OT: I Am Not Feeling Excited For Next Year

[OD99]

I think they have a really solid coaching staff as well. Still have a pit in my stomach for time lost in emphasis on play without the puck for too long. Still I think this group coupled with the addition of some solid vets will help get this ship turned all the way around... We'll see how long it takes them to gel. Special teams clicking early could help with a quick start.

Staios did a pretty good job given what he was left to work with. Depth is the only concern for me but if they stay healthy for the most part that may not be such a factor.

Absolutely, I can't believe I forgot to add coaching and special teams.

When we think about how many less goals we would have given up with league average goaltending (I know, the team D has to take some accountability for shoddy save %) then just starting there we can see what a massive improvement is possible with a few other area improving.

 

[Big Muddy]

I'm ready for a significantly better year, and believe we will make the playoffs.

We have a lot of possibilities for big gains.

1. In net (Obviously from Ulmark but also a better season from Forsberg)
2. D Corps (more well rounded, progression from Sanderson and JBD, potential of Kleven)
3. Pinto for a full season
4. Healthy Timmy back
5. Norris back (question marks but I remain bullish)
6. Greig taking a step.
7. Batherson repeating or improving on last season.
8. More speed and depth in bottom 6.

They may not all pan out, but the upside is huge if many of them do.

Well, if you look back at last year, there’s lots of room for improvement for sure.

I hope the things you mentioned and that we tend to talk about come to fruition.

I guess I was just trying to make the point that if this team is as good as we think they are, and if it was just goaltending that held us back, then just squeaking into the playoffs seems like a pretty low bar to set.

 

[OD99]

Well, if you look back at last year, there’s lots of room for improvement for sure.

I hope the things you mentioned and that we tend to talk about come to fruition.

I guess I was just trying to make the point that if this team is as good as we think they are, and if it was just goaltending that held us back, then just squeaking into the playoffs seems like a pretty low bar to set.

I agree! Just supporting your thought with some items that can see us make a real jump.

 

[LiseL]

If the belief is that the team is pretty decent or good, but it was just goaltending that held us back, then I’d say the objective should be more than just squeaking into the playoffs. You’ll hear the words “good young team” and “good core” in here quite frequently.

Yet, from what I gather from past discussion on this topic is that many/most believe that squeaking into the playoffs would be a good/decent achievement this year.

I’m sensing some incongruent thinking here. Maybe the modest goal setting (just squeaking into the playoffs) is based on a belief that more than better goaltending is required even if that thinking is seldom vocalized? That’s kind of the way I’m leaning, but part of it is that I’d like to do more than just squeak into the playoffs and then kind of bow out quickly after that. If we have a good group of players and core, and if was just goaltending that held us back and that improves, then I’m primed for a significantly better year.

I recall many posters said the main issues were goaltending, D coverage, roster construction, coaching (DJ Smith). Other issues brought up were injuries, cheating for offense and not always competing. I don't recall too many saying that changing the goaltending fixes everything.

 

[Cosmix]

When I look at the changes made from the start of last season I see only one major positive change: goaltending.

Norris' injury is still a major concern.
Jensen for Chychrun is a concern too because what we gain in defensive play, we lose in offensive play.
Gregor for Kelly is at best a wash but might not be positive.
Perron for Tarasenko does not look like a positive to me.
Amadio for Kubalic looks like a small positive change.
Losing Joseph for nothing is a negative.
We still need a 4th line C.
Coaching is a question mark.

 

[kilroy]

When I look at the changes made from the start of last season I see only one major positive change: goaltending.

Norris' injury is still a major concern.
Jensen for Chychrun is a concern too because what we gain in defensive play, we lose in offensive play.
Gregor for Kelly is at best a wash but might not be positive.
Perron for Tarasenko does not look like a positive to me.
Amadio for Kubalic looks like a small positive change.
Losing Joseph for nothing is a negative.
We still need a 4th line C.
Coaching is a question mark.

