Is Bedard more McDavid or Drai/Matthews/Mackinnon level talent?

[daver]

Stop. you are just embarrassing yourself at this point. The consensus is unanimous that McDavid is better than Kane. Only Kane fanboys would argue otherwise.

I think you are embarrassing yourself with an obvious strawman. Please quote where I said anything remotely close to Kane being better than McDavid.

Kind of a small sample size to use the "comparables" arguement. Especially when only one of those players is a modern player, and all of them played in different leagues than Bedard did. But use those guys as your guarantee if you want. Knock yourself out. The sane ones in the group will still wait until he plays an NHL game before annointing him a generational talent.

It's not even a sample of anything, it is the whole group of consensus "Generational" prospects that played in the CHL in the last 50 years.

 

[Jets4Life]

I think you are embarrassing yourself with an obvious strawman. Please quote where I said anything remotely close to Kane being better than McDavid.

You certainly implied that McDavid and Kane were virtually equals, which is far from true. Others noticed this and commented on it.

 

[elitepete]

The notion that Matthews is on Draisaitl and Mackinnon’s level is a hilarious one.

 

[Jets4Life]

Kane then becomes a pretty poor example.

McDavid at 26 has five Art Rosses and two runner ups. Kane at 26 after eight seasons had 5th and 9th scoring place, had never scored 90 points in a season and didn't have a single top-5 Hart finish. Patrick Kane had a spike year when he won the Hart/Ross at 27. This is completely incomparable to generational talent that takes the league over as a teenager and never misses a beat.

Well said.

By the McDavid is Kane's age, he could conceivably have 6 or more Hart Trophies, and 8+ Art Ross Trophies. That would pretty much make him second to Gretzky in terms of NHL hardware. Patrick Kane is a great player, and arguably one of the top 5 of the past 20 years, but he is not even close to being at a McDavid level.

 

[Happyhary9]

You keep forgetting Lafontaine and Kane. Their draft years in the CHL were comparable to Bedard's.

I'd probably rank the best CHL draft years as follows:

Lemieux
Crosby
Lafontaine
Bedard
McDavid
Kane
Lindros

That's some great company for Bedard. Of that group, I think he's most similar to Kane and Lafontaine in terms of style, and would expect him to have a comparable peak relative to his peers.

I get what your saying with a guy like Lafontaine, but honestly when really comparing stats and predictions I like to stay in this century. The CHL in the 80s really is nothing like today. The predictably based off CHL production to NHL production was a lot less accurate in the 80 compared to it is today.

And in this century only 2 players compare from a statistical stand point to Bedard, and that is Crosby/McDavid.

I love Kane and he was close, as he fell just short of the .5 mark of ppg over peers at .45. But he also played on a team that literally played O only, D was optional. The line he played on had the 1st, 3rd and 5th leading scorers in the OHL.

I am not saying Bedard is/will be a better NHL player then McDavid/Crosby, but from a pure statistical stand point he had the most dominant 17yo/draft year of them all. He scored at a.79 ppg pace over the next top 3 scorers in his league, which was higher then both Crosby and McDavid. Then the fact that Bedard absolutely just carried his team. McDavid had 2 100 point scores playing with him and Crosby had 3 100+ guys with him. While Bedard's highest teammate had 86 points, which was 57 points behind him. Then you throw in the WJC-20 performance and it is got to be the most dominant 17yo/draft season this century.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

He’s more a Gretzky type. Doesn’t have the speed or power of McDavid. I don’t think he puts up Gretzky or a McDavid numbers, but that’s the way he plays the gamex

But I honestly think his hockey IQ is the best since 99. He breaks you down with his mind.

As for modern players he is most like Kucherov.

 

[TLEH]

You keep forgetting Lafontaine and Kane. Their draft years in the CHL were comparable to Bedard's.

I'd probably rank the best CHL draft years as follows:

Lemieux
Crosby
Lafontaine
Bedard
McDavid
Kane
Lindros

That's some great company for Bedard. Of that group, I think he's most similar to Kane and Lafontaine in terms of style, and would expect him to have a comparable peak relative to his peers.

This is a very good ranking. In terms of style I think he leans Lafontaine more than Kane. Kane was/is charmin his whole career. Bedard has that LaFontaine grit and mindset. Certainly has era on his side as well, in regards to staying healthy.

 

[Toby91ca]

I love Kane and he was close, as he fell just short of the .5 mark of ppg over peers at .45. But he also played on a team that literally played O only, D was optional. The line he played on had the 1st, 3rd and 5th leading scorers in the OHL.

Where is the 0.45 stat for Kane coming from, I don't get it.

 

[Jets4Life]

I love Kane and he was close, as he fell just short of the .5 mark of ppg over peers at .45. But he also played on a team that literally played O only, D was optional. The line he played on had the 1st, 3rd and 5th leading scorers in the OHL.

