How much faith do you have in the core 4?

[Bomber0104]

How many of the below playoff series did you realistically expect them to win before the series started.

Washington
Boston
Boston v2
Columbus
Montreal

I'd say 1. Montreal. Columbus was a toss up imo.

The Leafs were lauded as a shoe-in to the playoffs by everyone here.

Anyone who suggested Torts had a defensive play-book ready for the Leafs "skill" he was going to play was summarily laughed out of the forum.

Hardly a "toss up".

Torts absolutely had the play-book.

Schooled Keefe.

You kids will learn one of these years what hockey is all about.

 

[Bomber0104]

Ok so trade someone who is soft for someone who isn't. Who are you trading?

Muzzin, Hyman, Thornton arent guys I'd consider soft either FWIW but I get it.

If the problem with this team is that Mikheyev/Kerfoot/Engvall are soft then of all the teams in the league that seems like an easy problem to solve, no?

I'm not letting Dubas trade anyone.

I let him die on his sword and let the next actual professional take over and fix the team with an accurate view on the game.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

I'm not letting Dubas trade anyone.

I let him die on his sword and let the next actual professional take over and fix the team with an accurate view on the game.

I asked who you would move - not Dubas.

For someone with such a strong view on Dubas' perceived incompetence I would expect some sort of substantive idea of what changes to the roster should be made honestly.

Should be easy if hes as bad as you're making it out to be.

 

[tmlms13]

The Leafs were lauded as a shoe-in to the playoffs by everyone here.

Anyone who suggested Torts had a defensive play-book ready for the Leafs "skill" he was going to play was summarily laughed out of the forum.

Hardly a "toss up".

Torts absolutely had the play-book.

Schooled Keefe.

You kids will learn one of these years what hockey is all about.

Ok so Columbus was the favourite then? Proves my point even more.

This core is 0-1 in series as the favourites. Minus their Captain and Starting Goalie.

 

[Bomber0104]

For someone with such a strong view on Dubas' perceived incompetence I would expect some sort of substantive idea of what changes to the roster should be made honestly.

Should be easy if hes as bad as you're making it out to be.

A reconstruction of the Leafs' salary cap, obviously.

Tough to do when you lock yourself in with NMC's on 4 forwards.

So you want me to conjure up moves with my arms locked behind my back, exactly as Dubas has done to himself?

Good one.

How about this one?

Fire the moron that made it this way in the first place.

I can't make a move right now because the idiot made it this way.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

A reconstruction of our salary cap, obviously.

Tough to do when you lock yourself in with NMC.

So you want me to conjure up moves with my arms locked behind my back, exactly as Dubas has done to himself?

Good one.

How about this one?

Fire the moron that made it this way in the first place.

Reconstruction but not trading Marner like you said before. Can't trade Tavares cause of the NMC. Can trade Matty or Nylander if you want. Im sure they can move those guys if they decide to do that. Do you?

Not conjuring up anything - presumably you think Dubas made mistakes - so reverse them!

 

[Bomber0104]

Reconstruction but not trading Marner like you said before. Can't trade Tavares cause of the NMC. Can trade Matty or Nylander if you want. Im sure they can move those guys if they decide to do that. Do you?

Not conjuring up anything - presumably you think Dubas made mistakes - so reverse them!

You can't.

When you make terrible, terrible, franchise-altering decisions like he did, it's very hard to reverse them.

You're stuck.

Your back is against the wall.

And he's likely going to get fired for it.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Mitch for Doughty and LA retains 3 mil. We save 3 in cap space and get the crazy mofo we need and D anchor in 1. It's a ballsy trade. Mitch would love LA being the lil playboy wuss he is :p

Mitch for Doughty? We'd be the ones retaining 3M.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

You can't.

When you make terrible, terrible, franchise-altering decisions like he did, it's very hard to reverse them.

You're stuck.

Your back is against the wall.

And he's likely going to get fired for it.

I feel like you're genuinely just trolling at this point and not trying to have a conversation.

What is with the dramatics? What player can they not move not named Tavares because of his NMC?

 

[OptimusReim]

Trade Mitch for a Tkachuk and a hard nosed defence man.

 

[Bomber0104]

I feel like you're genuinely just trolling at this point and not trying to have a conversation.

What is with the dramatics? What player can they not move not named Tavares because of his NMC?

Players are movable but why would you trust Kyle "I Can And I Will" Dubas to make that trade?

Why would you entrust the architect of this f*** up to fix his own f*** up?

Really...

Answer that...

Eliminate the moron who made the mess, and then let someone who's actually qualified make the correct decision.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Players are movable but why would you trust Kyle "I Can And I Will" Dubas to make that trade?

Why would you entrust the architect of this f*** up to fix his own f*** up?

Really...

Answer that...

