TSN: How the coronavirus could impact the NHL’s bottom line UPD: NHL Season suspended MOD Warning post139

[SettlementRichie10]

Additionally, this myth that only the elderly are at risk with this virus needs to be stamped out. Check the statistics in Italy. There are hundreds of 30-50 year olds currently hospitalized in critical condition.

Yes, those 60+ are most at risk. But that doesn’t mean there is no risk whatsoever to everyone 20-50. This virus is at least 20 times more deadly to healthy adults under the age of 50 than the seasonal flu.

Even if every single 60+ year old stayed at home and adhered to perfect quarantine, at least 5% of all infections require hospitalization. Our healthcare system would STILL be overrun with critical (intubated) or severe (respirated) cases of 20-50 year olds.

The economy is already gone. And it won’t mean a damn thing anyway if the healthcare system collapses. The only measure that has successfully slowed down this pandemic is strict mass quarantine (as seen in China and Italy) or extremely early testing and contact tracing (as seen in SK and Japan, which is unfortunately no longer an option in America).

 

[jfont]

The utter incompetence of this current administration is astounding

 

[Master Yoda]

No, there are likely close to a million cases in America right now. Ohio public health officials are estimating 100,000 in their state alone.

We have performed an embarrassingly low 12,000 tests total in the entire country over the past three weeks. South Korea is testing 10,000 per DAY.

People are contagious sometimes 48 hours before they show symptoms. This is why we haven’t been able to contain this pathogen in any country anywhere in the world. The number of real cases will continue to grow exponentially every day (100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400, 12800...) until healthcare infrastructure becomes completely overwhelmed.

We should have cancelled everything everywhere a week ago, but that would have required actual foresight from our elected officials. Regardless, we can still enact strict quarantines right now to flatten the curve.

It will murder the economy, but that’s far preferable to the total collapse of the American healthcare system, which WILL happen if we do not flatten the curve.

You may be right about the number of cases. But then that would also mean those people haven't gotten sick enough to be hospitalized or even be tested.
I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of the virus, and we most definitely do need to "flatten the curve".
But the mass panic leading to toilet paper hoarding is ridiculous. It's as if people think they'll die if they can't wipe their ass.

 

[RocketKing]

Additionally, this myth that only the elderly are at risk with this virus needs to be stamped out. Check the statistics in Italy. There are hundreds of 30-50 year olds currently hospitalized in critical condition.

Yes, those 60+ are most at risk. But that doesn’t mean there is no risk whatsoever to everyone 20-50. This virus is at least 20 times more deadly to healthy adults under the age of 50 than the seasonal flu.

Even if every single 60+ year old stayed at home and adhered to perfect quarantine, at least 5% of all infections require hospitalization. Our healthcare system would STILL be overrun with critical (intubated) or severe (respirated) cases of 20-50 year olds.

The economy is already gone. And it won’t mean a damn thing anyway if the healthcare system collapses. The only measure that has successfully slowed down this pandemic is strict mass quarantine (as seen in China and Italy) or extremely early testing and contact tracing (as seen in SK and Japan, which is unfortunately no longer an option in America).

I agree that this is dangerous for pretty much anyone, but have most of the deaths been focused on the very old and people with health related pre-existing conditions?

27 of all the actual US deaths are from the Nursing Home where many elderly people have died. While that’s really bad for them I think the individual mortality rate looks like it’s mostly directed to that group.

From a mortality perspective it seems like there is also a cultural dynamic as well in that in China and Italy allot of people smoke, not to mention that the air quality of China overall has to be a tax on the respiratory system and they both handed it badly.

The bigger overall danger I think is to our Systems - Healthcare & Economics. We have to address this to make sure our Systems don’t get annihilated.

The one biggest impact is as you have pointed out is that it takes 25% or so into ICU in order to survive, so that on its own will totally overwhelm our system. That’s where this really is different. If we don’t keep the curve flat enough to with with our capacity then it will be VERY BAD.

This is different in that it’s forcing a society to adjust its behavior in order to deal with it. Or if they don’t, like China didn’t, many will die. That is also definitely screwing up our economics, but it can be dealt with if we as a society modify our behaviors until the vaccine can be finished. Which is why this is dangerous to everyone, we all need to do what needs to be done in ordering avoid the meltdown.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

You may be right about the number of cases. But then that would also mean those people haven't gotten sick enough to be hospitalized or even be tested.
I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of the virus, and we most definitely do need to "flatten the curve".
But the mass panic leading to toilet paper hoarding is ridiculous. It's as if people think they'll die if they can't wipe their ass.

