How much faith do you have in the core 4?

[Bomber0104]

Its extremely random. Even if the core was as flawed as you believe it to be it would be incredibly random to lose 5 straight first round series. That's the way math works. A 2% chance of something means it should happen 2/100 times. Which means it happens.

It's so random that a team just went back-to-back?

It's so random that a team like the Blackhawks could win multiple Cups with the same core?

It's so random that a team like the Pens could win multiple Cups with the same core?

Again, no clue.

Some teams are precisely successful, and some teams like the Leafs are precisely losers.

That isn't random.

Dubas built the best d core in the past 20 years this franchise has had 1 through 6. They got 1 goal from Matthew's and marner and Tavares was hurt while Price went vintage. A lot of things had to go wrong but they win that series more often than not if they replay it. It's fine. I'd rather take my chances with elite talent this team hasnt had in 20 years than trade it away.

Dubas built a team that just flaked out for the third time in a row.

Get out here.

Stop defending losing.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Exactly. This "random" nonsense is one of the more baffling narratives around here lately.

I swear nobody has taken a statistics course in their life on this forum sometimes. Even flawed teams win rounds every once and a while, flawed cores! MTL just won 3 rounds. Dallas won 3 rounds last year. That only supports that it's about goaltending and randomness.

Just because something is unlikely to happen - or seems unlikely - doesnt mean it isn't driven primarily by variance.

Maybe it's the poker player in me. I don't know. But playing enough poker over my life pushes me to think of how much variance impact results.

 

[Bomber0104]

I swear nobody has taken a statistics course in their life on this forum sometimes. Even flawed teams win rounds every once and a while, flawed cores! MTL just won 3 rounds. Dallas won 3 rounds last year. That only supports that it's about goaltending and randomness.

Just because something is unlikely to happen - or seems unlikely - doesnt mean it isn't driven primarily by variance.

Maybe it's the poker player in me. I don't know. But playing enough poker over my life pushes me to think of how much variance impact results.

How many letters do you have after your name?

Wanna compare?

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

It's so random that a team just went back-to-back?

It's so random that a team like the Blackhawks could win multiple Cups with the same core?

It's so random that a team like the Pens could win multiple Cups with the same core?

Again, no clue.

Some teams are precisely successful, and some teams like the Leafs are precisely losers.

That isn't random.



Dubas built a team that just flaked out for the third time in a row.

Get out here.

Stop defending losing.

I'm not saying it's entirely random. You obviously need to be very good. That's why these Cinderella MTL DAL type teams didn't win - the luck and goaltending bender they were on ran out.

What I'm saying is the margins in any 7 game series are razor thin. So if they get a bounce and end up in the conf finals were not talking about a flawed core. If that's the case - giant grandstanding statements about the team are probably misguided.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

How many letters do you have after your name?

Wanna compare?

I'm a CPA actually but besides the point really LOL any high school statistics course will teach you things that are low probability of happening still can happen!

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm not saying it's entirely random. You obviously need to be very good. That's why these Cinderella MTL DAL type teams didn't win - the luck and goaltending bender they were on ran out.

And these types of "lucky" teams still happen to beat the Leafs, rather easily.

Columbus/Montreal...

They were both decisive series wins.

What I'm saying is the margins in any 7 game series are razor thin. So if they get a bounce and end up in the conf finals were not talking about a flawed core. If that's the case - giant grandstanding statements about the team are probably misguided.

Columbus and Montreal both won decisively.

Both series.

I don't know what you were watching but the team folded in Game 7 to Columbus completely, and in Game 6/7 to Montreal.

Luck/margins/chance/probability/bounces or whatever other 'random' catchphrases you have for it had absolutely nothing to do with it.

The Leafs rolled over.

That's what stats don't account for.

Quit.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm a CPA actually but besides the point really LOL any high school statistics course will teach you things that are low probability of happening still can happen!

Apparently a Brock University sports degree doesn't teach you simple stats either.

Leave that to the big boy subject that belays it...

Economics.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

And these types of "lucky" teams still happen to beat the Leafs, rather easily.

Columbus/Montreal...

They were both decisive series wins.



Columbus and Montreal both won decisively.

Both series.

I don't know what you were watching but the team folded in Game 7 to Columbus completely, and in Game 6/7 to Montreal.