Amadio is a huge upgrade to Kubalik, who was a black hole in the lineup all season.

4th line C will likely come from within or a vet on a PTO. Don't expect much.

In the end, everything you've listed is mostly irrelevant. The entire season rests solely on Ullmark's performance, and the franchise's future rests on the team's ability to extend him.

 

[Micklebot]

People talk about the need to get off to a quick start, so I figured, maybe framing our roster as compared to what we iced to start last season.

So, our most common roster prior to american thanksgiving was:

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Tarasenko-Norris-Batherson
Kubalik-Greig-Joseph
Kelly-Chartier-Kastelic

Chabot*-Chychrun
Sanderson Zub*
JBD-Hamonic

*Chabot and Zub missed half that time to injuries, so JBD and Brannstrom actually played more than them,

Ok, so assuming no injuries in Training camp (I know that's not a safe assumption) we should be doing the following:

Up Front:

Kubalic becomes Pinto --> Huge improvement
Tarasenko becomes Perron --> I'd say Tank is a better player, but Perron could fit the role better.
Joseph becomes Amadio --> I think its a minor improvement, but we'll call it a wash
Kelly becomes Gregor --> I think it's a minor improvement, but lets say wash
Kastelic becomes Ostapchuk --> bit of an unknown so lets say wash
Chartier becomes MacEwen --> Wash.

On D:

Chychrun to Jensen --> in a bubble, Chychrun should be the better player, but Jensen is a way better fit.
Hamonic to Kleven --> Bit of an unknown but I think Kleven will be better

On G

Korpisalo to Ullmark --> ... ... .. .. . uh, ya, that an upgrade.

Two huge improvements, in Pinto, and Ullmark, after that, it's up for debate. I do think the balance of having Jensen instead of Chychrun will be big, and make us less reliant on Zub being healthy for our D.

 

[Micklebot]

Norris' injury is still a major concern.

I don't think Norris' injury is any more of a concern than it was last year, to me that's the worst case scenario for him. I personally think it's more likely that he'll be better than year than worse (we know last years surgery was unsuccessful, so whatever the probability of this year's surgery being successful is, would be the probability of a better season from him), so I see it as an area of opportunity for improvement in the same sense that Stutzle should be better given the news he was dealing with a wrist injury all year.

 

[Big Muddy]

I recall many posters said the main issues were goaltending, D coverage, roster construction, coaching (DJ Smith). Other issues brought up were injuries, cheating for offense and not always competing. I don't recall too many saying that changing the goaltending fixes everything.

Maybe describing goaltending as the only major issue would have been a better way of expressing this.

I think its safe to say that goaltending was the thing that was discussed the most and pretty much the sole focus for some posters.

We talked about having a good young core, good forwards, and a better defense with the Chychrun. These were the off season sentiments & discussions during last summer/early fall and its the important context that is framing this discussion.

The other point which didn’t get picked up on is why are expectations so low with all these improvements that we believe have been made and especially with addressing the major weakness in nets? From a regular season perspective, just squeaking into the playoffs makes us an average, mid pack team. There seems to be a mismatch between our expectations for the team from a standings perspective and how positive we are about the players.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think Amadio will prove to be an upgrade on Joseph. He's scored goals at a much higher pace per 82 the last 3 years and should bring a more jam than Joseph. He exceeded his pace by a fair bit on the cup run too, which I think is a good sign as a guy capable of raising his game when it's needed. Hopefully he doesn't disappear for long stretches like Joseph.

Ullmark being an upgrade on the worst starter in the league can't be overstated. We're not just upgrading, we're moving from the league worst "starting" goaltender with 3 decent seasons out of 9 obviously overpaid and miscast after an outlier season to a guy that basically hasn't had a down year his whole career. Being skeptical is one thing, but these guys are not equals. Hopefully Forsberg can perform better with being firmly in the #2 role and a fresh start. It's not a tandem of 2 incapable starters anymore, it's a starter and a backup. I felt this was priority 1 this off-season and SS agreed, so I'm happy to see him know it was the most important thing to not just run it back with non solutions.

