How much rope does DJ Smith have? [UPDATE: None]

[Big Muddy]

I'm wondering if people are going to be disappointed when we don't end up in 9th place (overall) or whatever some of the advanced stats are indicating.

The resistance level could be getting above 12th place in the Eastern Conference if you view it from a different perspective/angle.

Let's see which of these two different perspectives turn out to be more accurate.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Don't know enough about how much Edmonton's record the past two seasons had to do with Woodcroft and how much it had to do with having the best two forwards in the world, but could we please look at an experienced head coach for once?

Have to go back to Craig Hartsburg to find a coach this team hired that had more than a couple years worth of head coaching experience.

I just don't want to see the hiring pool limited by dumb shit like it was under Melnyk. If they do their interviews and decide they want Woodcroft the most out of their candidates, at least we should be able to trust the process, and it shouldn't be because the other candidates wanted too much money or couldn't put up with his drunken rants in Barbados.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'm wondering if people are going to be disappointed when we don't end up in 9th place (overall) or whatever some of the advanced stats are indicating.

The resistance level could be getting above 12th place in the Eastern Conference if you view it from a different perspective/angle.

Let's see which of these two different perspectives turn out to be more accurate.

Natural Stattrick (5v5) has us 5th from the bottom in XGF% we finished 8th from the bottom in 2022-23; Derived from XGA/60 and XGF/60.

 

[Ice-Tray]

God, this site has been taken over by nerds! Lol

 

[Adele Dazeem]

God, this site has been taken over by nerds! Lol

You're just finding this out?

 

[swiftwin]

Crawford's 18 game stint obviously doesn't count.

Are you suggesting we should have kept him beyond that 18 game stint?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Are you suggesting we should have kept him beyond that 18 game stint?

How on earth did you get that from what I said.

 

[swiftwin]

How on earth did you get that from what I said.

The part where you said:

Don't know enough about how much Edmonton's record the past two seasons had to do with Woodcroft and how much it had to do with having the best two forwards in the world, but could we please look at an experienced head coach for once?

Have to go back to Craig Hartsburg to find a coach this team hired that had more than a couple years worth of head coaching experience.

 

[Cosmix]

I think it does if you're intent is to combat a narrative that we are disorganized defensively. 5v5 the adv stats line up pretty well with what people complain about. It also matters of you're looking to identify what the issues are in need of being addressed.

I think advanced stats does help identify the problems at a more detailed level.

Anything that will help improve GF/GF+GA is welcome.

Last game I noticed that our defensive zone strategy to protect a lead in the 3rd period involved healthy measures of "flip the puck high & out of the D zone" plus "ice the puck".

 

[Hale The Villain]

The part where you said:

So you think my preference for a head coach with experience means that I think we should have kept Marc Crawford?

 

[Micklebot]

We are the 9th most improved team this season

I do wish sportLogiq was a bit more open with their stats. Maybe the NHL could hire them to provide all their stats instead of tracking it in each arena, and make it publicly available, all the teams already use their services, why not.

What is interesting to me is how different their xGF model must be, I ran the numbers using natural statricks model and we got worse, not better, going from +.309 xGF per game down to +.136 per game.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I do wish sportLogiq was a bit more open with their stats. Maybe the NHL could hire them to provide all their stats instead of tracking it in each arena, and make it publicly available, all the teams already use their services, why not.

What is interesting to me is how different their xGF model must be, I ran the numbers using natural statricks model and we got worse, not better, going from +.309 xGF per game down to +.136 per game.

That’s not happening unfortunately, teams pay them 200k a year for their data, not sure what AHL and CHL or college teams pay.
Teams get much more useful data than xGF type numbers.

 

[HF Reader]

God, this site has been taken over by nerds! Lol

E= Mc2

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Crawford's 18 game stint obviously doesn't count.

of course it does

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

suffice it to say, DJS seems to have more rope, than his detractors have breath to hold, until he is let go, so perhaps let out your breath and wait until your day comes.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I do wish sportLogiq was a bit more open with their stats. Maybe the NHL could hire them to provide all their stats instead of tracking it in each arena, and make it publicly available, all the teams already use their services, why not.

