I'll say they'll be a possible wildcard team at best that might steal a round. Their biggest issue is that they're weak down the middle (relative to the real elite teams). O'Reilly is solid in both ends and a clutch playoff performer, but he's 33 this year and he plays a hard game. At this point in his career he's best suited for a 2nd line role. Does Nyquist play the middle or is he wing? Either way he doesn't have a proven track record as being anything more than an average 2nd liner, notwithstanding last season. Then who?
They are well-positioned on the wings no doubt, and perhaps Stamkos can fill in there for spurts if needed, but their defence looks pedestrian. After Josi and Skjei, who? Their PP looks to make a stark improvement, though.
They'll be a bubble 7-8 team and probably get put down quick unless Saros stands on his head (and against Edmonton/Vancouver/Colorado/Dallas that probably won't be enough). Who are they displacing in their division? Colorado? Dallas? Winnipeg? Seattle will be better, and they won't surpass the odd man out of Edmonton/Vancouver/LA/Vegas (well, maybe LA). To me they'll be one of those tweener teams who won't be good enough to compete for the cup but won't be bad enough to add high end pieces at the draft. They're in purgatory. If things don't go their way this season, they'll be stuck with this core for at least 2 more seasons following.
I'm not as optimistic about this bunch as others.