Pinto, Jensen, Kleven & Perron will change the chemistry in a positive way imo. Guys like Gregor and Ostapchuk will hopefully help do the same, but we'll see. I also think they've done a decent job getting more pros and investing in Belleville should injuries hit. And they have a little cap space should they like a guy on waivers after camp or looking to make a move in season. SS did about as well as we could expect imo considering none of the RD UFA targets were interested.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I am excited for next year, because either we will be good and finally get some meaningful games - or we will be bad and it will be absolute chaos in terms of what they have to do off the ice to manage the situation.

Obviously, I want us to finally pull together and prove this core can be great. Then the whole "remember when that Devils blogger proposed Brady Tkachuk for Kevin Bahl and a 2nd" will be this generation's Alfie for Conroy. I'm just saying that we have clearly crossed a rubicon where there will be no more excuses or spinning our tires. The stay of execution is over. If they don't make the playoffs this year, this core is off to the electric chair. By that, I mean Brady will be traded to Tampa.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Maybe describing goaltending as the only major issue would have been a better way of expressing this.

I think its safe to say that goaltending was the thing that was discussed the most and pretty much the sole focus for some posters.

We talked about having a good young core, good forwards, and a better defense with the Chychrun. These were the off season sentiments & discussions during last summer/early fall and its the important context that is framing this discussion.

The other point which didn’t get picked up on is why are expectations so low with all these improvements that we believe have been made and especially with addressing the major weakness in nets? From a regular season perspective, just squeaking into the playoffs makes us an average, mid pack team. There seems to be a mismatch between our expectations for the team from a standings perspective and how positive we are about the players.

not sure if you are serious

 

[OD99]

I don't think Norris' injury is any more of a concern than it was last year, to me that's the worst case scenario for him. I personally think it's more likely that he'll be better than year than worse (we know last years surgery was unsuccessful, so whatever the probability of this year's surgery being successful is, would be the probability of a better season from him), so I see it as an area of opportunity for improvement in the same sense that Stutzle should be better given the news he was dealing with a wrist injury all year.

I am already putting Norris in the positive category.

If he shows up and is unable to practice and seems tentative, then I will worry. If he says he feels good and the shoulder is better than last year, then I think we see a different player.

I also think we should keep him at C, especially if he comes back without limitations. 3 strong lines with that depth in the middle would be great to finally see together for a while.

 

[LiseL]

Maybe describing goaltending as the only major issue would have been a better way of expressing this.

I think its safe to say that goaltending was the thing that was discussed the most and pretty much the sole focus for some posters.

We talked about having a good young core, good forwards, and a better defense with the Chychrun. These were the off season sentiments & discussions during last summer/early fall and its the important context that is framing this discussion.

The other point which didn’t get picked up on is why are expectations so low with all these improvements that we believe have been made and especially with addressing the major weakness in nets? From a regular season perspective, just squeaking into the playoffs makes us an average, mid pack team. There seems to be a mismatch between our expectations for the team from a standings perspective and how positive we are about the players.

Until we see how long it takes for the new players to gel and play under a different coaching style as well being relatively healthy, it's hard to assess where this team will be by season's end. The western road trips will tell us a lot as those have been one of their biggest hurdles. They did pretty well against divisional rivals. I also think many of us are now cautiously optimistic, we'll believe it when we see it.

 

[bicboi64]

Two huge improvements, in Pinto, and Ullmark, after that, it's up for debate. I do think the balance of having Jensen instead of Chychrun will be big, and make us less reliant on Zub being healthy for our D.

The reason I have cautious optimism, is because we have two objective upgrades and everything else indicates our roster has players that are a better fit for the whole team (Jensen).

