If McDavid scores 150+ points this season...

[daver]

As a hockey fan I feel bad for guys like edog and Daver. Their agenda completely blocks them from just being able to sit back and enjoy what we’re in the midst of witnessing right now.

My agenda included starting a recent McDavid thread to hear recent HOH opinions without offering of my own.

Also my agenda included a recent thread defending the rating of older players.

This would hardly push an apparent agenda for Crosby.

 

[bobholly39]

I would strongly contest that there is a big 4 now. There is big 3 and Gretzky far ahead, McDavid could realistically make the trailing group 4 and he is the first player I have seen that I feel that way about unless maybe you count goalies(Hasek).

Only caveat is how Jagr look if there was no Lemieux or if he played today? McDavis is just a step above Crosby/Ovi for me but it's far from a given he eclipse them for career.

The logic behind the big 4 isn't necessarily to imply they are all 4 on the same level, but moreso that as a group they are a significant step above everyone.

For McDavid - or anyone, to join the big 5, for me it's less about him being worthy of being on same level as them, but it's more about him being a significant step above everyone else.

Also - although I do have Gretzky as a very easy #1, for height of peak, both Orr and Lemieux are right there with him. For prime/career, Howe mounts a heck of a case too. I do agree in my opinion he is untouchable at #1, but not enough for me to agree with a "big 1" following your logic.

Also, Jagr has pretty big weaknesses in his career. Unlike Crosby/Ovi/Mcdavid, he actually started his career a bit slow. Yes he won 2 cups early, but it's not until his ~5th season he started being in running for best in the world, compared to much earlier (2nd or 3rd season) for other 3.

Another weakness for Jagr is he lacks a lot on longevity of elite seasons vs Ovechkin/Crosby. Yes he played until mid-40s as a good NHL player which is amazing, but if you were to count elite, or even "very good" season depending on how you define the term, he lacks. He left for KHL, slowed down a bit in Washington, etc. Both Crosby and Ovechkin probably have a better 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th best season than Jagr. For McDavid it's too soon on the longevity part, but he's pacing Crosby very well age for age so far, so good chance he ends up passing Jagr too unless he somehow falls off a cliff.

Finally - Jagr was a very good playoff performer overall, but he lacks a true signature playoff run (let alone, multiple runs). That's another glaring weakness in his resume.

I say this as someone whose very high on Jagr's peak/prime, I think I may have him as high as #5 after the big 4 for peak. But with or without Lemieux, I don't think any of the above 3 negatives against him really change. I think he's one of the players who has an argument for #5 all-time, but definitely not the strongest of arguments.

 

[Overrated]

The logic behind the big 4 isn't necessarily to imply they are all 4 on the same level, but moreso that as a group they are a significant step above everyone.

For McDavid - or anyone, to join the big 5, for me it's less about him being worthy of being on same level as them, but it's more about him being a significant step above everyone else.

Also - although I do have Gretzky as a very easy #1, for height of peak, both Orr and Lemieux are right there with him. For prime/career, Howe mounts a heck of a case too. I do agree in my opinion he is untouchable at #1, but not enough for me to agree with a "big 1" following your logic.

Also, Jagr has pretty big weaknesses in his career. Unlike Crosby/Ovi/Mcdavid, he actually started his career a bit slow. Yes he won 2 cups early, but it's not until his ~5th season he started being in running for best in the world, compared to much earlier (2nd or 3rd season) for other 3.

Another weakness for Jagr is he lacks a lot on longevity of elite seasons vs Ovechkin/Crosby. Yes he played until mid-40s as a good NHL player which is amazing, but if you were to count elite, or even "very good" season depending on how you define the term, he lacks. He left for KHL, slowed down a bit in Washington, etc. Both Crosby and Ovechkin probably have a better 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th best season than Jagr. For McDavid it's too soon on the longevity part, but he's pacing Crosby very well age for age so far, so good chance he ends up passing Jagr too unless he somehow falls off a cliff.

Finally - Jagr was a very good playoff performer overall, but he lacks a true signature playoff run (let alone, multiple runs). That's another glaring weakness in his resume.

I say this as someone whose very high on Jagr's peak/prime, I think I may have him as high as #5 after the big 4 for peak. But with or without Lemieux, I don't think any of the above 3 negatives against him really change. I think he's one of the players who has an argument for #5 all-time, but definitely not the strongest of arguments.