“Infections” don’t mean “actively sick.” If there are 100,000 infections currently in Ohio, these 100,000 recently infected people won’t start becoming really ill for another 1-2 weeks. The incubation period is often two weeks or more.

This is exactly why every major health official or virologist is predicting a massive spike in hospitalizations approximately 7-10 days from now.

To be frank, I think anyone focusing on a toilet paper shortage instead of the monumental health crisis right in front of us is still engaging in light denialism. Running low on toiletries is so infinitesimally small of a crisis compared to the looming spike of critical cases and deaths.

 

[HeadInjury]

As a follow up to my post yesterday about Italy in the other thread, there were 250 deaths in Italy today, which is a 25% increase in total deaths in just one day, and yesterday had a 23% increase in total deaths in just one day. Very serious situation. I hope everyone here stays safe, follows the advice to wash hands, limit contact with large groups, etc., so we can slow the spread here to levels that don't overwhelm our healthcare system.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I agree that this is dangerous for pretty much anyone, but have most of the deaths been focused on the very old and people with health related pre-existing conditions?

27 of all the actual US deaths are from the Nursing Home where many elderly people have died. While that’s really bad for them I think the individual mortality rate looks like it’s mostly directed to that group.

From a mortality perspective it seems like there is also a cultural dynamic as well in that in China and Italy allot of people smoke, not to mention that the air quality of China overall has to be a tax on the respiratory system and they both handed it badly.

The bigger overall danger I think is to our Systems - Healthcare & Economics. We have to address this to make sure our Systems don’t get annihilated.

The one biggest impact is as you have pointed out is that it takes 25% or so into ICU in order to survive, so that on its own will totally overwhelm our system. That’s where this really is different. If we don’t keep the curve flat enough to with with our capacity then it will be VERY BAD.

This is different in that it’s forcing a society to adjust its behavior in order to deal with it. Or if they don’t, like China didn’t, many will die. That is also definitely screwing up our economics, but it can be dealt with if we as a society modify our behaviors until the vaccine can be finished. Which is why this is dangerous to everyone, we all need to do what needs to be done in ordering avoid the meltdown.

It’s a myth that this is an “old people disease.” You should take a look at the statistics in Italy. It’s not all 60+ year olds on intubators and respirators. Far from from it. Young people are surviving because doctors and ERs are performing wartime triage and choosing who lives and who dies based on likelihood of outcome.

Everyone 50 and under walking around as if they’ll get this and shrug it off like the flu is not attached to reality. Some will, yes, but most healthy adults get significantly ill for upwards of two or more weeks. There are just as many critical cases requiring hospitalization as there are those who shrug it off with barely a fever.

Every leading epidemiologist or health official is saying the same thing: this is roughly 10-15 times worse than a severe flu season in every way. Ten times the deaths, ten times the hospitalization. And that’s ten times the WORST flu season, not the average flu season.

No one will know how this will impact our demographics until it hits saturation. Italy is not that much older than the US. Plus, the US is a much fatter country by far. We already know obesity places significant stress on the lungs and heart, two organs most egregiously impacted by COVID-19.

You can spin the demographic narrative whatever way you wish. The fact remains Italy is not significantly different enough from the US to reasonably infer that the US will magically avoid a similar fate.

 

[ibleedkings]

The utter incompetence of this current administration is astounding

Awe poor snowflake. Go complain somewhere else.

 

[KINGS17]

I agree that this is dangerous for pretty much anyone, but have most of the deaths been focused on the very old and people with health related pre-existing conditions?

27 of all the actual US deaths are from the Nursing Home where many elderly people have died. While that’s really bad for them I think the individual mortality rate looks like it’s mostly directed to that group.

From a mortality perspective it seems like there is also a cultural dynamic as well in that in China and Italy allot of people smoke, not to mention that the air quality of China overall has to be a tax on the respiratory system and they both handed it badly.

The bigger overall danger I think is to our Systems - Healthcare & Economics. We have to address this to make sure our Systems don’t get annihilated.

The one biggest impact is as you have pointed out is that it takes 25% or so into ICU in order to survive, so that on its own will totally overwhelm our system. That’s where this really is different. If we don’t keep the curve flat enough to with with our capacity then it will be VERY BAD.

This is different in that it’s forcing a society to adjust its behavior in order to deal with it. Or if they don’t, like China didn’t, many will die. That is also definitely screwing up our economics, but it can be dealt with if we as a society modify our behaviors until the vaccine can be finished. Which is why this is dangerous to everyone, we all need to do what needs to be done in ordering avoid the meltdown.

President Trump just said he will order restrictions for nursing home visits to protect the residents of the nursing homes. It's a good move.