 

[Yak]

We have had much more exciting seasons because of the chaos and we were starved for so long.

Dorian was grasping at straws and it seemed exciting because of the big swing for the fences that he was making.

Now we are making cold calculated decisions based on needs and not knee-jerk reactions. This team is in a better position now than it ever has been. It's not glamorous but it's going to get the job done. That's why people are feeling kind of non-excited about it. It's a stabilizing roster. No one's going to get crazy about our chances, but we've also solidified some solid players into our lineup.

Hands down. I will guarantee we will finish better than we have in 7 years. I know that doesn't say a lot, but we're going to be closer to a playoff spot this year than ever before. We will be chasing a playoff spot or getting in the playoffs with this roster.

The defense is still suspect. Players that we have need to step up now. Otherwise we're going to have to retool it on the fly. It cost a lot of money to fix a defense. We have a lot of money tied up in the guys we already have. We can't go siding. Big name free agent contracts to fill holes on our defense. I am going to be pointing my finger at Chabby If he falters this year. He needs to live up to his contract. Eating a lot of minutes does not equate to solid defensive play. I don't care if he puts the puck in the net. I need him to keep the puck out of our net. He now has a decent goaltender and no excuses for not being the leader on our defense.

I am glad we cleaned house on our fourth line. That line needed to bring energy and create opportunities and being difficult to play against. The only thing they were were difficult to watch. They all had their own skill but it seems like they only brought it 25% of the time.

The forward group last year just got into a weird funk. I think we have a better group of forwards going into this year. I think we need to set realistic expectations of Norris and that if we can just get him out there playing his game. Eventually his game will come back. Time and wraps are what he needs. He's been away from the game so long and if you look at his actual games played in his career so far he still has a lot of mileage left if he can get past this shoulder injury. It mean for him to play a little softer and be careful how he plays. I am fine with that because I know this guy bury the puck and I don't mind him being our sniper and letting off the physical play. We just need him healthy.

I want to see Timmy bring it this year. Last year he seemed lost. I don't know what was going on with him but he was not involved in the play enough. He is too dynamic not to have the puck on his stick all the time or be creating plays. Giroux Is a great player in his own right and we need his guidance in the room more than anything. I don't care what he brings on the ice because I know he's going to give 110% effort. It's those small things and details. And the old vet on the team that needs to rub off on these young guys now. He's been around long enough that he should almost be like a coach. I hope when his playing days are over he stays with the organization as a coach.

Everyone else I think they just play the way that they play with a little less pressure and go out and have fun and the wins are going to come. I don't have playoff expectations but have playoff admirations. The team's ready to turn the corner and has been for a while. I think we're there. We'll see how season plays out and I won't let the first month determine the rest of our season either.

 

[bashbros32]

I'm ready for a significantly better year, and believe we will make the playoffs.

We have a lot of possibilities for big gains.

1. In net (Obviously from Ulmark but also a better season from Forsberg)
2. D Corps (more well rounded, progression from Sanderson and JBD, potential of Kleven)
3. Pinto for a full season
4. Healthy Timmy back
5. Norris back (question marks but I remain bullish)
6. Greig taking a step.
7. Batherson repeating or improving on last season.
8. More speed and depth in bottom 6.

They may not all pan out, but the upside is huge if many of them do.

I think for this year in particular we are lined up for big gains... I think the issue comes after this year...

Ideally, each team needs an above average top 6 F and top 4 D while also having super solid depth to round it out... as of now I see us missing 2 top 6 F and 1 D after 24/25...

Tkachuk - Stutzle - X
X - Norris - Batherson
Perron - Pinto - Greig
Amadio - X - X

Sanderson - X
Chabot - Zub
Kleven - Jensen

If Giroux comes back at a discount and continues to perform? great... If Norris transitions to the wing, Pinto moves up and Greig establishes himself as a competent 3C? Great! its just once injuries happen, or Giroux leaves, this team is still lacking... having nothing to show for top 10 selections in 2021-2022-2023 is really hurting us...