Luck/margins/chance/probability/bounces or whatever other 'random' catchphrases you have for it had absolutely nothing to do with it.

The Leafs rolled over.

That's what stats don't account for.

Quit.

Yeah MTL really won decisively not outscoring toronto and relying on 3 one goal games (g1, 5, 6) including two games that went to OT - one of those games having Mikheyev miss an empty net - the other having the leafs dominating OT in shots 12-2 before Kotkaniemi shoots from just inside the point going off a defenseman's foot and in the net.

Game of inches. Is what it is - I'm betting on talent to eventually break through.

 

[zeke]

He said postseason hockey - not regular season.

He sure did.

We should trade our roster for the Habs'.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Apparently a Brock University sports degree doesn't teach you simple stats either.

Look I get it - I'm not "okay" with losing either. But I try to seperate what is actually objectively going to make the team better and what isn't - trading Marner doesn't make them better IMO. It's fine if we disagree.

 

[IPS]

He sure did.

We should trade our roster for the Habs'.

What does referencing an extreme example like that do to support your opinion?

 

[Bomber0104]

Look I get it - I'm not "okay" with losing either. But I try to seperate what is actually objectively going to make the team better and what isn't - trading Marner doesn't make them better IMO. It's fine if we disagree.

I'm not in favor of a Marner trade.

Never mentioned that.

I'm in favor of a management/coaching shuffle after even more failure than we've already witnessed.

 

[IPS]

And these types of "lucky" teams still happen to beat the Leafs, rather easily.

Columbus/Montreal...

They were both decisive series wins.



Columbus and Montreal both won decisively.

Both series.

I don't know what you were watching but the team folded in Game 7 to Columbus completely, and in Game 6/7 to Montreal.

Luck/margins/chance/probability/bounces or whatever other 'random' catchphrases you have for it had absolutely nothing to do with it.

The Leafs rolled over.

That's what stats don't account for.

Quit.

Game 5* against Columbus but yes. One of the most disturbing trends of this core is how they play their worst game of the series in game 7's. There's no luck in this - it's something that's rotten with the team's mentality.

 

[zeke]

What does referencing an extreme example like that do to support your opinion?

Nothing extreme about it.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

I'm not in favor of a Marner trade.

Never mentioned that.

I'm in favor of a management/coaching shuffle after even more failure than we've already witnessed.

So who of the four are you trading? None of them? Change GMs so they can yell at the players/talk about them differently in the media?

Wasn't a fan of how Keefe handled this series and the PP this year. Willing to give him another shot but I'm not in this thread defending Keefe so...

 

[EXTRAS]

Trade Tavares if you can get anything for him. 3 10m+ contracts is crazy, and this guy is heading into his 30s. Contract will just get worse.

Spend his money on a couple good dmen.

 

[Bomber0104]

So who of the four are you trading? None of them? Change GMs so they can yell at the players/talk about them differently in the media?

Wasn't a fan of how Keefe handled this series and the PP this year. Willing to give him another shot but I'm not in this thread defending Keefe so...

Get rid of the GM that caused this fiscal nightmare we're facing year-after-year...
Get rid of the GM that has a very weird, myopic, ignorant, blogger-centric view of what the game is...
Get rid of the GM that was a rookie when he was hired, has no experience of success in the NHL, and we'll have the faintest memory of once he's gone...

And then hopefully let a real professional make a better appraisal and decision on what needs to be done next with the roster.

That's my idea personally.

That also means Keefe and Shanahan are gone too, FYI.

I know people thought Keefe was some sort of Wonder Boy like Dubas, but I think reality has set in there too.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Get rid of the GM that caused this fiscal nightmare we're facing year-after-year...

Get rid of the GM that has a very weird, narrow, blogger-centric view of what the game is...

Get rid of the GM that was a rookie when he was hired, has no experience of success in, and we'll have the faintest memory of him once he's gone...

And then hopefully let a real professional make a better appraisal and decision on what needs to be done next.

That's my idea personally.

That also means Keefe and Shanahan are gone too.

Fiscal situation being what it is - they bet on this and caused it. Pandemic aside they could move someone to make room but even you dont think they should move Marner so....?

The blogger centric viewed GM signed vets like Simmonds, traded for traditional grit-focused players like Foligno. Signed Bogosion. All were perceived anti analytics/blogger focused the way you're phrasing it.