Some interesting news...researchers are asking for voluntary blood donations from people who tested positive and never developed symptoms to research the antibodies created when their body contracted the coronavirus. This may lead to a treatment (not a vaccine) for those infected and experiencing symptoms. This is great news if it can actually be done.

 

[HeadInjury]

A lot of good information and ideas from today's press conference. A welcomed change. The public/private partnership with Walmart, Target, CVS, Walgreens, etc. on testing makes a lot of sense. Total failure on that issue up until now, but looks like we're seeing progress now.

 

[Herby]

President Trump just said he will order restrictions for nursing home visits to protect the residents of the nursing homes. It's a good move.

Some interesting news...researchers are asking for voluntary blood donations from people who tested positive and never developed symptoms to research the antibodies created when their body contracted the coronavirus. This may lead to a treatment (not a vaccine) for those infected and experiencing symptoms. This is great news if it can actually be done.

It’s amazing how much will be able to be accomplished on that front just by lifting the bureaucratic red tape that exists in the gov when it comes to pharmaceuticals. As a T1 diabetic I see this all the time. Companies have products but it takes years for them to get through the layers of government regulation.

 

[Herby]

I am heading up to my lake house with my daughter for the next three weeks (honestly probably longer). My source of income is done for the time being so I figure no need to stay in a heavily populated area when I am lucky enough to have another option.

The thing that has really spooked me about this is the panic for something that while bad, pales in comparison to some of the other known bugs. What if something with a 20% mortality rate that was this contagious ever hit? It would be at best martial law and honestly maybe worse. I’m not going to buy an underground bunker up there but this has shown me that a lot of what those preppers said might be true. And I’ve never been a gun guy, but very happy to live in a state that doesn’t have massive restrictions on 2nd amendment, nice to be able to go to a store in morning and pickup gun in afternoon.

 

[KINGS17]

With a shortened or canceled season,how do conditions on trades work?

I'm afraid when it comes to having the players traded away meet the conditions which bring extra goodies back, it's going to be...you lose.

 

[KINGS17]

 

[Master Yoda]

“Infections” don’t mean “actively sick.” If there are 100,000 infections currently in Ohio, these 100,000 recently infected people won’t start becoming really ill for another 1-2 weeks. The incubation period is often two weeks or more.

This is exactly why every major health official or virologist is predicting a massive spike in hospitalizations approximately 7-10 days from now.

To be frank, I think anyone focusing on a toilet paper shortage instead of the monumental health crisis right in front of us is still engaging in light denialism. Running low on toiletries is so infinitesimally small of a crisis compared to the looming spike of critical cases and deaths.

I was just poking fun there at the toilet paper thing, but this matters when you're talking about people hoarding masks or sanitizers when medical personnel who really need it can't get it.

 

[kingsholygrail]

What's going to overrun the system is the idiots that go to the ER with mild symptoms.

 

[HookKing]

1. It’s a myth that this is an “old people disease.” You should take a look at the statistics in Italy. It’s not all 60+ year olds on intubators and respirators. Far from from it. Young people are surviving because doctors and ERs are performing wartime triage and choosing who lives and who dies based on likelihood of outcome.

Everyone 50 and under walking around as if they’ll get this and shrug it off like the flu is not attached to reality. Some will, yes, but most healthy adults get significantly ill for upwards of two or more weeks. There are just as many critical cases requiring hospitalization as there are those who shrug it off with barely a fever.

Every leading epidemiologist or health official is saying the same thing: this is roughly 10-15 times worse than a severe flu season in every way. Ten times the deaths, ten times the hospitalization. And that’s ten times the WORST flu season, not the average flu season.

No one will know how this will impact our demographics until it hits saturation. Italy is not that much older than the US. Plus, the US is a much fatter country by far. We already know obesity places significant stress on the lungs and heart, two organs most egregiously impacted by COVID-19.

You can spin the demographic narrative whatever way you wish. The fact remains Italy is not significantly different enough from the US to reasonably infer that the US will magically avoid a similar fate.

So young people should stop calling it the "boomer remover"?

 

[KINGS17]

Many officials are saying the need for testing will soon be overwhelmed by the number of cases. If tens of thousands of people have mild cases of coronavirus, it will become so widespread that containment is no longer an option. It will come down to treatment. Let's hope the studies being done on blood antibodies are fruitful.

 

[KINGS17]

Additionally, this myth that only the elderly are at risk with this virus needs to be stamped out. Check the statistics in Italy. There are hundreds of 30-50 year olds currently hospitalized in critical condition.