 

[DueDiligence]

When I look at the changes made from the start of last season I see only one major positive change: goaltending.

Norris' injury is still a major concern.
Jensen for Chychrun is a concern too because what we gain in defensive play, we lose in offensive play.
Gregor for Kelly is at best a wash but might not be positive.
Perron for Tarasenko does not look like a positive to me.
Amadio for Kubalic looks like a small positive change.
Losing Joseph for nothing is a negative.
We still need a 4th line C.
Coaching is a question mark.

Well I guess you are a glass half empty sort of guy. If you look at what you said objectively then things look better. For example :

1) Norris should be reasonably healthy for 60 plus games and he will score 20 plus goals.
2) Jensen for Chychrun is a significant upgrade. Regardless of the offense he provided JC was just awful defensively last year and Jensen 's net overall impact on both ends will be far greater.
3) Having Pinto for a full season is a huge upgrade.
4) Amadio is a significant upgrade on Kubalic.
5) Timmy S will be healthy this year.
6) Green will get these guys working harder and smarter than DJ ever did.

And the goaltending change alone is probably worth at least 10 points in the standings. When the team has confidence in their goalie and not always playing catch-up they will play far better overall.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I’m def less excited than years past. But as usual I’ll be there

 

[ottawagm]

The team has let us down for years and excitement has got us no where.

I think we'll be better than last year, but we'll see how it goes.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Perron for Tarasenko isn't a bad swap. We lose Tank's shot but Perron will be more physical and tougher to play against. Same with the Chychrun for Jensen and Joseph for Amadio swap. It's the common theme of our off season. We give up offense for players who are better defenders and who bring toughness. Hopefully the formula works.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Seems like a fair amount of people are excited and are quite positive about this upcoming season.

So, do posters think we’ll get more than 92 points? For reference, 15 teams had more than 92 points last year.

Another question: Does anybody think we’ll get 100 points or more? For reference, 10 teams had 100 or more points last year.

 

[bicboi64]

Seems like a fair amount of people are excited and are quite positive about this upcoming season.

So, do posters think we’ll get more than 92 points? For reference, 15 teams had more than 92 points last year.

Another question: Does anybody think we’ll get 100 points or more? For reference, 10 teams had 100 or more points last year.

I think 92-95 is what we'll end up with. Having Ullmark alone (even if he's not playing at Vezina calibre), will give us better goaltending. If that translates to 5-6 more wins, that's a 10-12 point jump.

Pinto back and Stu rebounding after a poor shooting year might results in a few more wins so I think we can definitely hit 95 points.

I think 100 points is out of the question unless Ullmark plays lights out and than Chabot returns to 55pt form while all of the new roster additions play good off the mark/

 

[Micklebot]

I think 92-95 is what we'll end up with. Having Ullmark alone (even if he's not playing at Vezina calibre), will give us better goaltending. If that translates to 5-6 more wins, that's a 10-12 point jump.

Pinto back and Stu rebounding after a poor shooting year might results in a few more wins so I think we can definitely hit 95 points.

I think 100 points is out of the question unless Ullmark plays lights out and than Chabot returns to 55pt form while all of the new roster additions play good off the mark/

Ok, so a lot of our comps have been base on last season, but lets look at two seasons ago;

Top lines:
Tkachuk-Stu-Giroux vs Tkachuk-Stu-Giroux
Should be about the same, Giroux may have regressed, but Stu and Tkachuk should be improved

2nd Line
Debrincat-Pinto (rookie)-Batherson(recovering from High ankle sprain) vs Greig-Norris-Batherson
Debrincat didn't want to be here, and Batherson was a shell of himself. Norris should be an improvement over Rookie Pinto, Batherson should be much better as he's healthy, and Greig will give a damn on both sides of the ice,

3rd line
Motte-Brassard-Joseph vs Perron-Pinto-Amadio
Huge improvement. Perron is way better than Motte, Pinto is lightyears ahead of Brassard, Amadio and Joseph bring different qualities but similar impact

4th line
Kelly-Gambrell/Kastelic-Watsson vs Gregor-Ostapchuk-MacEwen
Kelly vs Gregor, I prefer Gregor, Watson over MacEwen though. I'll call it a wash but I think the current group has a bit of an edge.