I mean we clearly disagree on dubas being a f*** up. I'm not asking you to be okay with dubas making these trades. If you were in charge of the team as GM or hired someone you liked more than dubas - what moves do you think they should make?

But if hes a f***up you should be able to identify the players that need to be shipped out pretty easily. You don't even need to come up with the returns. Just come up with who in the core need to go.

Somehow the team is flawed and a huge disgrace to you and yet you don't have an opinion on which players need to be removed from the situation?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Trade Mitch for a Tkachuk and a hard nosed defence man.

Sure. And with the same ease, trade Nylander for Kucherov and Hedman.

 

[Bomber0104]

I mean we clearly disagree on dubas being a f*** up. I'm not asking you to be okay with dubas making these trades. If you were in charge of the team as GM or hired someone you liked more than dubas - what moves do you think they should make?

But if hes a f***up you should be able to identify the players that need to be shipped out pretty easily. You don't even need to come up with the returns. Just come up with who in the core need to go.

Somehow the team is flawed and a huge disgrace to you and yet you don't have an opinion on which players need to be removed from the situation?

It depends what kind of message you're trying to send or what you're trying to accomplish as a GM.

If you want a shake-up to improve/re-distribute cap-space and get something usable back - it looks like Nylander's the guy to go.
If you want to a shake-up to send the team a message that losing isn't ok and someone has to pay a price - that's Marner (and you won't get anything back in return)
If you want to fundamentally change the future of the team and roll the dice and make a soft rebuild before the player reaches his NMC - that's Matthews

Or let all their contracts expire and see what happens.

You may lose them all for nothing and this entire period of Leafs history was a laughable waste of time that we made possible by handing the keys to the franchise to some stupid ex-OHL GM and coach.

It's actually incredible how far we've come from being so hopeful to "maybe a 1st round!".

It's f***ing pathetic actually.

 

[OptimusReim]

Sure. And with the same ease, trade Nylander for Kucherov and Hedman.

Well that's why we have wonder boy Dubas to work the phones, hopefully other GM's take it easy on the kid because we know agents have had their way with him.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

It depends what kind of message you're trying to send or what you're trying to accomplish as a GM.

If you want a shake-up to improve/re-distribute cap-space and get something usable back - it looks like Nylander's the guy to go.
If you want to a shake-up to send the team a message that losing isn't ok and someone has to pay a price - that's Marner (and you won't get anything back in return)
If you want to fundamentally change the future of the team and roll the dice and make a soft rebuild before the player reaches his NMC - that's Matthews

Or let all their contracts expire and see what happens.

You may lose them all for nothing and this entire period of Leafs history was a laughable waste of time that we made possible by some stupid ex-OHL GM and coach.

It's actually incredible how far we've come from being so hopeful to "maybe a 1st round".

Finally an opinion on who to move!

Fair enough. I disagree in that I think Nylander has more than earned his deal and I think you would really struggle to replace what he brings for his cap hit.

Wouldn't move Marner but I understand why some would.

Personally think moving AM is insanity because he could easily end up the most talented player to wear the jersey to date.

Letting them go at it till their contracts expire? Sounds like betting on this core over all other options to me.

 

[Bomber0104]

Finally an opinion on who to move!

Fair enough. I disagree in that I think Nylander has more than earned his deal and I think you would really struggle to replace what he brings for his cap hit.

Wouldn't move Marner but I understand why some would.

Personally think moving AM is insanity because he could easily end up the most talented player to wear the jersey to date.

Letting them go at it till their contracts expire? Sounds like betting on this core over all other options to me.

I'd be seeing what offers come along for any of them.

But again, that's not Kyle Dubas' trade to make.

That's the next GM's.

Kyle is almost done in Toronto.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

I'd be seeing what offers come along for any of them.

But again, that's not Kyle Dubas' trade to make.

That's the next GM's.

Kyle is almost done in Toronto.

We'll see!

 

[keonsbitterness]

I've watched them easily make the playoffs 5yrs in a row for just the 2nd time in my life, and they ain't missing anytime soon.

Not always easily. They needed to win game 81 to clinch the second wild card in 2017. We'll never know about 2020 after the season was truncated due to Covid, but it probably would have gone down to the final week/weekend.

Trade Tavares if you can get anything for him. 3 10m+ contracts is crazy, and this guy is heading into his 30s. Contract will just get worse.

Spend his money on a couple good dmen.

Not possible. He's got a NMC and no incentive to waive it.

 

[Seras]

The Leafs were lauded as a shoe-in to the playoffs by everyone here.

Anyone who suggested Torts had a defensive play-book ready for the Leafs "skill" he was going to play was summarily laughed out of the forum.

Hardly a "toss up".

Torts absolutely had the play-book.

Schooled Keefe.

