Hypothetical - does McDavid win the Conn Smythe even if Oilers lose the cup? Assuming he has an above average finals

[paracord]

Crosby and Tyler Kennedy scored the same amount of points that year in the finals.

Sidney Crosby led the playoffs in goals that year. He scored more than even the Smythe winner, Evgeni Malkin.

That's the year he had dueling hat tricks with Ovechkin in the semi-finals and equalled Ovi's 8 goals in 7 games in that series, including 2 goals in the decisive game 7.

Yeah in the finals Detroit had a hell of a defensive squad and keyed on Crosby big time, and he got hurt in game 7, but a prime Malkin was freed up to do his damage.

But without Crosby, they don't even make the finals.

 

[mr figgles]

I agree with this... if they win, my vote is Bob or Barkov in that order (but defer to Cats fans who've watched every series, I haven't).

And that would be unfortunate, since McDavid has literally put up a historic performance in this playoffs... objectively, taking a step back, depending on how you view the Conn Smyth, you can absolutely make the case that he should win...

But I'm one of those guys who thinks a player on the winner should get it. Centermen on the losing team don't get the same "Sympathy Vote" that we've seen in the past with the losing goalie (has there ever been a non-goalie win it from the losing squad?). I personally think there should be another trophy for such "honorable mention" players.

Having said all of that... it doesn't matter... Oilers are gonna win heh heh, so this debate is premature.

Reggie Leach won the trophy in 76 on a team that got swept in the finals. He set the record for playoff goals though. Maybe the assists record pushes McDavid over the top.

 

[bucks_oil]

Reggie Leach won the trophy in 76 on a team that got swept in the finals. He set the record for playoff goals though. Maybe the assists record pushes McDavid over the top.

Thanks for this... That's a pretty darn good comparator. And I'd be willing to bet the goals record Leach broke was not a 40 year old record held by the greatest player of all time.

I mean, I mentioned Florida deserving to have it's own Conn Smyth winner...

Argument 1: But imagine, telling some kids in 40 years that the record holder for assists and the guy who has the 5th all time best NHL playoff season DIDN'T get enough votes to win the Conn Smythe. Stepping back, that's sorta ridiculous and would make you wonder what biased people against the poor guy.

Argument 2: We had to share a Conn Smyth with Ron Hextall in 87/88. Does anyone really think his 0.908 SPCT & 2.78 GAA season was more worthy of remembering than McDavid's season today?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Reggie Leach won the trophy in 76 on a team that got swept in the finals. He set the record for playoff goals though. Maybe the assists record pushes McDavid over the top.

I posted this in the other thread, but Gretzky did that in 1983 (set the record for assists AND points) but still lost the Smythe because the Islanders beat them in the final.

Argument 1: But imagine, telling some kids in 40 years that the record holder for assists and the guy who has the 5th all time best NHL playoff season DIDN'T get enough votes to win the Conn Smythe. Stepping back, that's sorta ridiculous and would make you wonder what biased people against the poor guy.

You don't have to imagine, it happened to Gretzky in 1983.

 

[wetcoast]

I don't think that's the case, but finals is indeed often a huge influence on conn smythe. You might even say first 3 round count for ~50% and finals ~50%, or somewhere in that vicinity.

For what it's worth - I think going down 0-3 makes it more unlikely for McDavid to win the smythe in a losing cause. He definitely wasn't winning if they were swept, and I still don't think he wins it if they lose in 5. In my opinion - Oilers have to make it to at least game 6 (or 7) for McDavid to win in a losing cause. Obviously - if Oilers win the cup, he's the favorite by far for now too.

The thing is that we have lots of examples where the Conn Smythe winner is very clearly not the top player for the SC winning team in the playoffs.

I get that in almost every the Conn Smythe winner is from the SC winning team but it's also not every year that someone beats Gretzky's all time single season playoff record either.

As for the number of games played in the final Reggie Leach, the last non goalie non SC Conn Smythe winner only played in 4 games where his team got swept.

Also it would be one thing if BOB has a .930 save% but he has a really average .909.

But the voting isn't transparent so who knows what they will do this year.

 

[wetcoast]

The big difference is each of those players topping the scoring also led their clubs to the Cup. If the series was close there would be a case for McDavid to win the Conn Smythe.

Is it really a big difference or the only difference?

I mean the obvious difference is that the ones who won the SC obviously had way more support and the Conn Smythe trophy is for the most valuable player to his team for the playoffs.