Jagr had 8 straight super elite seasons. Then had another insane year in 05/06. Having a slightly better 10th best season is silly nitpicking, especially when today's era makes it easier given the fact the talent pool is shrinking. Also I am not sure about how true the statement is. Jagr's 10th best season was the 99 point season he had in 93/94. Or that could even be his 11th best season after the 96 point 06/07 season.

 

[MadLuke]

Another weakness for Jagr is he lacks a lot on longevity of elite seasons vs Ovechkin/Crosby.

Points

1.	Gordie Howe*	21
2.	Wayne Gretzky*	16
3.	Jean Beliveau*	12
	Sidney Crosby	12
5.	Maurice Richard*	11
	Alex Delvecchio*	11
	Bobby Hull*	11
	Jaromír Jágr	11
9.	Phil Esposito*	10
	Mario Lemieux*	10

WIth 11 top 10 and 9 season in Top 10 ppg, that something very few player has a edge on Jagr, longevity of prime, that something Crosby could end up with an edge over Jagr, but he could end up having one over everyone that his not Howe-Gretzky

 

[daver]

While never being the leading scorer on a Cup winner (and only once leading in goals and once in assists) and 2 dud Cup Finals in the 3 wins.

3 pts, -3 in 7 in '08 and 4 pts, even in 6 in '16. He had 1 total goal in the 13 games between those 2 series.

I guess the whole was dud in '16

Points

1.	Gordie Howe*	21
2.	Wayne Gretzky*	16
3.	Jean Beliveau*	12
	Sidney Crosby	12
5.	Maurice Richard*	11
	Alex Delvecchio*	11
	Bobby Hull*	11
	Jaromír Jágr	11
9.	Phil Esposito*	10
	Mario Lemieux*	10

WIth 11 top 10 and 9 season in Top 10 ppg, that something very few player has a edge on Jagr, longevity of prime, that something Crosby could end up with an edge over Jagr, but he could end up having one over everyone that his not Howe-Gretzky

He passed Jagr quite awhile ago. Only Wayne and Howe have an edge for longevity of prime.

 

[The Panther]

Another weakness for Jagr is he lacks a lot on longevity of elite seasons vs Ovechkin/Crosby.

You made a great post overall, but this point is just... wrong.

In 1992, Jagr scored 24 points in 21 playoff games, winning the Cup.

In 2016, Jagr led a 1st-place NHL club in scoring, including 55 even-strength points (while barely playing 2nd-line minutes). His ES points-per-sixty was higher than Crosby.

 

[daver]

You made a great post overall, but this point is just... wrong.

In 1992, Jagr scored 24 points in 21 playoff games, winning the Cup.

In 2016, Jagr led a 1st-place NHL club in scoring, including 55 even-strength points (while barely playing 2nd-line minutes). His ES points-per-sixty was higher than Crosby.

In 1992, Jagr was 4th in points and 5th in PPG in team playoff scoring. This does not qualify as elite, let alone as an "elite season".

In 2016, he was 22nd in points, enough said......unless you want to acknowledge that Crosby has more ES points than McDavid this season, to say nothing about the significantly bigger gap in ES points-per-sixty.

Jagr certainly has one of the best seven year stretches outside of the Big 4 plus an elite 33/34 year old season plus some accomplishments that were elite for his age (both young and old) but he is not among the very best in longevity of elite prime.

After the 2nd best 18-year-old season by a forward in NHL history, Crosby reached league best status in 06/07 and stayed in that conversation thru the 17/18 season. Since then, he has played at a Hart nomination/Top 5 player level similar to Howe's post 62/63 season career.

This is 15 seasons of elite longevity.

 

[Stephen]

I always wonder with McDavid. With his outstanding points pace as the dominant Gretzky-like player of this era, is he too good to have a Steve Yzerman style transformation as a two way force? If anyone can outgun their problems, it's McDavid. But will the pursuit of 50 goals, 150 points, etc. just keep going indefinitely, or will there be a time during his prime years when the team and player might say, "we can win with 110-120 points if we take care of x, y, z."

 

[authentic]

I always wonder with McDavid. With his outstanding points pace as the dominant Gretzky-like player of this era, is he too good to have a Steve Yzerman style transformation as a two way force? If anyone can outgun their problems, it's McDavid. But will the pursuit of 50 goals, 150 points, etc. just keep going indefinitely, or will there be a time during his prime years when the team and player might say, "we can win with 110-120 points if we take care of x, y, z."

Judging by his most recent playoff performance you would have to think that would suffice with a reasonable amount of depth on his team.

 

[Stephen]

Judging by his most recent playoff performance you would have to think that would suffice with a reasonable amount of depth on his team.

