How would you rate out drafting the past few years??

[Advanced stats]

You think all of those guys are definite NHLers? As in, playing 10 games or what? 100?

I wouldn't put money on Abruzzese getting much more than a few cups of coffee, and most of the second half of that list are coin flips at best. Hell, even Robertson has a fair chance of busting, because if it's questionable if he's durable enough for a bottom 6 role if he can't produce enough in the top 6.

My thinking was approximately 50 games.

Your 2nd half of the list comment is weird though.. Our best prospects are in the 2nd half there( Knies, Niemela, Minten) if you don't think they'll like make it, I can't help you with that.

 

[613Leafer]

Hard to truly judge, though I would say our 2nd and 3rd round picks under Dubas (Durzi, Robertson, Hirvonen, Niemela, and Knies in particular) appear to be doing much better for their ages than the guys we were drafting ~10-15 years ago with those picks (e.g. Kenny Ryan, Blacker, Devane, Ross, McKegg, Olden, Leivo, Finn, etc), who are closer to our weaker 2nd/3rd picks from the last few years (e.g. Kokkenen, SDA, Stotts, etc).

So I think we're getting good bang for our buck, and have a few later round picks who are trending well too (e.g. Tverberg, Villeneuve, Holmberg, Voit, etc), but at the end of the day, we're talking about projections and probably mixing in a bit of wishful thinking. Until we actually see this team develop it's own Palat, Kucherov, Bergeron, Keith, Weber, Aho, Kaprizov, etc outside of the first round, or at minimum some useful middle lineup players, then we can't really judge the drafting/development under Dubas as being truly a positive.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

picking marner with all those options still on the board makes hunter the clear winner over dubas for now. sandin and durzi cant cancel out sticking with marner, half the org wanted marner and other half wanted hanifin so marner doesnt count as a "even a monkey could have picked him" pick.

add in liljegren and dubas is way behind right now. lots of nice profiles to read but nothing concrete yet. if some start making impacts then he can climb back up

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

My thinking was approximately 50 games.

Your 2nd half of the list comment is weird though.. Our best prospects are in the 2nd half there( Knies, Niemela, Minten) if you don't think they'll like make it, I can't help you with that.

Weird is thinking that literally all of them are going to make it. If that happens, I'll give Dubas full credit. Until then, maybe consider tempering your expectations.

 

[Clyde Brewer]

Outside of top 10 picks, I'm very happy with Liljegren. Knies and Niemla give me hope.

I'm still not convinced with Sandin or Robertson- they have a good chance, but I see neither as guarantees. Not sure what to think about Hirvonen and Abruzzese, I have my doubts there.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

regime before hunter picking nylander instead of some of the other options puts dubas below that one too.

 

[rimshot]

yes, but you also said you've been reading about how good our prospect pool is, and that reading always included those top-10 picks.

That is some elite level sophistry there Zeke. His primary statement put forth the proposition that EXCLUDING top 10 picks, the drafting has been substandard. You provided a list that included top ten picks to disprove his statement. However, that succeeded only in proving his original statement to be correct. Once those top ten drafted players are excluded (as stated) it is a very feeble looking list. Contending that the first sentence in his post negated the second sentence is an attempt at strawmaning his argument.

 

[darrylsittler27]

We are in so much trouble in 2 years when Dubas is gone.

 

[zeke]

That is some elite level sophistry there Zeke. His primary statement put forth the proposition that EXCLUDING top 10 picks, the drafting has been substandard. You provided a list that included top ten picks to disprove his statement. However, that succeeded only in proving his original statement to be correct. Once those top ten drafted players are excluded (as stated) it is a very feeble looking list. Contending that the first sentence in his post negated the second sentence is an attempt at strawmaning his argument.

no, he was mocking Leafs fans for overhyping their system because they said the system was good back then, and then he subtracted all the best prospects in order to portray the ratings of the system as overratings.

 

[rimshot]

no, he was mocking Leafs fans for overhyping their system because they said the system was good back then, and then he subtracted all the best prospects in order to portray the ratings of the system as overratings.

I think your reading comprehension skills are lacking. That is not what the words said no matter how you try to rearrange them. There was no mocking that I could see only a simple statement of fact that outside the top ten draft picks the drafting has been unimpressive. Do not take every criticism of Leaf drafting as a personal attack.

 

[zeke]

I think your reading comprehension skills are lacking. That is not what the words said no matter how you try to rearrange them. There was no mocking that I could see only a simple statement of fact that outside the top ten draft picks the drafting has been unimpressive. Do not take every criticism of Leaf drafting as a personal attack.

