I have serious concerns for next year (2023-24)

[notDatsyuk]

The old GM just made a massively impactful move for his new team with a roster that has a lot more restrictions and limitations than the one he left with a lot of flexibility built in. TFYM?

Massively impactful sure, but will it work out any better than the massively impactful Tavares move, or just as badly?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Zero control over Matthews, Marner or Tavares

Probably more than when Dubas was here.

 

[notDatsyuk]

most teams have 0 control over their stars... we are not in an ideal situation, but NMCs are not unique to our team... they are all over the NHL. Some teams have half a team with NTCs/NMCs.

According to Capfriendly, teams with their number of NTC, NMC, M-NMC:

Buffalo - 2
Arizona, Nashville, New Jersey - 3
Florida, San Jose - 4
Philadelphia, Vancouver - 5
Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado, Ottawa - 6
Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Winnipeg - 7
Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota - 8
Boston, Calgary, Carolina, NY Rangers, Washington - 9
Detroit, NY Islanders, St Louis, Tampa Bay - 10
Las Vegas - 11
Pittsburgh, Seattle - 13
Toronto - 14

 

[notDatsyuk]

I have some concerns about next year, but more for the following one, and less for the one after that.

I'm confident they will make the the playoffs, barring some pretty bad luck or management.

I have no confidence that they will win even a round in the playoffs, but I think they could win one or two, and will cheer fanatically until they are out.

I have very little confidence in Tavares at 2C, in Keefe at all and particularly in him figuring out that Tavares/Nylander doesn't work. But willing to be happily surprised on all counts.

I am fully confident that some posters will continue to believe (and worse, pontificate endlessly) that the team is great, we should have won every year for the past five (if not for luck/goalies/refs/league/fans), that Dubas did everything perfectly, and that nobody on the team is overpaid or underpaid by so much as a penny.

 

[ToDavid]

According to Capfriendly, teams with their number of NTC, NMC, M-NMC:

Buffalo - 2
Arizona, Nashville, New Jersey - 3
Florida, San Jose - 4
Philadelphia, Vancouver - 5
Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado, Ottawa - 6
Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Winnipeg - 7
Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota - 8
Boston, Calgary, Carolina, NY Rangers, Washington - 9
Detroit, NY Islanders, St Louis, Tampa Bay - 10
Las Vegas - 11
Pittsburgh, Seattle - 13
Toronto - 14

Not all trade protection is created equally. We have fewer full no-trades/no-moves than at least Pittsburgh, Tampa, St. Louis, and NYI.

 

[Arzak]

Not all trade protection is created equally. We have fewer full no-trades/no-moves than at least Pittsburgh, Tampa, St. Louis, and NYI.

We have the most expensive players and our core is on aligning NMCs, no one is topping it for years.

 

[leafs in five]

According to Capfriendly, teams with their number of NTC, NMC, M-NMC:

Buffalo - 2
Arizona, Nashville, New Jersey - 3
Florida, San Jose - 4
Philadelphia, Vancouver - 5
Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado, Ottawa - 6
Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Winnipeg - 7
Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota - 8
Boston, Calgary, Carolina, NY Rangers, Washington - 9
Detroit, NY Islanders, St Louis, Tampa Bay - 10
Las Vegas - 11
Pittsburgh, Seattle - 13
Toronto - 14

idk I prefer being on the Vegas/Seattle end then the Philly/Vancouver one

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Something I beleive that is not exactly what you are saying, but I can relate to your point of view:

Enjoying a season in most sports comes down to 2 things:

1.) You win the championship
2.) you exceed 'expecations'

The tough part for the Leafs right now is the expectations with most fans are that they are 'good enough' in terms of talent to make/win the cup. So #2 is a tough thing to acheive anymore. They are in a 'win the cup or bust' mode and that is tough for many fans.

Right now it is more 'fun' to be a fan of a team like the Devlis, Sens, Sabres. Are they as good as the leafs? no (well, we might have a discussion about the Devils this year), but they are all coming off bad stretches and improving.

Once you get close to the 'mountain peak' of a championship level team but you don't acheive it, being a fan can become a game of 'beating expections' and that, honestly, is not that fun when expectations are so high.

The days of a loss being followed by "It's ok, they are young, they are getting better".....those days are replaced by dread and worry after many losses, and even angst and anxiety after a 'too close' of a win vs an 'inferior team'.