I don’t think the 2021-22 Oilers would be proof of playoff success though when we’re talking legacy.

 

[authentic]

I don’t think the 2021-22 Oilers would be proof of playoff success though when we’re talking legacy.

For sure but I mean with more depth on his team they could win the Cup without McDavid changing his game at all.

 

[Amazinmets73]

 

[VMBM]

Someone riding on my coat-tails there.

 

[bobholly39]

I still think 150 is a stretch, but I'll be honest this week is the very first time in his career where i'm starting to think he might hit it.

He had a similar start last season, before hitting a bad patch and slowing down. This year, instead of that, at game 25 he's gone on a stretch of 19 points and and 9 goals in 8 games.

At this point - anything less than 130 will be a significant disappointment to me. And I think 150 is a possibility, though still very far away.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

My model works differently that this one. It's a bit less optimistic, but it's currently giving McDavid about a 32% chance of reaching 150 points this year (assuming no injuries). His probability was in the low 20's a couple of weeks ago (19 points in 8 games certainly helped).

I wouldn't bet on it, but it's amazing that there's a real chance this could happen.

(EDIT - if you looking at the underlying stats (PDO-type numbers), surprisingly, at ES and at 5-on-5 specifically, McDavid's numbers look sustainable. But the Oilers' powerplay has been incredible (just under 32%) and that's likely unsustainable. That's probably the biggest challenge to McDavid reaching 150).

 

[ozzie]

Isn't it more about separation from his peers? I mean 150 is a feat for sure, but if his own teammate ends up in the same ballpark. Even though we know McDavid is in a class of his own.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Isn't it more about separation from his peers? I mean 150 is a feat for sure, but if his own teammate ends up in the same ballpark. Even though we know McDavid is in a class of his own.

He’s on pace to outscore Draisaitl by more than 20 pts.

Which is exactly what he did 2 seasons ago in the shortened season. And the next closest non teammate was 36 pts behind. In a shortened season. If he does that twice in 3 years sandwiched around the postseason he has last year I don’t really know what more we could expect in terms of separation. He’s not Gretzky and he’s not any of the Big 4, but this has to quickly be creeping up there with anything outside of those guys.

 

[Nick Hansen]

I kinda wonder how we will rank Draisatl at the end of the day. Because he is building a legacy of his own that is very impressive, you often think of him as a playmaker but he's actually even greater at scoring goals which I find fascinating - four times top-4 in goals as apposed to three times top-10 in assists so far:

Leon Draisaitl Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Leon Draisaitl. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[authentic]

I kinda wonder how we will rank Draisatl at the end of the day. Because he is building a legacy of his own that is very impressive, you often think of him as a playmaker but he's actually even greater at scoring goals which I find fascinating - four times top-4 in goals as apposed to three times top-10 in assists so far:

Leon Draisaitl Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Leon Draisaitl. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Largely thanks to McDavid. If you watch Draisaitl his playmaking ability stands out a lot more than his goal scoring, especially at even strength.

 

[daver]

I kinda wonder how we will rank Draisatl at the end of the day. Because he is building a legacy of his own that is very impressive, you often think of him as a playmaker but he's actually even greater at scoring goals which I find fascinating - four times top-4 in goals as apposed to three times top-10 in assists so far:

Leon Draisaitl Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Leon Draisaitl. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

The Catch 22 for Draisaitl is you cannot separate his building his legacy being tied into McDavid's. I am sure that their point shares are pacing to be the most in NHL history behind Gretzky/Kurri.

In a vacuum, Drai's #'s point to him arguably being the #2 player in the post Crosby/OV era. Kucherov being the other best #2 candidate (Mac/Matthews/and Crosby still) being close behind).

I think he is closer to Kurri (maybe not as low) than a Bossy or Stevie Y level player i.e. a Top 5ish level talent in his prime and Top 50 to 75 all-time.

 

[plusandminus]

I think McDavid's accomplishments as a goal scorer this season may have been a little overlooked.
McDavid has 32 goals in 38 games. That projects to 69 goals in 82 games, which no one has done since Mario did it in 1995-96. Ovechkin's best is 65 goals, and many consider him to be the perhaps greatest goal scorer ever.

Of course, the numbers may go down as the season progress (as is often the case with extreme results). But I think the trend is that McDavid is rather becoming more and more prolific in goal scoring. I think I read something about him going more for the goals this season.

So... We may be witnessing a player that might some day even score 50 goals in 50 games, or 82 goals in 82 games. Possibly even break Gretzky's seasonal record of 92 goals.

