Interesting Info: Part XXII (Jackets-related "tidbits" here)

[EspenK]

IF - and it's a big IF - the Jackets were to get back to hockey-.500 and/or spitting distance of WC2, the next 10 games couldn't really set up much better.

-Colorado (yes, they're the defending SC champs, but they look like a team on a title hangover - some of their underlying metrics are WORSE than the Jackets')
-Colorado
-vs Philadelphia (not a playoff team last year, 1-2-2 in their last 5, including three straight losses)
-@ NY Islanders (not a playoff team last year, on a 4-game win streak currently to edge above hockey-.500)
-vs Phialdelphia
-vs Montreal (bad team)
-vs Detroit (bad team)
-vs Florida (playoff team last year, but look to be struggling early this season)
-vs NY Islanders
-@ Nashville (Predators look cooked since coming back to North America; 1-6-1 since beating San Jose twice to start the season in Europe)

That takes you through the end of Thanksgiving weekend. After the Finland games, 7 of the next 8 come at home, only one against a playoff team last year (Florida). Zero of the next ten games come against teams currently in the top 11 of the league in terms of points %. Outside of moving to the Pacific and playing Vancouver and San Jose on repeat, the schedule is really pretty light.

I think the old adage will hold true - we'll find out if this team is a playoff contender by U.S. Thanksgiving.

To get back to "500" Jackets will have to go 7-1 on remaining games. I don't see it happening although in general the schedule does look reasonably favorable. I think some of your last year reliance is misleading. 4-4 over next 8 seems like a reasonably hopeful projection although I wouldn't be surprised with worse.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

A good goaltender would do wonders for this team.

…and a better defensive system would do wonders for the goaltending.

I do think Elvis has the raw talent to be a plus starter, and goalies don't have the same age curves as skaters, so I do think there's still untapped upside. Tarasov and Korpi (granted it was just one game) have also been hung out to dry.

Definitely don't envy the decisions that Jarmo has to make in net for this club. Impossible to fairly evaluate goalie play when the team in front of them looks like this, even with Elvis letting in some softies.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Is that a Torts coached team at the opposite end of the list?

Yes but someone is going to have it explain the stat to me because “above expected” sounds like a player thing only. What makes it “expected”?

 

[majormajor]

…and a better defensive system would do wonders for the goaltending.

I do think Elvis has the raw talent to be a plus starter, and goalies don't have the same age curves as skaters, so I do think there's still untapped upside. Tarasov and Korpi (granted it was just one game) have also been hung out to dry.

Definitely don't envy the decisions that Jarmo has to make in net for this club. Impossible to fairly evaluate goalie play when the team in front of them looks like this, even with Elvis letting in some softies.

We would expect goalies to look bad playing behind this team. But we can conclude that Elvis has a poor mindset for playing with a club this bad defensively. He's too bipolar and we need someone stoic in net.

Yes but someone is going to have it explain the stat to me because “above expected” sounds like a player thing only. What makes it “expected”?

Where the shots are on the ice. It's the same xG stat. You add up the players to get the team xG.

 

[Monstershockey]

Yes but someone is going to have it explain the stat to me because “above expected” sounds like a player thing only. What makes it “expected”?

I think it has something to do with saves the goalie is expected to make based on where the shots are coming from, and whether a save should have been expected to be made based on a league average of shots coming from that spot. The higher above zero the better, I guess. It probably involves both players and goalies but I don't know. My explanation could be completely wrong.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Again, based on these explanations, it sound like a player stat and not a structure stat. The team structure allows whatever shots it allows. The stat tracks which ones it expects to be saved. Ones that aren’t saved are in the goalie it seems to me, not on the team.

 

[Monk]

Again, based on these explanations, it sound like a player stat and not a structure stat. The team structure allows whatever shots it allows. The stat tracks which ones it expects to be saved. Ones that aren’t saved are in the goalie it seems to me, not on the team.

So you mean it's a player-based system instead of a coach-based system?

 

[Monstershockey]

Again, based on these explanations, it sound like a player stat and not a structure stat. The team structure allows whatever shots it allows. The stat tracks which ones it expects to be saved. Ones that aren’t saved are in the goalie it seems to me, not on the team.

