, and the offensive guys in Bolduc and Snuggerud, but it's also tough to fit young guys into important roles when you are trying to win. If they don't immediately produce, you can be in trouble.

Those guys control their own destiny. Whether we trade them or not they may not be here next season. If they are wanting to move on, and we aren't a contender at the deadline, then the only decision to be made is to get something of value for them. DA isn't going to put that out there. He's going to act like we're making a push, but if someone kicks the tires he'll listen, and if we get close to the deadline and we're out he'll start making calls.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Those guys control their own destiny. Whether we trade them or not they may not be here next season. If they are wanting to move on, and we aren't a contender at the deadline, then the only decision to be made is to get something of value for them. DA isn't going to put that out there. He's going to act like we're making a push, but if someone kicks the tires he'll listen, and if we get close to the deadline and we're out he'll start making calls.

Sure, but I imagine Army is going to try hard to retain at least one of them, that's my point.