johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
- 21,478
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I still don't know if we, as a society, are overreacting to this or are under-reacting to it.
Weird times.
Weird times.
TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139
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Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Based on what's happening around the world, an "over" reaction resulting in less infections here would be fantastic. If we didn't know what we already know, you could maybe call it that. Knowing what we know now, however..
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
You'll probably hear this term a lot in the next few weeks. It's about flattening the curve so medical infrastructure doesn't get overloaded.
Flattening A Pandemic's Curve: Why Staying Home Now Can Save Lives
As far as "when it's over"--well, China has already had people recover, and 'herd immunity' is sort of how it dies out it seems. My big worry is when will it flare up again? A disease with such a long incubation period is deadly for spikes. With many previous illnesses, you knew you were sick in short order, which in a roundabout way stems the spread. I liked this graphic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?utm_source=pocket-newtab
Flattening A Pandemic's Curve: Why Staying Home Now Can Save Lives
As far as "when it's over"--well, China has already had people recover, and 'herd immunity' is sort of how it dies out it seems. My big worry is when will it flare up again? A disease with such a long incubation period is deadly for spikes. With many previous illnesses, you knew you were sick in short order, which in a roundabout way stems the spread. I liked this graphic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?utm_source=pocket-newtab
One way to look at it is we are valuing the lives of the weakest among us (elderly, immuno compromised) over short and mid-term prosperity. We could let this run its course without severe social distancing (except for those highest at risk) and many more people would get it. For most the symptoms would be mild, but a million or more people could die.
No guarantee what we are trying to do will actually prevent this, but it is guaranteed to wreck the economy. And we are proceeding with little hesitation nevertheless.
Could say it speaks well of our collective humanity.
Except for the toilet seat lickers among us.
No guarantee what we are trying to do will actually prevent this, but it is guaranteed to wreck the economy. And we are proceeding with little hesitation nevertheless.
Could say it speaks well of our collective humanity.
Except for the toilet seat lickers among us.
What's not being said is it's really not about preventing people from getting sick. It's preventing people from getting sick all at once. Experts are more or less resigned to this becoming something most people catch regardless.
Cool graphs, thanks for sharing. One thing though is last I saw they're still not even sure if you get it and recover that you are unable to contract it again. Last news on that I could find is a few days old though, not sure if that's changed?
EDIT:
"According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the leading experts on infectious disease in the U.S., and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, once a person has contracted the new coronavirus, they cannot become infected again."
What you should know about coronavirus or COVID-19 in Colorado - UCHealth Today
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KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
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In the old days this girl was known as the village idiot. Unfortunately, one of the drawbacks of social media is she is now known the world over. I hope she never makes another dime from the internet, but she will continue to cash in, I'm sure.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
redcard
System Poster
- Mar 12, 2007
- 7,272
- 5,836
Well its both.
The stock market plummet is an overreaction, there's no reason for anyone who's not planning to retire in the next 1-3 years to liquidate their IRAs. And if you were planning to retire in 1-3 years....you probably weren't (or shouldn't have been) heavily invested in equities anyway. But so many people don't understand what the stock market is and it has triggered this massive sell off.
The toilet paper run and perishable goods run is also an overreaction. Probably don't have to explain that one to anyone around here by now, the supply chains are all still in place, we're not shutting down the toilet paper factories, but again, mass panic, monkey see, monkey do.
But, the risk to the healthcare system is not an overreaction. We will have a lot of elderly people who require hospitalization at the same time that we may not have the resources for. There will be people who die, needlessly, simply because the doctors, nurses, and healthcare facilities will be overwhelmed and unable to render the treatment that they normally would be able to provide.
We are quite fortunate that, in truth, this pandemic is a relatively mild one (please don't come back and bite me in the ass). People are dying, but could you imagine if this virus was killing even 2% of all populations? All ages? Regardless of health? That would be catastrophic. What we learn in the coming weeks, months, and years could be crucial in preventing an even more serious pandemic from crippling us.
There are no duck fans here.
Exactly, also I realize I am speaking from a completely different position, I work from home, I work in recession proof industry (trucking) couple that with my desire to see no one, ever, for any reason......etc.
In all seriousness, like I said, people are stupid, and lazy, and selfish, no one WANTS to stay home 30 days, not go anywhere, see anyone, do anything for 30 days, but that's the best chance we have of coming out of the other side with some sense of normalcy.
RocketKing
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2017
- 986
- 876
I agree, in fact I have read that by flattening the curve that this will actually take the virus longer to run its cycle. But in doing so, it will allow the ICU capacity that we do have to be able to treat all those who need the critical care ICU. If everyone were to get sick at once it would overwhelm our ICU capacity forcing Drs to make decisions about who gets the ICU bed slot and lives and who doesn't and dies. Couple that with the high rate of transmission and that people can have it but show now affects and you have a really really dangerous infection.
If the infections goes along the lines of a case being worked thru our full healthcare system, where people who need the ICU can get it, then the mortality rate is thought (so far) to be around 1%. If it goes thru a healthcare system overwhelmed and people who need ICU cannot get it then the mortality rate is much higher. While people under 50 appear so far to have a much lower risk of death, they are the ones who need to distance themselves so that they don't pass the virus on and it then comes in contact with the older categories where the mortality rate gets very high.