I was just thinking about this and I didn't understand what you were asking. I would have to say it is a team stat because the defense kind of dictates where the shot comes from by how they are playing the zone. By forcing outside shots makes the expected saves higher, and vice versa by giving up a ton of shots in the slot area. So yeah, I would say defensive structure plays a part in it.

 

[majormajor]

I was just thinking about this and I didn't understand what you were asking. I would have to say it is a team stat because the defense kind of dictates where the shot comes from by how they are playing the zone. By forcing outside shots makes the expected saves higher, and vice versa by giving up a ton of shots in the slot area. So yeah, I would say defensive structure plays a part in it.

Forcing outside shots would lead to low xG against. The chart isn't measuring xGA it is measuring the gap between xGA and actual GA.

It's a good measure of goalie performance, where you'd look for team effects is the number of goals that come after cross crease passes and stuff like that. Just when it comes to shot locations it is nearly a perfect measure of goalie performance.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I was just thinking about this and I didn't understand what you were asking. I would have to say it is a team stat because the defense kind of dictates where the shot comes from by how they are playing the zone. By forcing outside shots makes the expected saves higher, and vice versa by giving up a ton of shots in the slot area. So yeah, I would say defensive structure plays a part in it.

I would think the opposite. Any system/team D is going to allow shots. “Anyone expected” would seem to only be concerned with shots that it felt should have been saved and weren’t.

I see major has already addressed this.

 

[Monstershockey]

Forcing outside shots would lead to low xG against. The chart isn't measuring xGA it is measuring the gap between xGA and actual GA.

It's a good measure of goalie performance, where you'd look for team effects is the number of goals that come after cross crease passes and stuff like that. Just when it comes to shot locations it is nearly a perfect measure of goalie performance.

Yeah. I didn't understand the chart right. I saw saved and assumed that was part of it.

 

[majormajor]

Yeah. I didn't understand the chart right. I saw saved and assumed that was part of it.

You can also interpret it as goals allowed above expected. Our goalies have allowed 13.4 more goals than you would expect solely based on shot location information.

 

[Monstershockey]

Is the shot location information just based on if it is a clear shot from there, or whether there is traffic in front of the net? Two shots from the same spot can be totally different shots, or is it just based on goals scored from there no matter the situation.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Forcing outside shots would lead to low xG against. The chart isn't measuring xGA it is measuring the gap between xGA and actual GA.

It's a good measure of goalie performance, where you'd look for team effects is the number of goals that come after cross crease passes and stuff like that. Just when it comes to shot locations it is nearly a perfect measure of goalie performance.

This is a spot on explanation. To those looking for more insight on structure issues, a good measure might be to look at rankings for high-danger chances allowed. Conversely look at favorable low danger chances rankings which would reflect good structure - not the gospel, but certainly good indicators.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

To get back to "500" Jackets will have to go 7-1 on remaining games. I don't see it happening although in general the schedule does look reasonably favorable. I think some of your last year reliance is misleading. 4-4 over next 8 seems like a reasonably hopeful projection although I wouldn't be surprised with worse.

I don’t think the goal should be to go 7-1. If it happens, great, but I think an easier or more realistic option would be to claw back in chunks.

If over the next 10, we go 7-3 or 6-4. we just gained 4/2 games. Hope that some of the losses are in OT to claw back some points. And hope for help elsewhere.

If the jackets go 6-4 or 7-3 for a few months straight, then they’ll climb back into the hunt. Will definitely miss the playoffs but won’t be embarrassing either.

 

[VT]

The interview with Yegor Chinakhov. Very good.

I recommend DeepL.com for translate:

«Ковальчук водил нас в баню, показал, чего ждать от НХЛ». Большое интервью Чинахова — о жизни и игре в США - 8 ноября 2022 - Sport24

21-летний нападающий рассказал, как уезжал и как адаптировался в НХЛ.

sport24.ru

Btw, some interesting things about Larsen

 

[VT]

The interview with Vladislav Gavrikov:

«С Панариным хватает одного взгляда на льду, чтобы начать улыбаться». Гавриков — о дружбе в хоккее и жизни в США - 10 ноября 2022 - Sport24

Большой разговор с российским защитником.

sport24.ru

again, I recommend DeepL.com for translate

 

[NotWendell]

The interview with Yegor Chinakhov. Very good.