Yes, those 60+ are most at risk. But that doesn’t mean there is no risk whatsoever to everyone 20-50. This virus is at least 20 times more deadly to healthy adults under the age of 50 than the seasonal flu.

Even if every single 60+ year old stayed at home and adhered to perfect quarantine, at least 5% of all infections require hospitalization. Our healthcare system would STILL be overrun with critical (intubated) or severe (respirated) cases of 20-50 year olds.

The economy is already gone. And it won’t mean a damn thing anyway if the healthcare system collapses. The only measure that has successfully slowed down this pandemic is strict mass quarantine (as seen in China and Italy) or extremely early testing and contact tracing (as seen in SK and Japan, which is unfortunately no longer an option in America).

The economy isn't already gone, but it will be if we don't start acting responsibly and with common sense.

Why Deaths from Coronavirus Are So High in Italy

Given Italy’s older population, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal,” compared with a country with a younger population, Gordon told Live Science.

One factor affecting the country’s death rate may be the age of its population—Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.

In addition, as people age, the chances of developing at least one condition that weakens their immune system—such as cancer or diabetes—increases, said Krys Johnson, an epidemiologist at the Temple University College of Public Health. Such conditions also make people more susceptible to severe illness from coronavirus, she said.

Finally, the country may not be catching many of the mild cases of COVID-19. Often, as testing expands within a community, more mild cases are found, which lowers the overall death rate, Gordon said. This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.

 

[BamBam1031]

The utter incompetence of this current administration is astounding

The politicizing of coronavirus is beyond the pale. We should be unified in finding a solution, and yet you are still dividing with blame. Shame on you and all like you. Truly.

 

[ricardfromage]

The utter incompetence of this current administration is astounding

I don't know why you would say that. I think our mods are doing a great job and find the boards to be run better today then they have been over the years. I couldn't
disagree with you more.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

What if something with a 20% mortality rate that was this contagious ever hit?

Well, along that line, thank God this didn't become community-transmitted in the U.S.:

Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)

Around one-third of patients diagnoses with MERS have died, according to the CDC.​

A nearly 33% mortality rate?!? Not being anything resembling a licensed medical professional, I can only surmise the vast majority of folks that actually contracted this were not properly diagnosed...??

Maybe I'm wrong, though; I just totally missed the news on that (MERS) at that time it occurred (Spring-though-Fall of 2012). OTOH, my wife and I were going through a really bad situation during that exact time span, so I'll blame it on that (and to bring this back to the Kings: the fact I was able to pay full attention to - and actually attend a couple of games during - their second Cup run, is why I'll always remember that one more fondly).

 

[jfont]

The politicizing of coronavirus is beyond the pale. We should be unified in finding a solution, and yet you are still dividing with blame. Shame on you and all like you. Truly.

OMG. This is not even political. It's a fact

Do you believe that we had test kits produced in Germany back in January. Yet we didn't try to use them? Now we use them only with ppl that have symptoms.. are you kidding me?

Do you think what he said last week that it's getting better is true? Because we know it's not and this is be a huge disservice to the public.

Why does South Korea test 10k ppl everyday and we have totalled just 11k since the outbreak? Really? This is not how you get ahead of this disease man..

Look, we're all Americans. This is as much for you as it is for me and my family. The fact of the matter is, this guy is incompetent.

You want to hear something political?.. Malarkey!

 

[BamBam1031]

OMG. This is not even political. It's a fact

Do you believe that we had test kits produced in Germany back in January. Yet we didn't try to use them? Now we use them only with ppl that have symptoms.. are you kidding me?

Do you think what he said last week that it's getting better is true? Because we know it's not and this is be a huge disservice to the public.

Why does South Korea test 10k ppl everyday and we have totalled just 11k since the outbreak? Really? This is not how you get ahead of this disease man..

Look, we're all Americans. This is as much for you as it is for me and my family. The fact of the matter is, this guy is incompetent.

You want to hear something political?.. Malarkey!

Opinion: Trump is incompetent.
Fact: Your posts are political.
Fact: It is against forum rules to shoehorn in discussions of a political nature.
Fact: You have broken this rule repeatedly.
Opinion: TDS is counter-productive.
Opinion: Anyone that uses COVID-19 to score political points is a disgusting human being.

See the difference?

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Opinion: Trump is incompetent.
Fact: Your posts are political.
Fact: It is against forum rules to shoehorn in discussions of a political nature.
Fact: You have broken this rule repeatedly.
Opinion: TDS is counter-productive.
Opinion: Anyone that uses COVID-19 to score political points is a disgusting human being.

See the difference?

Oh brother. Get over it.