NHL Entry Draft If Zadina falls to the Sens should they take him?

[Sens in Process]

I think he was talking about Zadina with that claim, he was suggesting Kucherov doesn't. The premise being that having more goals than assists is a bad thing, a red flag if you will.

That is not claim. Having a significant difference between goals and assists, like a 2 to 1 ratio, over several seasons is a red flag.

Ovechkin has about 90 more assist than goals over 1000 games. It is pretty close to be 1 to 1 ratio despite being the greatest goal scorer of his generation. Even in the KHL, he put up a 1 for 1 ratio. It is a poor example.

Auston Mathews had several season pre-NHL where he had a higher assist ratio than goals. Mathews is trending toward being a 1 to 1 player in the NHL. He is young, and perhaps tries to do too much.

Laine is a bit of an exception. Yes he scores a lot more goals than assists. You got me.

Laine, Mathews and Ovkechin have unbelievable sets of tools, well beyond Zadina. Zadina appears to be an average athlete at best. I think it disingenuous to be honest to use them as comparison. Exceptionally gifted players will defy conventional wisdom.

Zadina has 37 goals to 17 assists in international play since 2014-2015. I find it a little strange and worrisome.

 

[BondraTime]

That is not claim. Having a significant difference between goals and assists, like a 2 to 1 ratio, over several seasons is a red flag.

Ovechkin has about 90 more assist than goals over 1000 games. It is pretty close to be 1 to 1 ratio despite being the greatest goal scorer of his generation. Even in the KHL, he put up a 1 for 1 ratio. It is a poor example.

Auston Mathews had several season pre-NHL where he had a higher assist ratio than goals. Mathews is trending toward being a 1 to 1 player in the NHL. He is young, and perhaps tries to do too much.

Laine is a bit of an exception. Yes he scores a lot more goals than assists. You got me.

Laine, Mathews and Ovkechin have unbelievable sets of tools, well beyond Zadina. Zadina appears to be an average athlete at best. I think it disingenuous to be honest to use them as comparison. Exceptionally gifted players will defy conventional wisdom.

Zadina has 37 goals to 17 assists in international play since 2014-2015. I find it a little strange and worrisome.

Zadina just had a Q season where he scored 49 goals and had 45 assists...let's not act like he's scoring 10 goals to every assist. There is no red flag, his vision is top notch

There is nothing worrisome about his play internationally, watching him at this years WJ's shows that. His stat line of 7g 1a, he showed unbelievable vision and passing all tournament long.

Watching a ton of Moosehead games this year backs that up

 

[Micklebot]

This is an excellent post. Thanks for looking into that.

I've always known that it's easier to score in the USHL playing for the USNDTP, which is why I have compiled two separate lists of the highest 17YR old USHL scorers - one for the USNTDP kids and one for the rest of the teams - but those numbers are pretty shocking.

Definitely disregard my comment about Wahlstrom's production being more impressive because of the league, but the 17 versus 18YR old season part still stands. Proper statistical comparison would be what Zadina did last year versus what Wahlstrom did this year, or what Zadina did this year versus what Wahlstrom is projected to do next year. Because of that I definitely think people tend to overstate what Zadina did in the Q this year, even though it was an excellent season no question.

For what it's worth, the under 18 team doesn't always seem to be equivalent to an all star team, though it was this past year and the year before. The 2015-16 team for example did not score at will, in fact, I think it was well below the league average for some reason.

It's also worth noting this is Zadina's first year on small ice, so there was likely an adjustment there both in terms of culture and the game. I also don't know how minor hockey progresses in Czechia; he's was playing in a men's league at 17 years old but likely getting 4th line treatment. This isn't a case of a guy who's in his 4th year in the Q, it's his first,

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Dangerous to make that different league comparison. Zadina’s production was pretty well just as good or better than all but 2 players in the Q.
Hughes undoubtedly positively impacted Wahlstrom’s production, too.

That’s not to say your estimation of their future is wrong, though. I personally have Zadina a tier above Wahlstrom as I find he’s a more complete player and more dynamic, but as far as scoring goals goal, I think they are going to be close.