Not only that, but Kane's numbers were only slightly higher than teammate Sergei Kostitsyn (145 vs 131). Even Sam Gagner had 118 points with the London Knights. If we look at Bedard's numbers, they were incredible, if only because he had literally no help from teammates. The closest number that another Pats player put up, was 86 points, compared to an amazing 143 by Bedard, in less games.

Bedard was a one man wrecking crew for Regina.

 

[Warden of the North]

No one is McDavid until they prove it.

Without the speed and the ability to actually do stuff at that speed, no one will match McDavid. It's just too much.

 

[Happyhary9]

Where is the 0.45 stat for Kane coming from, I don't get it.

It is the difference of Kanes PPG vs the the next top 3 scorers that year in the same league. Kane averaged 2.5 ppg. The top 3 scores in the OHL (outside of Kane) averaged 2.05 ppg. So Kane scored scored at a +.45 ppg over his peers. Obviously you could do larger sample sizes like top 5 or top 10 and get a little more accurate, but I just don’t want to do all the math. Basically it is just a quick number to give you a feel for how much a player outscored the other top players in the same league in the same year.

Here is the 6 players that have lead a CHL league in scoring since 2000 and on in their draft year. And how much they scored over the next 3 by average.
Bedard +.79 ppg
McDaniel +.71 ppg
Crosby +.55 ppg
Kane +.45 ppg
Laf +.26 ppg
Tavares +.20 ppg

 

[Toby91ca]

It is the difference of Kanes PPG vs the the next top 3 scorers that year in the same league. Kane averaged 2.5 ppg. The top 3 scores in the OHL (outside of Kane) averaged 2.05 ppg. So Kane scored scored at a +.45 ppg over his peers.

Agree Kane was at 2.5, but he had 2 teammates at 2.23 and 2.22....

 

[surixon]

Looking back....Daigle also got more hype than he really should have. He put up huge numbers, but we aren't talking Crosby dominance or Bedard dominance. He didn't even lead the league in scoring, he had 137pts and the leader had 148pts. He was younger and played less games, so he stats were still very good, just nowhere near the dominance we've seen from some others.

Yeah it's interesting he got so much hype that year. In that same year Kariya obliterated the NCAA to the tune of 100 points. It's still the record for most points by a freshman.

I also peg Kariya as a better comp for Bedard then Daigle. Tremendous work ethic to go with an extremely well rounded shooting arsenal and offensive tool kit. Bedard shoots better but isn't as dynamic as a skater. But I'd say they are pretty comparable outside of that.

 

[Happyhary9]

Agree Kane was at 2.5, but he had 2 teammates at 2.23 and 2.22....

Sounds right. I just did a quick and easy equation. Basically just took the top 3 total points guys added the points and divided by total games.

I didn’t sort out by ppg. As I said Kanes line was 1st,3rd and 5th in total points. But if you go by ppg they actually may have been 1,2 and 3. That London team scorer a crap load under Hunter's offensive scheme, they just didn't play any defense.

 

[surixon]

It's not just McDavid's skating that makes him special though. He thinks the game better than everybody, it's what he can do with the puck along with warp speed that makes him unique and now he has added elite goal scorer to the list by improving his shot tenfold.

McDavid isn't the physical force that Lemeiux was but he's every bit as talented, he just does his generational things in a different way. McDavid in the 80s with how wide open the play was and how poor the goalies were might have put up 250 points in a season, I truly believe that. It's like Gretzky's vision with Bure's speed.

I wouldn't say McDavid thinks the game better then everyone. I'd easily put him behind Crosby and Kucherov in that category. Not saying he doesn't have very good hockey sense because he does.

 

[daver]

I am not saying Bedard is/will be a better NHL player then McDavid/Crosby, but from a pure statistical stand point he had the most dominant 17yo/draft year of them all. He scored at a.79 ppg pace over the next top 3 scorers in his league, which was higher then both Crosby and McDavid. Then the fact that Bedard absolutely just carried his team. McDavid had 2 100 point scores playing with him and Crosby had 3 100+ guys with him. While Bedard's highest teammate had 86 points, which was 57 points behind him. Then you throw in the WJC-20 performance and it is got to be the most dominant 17yo/draft season this century.

Two of the next three top scorers in Crosby's draft year were his linemates.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I get what your saying with a guy like Lafontaine, but honestly when really comparing stats and predictions I like to stay in this century. The CHL in the 80s really is nothing like today. The predictably based off CHL production to NHL production was a lot less accurate in the 80 compared to it is today.

I think relative performance vs peers still applies. I think the fact that Lafontaine lapped even Lemieux despite being only a 8 months older is pretty remarkable.

And in this century only 2 players compare from a statistical stand point to Bedard, and that is Crosby/McDavid.

I love Kane and he was close, as he fell just short of the .5 mark of ppg over peers at .45. But he also played on a team that literally played O only, D was optional. The line he played on had the 1st, 3rd and 5th leading scorers in the OHL.