You kids will learn one of these years what hockey is all about.

Weren't they within 1pt of each other in the reg season? I remember it being real close.

I get how some people can get emotional as that's kinda how things go nowadays, but that's also a sure fire way to be miserable.

Loved the kid thing though from someone who cannot take emotions out of the equation

 

[613Leafer]

How many of the below playoff series did you realistically expect them to win before the series started.

Washington
Boston
Boston v2
Columbus
Montreal

I'd say 1. Montreal. Columbus was a toss up imo. We act like we lost to Montreal 5 years in a row. It's really pathetic, we just expect them to win because they were there without even looking at the series they lost. Not every series is a coin flip. This year honestly was the first time since like 2004 where they were the favourites in a series

Playoff upsets are pretty common in the NHL. Which works both ways against the Leafs. Losing to Montreal, in isolation, is not a massive deal. It sucks, but upsets happen fairly regularly.

The problem is that over 5 years, they haven't won any upsets despite three chances to do so, and then they've lost two in which they were the favourites. So for simplicities sake, if you say they had a 40% chance of winning any of the Washington or Boston series, and a 60% chance of winning either of the Columbus or Montreal series, then just going by those odds, the Leafs should have won 2 or maybe 3 of those series (and even if you treat Columbus like a coin flip, you still end up in that range, though slightly more likely to only have 2 series wins).

But they lost all 5, with the last 4 going to a final deciding game. Leafs have had 7 games in which they could have clinched a series win in that time span. Here are the stats for Matthews/Marner in those games:

• Game 7 Boston 2018 - Matthews + Marner combine for 1 assist.
• Game 6 Boston 2019 - Matthews + Marner combine for 1 goal.
• Game 7 Boston 2019 - Matthews + Marner combine for 0 points.
• Game 5 Columbus 2020 - Matthews + Marner combine for 0 points.
• Game 5 Montreal 2021 - Matthews + Marner combine for 2 assists.
• Game 6 Montreal 2021 - Matthews + Marner combine for 0 points.
• Game 7 Montreal 2021 - Matthews + Marner combine for 1 assist.

So between the two of them, that's 1 goal, 4 assists (5 points) in 14 games between them, which the Leafs have gone 0-7 in. Our stars folding when it matters most is problematic, especially given that Matthews contract arguably values him as the best player in the league (given that his caphit is pretty close to McDavid's, but only on a 5 year deal) and Marner's values him as probably the 3rd best player in the league (based on caphit, term, and the fact that it was an RFA contract).

 

[Aashir]

How many of the below playoff series did you realistically expect them to win before the series started.

Washington
Boston
Boston v2
Columbus
Montreal

I'd say 1. Montreal. Columbus was a toss up imo. We act like we lost to Montreal 5 years in a row. It's really pathetic, we just expect them to win because they were there without even looking at the series they lost. Not every series is a coin flip. This year honestly was the first time since like 2004 where they were the favourites in a series

We were only favourites in 2 series, Columbus and Montreal. But come on, is it illegal for a team to beat another that finished ahead of them. Montreal beat Toronto, Vancouver beat St. Louis, Bluejackets beat Tampa and Hurricanes beat Washington. It’s not unreasonable to say that they should’ve won some of those series

Washington is the only pass, bunch of 19-20 year olds with a few older guys in their mid-late 20s who probably weren’t expected to be there

Boston1: Game 7, Kapanen destroys Marchand, confiscates Rasks jock making it 4-3 going into the 3rd period. Team and andersen follow up with a 3 goal collapse to lose it

Boston2: redemption year. take a 3-2 series lead. Come out to game 6 and play 45 shit minutes going down 3-1 precede to make it 3-2 with 15 minutes left. Can’t finish the job. Go to game 7 and get completely manhandled and lose again

Columbus: Go into the series with the swagger of a cup champion when in reality we were a fringe playoff team, get shutout 2 of the 5 games, choke and comeback from a 3 goal lead/deficit. Game 5, come out and play and don’t even score a damn goal. Lose again again

Montreal: This time we all thought it was different. Rocket winner Matthews, top 5 scorer Marner, nylander and Tavares being themselves, best d core in 20 years, Campbell gives solid goaltending, depth is ok during season. Playoffs come, oof Tavares goes down with a brutal injury. Drop game 1. Take 3-1 lead right after. Don’t get a DAMN LEAD AFTER THAT. Game 4 was the least time we had a lead. Choke a 3-0 and 2-0 with a dominant ot due to a 2-0 and a weird deflection. Game 7 play shit score a pity goal. Nuff said. Lose again again again

this team can’t win. We have been given a golden opportunity to win every series and we choke. The saying pressure builds diamonds isn’t found on this team. Game 7, The goalie always chokes and shits the bed with a softy guaranteed, the Pk becomes as good as a handicapped tree branch, the pp somehow becomes more inept than usual, the big 4 don’t show up and are thinking about golfing weather and who’s hitting the ball the furthest and depth disappears instantly.