My reading comprehension is flawless, of course.

The post was clearly taking a shot at the Leafs system being overrated in the past based on the strong ratings he read about it at the time.. That strong rating always included their top prospects, of course, so ignoring those prospects when talking about how that system was rated at the time makes no sense.

 

[stickty111]

My reading comprehension is flawless, of course.

The post was clearly taking a shot at the Leafs system being overrated in the past based on the strong ratings he read about it at the time.. That strong rating always included their top prospects, of course, so ignoring those prospects when talking about how that system was rated at the time makes no sense.

Pretty much. Class case of cherrypicking and looking at just the relevent parts to suit an argument

 

[justashadowof]

If one player picked outside the 1st round for your team becomes a full time useful NHL regular, better than some 4th line slug, that's a success.

 

[ACC1224]

I think your reading comprehension skills are lacking. That is not what the words said no matter how you try to rearrange them. There was no mocking that I could see only a simple statement of fact that outside the top ten draft picks the drafting has been unimpressive. Do not take every criticism of Leaf drafting as a personal attack.

Any criticism perceived or otherwise must be defended vigorously.

 

[Golden_Jet]

We are in so much trouble in 2 years when Dubas is gone.

Not sure what you mean or implying.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs have traded away soooo many picks in the last 4 years in a scorched earth approach to fuel the current machine that there isn't a lot coming from the limited selections being made

We have made 26 picks over the last 4 years. Default is 28. And we've drafted a lot of good prospects with those picks.

All those previous years of drafting small skilled 5-10 players were all wasted picks the moment they were announced for the most part.

On the contrary - the pre-Dubas players drafted for size (which are the picks that would have been making the team over the past few years) have largely been wastes.

 

[AcerComputer]

There was a stretch where were were draft all these overagers under Hunter. I recall Dubas saying they found an inefficacy in the draft, by drafting olders players we'd see them quicker. Good thinking, because none of them worked out, because they have limited upside. Need to draft a swing for the fences pick, and not guys whose ceiling is a 3rd line centre or a dime a dozen NHL body.

 

[Morbo]

So, outside of the Top 10, we have a 3rd line forward, and couple of D that are finally starting to take regular shifts. Over 11 years, I would consider that pretty dismal.

It's always been dismal.

you want your #1 reason the Leafs haven't won a Cup in so long, there it is.

 

[93LEAFS]

picking marner with all those options still on the board makes hunter the clear winner over dubas for now. sandin and durzi cant cancel out sticking with marner, half the org wanted marner and other half wanted hanifin so marner doesnt count as a "even a monkey could have picked him" pick.

add in liljegren and dubas is way behind right now. lots of nice profiles to read but nothing concrete yet. if some start making impacts then he can climb back up

yeah, this idea to downplay Marner like it was the clear obvious pick at the time is so disingenuous its ridiculous. Like Bobs list didn't have Hanifin three. Or the fact we 99% take Marner over Strome under Hunter.

 

[Tarmore]

Not many teams have as many late round hits as the Leafs recently. We have Brown, Johnson and the Giraffe off the top of my head.

I think their development department is the real hero here. Not only what they have been doing for our later round players but look to Moore and Mik as well. There are a couple more in the pipeline (Steeves sp?) that look pretty likely to become NHLers too.

Not to mention one of the better records for first rounders turning into NHL players.

For HF standards where every pick needs to become a star F

For standards vs the results of the rest of the league probably in the B range (for the quality of where the selections are made)

 

[zeke]

All those previous years of drafting small skilled 5-10 players were all wasted picks the moment they were announced for the most part.

Last 15 Drafts.

L.Schenn 1st
F.Gauthier 1st
T.Biggs 1st
S.Percy 1st
C.Grundstrom 2nd
J.Hayes 2nd
K.Ryan 2nd
Y.Korshkov 2nd
B.Ross 2nd
E.Rasnanen 2nd
M.Finn 2nd
J.Devane 3rd
S.Olden 3rd
R.Valiev 3rd
J.Blacker 3rd
J.Greenway 3rd
A.Nielsen 3rd


What an absolute travesty of wasted high draft picks on Size/Grit. Only one of these high round picks became a regular NHLer and he was a top-5 pick that turned into a bottom pair dman.

Just devestatingly gross.

 

[andora]

this thread is confusing - are Zeke and Rimshot talking about different posters?

 

[zeke]

Last 15 Drafts.