Now obviously no one has won it with being in the finals but the case is much stronger for McDavid this year than for any other player right?

 

[wetcoast]

I posted this in the other thread, but Gretzky did that in 1983 (set the record for assists AND points) but still lost the Smythe because the Islanders beat them in the final.

Sure but there is a big difference here as well as in the final the Conn smythe winner, billy Smith had an unreal save % for that era with .953 and allowed only 6 goals in 4 games and also had an extremely high save % for the entire playoffs for the era with .913%.

Overall for the playoffs the next best non Oiler goalie had a .895% and this year Bob is 5th with .909 with 2 guys above him having .925+

Also Gretzky had 38 points that year and 2 guys from Boston that didn't even make the finals had 33 and 32 so the context is quite different.

You don't have to imagine, it happened to Gretzky in 1983.

The context was quite different as Billy Smith also had an extremely elite playoffs and stands out miles more than BOB's performance this year.

Don't get me wrong Barkov has a Conn Smythe worthy performance this year but McDavid's is simply much better.

If BOB wins it it will be seen as one of the weaker goalie Conn Smythes in history.

 

[theMajor]

The thing is that we have lots of examples where the Conn Smythe winner is very clearly not the top player for the SC winning team in the playoffs.

I get that in almost every the Conn Smythe winner is from the SC winning team but it's also not every year that someone beats Gretzky's all time single season playoff record either.

As for the number of games played in the final Reggie Leach, the last non goalie non SC Conn Smythe winner only played in 4 games where his team got swept.

Also it would be one thing if BOB has a .930 save% but he has a really average .909.

But the voting isn't transparent so who knows what they will do this year.

only 5 'losers' won the Conn Smythe, i dont honestly think that mcdavid breaking the assist record is enough if the oilers lose out (which is looking extremely likely).

 

[Czechboy]

38 points for McDavid.

21 points is the highest non Oiler ...barkov.

Since many feel McD carries bouch and drai to their lofty totals. Then a Conn Smythe argument can be made. He may end up doubling barkov in points before it's over. What he is doing is historic.

As mentioned prior... Bob is not top 3 for gaa or save percentage.

An argument could definitely be made ... Not saying he will or should but it's in the realm of reasonable.

 

[pi314]

only 5 'losers' won the Conn Smythe, i dont honestly think that mcdavid breaking the assist record is enough if the oilers lose out (which is looking extremely likely).

Especially when most of his damage was done before this series and in one game.

Nothing is impossible but I really, really doubt it goes to him.

 

[wetcoast]

Especially when most of his damage was done before this series and in one game.

Nothing is impossible but I really, really doubt it goes to him.

That's great but also true for most Conn Smythe winners right?

Also once again the Conn Smythe is for the entire playoffs, if one wants to discount a single game at least understand what the trophy is for and McDavid not only was the best playdriver in the 3 other games he also was in on 75% of the Oilers goals in those 3 games.

It would be one thing if he had played poorly but the opposite is true and one would think that the voters are watching.

 

[pi314]

That's great but also true for most Conn Smythe winners right?

Also once again the Conn Smythe is for the entire playoffs, if one wants to discount a single game at least understand what the trophy is for and McDavid not only was the best playdriver in the 3 other games he also was in on 75% of the Oilers goals in those 3 games.

It would be one thing if he had played poorly but the opposite is true and one would think that the voters are watching.

I have read from one voter that they give 50% weight to the first 3 rounds and 50% weight to the finals. They said most other voters see it the same way.

 

[theVladiator]

I posted this in the other thread, but Gretzky did that in 1983 (set the record for assists AND points) but still lost the Smythe because the Islanders beat them in the final.

You don't have to imagine, it happened to Gretzky in 1983.

In my opinion both goals and point total records are much higher profile that assists. However, I think if McDavid shatters the assist record (get somewhere 40-ish), I would imagine he gets at least serious consideration even if Oilers lose the series.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

In my opinion both goals and point total records are much higher profile that assists. However, I think if McDavid shatters the assist record (get somewhere 40-ish), I would imagine he gets at least serious consideration even if Oilers lose the series.

That would mean he probably breaks the point record as well, so I imagine he'd be the favorite.

 

[wetcoast]

I have read from one voter that they give 50% weight to the first 3 rounds and 50% weight to the finals. They said most other voters see it the same way.

Well if that's the case they would have McDavid very high on their ballot right?

I mean is anyone driving the okay more than him and having more of an impact?

All that being said I wonder why voters would do such a thing and are they consistent with that view?