Not everyone is like that, but from reading the forums, many people are like that (more than we probably want to admit). The ultimate goal is winning the cup, and this team is closer to that than they were 3, 4, and 5 years ago. BUT, it was almost more fun to be a FAN of this team 3-5 years ago when the trajectory was up and there were less expectations.

Don't have to look any farther than across the Lake to Buffalo. Bills fans are filled with a lot more of that same angst and anxiety and the seaons are less 'fun' than they were 2-3 years ago, and on the other side of it, Buffalo Fans are much more excited and having fun with the Sabres, who aren't that good yet but finally seem to be clearly 'on the way up'.

I agree with all of this and that the Leafs are in "Cup or bust" territory, but I also think the constant first round exits have really f***ed with our psyche and the perception of the team. I look at teams like Carolina, Edmonton, and Dallas and think that Toronto should be considered in the same tier. What the three aforementioned teams have over Toronto however are a few deep playoff runs in recent years to show that they have the potential to go the distance. Obviously it sucks to be a considered a contender and not win, but it's not hard to fathom a world where any of these teams could lift the Cup in the next three seasons. Their cores are in their primes, they've had decent playoff success, and they've got the pedigree of being great regular season teams to go along with those runs (save Dallas, who's been pretty up and down in that regard).

The Leafs because of their own playoff futility can't truly enjoy that status as a contender who could break through at any moment. One playoff series win in 7 seasons with this core isn't enough to convince anyone that they're capable of rattling of 4 series wins in a row to hoist Lord Stanley. That's not to say the Leafs won't ever break through but it's difficult to imagine when all this core has done in the second season is faceplant.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not all trade protection is created equally. We have fewer full no-trades/no-moves than at least Pittsburgh, Tampa, St. Louis, and NYI.

Yep. We only have 5 with full trade protections, and one of those is on the 1-year Bertuzzi deal we just signed. Everybody else is 10 team or less.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

You either get to be in the parade or you get to watch it.

What side of the fence you are on is up to you.

The OP has a very good point. It's probably a smart idea to keep expectations low. It's less disappointing to think the team is gonna miss the playoffs.

Then be happily surprised when they go out in the first round again instead.

I, for one, am sick of the losing. I'm sick of the excuses. I'm sick of incompetent management.

And I'm sick of watching while my favorite team continues to remain an embarassing failure every spring.

Everyone on this site should be. Anyone who call themselves a fan of this team should be. If they fail again the fans need to take a stand and run these guys out of town.

A tar and feathering is just as much fun as a parade.

 

[ACC1224]

Not all trade protection is created equally. We have fewer full no-trades/no-moves than at least Pittsburgh, Tampa, St. Louis, and NYI.

The important distinction is the price of the ones you can’t move.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The important distinction is the price of the ones you can’t move.

Not really. The important distinction is what it's actually preventing. A 5m player that's not worth his contract and you want to move having a NMC is a lot worse for a team than a 10m player that's worth his contract and you want to keep having a NMC.

 

[notbias]

According to Capfriendly, teams with their number of NTC, NMC, M-NMC:

Buffalo - 2
Arizona, Nashville, New Jersey - 3
Florida, San Jose - 4
Philadelphia, Vancouver - 5
Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado, Ottawa - 6
Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Winnipeg - 7
Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota - 8
Boston, Calgary, Carolina, NY Rangers, Washington - 9
Detroit, NY Islanders, St Louis, Tampa Bay - 10
Las Vegas - 11
Pittsburgh, Seattle - 13
Toronto - 14

2 of those were inherited via trades (1 on LTIR)

4 of those were signed this offseason

1 on LTIR (plus the one mentioned above)

Honestly surprised we have so many, didn't realize all of Domi, Bertuzzi, Kampf, and Klingberg were given one.

The important distinction is the price of the ones you can’t move.

No, the important distinction is how bad the contract is.

For example, Bobrovsky, JT Miller, Jones, Skinner, Fluery, Hubeardeau, Kadri, and Nurse are all worse than anything we have.

 

[Racer88]

Probably more than when Dubas was here.

Possibly because he might push back on them a bit instead of just bending over

 

[Nineteen67]

According to Capfriendly, teams with their number of NTC, NMC, M-NMC:

Buffalo - 2
Arizona, Nashville, New Jersey - 3
Florida, San Jose - 4
Philadelphia, Vancouver - 5
Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado, Ottawa - 6
Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Winnipeg - 7
Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota - 8
Boston, Calgary, Carolina, NY Rangers, Washington - 9
Detroit, NY Islanders, St Louis, Tampa Bay - 10
Las Vegas - 11
Pittsburgh, Seattle - 13
Toronto - 14

The trade clauses are a great way to entice players to take their overpayments in lump sum July bonuses versus tradition bi-weekly cheques.