I recommend DeepL.com for translate:

«Ковальчук водил нас в баню, показал, чего ждать от НХЛ». Большое интервью Чинахова — о жизни и игре в США - 8 ноября 2022 - Sport24

21-летний нападающий рассказал, как уезжал и как адаптировался в НХЛ.

sport24.ru

Btw, some interesting things about Larsen

Agreed. It's better than Google Translate.

 

[Cowumbus]

Brad Shaw’s daughter works at a bar I go to downtown. Was talking to her and she made it clear that her dad was not a believer in Jarmo long term. Kind of interesting that Shaw left with Torts, who this week also seemed to take some shots at Jarmo.

Wonder if there was some sort of bad blood? I don’t remember ever hearing anything about that (not saying our media would tell even if they knew).

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Brad Shaw’s daughter works at a bar I go to downtown. Was talking to her and she made it clear that her dad was not a believer in Jarmo long term. Kind of interesting that Shaw left with Torts, who this week also seemed to take some shots at Jarmo.

Wonder if there was some sort of bad blood? I don’t remember ever hearing anything about that (not saying our media would tell even if they knew).

To be fair, some of that might be sour grapes over not being interviewed/hired as the HC here.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

To be fair, some of that might be sour grapes over not being interviewed/hired as the HC here.

Or the reason he wasn't interviewed in the first place (or do we even know if Shaw would've wanted the interview - maybe not if this goes ways back). Hard to say much without knowing more details but interesting info nevertheless.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Or the reason he wasn't interviewed in the first place (or do we even know if Shaw would've wanted the interview - maybe not if this goes ways back). Hard to say much without knowing more details but interesting info nevertheless.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that the guy who's been an assistant coach in the NHL for the last 16 years wouldn't have turned down an interview for any HC gig.

Also worth noting that he worked with Jarmo in St. Louis too. Jarmo became the AGM there in 2005 and left for Jokerit in 2010. Shaw was on their coaching staff from 2006-2016, when Jarmo hired him here.

I'm not saying that he's wrong to feel this way, but it's pretty clearly a sour grapes situation.

 

[tunnelvision]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that the guy who's been an assistant coach in the NHL for the last 16 years wouldn't have turned down an interview for any HC gig.

Also worth noting that he worked with Jarmo in St. Louis too. Jarmo became the AGM there in 2005 and left for Jokerit in 2010. Shaw was on their coaching staff from 2006-2016, when Jarmo hired him here.

I'm not saying that he's wrong to feel this way, but it's pretty clearly a sour grapes situation.

Great point about shared history of the two but "not believing in Jarmo long term" can still mean a lot of things:

a) He's just bitter Jarmo didn't believe in his capabilities to be a HC. What he told his daughter was pure copium.
b) He never believed Jarmo could build a winning team
c) He thought Jarmo wasn't great at making long-term plans and committing to them
d) He felt his relationship with Jarmo wouldn't be fruitful in long-term
e) He thought Jarmo didn't listen enough to what his coaches had to say about the roster construction/playing style/etc.
f) He thought Jarmo has some great qualities as a GM but something's missing which prevents him from being successful long-term
g) Something else

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Great point about shared history of the two but "not believing in Jarmo long term" can still mean a lot of things:

a) He's just bitter Jarmo didn't believe in his capabilities to be a HC. What he told his daughter was pure copium.

Probably the most likely, and supported by the fact that Shaw hasn't gotten an NHL HC gig after being an assistant for nearly two decades.

b) He never believed Jarmo could build a winning team
c) He thought Jarmo wasn't great at making long-term plans and committing to them

f) He thought Jarmo has some great qualities as a GM but something's missing which prevents him from being successful long-term

Would be a really weird thing to suddenly believe these things about a GM who you worked with for 10+ years across two orgs!

IMO his criticism of Jarmo would maybe be more along the lines of "he broke up the old core" but with PLD demanding a trade and Jones not wanting to stick around, he pretty much had to commit to a rebuild. Not to mention that Jarmo put that core together and went all-in on that core in 2019.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

I hope we get some stories in 10 years to shed some light on these things...


Johnny and the cannon, erm, fireworks, at 08:25.