Do you know Wahlstrom's production with and without Hughes?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Playing for the developmental team is a bit like playing on an all star team though; if you prorated the under 18 teams wins to a 60 game season, they'd have 51 wins to 40 for the next highest (Omaha played 63 games for some reason, so I prorated them to 60 as well). The under 18 team was scoring 5.4 goals a game compared to a league average of 3.12, or compared to the 4.07 goals per game by the top team in the Q. Even if you take out Wahlstrom's 22 goals entirely, that team was scoring at a rate 45% higher than the league average and about 11% higher than the highest scoring team in the Q. Not really a fair comparison, don't you think?

Maybe it's a harder league to score in if you play for the lincoln stars, or greenbay Gamblers, but I think that's a dubious claim if you're talking about the National Under 18 team

Wahlstroms stats are available somewhere on his thread in the prospects board. They play USHL teams and NCAA teams.

copied over from there unvalidated;
Wahlstrom vs NCAA D1 without Hughes (Gruden as his C): 8 games, 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points.

Wahlstrom vs NCAA D1 with Hughes: 3 games, 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points.

also a bunch of banter about them being exhibition games for the NCAA teams , and not using their top goalies...

 

[Micklebot]

That is not claim. Having a significant difference between goals and assists, like a 2 to 1 ratio, over several seasons is a red flag.

Ovechkin has about 90 more assist than goals over 1000 games. It is pretty close to be 1 to 1 ratio despite being the greatest goal scorer of his generation. Even in the KHL, he put up a 1 for 1 ratio. It is a poor example.

Auston Mathews had several season pre-NHL where he had a higher assist ratio than goals. Mathews is trending toward being a 1 to 1 player in the NHL. He is young, and perhaps tries to do too much.

Laine is a bit of an exception. Yes he scores a lot more goals than assists. You got me.

Laine, Mathews and Ovkechin have unbelievable sets of tools, well beyond Zadina. Zadina appears to be an average athlete at best. I think it disingenuous to be honest to use them as comparison. Exceptionally gifted players will defy conventional wisdom.

Zadina has 37 goals to 17 assists in international play since 2014-2015. I find it a little strange and worrisome.

Can you bring any supporting facts or is this just your opinion? Because I've only every heard of this from you. None of ISS, CS, Redline, McKeen's, Button ect have brought up this red flag, for Zadina, or any other prospect I can think of. I think you're searching for anything out of the ordinary and then creating a narrative to fit it.

Looking at the chart above, he had similar assist rates on the same team (while being younger) to Chytil (drafted 21st OA last year) and Necas (drafted 12 OA last year), so really all you're doing is punishing him for scoring more goals on top of similar assists. Seems,to quote you, a little strange and worrisome

 

[Micklebot]

Wahlstroms stats are available somewhere on his thread in the prospects board. They play USHL teams and NCAA teams.

copied over from there unvalidated;
Wahlstrom vs NCAA D1 without Hughes (Gruden as his C): 8 games, 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points.

Wahlstrom vs NCAA D1 with Hughes: 3 games, 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points.

also a bunch of banter about them being exhibition games for the NCAA teams , and not using their top goalies...

So the numbers available on Hockey DB (the 26 games, 22 goals 23 assists) are just in the USHL games. The under 17 and und 18 teams split a schedule in that league with the u17 playing ~35 game while the U18 team plays the remaining 35. The numbers on a site like elite prospects under USDP includes both the exhibition games against NCAA teams (they don't appear in team schedules so I assume they don't count for national rankings) 15 against international teams, and the games in the USHL. So, the 62GP 48g 46a is including both the games against div 1 and 3 NCAA teams and the 26 games against the USHL teams. So, based on that, in 36 games against NCAA/edit:international teams he scored 26 goals and 23 assists.

Edit: Not surprising that he scored a lot more goals in those tiny samples with Hughes as his center.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So the numbers available on Hockey DB (the 26 games, 22 goals 23 assists) are just in the USHL games. The under 17 and und 18 teams split a schedule in that league with the u17 playing ~35 game while the U18 team plays the remaining 35. The numbers on a site like elite prospects under USDP includes both the exhibition games against NCAA teams (they don't appear in team schedules so I assume they don't count for national rankings) and the games in the USHL. So, the 62GP 48g 46a is including both the games against div 1 and 3 NCAA teams and the 26 games against the USHL teams. So, based on that, he scored 36 games against NCAA teams he scored 26 goals and 23 assists.