What is interesting to me is how different their xGF model must be, I ran the numbers using natural statricks model and we got worse, not better, going from +.309 xGF per game down to +.136 per game.

Did you use 5v5? or all Situations?

 

[Hale The Villain]

of course it does

View attachment 778164

We didn't hire Crawford to be the head coach, he was just promoted at the end of the season as a caretaker after we fired Boucher,

Do you also think Roger Nielsen was hired as head coach because he coached 2 games in 2002?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We didn't hire Crawford to be the head coach, he was just promoted at the end of the season as a caretaker after we fired Boucher,

Do you also think Roger Nielsen was hired as head coach because he coached 2 games in 2002?

Hiring Crawford was basically like what promoting Capuano with 18 games left would be. An option simply from availability used as a pawn to carry them to a pre-decided end date.

 

[Micklebot]

Did you use 5v5? or all Situations?

All situations because that's what the sportlogoq thing seemed to be using

 

[swiftwin]

Natural Stattrick (5v5) has us 5th from the bottom in XGF% we finished 8th from the bottom in 2022-23; Derived from XGA/60 and XGF/60.

sportsLogiq says we've been the 2nd best team in the Atlantic:

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

sportsLogiq says we've been the 2nd best team in the Atlantic:

We must be then.

 

[LiseL]

Perhaps by stability he is referring to some continuity during this transition. Perhaps he is trying more to avoid the instability of trying to hire a coach mid season without a GM in place.

I mean sure, we as fans have been watching this rebuild and some folks are bitter and angry about it, fair enough.

But dude just paid close to a billion dollars for the team, he’s not sweating the first 82 games, he’s focused a least a few years out and how to stabilize the organization with excellent people on the way. He’s taken his time and added some quality people into important jobs, but they aren’t going to rush their plan because Dorion screwed up big time, needed to be fired early, and now the team is reeling under DJ.

They probably look at a very green POHO having to hire an NHL coach while playing GM (which he has no experience at either) as an unstable move, especially when the GM they choose will very likely want to bring in his own guys anyways a few months later.

That sounds like instability for the players, and looks a lot more Mickey Mouse like. No, they have a plan, they started late so things got bumped, they had to fire a guy which threw another wrench in the plan, but it’s a bit much to expect them to create more issues by firing another key component.

If the team keeps sliding I suspect they DJ will go and someone from in the org will take over in the interim until the seasons end. Fans will complain all season but in the end we’ll all be better for the calculated and patient approach to hiring key positions on the team.

They have to get the GM and coach right because that will be the start of the identity that the team will start to embody through trades and coaches. We really should in our heart of hearts want Andlauer and Staios to take their time. The next guys are going to have the core moving into their primes.


Eh, fans will be back in droves next year after a new coaching staff and GM have arrived and started making moves. Two first round picks by a competent staff, new playing style and all the hype that comes along with that, some off season moves… Yeah, you can feel the hype from here.

Say what you want but it’s true. Sucks for this season, but we’ll have to deal with what we have for now I’d wager.

Great post Ice-Tray. As difficult as it is, we will need to be patient for awhile longer.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

sportsLogiq says we've been the 2nd best team in the Atlantic:

nice can't wait till we make the advanced stats playoffs and win the advanced stats cup.

 

[LiseL]

Agree 100%…. The only way the Senators management/POHO should deviate from a slow steady approach to improve the franchise, is if the team sinks further down the standing in the next two week, and the need for a change cannot be denied, and only an interim head coach appointed for the rest of the season.

doing things in the proper order is the preferred way, IMO. Hire a POHO….done, hire a GM and then a Head coach. The best way to do this is the off season, when the pool is deeper, and preferred candidates become available as their contracts expire.

Focusing on a single frame of a movie, instead of the entire movie, is what leads to unforced errors, and should not be the approach of the POHO.

I wonder if they'll be hiring a new head of scouting or will they be promoting from within? Either way, they'll need to beef up that dept. I think they need to get that sorted out first to be ready for the 2024 draft, especially with the 2 first round picks we will have. Hopefully there are some good ones out there available to hire.

 

[Norris4Norris]

sportsLogiq says we've been the 2nd best team in the Atlantic:

Then why are all the good teams at or above the line, whilst the shitty teams are all below the line?