Top Pair
Chabot-Zub vs Sanderson-Zub
Big upgrade imo, Sanderson has been lights out good.

2nd Pair
Rookie Sanderson-Hamonic vs Chabot-Jensen
Chabot is at least on par with rookie Sanderson, Jensen should be better than Hamonic. Again improved.

3rd Pair
Brannstrom-Holden (old man version) vs Kleven-JBD
I think this is where the 2022-23 iteration might have an edge because Kleven is an unkown, but I am really high on Kleven so I could see this being another big improvement.

Starter
Talbot vs Ullmark
Talbot got more heat than deserved, but Ullmark should be much better

Backup
Forsberg vs Forsberg
Draw? Forsberg was pretty good before the double MCL injury, was last year him recovering or did he regress? Could be a downgrade .


So, that 2022-23 team got 86 pts, and on paper we're much improved, especially with the depth at center. We also look more well rounded, and have a much better 3rd line.

 

[Xspyrit]

Well I guess you are a glass half empty sort of guy. If you look at what you said objectively then things look better. For example :

1) Norris should be reasonably healthy for 60 plus games and he will score 20 plus goals.
2) Jensen for Chychrun is a significant upgrade. Regardless of the offense he provided JC was just awful defensively last year and Jensen 's net overall impact on both ends will be far greater.
3) Having Pinto for a full season is a huge upgrade.
4) Amadio is a significant upgrade on Kubalic.
5) Timmy S will be healthy this year.
6) Green will get these guys working harder and smarter than DJ ever did.

And the goaltending change alone is probably worth at least 10 points in the standings. When the team has confidence in their goalie and not always playing catch-up they will play far better overall.

More objective would be this I think :

1) Far from a guarantee as he didn't for 2 straight seasons. The 20 goals too are not guaranteed as he scored 16 goals in 50 games last year. I am hoping he plays all 82 games, we need to become more lucky in the health department.

2) Chychrun scored 41 pts last season, Jensen only 14. We gotta hope that Jensen major analytical/play drop last season was just a bump on the road and he'll get back to being a solid 2nd pairing defensive D-man (see link at the end of this post)

3) Yeah if he stays healthy and even continues improving, it could be a major factor.

4) On Kubalik yes but we lost Mathieu Joseph too

5) Hopefully! We absolutely need him to be back at least at 2022-23 level. Fingers crossed, like I said we need to become more lucky in the health department.

6) This is crucial, Green doesn't have a great track record but hopefully he has this group working the RIGHT WAY. If it doesn't work out, we're pretty much screwed with this rebuild and will have to go in at least a major retool


Article on Jensen :

2023-24 Rink Wrap: Nick Jensen

Washington Capitals 2023-24 season player review for Nick Jensen, with a look ahead to 2024-25 and beyond.

www.japersrink.com

Perron for Tarasenko isn't a bad swap. We lose Tank's shot but Perron will be more physical and tougher to play against. Same with the Chychrun for Jensen and Joseph for Amadio swap. It's the common theme of our off season. We give up offense for players who are better defenders and who bring toughness. Hopefully the formula works.

I have this hope too but I want to warn the board that it is not guaranteed, based on recent advanced stats, we might have downgraded defensively. Tarasenko and Chychrun were pretty bad analytically so it would be hard for Perron/Jensen to do worse but Joseph is a big loss. However, Amadio was solid all around the last 2 seasons so he might be able to replace him adequately. Too bad we "had to" trade Joseph, I was thinking we need to add MORE guys like him actually.