I can't tell looking at that 36 games seems high against NCAA teams I think that would include U18 tournament play as well.

 

[Micklebot]

I can't tell looking at that 36 games seems high against NCAA teams I think that would include U18 tournament play as well.

Possibly but I don't think so. I can't find much on the NCAA exhibition game schedules, but div 1 is 20 teams and div 3 is 15 so 35 games would be 1 per team, plus 1 game.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Possibly but I don't think so. I can't find much on the NCAA exhibition game schedules, but div 1 is 20 teams and div 3 is 15 so 35 games would be 1 per team, plus 1 game.

2017-18 Full Schedule
This includes both the U17 and the U18 teams schedules.
Those must include the the tournament play because they are not listed separately; and the USHL stats are. ... that full schedule shows their international competition as well

 

[Micklebot]

2017-18 Full Schedule
This includes both the U17 and the U18 teams schedules.
Those must include the the tournament play because they are not listed separately; and the USHL stats are. ... that full schedule shows their international competition as well

Cool. Looks like there's a dozen international games

edit: Found the schedule for just the U18 team
NTDP Schedule & Results

15 games against international teams included in the 62 total games.

 

[Sens in Process]

Can you bring any supporting facts or is this just your opinion? Because I've only every heard of this from you. None of ISS, CS, Redline, McKeen's, Button ect have brought up this red flag, for Zadina, or any other prospect I can think of. I think you're searching for anything out of the ordinary and then creating a narrative to fit it.

Looking at the chart above, he had similar assist rates on the same team (while being younger) to Chytil (drafted 21st OA last year) and Necas (drafted 12 OA last year), so really all you're doing is punishing him for scoring more goals on top of similar assists. Seems,to quote you, a little strange and worrisome

So flippant.....

I got facts, just take a look at this list.
Jake Vitananen: Drafted 6th overall in 2014th. Scored 45 goal and had 26 Assists
Valerie Nichukin: Drafted 10th Overall in 2013. He had 12 goals and four assists in his draft year
Brett Connelly: Drafted 6th overall in 2010 draft. He was injured in his drat year and only played a few games. Draft year+1 year he scored 46 goals and 27 assists.
Nino Neidereiter: Drafted 5th Overall 2010. He 36 goals and 24 assists in his draft year
Curtis Lazar: Drafted 17th overall in 2013. 38 goals and 23 assits in his draft year.
Luke Kunin: Drafted 15th overall. He had 37 goals and 19 assists.

These guys were all competing for CY Young in the time of their draft years(Connelly the only exception). Many become perennial Cy Young award challengers at the NHL level. What is common among them all? It is a lack of hockey sense.

I know the Curtis Lazar one stings the most.

I don't need to appeal to authority.

When guys are running at 2 goals to 1 assist ratio, I find a little disconcerting.

Zadina's production at best on best tournaments over 5 years, where he puts up 37 goals to 19 assists is problematic.

I gave you the precedents. Buyer beware! You have been warned.

 

[BondraTime]

So flippant.....

I got facts, just take a look at this list.
Jake Vitananen: Drafted 6th overall in 2014th. Scored 45 goal and had 26 Assists
Valerie Nichukin: Drafted 10th Overall in 2013. He had 12 goals and four assists in his draft year
Brett Connelly: Drafted 6th overall in 2010 draft. He was injured in his drat year and only played a few games. Draft year+1 year he scored 46 goals and 27 assists.
Nino Neidereiter: Drafted 5th Overall 2010. He 36 goals and 24 assists in his draft year
Curtis Lazar: Drafted 17th overall in 2013. 38 goals and 23 assits in his draft year.
Luke Kunin: Drafted 15th overall. He 37 goals and 19 assists.

These guys were all competing for CY Young in the time of their draft years(Connelly the only exception). Many become perennial Cy Young award challengers at the NHL level. What is common among them all? It is a lack of hockey sense.

I know the Curtis Lazar one stings the most.

I don't need to appeal to authority.

When guys are running at 2 goals to 1 assist ratio, I find a little disconcerting.