 

[Strangle]

You made a very specific claim about the relative on-ice values of those players, one that should have been very clearly wrong to anyone looking seriously at those players at the time. Angry 90s Leafs fans need not apply.
I however, said no such thing about whether you could win a deal by trading away one of your key players. I didn't say that because I can't read other GM's minds, and I have no idea whether one of them wants to give the Leafs a player who is younger, bigger, healthier, better defensively, and scores more than the player they'd be trading away. If such a deal is on the table, they should by all means do it, even if the deal also makes me sad for whatever reason.

Edit: Ironically, your point works well for Quebec's side of the deal, not the Leafs. They took a bath on the two headliner players, but in Clark they got a guy who supposedly had a positive effect on some of the other talent in the organization, and also got such a steep upgrade on defense that they were able to win a cup with that guy on the top pair, while the other guy was out of the league after one season. To your point, it is possible to trade a Sundin-like talent at a loss and still benefit from it.

That’s all I’m trying to say

 

[Notsince67]

According to Capfriendly, teams with their number of NTC, NMC, M-NMC:

Buffalo - 2
Arizona, Nashville, New Jersey - 3
Florida, San Jose - 4
Philadelphia, Vancouver - 5
Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado, Ottawa - 6
Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Winnipeg - 7
Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota - 8
Boston, Calgary, Carolina, NY Rangers, Washington - 9
Detroit, NY Islanders, St Louis, Tampa Bay - 10
Las Vegas - 11
Pittsburgh, Seattle - 13
Toronto - 14

Specious comparison.
2 of leafs clauses are on LTIR.
3 are signed for 1 year and are new.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not all trade protection is created equally. We have fewer full no-trades/no-moves than at least Pittsburgh, Tampa, St. Louis, and NYI.

I was just responding to a post about sheer numbers.

Islanders have 6 full NMCs, for a total of $33.6M next year. Leafs have 5 for a total of $46.5M.

 

[Strangle]

Absolutely. It's the cycle around here.
1. People see highlight packages of "tough" guys on other teams hitting, fighting, etc.
2. People overestimate how often these events actually happen, and think that they'd be a nonstop wrecking ball that answers every tiny hit and facewash.
3. They come here and play like they always have - which is not that.
4. When it doesn't live up to expectations, blame the GM and coach and core that must be forcing them to play differently.

I can trace this feeling back to game 2 against Boston back in like 2017. The team fought back physically but they got their asses kicked all over the ice and it ended with Kadri taking a suspension.

So I don’t necessarily blame the team or the coaches, I think the team has been constructed to trust their power play and that the refs will call penalties properly.

I blame the refs.

But maybe now we won’t build a team to play soft and trust the NHL’s system of penalty calling, and we won’t coach them that way either.

And maybe we will have success

 

[Martin Skoula]

What has Tie ever won? Why his upbringing?

If World Juniors are the requirement, Tavares should be much more of an influence.

Nic Petan should have helped us from the same U20 team...

I think that was a typo, Tie did a whole lot of whining and Max continues that proud tradition.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not really. The important distinction is what it's actually preventing. A 5m player that's not worth his contract and you want to move having a NMC is a lot worse for a team than a 10m player that's worth his contract and you want to keep having a NMC.

Exactly, and we have two players on $11M contracts that aren't worth the contracts, and we should be moving one if not both, but can't.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Specious comparison.
2 of leafs clauses are on LTIR.
3 are signed for 1 year and are new.

Just replying to a post about sheer numbers. Yes we have two on LTIR, but several teams have one or more, and one team has three, if I recall correctly.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I am fully confident that some posters will continue to believe (and worse, pontificate endlessly) that the team is great, we should have won every year for the past five (if not for luck/goalies/refs/league/fans), that Dubas did everything perfectly, and that nobody on the team is overpaid or underpaid by so much as a penny.

IIRC, someone shared a link showing Marner is worth 16 million.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

IIRC, someone shared a link showing Marner is worth 16 million.

That person is wrong.

I love Marner but no he's not

 

[TimeZone]

On paper they're easily a top 5, if not top 3 team.

I have zero doubts they have a very good regular season, I have serious doubts they play for the cup in June.