Here are some stats from a post I made just before the finals:
Oilers defensman expected goal differential (playoffs):
Ceci: -9.1
Desharnais: -5.1
Kulak: -3.5
Nurse: -3.4
Broberg: -.8
Ekholm: 2.7
Bouchard: 25.4!
Edmonton is a plus 15 goal differential, so for most of their defenseman to be negative is impressive.
In terms of forwards:
Hyman: 22.2
Mcdavid:22.1
Draisaitl: 19.8
Nuge: 8.8
Perry: 3.4
Kane: 1
They have no other forwards that are positive in this stat. In fact, their bottom 8 forwards all have sub 50% expected goals percentage.
Oilers bottom six points in playoffs:
Brown: 4 points 12 gp
Janmark: 4 in 18 gp
Henrique: 4 in 10
Foegle: 3 in 15
Perry: 1 in 13
Ryan: 1 in 14
McLeod: 1 in 17
Carrick: 1 in 9
Holloway has been playing with Drai and he only has 4 pts in 18 games!
That’s a combined 23 pts in 126 games!!!
That’s a 15 point pace over 82 gp.
8 of Edmonton’s forwards combined production is equal to one 4th liner’s production.
Prime Crosby does not take that team to the finals.
Something that a lot of teams have struggled to do in the postseason to have success with superstar players, has been to spread the talent around the lineup. We’ve seen Edmonton stack up their first 2 lines to help Drai and McDavid as much as possible to score while filling up the 3rd and 4th line with the dust remaining. We’ve seen the same strategy deployed by Washington for most of Ovechkin’s tenure, which was to stack up his line (with Backstrom) and let the other lines drown to make sure the stars had help to perform.
It has been the opposite in Pittsburgh since basically the start of Crosby’s and Malkin’s career; where they spread the talent throughout the lineup, which helped them tremendously in the playoffs. It’s a big reason why they won 3 cups while the Caps and Oilers have a combined one during the Crosby era. In fact, Pittsburgh has won the cup as many times from 2005 to 2024 as Edmonton and Washington reached the conference finals (combined) with McDavid/Ovechkin on the team.
In 2009, their 3 best forwards were arguably Crosby, Malkin and Staal. They all played on separate lines to make sure the scoring could be as evenly distributed as possible. So if you look up at the overall help Crosby had in 2009 after 3 rounds vs the help McDavid had, it goes like this:
Pittsburgh
Malkin: 28 pts in 17 games
Guerin: 14 pts in 17 games
Gonchar: 12 pts in 15 games
Kunitz: 12 pts in 17 games
Fedotenko: 11 pts in 17 games
Letang: 9 pts in 16 games
Talbot: 7 pts in 17 games
Cooke: 7 pts in 17 games
Kennedy: 6 pts in 17 games
Eaton: 6 pts in 17 games
Staal: 6 pts in 17 games
Satan: 6 pts in 11 games
Adams: 5 pts in 17 games
Boucher: 4 pts in 8 games
Orpik: 4 pts in 17 games
Scuderi: 3 pts in 17 games
Gill: 2 pts in 17 games
Goligoski: 1 pt in 2 games
Sykora: 1 pt in 6 games
Dupuis: 0 pts in 17 games
That gives you a grand total of 144 pts in 306 games (0,47 PPG)
Edmonton
Draisaitl: 28 pts in 18 games
Bouchard: 27 pts in 18 games
RNH: 20 pts in 18 games
Hyman: 18 pts in 18 games
Kane: 8 pts in 18 games
Ekholm: 7 pts in 18 games
Kulak: 5 pts in 18 games
Holloway: 4 pts in 18 games
Janmark: 4 pts in 18 games
Ceci: 4 pts in 18 games
Henrique: 4 pts in 10 games
Brown: 4 pts in 12 games
Foegele: 3 pts in 10 games
Nurse: 3 pts in 18 games
Broberg: 1 pt in 3 games
McLeod: 1 pt in 17 games
Desharnais: 1 pt in 13 games
Ryan: 1 pt in 4 games
Carrick: 1 pt in 9 games
Perry: 1 pt in 13 games
That gives you a grand total of 145 pts in 324 games (0,45)
So in the end, when you also consider that McDavid played on average a bit more than 1 min per game more than Crosby, which gave his scoring support around 18 mins less of TOI to produce, their offensive support was fairly similar through the first 3 rounds. Crosby DID, in fact, take a team who provided similar offensive production than the 2024 Oilers to the finals, in 2009. Crosby might’ve had a bit more secondary help, but McDavid had more primary help.