Zadina's production at best on best tournaments over 5 years, where he puts up 37 goals to 19 assists is problematic.

I gave you the precedents. But beware!

Ok, but I'm telling you, Zadina doesn't lack hockey sense, I've actually been in the rinks watching him all season.

It isn't problematic. It's you being, well, I don't know...

"When guys are running at 2 goals to 1 assist ratio, I find a little disconcerting."

HE HAD A STATLINE OF 49G 45A...Jesus Christ

So you have the same concerns about Svechnikov, correct??

Honestly, all it takes is watching him play rather than looking for precedence to fit a narrative. Hockey sense is his biggest asset...

Batherson had 7 goals and 0 assists in international play, is that concerning?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Popular Guy.

 

[Micklebot]

So flippant.....

I got facts, just take a look at this list.
Jake Vitananen: Drafted 6th overall in 2014th. Scored 45 goal and had 26 Assists
Valerie Nichukin: Drafted 10th Overall in 2013. He had 12 goals and four assists in his draft year
Brett Connelly: Drafted 6th overall in 2010 draft. He was injured in his drat year and only played a few games. Draft year+1 year he scored 46 goals and 27 assists.
Nino Neidereiter: Drafted 5th Overall 2010. He 36 goals and 24 assists in his draft year
Curtis Lazar: Drafted 17th overall in 2013. 38 goals and 23 assits in his draft year.
Luke Kunin: Drafted 15th overall. He had 37 goals and 19 assists.

These guys were all competing for CY Young in the time of their draft years(Connelly the only exception). Many become perennial Cy Young award challengers at the NHL level. What is common among them all? It is a lack of hockey sense.

I know the Curtis Lazar one stings the most.

I don't need to appeal to authority.

When guys are running at 2 goals to 1 assist ratio, I find a little disconcerting.

Zadina's production at best on best tournaments over 5 years, where he puts up 37 goals to 19 assists is problematic.

I gave you the precedents. Buyer beware! You have been warned.

Take a closer look at your examples, and compare them to Zadina's draft year instead of past years;

	GP	A	A/GP
Zadina	57	38	0.666666667
Lazar	72	23	0.319444444
Niederreiter	65	29	0.446153846
Virtanen	71	26	0.366197183
Connelly (+1)	59	27	0.457627119
Kunin (too soon)	34	13	0.382352941
Nichushkin	33	4	0.121212121

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Notice a difference? I sure do.

Maybe instead of ratio, look at production rates. If you think lots of assists are representative of hockey IQ, fine, Zadina showed significantly more than any of your examples.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Take a closer look at your examples, and compare them to Zadina's draft year instead of past years;

	GP	A	A/GP
Zadina	57	38	0.666666667
Lazar	72	23	0.319444444
Niederreiter	65	29	0.446153846
Virtanen	71	26	0.366197183
Connelly (+1)	59	27	0.457627119
Kunin (too soon)	34	13	0.382352941
Nichushkin	33	4	0.121212121

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Notice a difference? I sure do.

Maybe instead of ratio, look at production rates. If you think lots of assists are representative of hockey IQ, fine, Zadina showed significantly more than any of your examples.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Sounds like zadina might actually fall to us

 

[Sens in Process]

Ok, but I'm telling you, Zadina doesn't lack hockey sense, I've actually been in the rinks watching him all season.

It isn't problematic. It's you being, well, I don't know...

"When guys are running at 2 goals to 1 assist ratio, I find a little disconcerting."

HE HAD A STATLINE OF 49G 45A...Jesus Christ

So you have the same concerns about Svechnikov, correct??

Honestly, all it takes is watching him play rather than looking for precedence to fit a narrative. Hockey sense is his biggest asset...

Batherson had 7 goals and 0 assists in international play, is that concerning?

First , I showed receipts on the perils of drafting players with a 2 to 1 goal to assist ratio.

Yes there are exceptions. Laine, a generational goal scorer, is an aberration. But in reality, you are probably going to end up with a Lazar.

I could just imagine if someone jumped on hfboards circa 2015 to warn about Lazar's goal to assist ratio in junior. They would of been right, but yikes.