L.Schenn 1st
F.Gauthier 1st
T.Biggs 1st
S.Percy 1st
C.Grundstrom 2nd
J.Hayes 2nd
K.Ryan 2nd
Y.Korshkov 2nd
B.Ross 2nd
E.Rasnanen 2nd
M.Finn 2nd
J.Devane 3rd
R.Valiev 3rd
J.Blacker 3rd
J.Greenway 3rd
A.Nielsen 3rd


What an absolute travesty of wasted high draft picks on Size/Grit. Only one of these high round picks became a regular NHLer and he was a top-5 pick that turned into a bottom pair dman.

Just devestatingly gross.

And then of course when you draft for skill instead over that same time frame:


Matthews 1st
Marner 1st
Rielly 1st
Kadri 1st
Nylander 1st
Liljegren 1st
Sandin 1st
Durzi 2nd
Robertson 2nd
Dermott 2nd
Bracco 2nd
Verhaghe 3rd
McKegg 3rd
Leivo 3rd
(Kokkonen 3rd)
(SDA 3rd)
(Stotts 3rd)
Dzierkals 3rd

Most of them turn into NHLers and good NHLers at that.

Not to mention the late round picks that really stick are small guys like Brown 5th and Johnsson 7th too. Count Engvall 7th too if youre one who thinks he's soft.

 

[Mess]

The 2016 class was the Draft year of the past years (under a previous GM) that was the most impactful in perhaps Leafs franchise history and my favourite one.


[TABLE=collapse]
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[TH]2016 Entry[/TH]
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[TH][/TH]

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[TH][/TH]

[TH][/TH]

[TH][/TH]

[TH][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH]Draft[/TH]
[TH]Num.[/TH]
[TH]Round[/TH]
[TH]Player[/TH]
[TH]Pos[/TH]
[TH]Drafted From[/TH]
[TH]GP[/TH]
[TH]G[/TH]
[TH]A[/TH]
[TH]Pts[/TH]
[TH]PIM[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016 Entry[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Zurich SC [Swiss-A][/TD]
[TD]407[/TD]
[TD]259[/TD]
[TD]198[/TD]
[TD]457[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016 Entry[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Egor Korshkov[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [KHL][/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016 Entry[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Carl Grundstrom[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL][/TD]
[TD]129[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016 Entry[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Joseph Woll[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]U.S. National Development Team [USHL][/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016 Entry[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]J.D. Greenway[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]U.S. National Development Team [USHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016 Entry[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Adam Brooks[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Regina Pats [WHL][/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016 Entry[/TD]
[TD]101[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Keaton Middleton[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Saginaw Spirit [OHL][/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Mess]

We have made 26 picks over the last 4 years. Default is 28. And we've drafted a lot of good prospects with those picks.

On the contrary - the pre-Dubas players drafted for size (which are the picks that would have been making the team over the past few years) have largely been wastes.

I'm not fooled into thinking quantity by making multiple 4ths, 5th , 3 X 6th and 3 X 7ths ( outside the top 120 picks in a draft) all count as equals when you trade away your 1st and 2nd round picks and pretend it doesn't matter.

Look at all those 6th and 7th rounders??? So no problem dealing away our 1st in 4 straight draft classes when you can baffle them with quantity to hide the quality lost.

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[TH]2020 Entry[/TH]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TH]Draft[/TH]
[TH]Num.[/TH]
[TH]Round[/TH]
[TH]Player[/TH]
[TH]Pos[/TH]
[TH]Drafted From[/TH]
[TH]GP[/TH]
[TH]G[/TH]
[TH]A[/TH]
[TH]Pts[/TH]
[TH]PIM[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Rodion Amirov[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]Ufa Salavat Yulayev [KHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Roni Hirvonen[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Assat Pori [SM-liiga][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Topi Niemela[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Karpat [SM-liiga][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Artur Akhtyamov[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]Kazan Jrs. (Russia)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]William Villeneuve[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Dmitry Ovchinnikov[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]Novosibirsk Jrs. (Russia)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Veeti Miettinen[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]Espoo Jrs. (Finland)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Axel Rindell[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Jukurit Mikkeli [SM-liiga][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Joe Miller[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Blake School (Minn. H.S.)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]189[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]John Fusco[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Dexter Southfield (Mass. H.S.)[/TD]
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[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]195[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Wyatt Schingoethe[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]213[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Tverberg[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Jr. Canadiens [OJHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

For a good laugh why don't you drill down on some of those 6th and 7th rounders above (with the links provided) and check out their size and their last year stats and then perhaps provide a timeline when you think they will be making their NHL debuts with our Leafs. I'm most excited about 5'-8" / 146lbs centre Joe Miller who is still playing in the USHL now 2+ years post draft.