I’m fully expecting next year it’s us vs Florida and one team takes a 3-0 lead. If it’s us we lose the next 4 straight, if it’s them we win 3 and lose yet another game 7. When these happen, the leafs will reach peak chokeness as Florida hasn’t won a round since 1996

 

[Racer88]

Playoff upsets are pretty common in the NHL. Which works both ways against the Leafs. Losing to Montreal, in isolation, is not a massive deal. It sucks, but upsets happen fairly regularly.

The problem is that over 5 years, they haven't won any upsets despite three chances to do so, and then they've lost two in which they were the favourites. So for simplicities sake, if you say they had a 40% chance of winning any of the Washington or Boston series, and a 60% chance of winning either of the Columbus or Montreal series, then just going by those odds, the Leafs should have won 2 or maybe 3 of those series (and even if you treat Columbus like a coin flip, you still end up in that range, though slightly more likely to only have 2 series wins).

But they lost all 5, with the last 4 going to a final deciding game. Leafs have had 7 games in which they could have clinched a series win in that time span. Here are the stats for Matthews/Marner in those games:

• Game 7 Boston 2018 - Matthews + Marner combine for 1 assist.
• Game 6 Boston 2019 - Matthews + Marner combine for 1 goal.
• Game 7 Boston 2019 - Matthews + Marner combine for 0 points.
• Game 5 Columbus 2020 - Matthews + Marner combine for 0 points.
• Game 5 Montreal 2021 - Matthews + Marner combine for 2 assists.
• Game 6 Montreal 2021 - Matthews + Marner combine for 0 points.
• Game 7 Montreal 2021 - Matthews + Marner combine for 1 assist.

So between the two of them, that's 1 goal, 4 assists (5 points) in 14 games between them, which the Leafs have gone 0-7 in. Our stars folding when it matters most is problematic, especially given that Matthews contract arguably values him as the best player in the league (given that his caphit is pretty close to McDavid's, but only on a 5 year deal) and Marner's values him as probably the 3rd best player in the league (based on caphit, term, and the fact that it was an RFA contract).

Wow, these real numbers show how really crappy Matthews and Marner are when the pressure is on yet some posters use imaginary fancy stats to pretend that they are awesome just unlucky.
What a joke

 

[deprw]

I'd be seeing what offers come along for any of them.

But again, that's not Kyle Dubas' trade to make.

That's the next GM's.

Kyle is almost done in Toronto.

Who would you hire? Is there someone who has magic fingers towards building winning organizations there free waiting for call from Larry Tannenbaum and man you could lure out his cabin like Colonel Trautman lured John Rambo?

We have gone that route with recent loser Brian Burke, who arguably made way worse mistakes than Dubas to this date. Oilers gave keys to Peter Chiarelli that gutted all of their depth and traded away value piece of a roster in Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson. We had Lou, who traded 2nd rounders for 4th line centers and couldn't handle the cap at all and still can't in Islanders. Some dearly miss Lou, but I don't know if I'd give keys to guy who is almost 80 years old and should handle short term and long term success of organization.

Either you pick some new comer or recent loser. Which one you pick?

You say that Marner has no value. I say he has. Team that has internal cap his cost of 7mil / year for rest of his contract should be pretty nice. If you can't spend 80 million for salaries that kind of contract is pretty nice. I think front loading that contract without any discount from Mitch was stupid, but at least it adds lots of value to it.

I don't think we can find common ground on this issue, but at least I would like to get answer if you want rookie GM again or recent loser again?

 

[deprw]

Wow, these real numbers show how really crappy Matthews and Marner are when the pressure is on yet some posters use imaginary fancy stats to pretend that they are awesome just unlucky.
What a joke

It doesn't have to be either way, it can be both. Problems handling pressure and bad luck for not getting any lucky bounces. Like in 4th final this year Kucherov had 1+2 for posts. Statistically these sample sizes of few playoff series are pretty small. I'm not saying you shouldn't act on them, but those stats always give you something to think about. At least your not acting solely on your gut feeling that might be pretty biased. I think we all have seen numbers that we win our corsi and fenwick against Columbus and Montreal, those are numbers that should result more goals and better scoring chances. If so, should you give up on those. Give puck to your opponent and surrenders some of those scoring chances? Would that give better results.

I work in profession where I'm the one that tries research things with experts and those biases can be pretty off and with statistics and analytics you can get outcomes and results, that reveal and demolish those biases. After few times those experts crave on research that show their biases and then they can make calculated decisions. You can still go with your gut feeling, but at least your owning the decision.