The Cy Young thing is pretty well know phenemon. There is usually a stigma attached to it. Guys like Clarkson and Bourque are perennial contenders.
It is usually indicative of something lacking in the player.

2nd: I generally look for patterns. Batherson and Svenchikov dont have the same issues. In fact, Svechnikov has had more assists than goals over last two years.

If it makes you feel any better, I think Zadina will be a fine player. Maybe a 30/30 guy if things go right.
I just want to temper expectations. The 40 or 50 goal talk is out of hand.

I like Tkachuk, but his 8 goals are a red flag.

I also like Bouchard, but there has been some scathing reports about his defensive IQ.

With my reading and watching, I have managed to rationalize those issues away, but I certainly dont deny their existence.

PS even Phil Kessel has had more assist than goals throughout his career. In fact, he had 18 goals and 33 points in his draft eligible year in college.

 

[BondraTime]

First , I showed receipts on the perils of drafting players with a 2 to 1 goal to assist ratio.

Yes there are exceptions. Laine, a generational goal scorer, is an aberration. But in reality, you are probably going to end up with a Lazar.

I could just imagine if someone jumped on hfboards circa 2015 to warn about Lazar's goal to assist ratio in junior. They would of been right, but yikes.

The Cy Young thing is pretty well know phenemon. There is usually a stigma attached to it. Guys like Clarkson and Bourque are perennial contenders.
It is usually indicative of something lacking in the player.

2nd: I generally look for patterns. Batherson and Svenchikov dont have the same issues. In fact, Svechnikov has had more assists than goals over last two years.

If it makes you feel any better, I think Zadina will be a fine player. Maybe a 30/30 guy if things go right.
I just want to temper expectations. The 40 or 50 goal talk is out of hand.

I like Tkachuk, but his 8 goals are a red flag.

I also like Bouchard, but there has been some scathing reports about his defensive IQ.

With my reading and watching, I have managed to rationalize those issues away, but I certainly dont deny their existence.

PS even Phil Kessel has had more assist than goals throughout his career. In fact, he had 18 goals and 33 points in his draft eligible year in college.

I mean, yeah, all that stuff is extremely easy to see...I understand what you're saying. It doesn't apply here.

Your examples:

All CHL guys played more games than Zadina

Virtanen - 1.73 g/a ratio with 71 points
Lazar - 1.64 g/a ratio with 61 points
Nichuskin - 3.0 g/a ratio with 16 points
Connely draft +1 - 1.70 g/a ratio with 73 points
Neidereiter - 1.5 g/a ratio with 60 points
Kunin - 1.94 g/a ratio with 56 points

Counting playoffs

66gp 49g 45a 94 points - Zadina 1.09 g/a ratio in the CHL

52gp 45g 38a 83 points - Svechnikov 1.11 g/a in the CHL

Without playoffs

57gp 44g 38a 82 poinits - Zadina 1.15 g/a ratio

44gp 40g 32a 72 points -Svechnikov 1.25 g/a ratio

Not only did Zadina vastly out point these guys in less games, he had nowhere near the g/a ratio of any of the examples you seem keen on using.

So yeah, your examples are pretty useless

Yes, Kessel did have a higher g/a ratio in his draft year than Zadina, who would have thought...

 

[Sens in Process]

Take a closer look at your examples, and compare them to Zadina's draft year instead of past years;

	GP	A	A/GP
Zadina	57	38	0.666666667
Lazar	72	23	0.319444444
Niederreiter	65	29	0.446153846
Virtanen	71	26	0.366197183
Connelly (+1)	59	27	0.457627119
Kunin (too soon)	34	13	0.382352941
Nichushkin	33	4	0.121212121

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Notice a difference? I sure do.

Maybe instead of ratio, look at production rates. If you think lots of assists are representative of hockey IQ, fine, Zadina showed significantly more than any of your examples.

Guys like Lazar have a well established pattern, so does Zadina. I took a snap shot of their draft years, because I am lazy, but these issues run deep. Lazar is a prime example, just look at his junior career as a whole. He also had one year in junior, his last, where he significantly closed the gap between goals and assist. So what? The pattern showed what he was.

Only once has Zadina had more assists than goals in like 6 years, playing at various tournament and the Czech junior league and it was by one 1 in 2014. He had some years where he ran even.