Hockey is very much about balance. Players balance between offensive focus and defensive focus, scoring themselves or setting up others, and so on. McDavid's current balancing might not necessarily be the best for his team. But if McDavid would focus on goal scoring, he may very well be a strong candidate for 70+ goal seasons. Of course his speed advantage may within a few years start to decline, but on the other hand Ovechkin (a different kind of player, but anyway) continued to score a lot of goals.

And again, since someone might want to repeat the obvious, Extreme numbers will often become more "average" over time. So a good start of a season doesn't have to lead to the player continuing on that pace for the rest of the season. "Everyone" knows that.

It will be interesting to see how many goals McDavid scores. 18 goals in the next 12 games (which is unlikely but not impossible) and we'll have 50 goals in 50 games.

 

[The Panther]

I can't find my old thread anymore on the "30-point month", wherein I listed every occasion in NHL history when a player scored 30 or more regular season points in one calendar month. However, Connor McDavid finally joined the club last month.

In December 2022, McDavid scored 31 points in 15 games. He thus became the second player since 1996 to do this, if memory serves. (And the first Oiler since Gretzky in March 1988. Gretzky did it 30 times; Kurri twice; now McDavid once.)

Can anyone find that thread so I can update it?

 

[bobholly39]

I think McDavid's accomplishments as a goal scorer this season may have been a little overlooked.
McDavid has 32 goals in 38 games. That projects to 69 goals in 82 games, which no one has done since Mario did it in 1995-96. Ovechkin's best is 65 goals, and many consider him to be the perhaps greatest goal scorer ever.

Of course, the numbers may go down as the season progress (as is often the case with extreme results). But I think the trend is that McDavid is rather becoming more and more prolific in goal scoring. I think I read something about him going more for the goals this season.

So... We may be witnessing a player that might some day even score 50 goals in 50 games, or 82 goals in 82 games. Possibly even break Gretzky's seasonal record of 92 goals.

Hockey is very much about balance. Players balance between offensive focus and defensive focus, scoring themselves or setting up others, and so on. McDavid's current balancing might not necessarily be the best for his team. But if McDavid would focus on goal scoring, he may very well be a strong candidate for 70+ goal seasons. Of course his speed advantage may within a few years start to decline, but on the other hand Ovechkin (a different kind of player, but anyway) continued to score a lot of goals.

And again, since someone might want to repeat the obvious, Extreme numbers will often become more "average" over time. So a good start of a season doesn't have to lead to the player continuing on that pace for the rest of the season. "Everyone" knows that.

It will be interesting to see how many goals McDavid scores. 18 goals in the next 12 games (which is unlikely but not impossible) and we'll have 50 goals in 50 games.

McDavid is having a historic season so far, but we're only halfway there (almost, not even halfway). It's still more likely he actually falls back and finishes around ~130 points than it is he sees it through to 150+ points.

33 goals in 39 games is really good of course, but how do you get from there to talk about 50 in 50, let alone 82 or even 92 in 82 lol. Such a huge gap. He'll never come close to either of those things, especially the last two.

I can't find my old thread anymore on the "30-point month", wherein I listed every occasion in NHL history when a player scored 30 or more regular season points in one calendar month. However, Connor McDavid finally joined the club last month.

In December 2022, McDavid scored 31 points in 15 games. He thus became the second player since 1996 to do this, if memory serves. (And the first Oiler since Gretzky in March 1988. Gretzky did it 30 times; Kurri twice; now McDavid once.)

Can anyone find that thread so I can update it?

Don't know about your thread, but here's a link to the top point producers per month:

Which Player Scored Most Points In A Month In NHL | StatMuse

Wayne Gretzky has collected the most points in a month, with 49 points in November 1983.

www.statmuse.com

Also - looks like Stamkos in 2022 set the record all-time for April, with 24 points (in only 8 games), which is pretty neat for him.

 

[VMBM]

Halfway through, and McDavid's still on pace - although barely... I'm starting to lean towards the 'very unlikely' scenario (I mean, if he happens to miss a few games, for example, that's basically it), but I'd still be surprised if he doesn't hit 140 points or at least very near it.

 

[VMBM]

So, congrats to McDavid; he went and did it. And there's still two games left. To score 9 more points and hit 160 is very unlikely (though obviously not impossible!), but is he likely to match or even go past Yzerman (155+)? Doesn't really matter, though... Different eras etc.

PS. Some posts in the thread didn't age very well! (My last one included)