Maybe we look at like this - self contain/distance/shut-it or whatever you want to call it in order to save your mom & dad or grandparents or someone useless mom & dad or grandparents. That's sort-of how I have been looking at this and really made a move to do this with my family last week. Its all we have so far today to deal with this thing.
You're not going to keep people home for months though. Eventually they just won't listen. And then what? How do you enforce any of this? They're letting criminals out of jail in LA over this panic.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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- 11,767
Yeah, I would like the Los Angeles County Sheriff explain the reasoning behind this decision. Seems like some are using the crisis as cover to take actions they have been wanting to take for quite some time.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Another reason why I am heavily armed.
I don't mean guns, I have all kinds of extra appendages, like General Grevious
Here's an explanation for the different death rates in South Korea and Italy:
In Italy, 90% of the more than 1,000 deaths occur in those 70 or older.
By contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases.
Then there is gender. The gender split in COVID-19 cases worldwide is about 50-50, but there are gender differences in survival. According to data from the original outbreak in China, the overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women -- a whopping difference. Which is good news for South Korea, where 62% of cases occur among women.
Smoking is another factor clearly associated with poor survival. Smoking rates are about the same between the two countries: 24% for Italians and 27% for South Koreans. But gender differences among smokers are widely different: In Italy, 28% of men versus 20% of women smoke, while in Korea, it is about 50% of men and less than 5% (!) of women.
In other words, South Korea has an outbreak among youngish, non-smoking women, whereas Italy's disease is occurring among the old and the very old, many of whom are smokers. (We do not know the male-female breakdown of Italy's cases).
These basic demographic distinctions explain the difference in death rates between these two hard-hit countries -- as well as helping to explain why Seattle, with its nursing home outbreak, accounts for such a large proportion of US coronavirus deaths.
Why does South Korea have so few coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many (opinion) - CNN
In Italy, 90% of the more than 1,000 deaths occur in those 70 or older.
By contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases.
Then there is gender. The gender split in COVID-19 cases worldwide is about 50-50, but there are gender differences in survival. According to data from the original outbreak in China, the overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women -- a whopping difference. Which is good news for South Korea, where 62% of cases occur among women.
Smoking is another factor clearly associated with poor survival. Smoking rates are about the same between the two countries: 24% for Italians and 27% for South Koreans. But gender differences among smokers are widely different: In Italy, 28% of men versus 20% of women smoke, while in Korea, it is about 50% of men and less than 5% (!) of women.
In other words, South Korea has an outbreak among youngish, non-smoking women, whereas Italy's disease is occurring among the old and the very old, many of whom are smokers. (We do not know the male-female breakdown of Italy's cases).
These basic demographic distinctions explain the difference in death rates between these two hard-hit countries -- as well as helping to explain why Seattle, with its nursing home outbreak, accounts for such a large proportion of US coronavirus deaths.
Why does South Korea have so few coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many (opinion) - CNN
One more thing: It has been said (rightfully so, IMHO) that civilization is but a thin veneer. As we've seen with the panic buying, desperate people do desperate things. Fortunately, even with the media-induced panic buying, our supplies for necessities (food, gas) are still strong. This may or may not change. If it changes, watch out. Preparation for two-legged viruses is just as important as preparation for CV. It only takes an order for first responders to no longer respond to "minor" incidents. Be safe.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
fivehole32
Kicking rebounds to the slot
- Jan 11, 2015
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Also a good point I heard from a friend is get a big jar of whey protein in a pinch. Its something that is storable for a while and good for calories if you can't get calories anyway else.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
- 11,767
I am very good against droids. Just put your loaf of bread down and walk away.Another reason why I am heavily armed.
I don't mean guns, I have all kinds of extra appendages, like General Grevious
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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South Korea should be fertile ground for collecting the antibodies needed to combat the virus.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
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ricardfromage
"You wanted the Germs, you get em"
Trucking, now that is a back breaking job.
I live in the furthest reaches of Northern Idaho in a "town" that is more like Northern Exposure then an actual town and we sit at the resturaunt/bar with a bucket of popcorn watching the news with fascination. A crowded night might see 11 people in total so it doesn't get too busy. There is a Safeway couple of dozen miles down the road so we all rushed there to see the lines of humanity and missing toilet paper but it was only business as usual. I have lived all of Canada (sort of) and been all over the world (for work mostly, military etc) and I am never ceased to be amazed by the kindness generosity and sheer ignorance of my fellow Americans at times. We truly are living among the best people on earth the only problem is most of us don't know it. This virus will pass and be another example of our greatness and our stupidity like most of these types of situations. I don't know about the rest of you but I sure am glad that I am an American today. I would hate to have to face this sort of thing in ANY other country on earth.
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ricardfromage
"You wanted the Germs, you get em"
An o
An old military trick for the odd prepper is to buy several cans of Crisco and seasoning(s). You would be amazed at how good a little fat soup can be (water Cisco and seasoning) when there isn't anything to eat. High calories and fat content can help in a dire emergency. We got a tonne of that crap in our MRE's. It also lasts forever and requires nothing to store.
An old military trick for the odd prepper is to buy several cans of Crisco and seasoning(s). You would be amazed at how good a little fat soup can be (water Cisco and seasoning) when there isn't anything to eat. High calories and fat content can help in a dire emergency. We got a tonne of that crap in our MRE's. It also lasts forever and requires nothing to store.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
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ricardfromage
"You wanted the Germs, you get em"
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