But in international play, best on best, he puts up numbers like 22 to 11 or 7 to 1.


Kraut is the guy we should be looking at the for 22nd pick.. He seems to do all the heavy lifting on those Czech teams.


There is something in those numbers that is unpalatable.

It leads me to believe he wont be this point a game dynamic player that he was being compared to, like Kucherov.

When I first dropped Cy Young thesis for draft eligibles, you seemed to doubt its credibility. How do you feel about now?

 

[Boud]

Why in the world are we talking about Lazar and comparing him to Zadina.....

I mean that's when I know that you don't know.

Stats watching is not the best way to evaluate players that should be very clear.

 

[Micklebot]

First , I showed receipts on the perils of drafting players with a 2 to 1 goal to assist ratio.

Yes there are exceptions. Laine, a generational goal scorer, is an aberration. But in reality, you are probably going to end up with a Lazar.

I could just imagine if someone jumped on hfboards circa 2015 to warn about Lazar's goal to assist ratio in junior. They would of been right, but yikes.

The Cy Young thing is pretty well know phenemon. There is usually a stigma attached to it. Guys like Clarkson and Bourque are perennial contenders.
It is usually indicative of something lacking in the player.

2nd: I generally look for patterns. Batherson and Svenchikov dont have the same issues. In fact, Svechnikov has had more assists than goals over last two years.

If it makes you feel any better, I think Zadina will be a fine player. Maybe a 30/30 guy if things go right.
I just want to temper expectations. The 40 or 50 goal talk is out of hand.

I like Tkachuk, but his 8 goals are a red flag.

I also like Bouchard, but there has been some scathing reports about his defensive IQ.

With my reading and watching, I have managed to rationalize those issues away, but I certainly dont deny their existence.

PS even Phil Kessel has had more assist than goals throughout his career. In fact, he had 18 goals and 33 points in his draft eligible year in college.

So were just going to ignore the fact that Zadina had 45 assists this season reg season and playoffs combined and call it a cy young season? Would you have been happier if he scored fewer goals? As mentioned, his assist rates in 2016-17 were similar to other first round picks from that year who played in the same league (Necas and Chytil), so in an apples to somewhat younger apple comparison, he's doing as much as the older 1st round apples while adding a bunch of goals on top of it. Compare him to Svechnikov, and it's 38 assists in 57 games to a prorated 41 assists for Svech (he only played 44 games), or is Svechnikov buyer beware too because he scored more goals than assists?

Guys like Selanne and Bure scored more than they assisted, must have low hockey iq to. Tavares scored more in his draft year than he assisted as did Stamkos. What a bunch of dummies.

There's a reason no scout is worried about Zadina's hockey IQ.

 

[BondraTime]

Guys like Lazar have a well established pattern, so does Zadina. I took a snap shot of their draft years, because I am lazy, but these issues run deep. Lazar is a prime example, just look at his junior career as a whole. He also had one year in junior, his last, where he significantly closed the gap between goals and assist. So what? The pattern showed what he was.

Only once has Zadina had more assists than goals in like 6 years, playing at various tournament and the Czech junior league and it was by one 1 in 2014. He had some years where he ran even.

But in international play, best on best, he puts up numbers like 22 to 11 or 7 to 1.


Kraut is the guy we should be looking at the for 22nd pick.. He seems to do all the heavy lifting on those Czech teams.


There is something in those numbers that is unpalatable.

It leads me to believe he wont be this point a game dynamic player that he was being compared to, like Kucherov.

When I first dropped Cy Young thesis for draft eligibles, you seemed to doubt its credibility. How do you feel about now?

Even better actually

Everyone knows about the Cy Young thing, you're not talking to laymen.

 

[BondraTime]

Why in the world are we talking about Lazar and comparing him to Zadina.....

I mean that's when I know that you don't know.

Stats watching is not the best way to evaluate players that should be very clear.

Pretty much this

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Part of me wants him ,but iam so torn ...That Dobson kid could the anchor to our blueline for years

Seriously. There are half a dozen kids at #4 that all have the potential to be solid NHLers and potential core pieces. At the same time, they all have some level of bust potential, too.