I have him slightly ahead of Kane, but I still think they are pretty comparable. The OHL that season was stacked, so his performance vs his peers is pretty impressive.

Bedard also fell short of the .5 mark of ppg over his peers at .49 (Stankoven had 2.02 ppg).

I am not saying Bedard is/will be a better NHL player then McDavid/Crosby, but from a pure statistical stand point he had the most dominant 17yo/draft year of them all. He scored at a.79 ppg pace over the next top 3 scorers in his league, which was higher then both Crosby and McDavid. Then the fact that Bedard absolutely just carried his team. McDavid had 2 100 point scores playing with him and Crosby had 3 100+ guys with him. While Bedard's highest teammate had 86 points, which was 57 points behind him. Then you throw in the WJC-20 performance and it is got to be the most dominant 17yo/draft season this century.

It's not surprising that a goal scorer like Bedard would score a lot more points relative to his teammates when compared to pass first guys like Crosby and Kane. Those guys were much better at facilitating, while Bedard was very much a shoot first guy, and as a playmaker he tended to look more to directly set up shooting opportunities for teammates.

Like, if you watch Bedard and Sid, you'll notice how often 87 uses his point men vs Bedard, who sees that play as a last resort and will prefer to hold onto the puck to either find a shot for himself or a cross ice pass to a teammate. There's nothing wrong with either, but the former tends to get more guys involved in the offense.

Note - this is not at all a knock on Bedard, its more of a stylistic thing that would drive more separation between his point totals and his teammates.

Like, I don't think Suzdalev and Howe (these weren't his only linemates) are any worse junior hockey players than Kostitsyn and Gagner were, but Kane really elevated them:

Gagner in 2005-06
56gp 11g 46p (USHL)

Gagner in 2006-07
53gp 35g 118p

Kostitsyn in 2005-06
63gp 26g 78p (OHL)

Kostitsyn in 2006-07
59gp 40g 131p

I don't think it's a coincidence that their numbers skyrocketed once they started playing with Kane.

 

[Despote]

Comparing production to the top 5 scorers or whatnot seems insanely volatile in a junior league. There's a ton of variation in how good the top of an age group in a particular CHL league happens to be in any given year.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Comparing production to the top 5 scorers or whatnot seems insanely volatile in a junior league. There's a ton of variation in how good the top of an age group in a particular CHL league happens to be in any given year.

Comparing anything year by year and league by league across the CHL is problematic in a number of ways. The playing styles in the different leagues aren't reflected in "points, points, points". This entire discussion is probably focusing on the wrong thing when comparing points vs guys from 30 - 40 years ago. And that isn't to say that Bedard isn't going to tear the league apart. Nobody is saying he is a Daigle or Yakupov.

 

[daver]

Comparing anything year by year and league by league across the CHL is problematic in a number of ways. The playing styles in the different leagues aren't reflected in "points, points, points". This entire discussion is probably focusing on the wrong thing when comparing points vs guys from 30 - 40 years ago. And that isn't to say that Bedard isn't going to tear the league apart. Nobody is saying he is a Daigle or Yakupov.

Yeah, how many times have we seen a player rip up one of the CHL leagues then fall flat against better competition at the World Juniors.

Comparing production to the top 5 scorers or whatnot seems insanely volatile in a junior league. There's a ton of variation in how good the top of an age group in a particular CHL league happens to be in any given year.

How three straight years of generational production plus all-time great production at the World Juniors?

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yeah, how many times have we seen a player rip up one of the CHL leagues then fall flat against better competition at the World Juniors.

We've seen total busts rip up the World Juniors too.

Look, I get what you're saying. He does have an elite resume coming into the league. But that isn't a guarantee of anything.

 

[daver]

We've seen total busts rip up the World Juniors too.

Look, I get what you're saying. He does have an elite resume coming into the league. But that isn't a guarantee of anything.

Wow, you just blew my mind with that insight. He has arguably the most elite resume in the last 35 years as a prospect. You are just trying to downgrade that to fit your opinion.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Wow, you just blew my mind with that insight. He has arguably the most elite resume in the last 35 years as a prospect. You are just trying to downgrade that to fit your opinion.

My opinion is literally, "I'll judge him as an NHL player when he plays an NHL game".

I don't see the flaw in my logic, but I can sure see the flaws in yours. You're just upset that not everyone is anointing him the next best thing.

 

[ijuka]

Shocking poll results to me.

Closest one to Bedard is Matthews but I still don't think it's that close. Age for age, Bedard vastly outperformed Matthews on every level.

Also, Bedard's hockey IQ stands out in comparison to all three,and also stands out in comparison to McDavid himself.

 

[Despote]

How three straight years of generational production plus all-time great production at the World Juniors?

Hopefully he keeps it going in the NHL. Should expect around 100+ points in his rookie year to keep pace with generational comparisons given the high scoring league we're in.