Maybe some transparency like they finally have for regular season awards would help.

 

[bobholly39]

Well if that's the case they would have McDavid very high on their ballot right?

I mean is anyone driving the okay more than him and having more of an impact?

All that being said I wonder why voters would do such a thing and are they consistent with that view?

Maybe some transparency like they finally have for regular season awards would help.

How does the Conn Smythe voting work? Do voters each vote for top 3? If so, that could seriously advantage McDavid.

Say Oilers lose - many won't vote him #1. But I would guess a majority vote him #2. They'd say "ok Panthers won so Panther should win Smythe so I vote Bob or Barkov #1....but McDavid #2 because he was amazing".

So I could see Barkov/Bob splitting a lot of first place votes, and then McDavid getting majority of 2nd place votes and maybe a cpl of first place votes, and winning that way.

 

[Mr Positive]

One thing is clear: if McDavid doesn't win it, it's because Bettman hates Canada and wants the Sunbelt™ to win every cup. And the refs had something to do with it

 

[wetcoast]

How does the Conn Smythe voting work? Do voters each vote for top 3? If so, that could seriously advantage McDavid.

Say Oilers lose - many won't vote him #1. But I would guess a majority vote him #2. They'd say "ok Panthers won so Panther should win Smythe so I vote Bob or Barkov #1....but McDavid #2 because he was amazing".

So I could see Barkov/Bob splitting a lot of first place votes, and then McDavid getting majority of 2nd place votes and maybe a cpl of first place votes, and winning that way.

I honestly didn't exactly know so I asked my friend google and this explains it.

How Does Conn Smythe Trophy Voting Work in the NHL Playoffs? Winners & History

The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the best performer throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs.

www.si.com

Okay not really.

It seems like this that every memeber votes at the end for one player.

Every member votes to determine the best player in the postseason

How does Conn Smythe Trophy voting work?

The Conn Smythe Trophy is a prestigious award given to the best player in the Stanley Cup playoffs. How does the voting process work?

vegashockeyknight.com

and here is a better although dated article on it from 2011.

How the Conn Smythe voting shakes down

Unless he has a meltdown, it is hard to imagine any winner other than the Bruins' Tim Thomas

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[cupface52]

I posted this in the other thread, but Gretzky did that in 1983 (set the record for assists AND points) but still lost the Smythe because the Islanders beat them in the final.

You don't have to imagine, it happened to Gretzky in 1983.

Gretzky beat 2 records that were set a year, and two years earlier. Gretzky outscored Bossy by just 3 points and Middleton(didn't play in the SCF) by 5 points. The 4 round playoff format was only around for 4 years at this point.

McDavid has 11 more assists than Barkov has points, and 17 more points. The record McDavid just beat has been around for 40 years.

Billy Smith was by far the best goalie that year AINEC. There was multiple goalies better than Bob this year.

Don't see how the two years are comparable in the slightest.

 

[vipera1960]

I honestly didn't exactly know so I asked my friend google and this explains it.

How Does Conn Smythe Trophy Voting Work in the NHL Playoffs? Winners & History

The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the best performer throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs.

www.si.com

Okay not really.

It seems like this that every memeber votes at the end for one player.

How does Conn Smythe Trophy voting work?

The Conn Smythe Trophy is a prestigious award given to the best player in the Stanley Cup playoffs. How does the voting process work?

vegashockeyknight.com

and here is a better although dated article on it from 2011.

How the Conn Smythe voting shakes down

Unless he has a meltdown, it is hard to imagine any winner other than the Bruins' Tim Thomas

www.theglobeandmail.com

Its actually a 5-3-1 by about 18 PHWA members in the building. Here’s a post with some recent results.

Here you can find the ballots of each individual voter from the last 4 years.

PHWA Conn Smythe Trophy ballots: Ovechkin’s win – Professional Hockey Writers Association
PHWA Conn Smythe Trophy ballots: O’Reilly’s win – Professional Hockey Writers Association.
PHWA’s 2020 Conn Smythe Ballots: Hedman’s razor thin win – Professional Hockey Writers Association
PHWA’s 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy ballots: Vasilevskiy’s resounding win – Professional Hockey Writers Association

In the scenario of the guy you quoted, all three guys would get 3 points per vote, and the winner would be determined by most 1st place votes, in which case McDavid loses b/c he didn’t get any 1sts.

Edit: I misinterpreted the other guy’s post. It is possible for McDavid to win but he needs at least 1 1st, if everyone else votes him 2nd. It would look like this:

McDavid: 1st 1 2nd 17 Total: 56
Bobrobsky: 1st 9 2nd 0 3rd 9 Total: 54
Barkov: 1st 8 2nd 1 3rd 9 Total: 52

 

[wetcoast]

Its actually a 5-3-1 by about 18 PHWA members in the building. Here’s a post with some recent results.

In the scenario of the guy you quoted, all three guys would get 3 points per vote, and the winner would be determined by most 1st place votes.

Okay thanks that makes more sense and I don't know why they don't make the voting public like for the regular season awards.

Under the 5-3-1 system I could see voters actually putting the best guy in second place if his team didn't win the SC but I wouldn't agree with it this year.

My ballot would be

McDavid,
Barkov
BOB.

 

[vipera1960]

Okay thanks that makes more sense and I don't know why they don't make the voting public like for the regular season awards.

Under the 5-3-1 system I could see voters actually putting the best guy in second place if his team didn't win the SC but I wouldn't agree with it this year.

My ballot would be

McDavid,
Barkov
BOB.

They do make it public. That was a link to the PHWA website where they listed who voted and what their votes were. Here’s 2022 and 2023:
PHWA Ballots: Cale Makar unanimous 2022 Conn Smythe Trophy winner – Professional Hockey Writers Association
PHWA Ballots: Marchessault’s 2023 Conn Smythe Trophy win – Professional Hockey Writers Association

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gretzky beat 2 records that were set a year, and two years earlier. Gretzky outscored Bossy by just 3 points and Middleton(didn't play in the SCF) by 5 points. The 4 round playoff format was only around for 4 years at this point.

McDavid has 11 more assists than Barkov has points, and 17 more points. The record McDavid just beat has been around for 40 years.

Billy Smith was by far the best goalie that year AINEC. There was multiple goalies better than Bob this year.

Don't see how the two years are comparable in the slightest.

My point is that breaking assist records don't seem to be enough to sway Conn Smythe voters if you don't win the cup. Voters have shown a gigantic bias towards goals and goal related milestones when voting for MVP awards.

Take the 2018 Conn Smythe as an example. Ovechkin was great that year, but Kuznetsov was pretty clearly the better player in the first 3 rounds and again in the final:

• Playoff total
  • EK: 12g 32p +12 6 ESG 20 ESP 56.6% xG%
  • AO: 15g 12a +8 6 ESG 16 ESP 55.9% xG%
• Finals
  • EK: 1g 7p +5 1 ESG 5 ESP
  • AO: 3g 5p +3 1 ESG 3 ESP

Kuznetsov also had the game 6 OT winner to finally propel them past their rivals in Pittsburgh. He was very clearly the statistically dominant player, and he did it while playing the more important position. But OV had 3 more PP goals, so he won the Smythe.

A few other examples of the media heavily favoring goals in MVP voting:

• Nieuwendyk CS over Modano in 1999
• Marchessault CS over Eichel in 2023
• Lemieux CS over Broten in 1995
• Matthews Hart in 2022
• Perry Hart in 2011

I think McDavid's goal totals may be what ends up hurting him here, though I do think he'll get a voting boost because he's a generational player, he's a captain, and he's a Canadian, which has shown to be a pretty big benefit for CS contenders (Crosby winning in 2016 as an example).

 

[wetcoast]

They do make it public. That was a link to the PHWA website where they listed who voted and what their votes were. Here’s 2022 and 2023:
PHWA Ballots: Cale Makar unanimous 2022 Conn Smythe Trophy winner – Professional Hockey Writers Association
PHWA Ballots: Marchessault’s 2023 Conn Smythe Trophy win – Professional Hockey Writers Association

Thanks recent development.

 

[Mulletman]

I do think he'll get a voting boost because he's a generational player, he's a captain, and he's a Canadian, which has shown to be a pretty big benefit for CS contenders (Crosby winning in 2016 as an example).

You also need to take age into consideration. Crosby was 28 back in 2016 when they gifted him the Conn Smythe, as it could've been the last time he made the finals and they didn't want Crosby to go Conn Smytheless. McDavid is 27 right now and only has 1 more year with this core to try and win. There's plenty of reason to "gift it" to McDavid this year even if he doesn't win the cup. Who knows if McDavid will ever reach the finals again so this might be the last chance to give him a Conn Smythe. I mean do you want to live in a world were McDavid never wins the Conn Smythe?!