The rookie thing is a weird thing to complain about IMO because everyone who has ever been a GM is a rookie at some point and only hiring non-rookies seems like limiting talent pool for executives.

I think Dubas overpaid Marner. I also don't think he should trade Marner. I think he fixed the D (best theyve had in 20 years) and went too far on grit actually rather than speed and skill and youth. My hope is they correct back and get the right mix.

These are... not major items honestly all things considered personally.

 

[Bomber0104]

Fiscal situation being what it is - they bet on this and caused it. Pandemic aside they could move someone to make room but even you dont think they should move Marner so....?

The blogger centric viewed GM signed vets like Simmonds, traded for traditional grit-focused players like Foligno. Signed Bogosion. All were perceived anti analytics/blogger focused the way you're phrasing it.

The rookie thing is a weird thing to complain about IMO because everyone who has ever been a GM is a rookie at some point and only hiring non-rookies seems like limiting talent pool for executives.

I think Dubas overpaid Marner. I also don't think he should trade Marner. I think he fixed the D (best theyve had in 20 years) and went too far on grit actually rather than speed and skill and youth. My hope is they correct back and get the right mix.

These are... not major items honestly all things considered personally.

So to wrap up, you see nothing wrong with the team.



"It is what it is"

C'est la vie!

Thank god we have fans in Leafs Nation that aren't as laissez-faire toward winning and losing as you are.

Leafs Nation expects way better than this garbage.

I'm happy you're happy with it though, truly!

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

So to wrap up, you see nothing wrong with the team.



"It is what it is"

C'est la vie!

Thank god we have fans in Leafs Nation that aren't as laissez-faire toward winning and losing as you are.

Leafs Nation expects way better than this garbage.

No I mean I think they should make the team better and try to add forwards. They're in trouble right not because Mark Hunter left them with zero 2nd-7th round picks from his tenure that are ready to come in and make an impact on the cheap.

It's not that I think theres nothing wrong with the team. They have holes and they need to address them in their depth scoring.

You haven't offered any personel changes. What D man in the top 4 sucks that you want to trade? What forward in the core? You said you wouldn't trade Marner. So is it Nylander? He was their best player in round one was he not?

You're saying this team is extremely flawed and yet you have no personnel changes you've offered up. Just called them losers and bashed Dubas/Keefe.

 

[OptimusReim]

This idea that we keep losing because of bad luck (or puck luck it's also been called) is exactly why we will continue to lose.

The entire philosophy of the team is wrong, Dubas and Shanahan seem to think that a team can out skill you can,dangle your way to a cup, when the last 5 years has shown we need more toughness, intangibles and heart, but those are hard to compute on an excel sheet.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

This idea that we keep losing because of bad luck (or puck luck it's also been called) is exactly why we will continue to lose.

The entire philosophy of the team is wrong, Dubas and Shanahan seem to think that a team can out skill you can,dangle your way to a cup, when the last 5 years has shown we need more toughness, intangibles and heart, but those are hard to compute on an excel sheet.

They went after grit and not skill this year and lost.

They signed Simmonds Bogosion and traded for Foligno instead of Hall/other offensively inclined player.

The moves they made were literally anti-analtyic focused, intangibles/grit guys.

 

[Bomber0104]

They went after grit and not skill this year and lost.

They signed Simmonds Bogosion and traded for Foligno instead of Hall/other offensively inclined player.

The moves they made were literally anti-analtyic focused, intangibles/grit guys.

4th liner, 3rd pairing, 2nd/3rd line rover...

That's literally the sprinkling on the team.

Those players occupy very insignificant minutes.

The team is still soft, at it's core.

There's no denying it.

You will try though, I'm sure.

As a self-proclaimed CPA, I expect better than this sort of weak reasoning.

 

[tmlms13]

How many of the below playoff series did you realistically expect them to win before the series started.

Washington
Boston
Boston v2
Columbus
Montreal

I'd say 1. Montreal. Columbus was a toss up imo. We act like we lost to Montreal 5 years in a row. It's really pathetic, we just expect them to win because they were there without even looking at the series they lost. Not every series is a coin flip. This year honestly was the first time since like 2004 where they were the favourites in a series

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

4th liner, 3rd pairing, rover...

That's sprinkling on the team.

The team is still soft, at it's core.

There's no denying it.

Ok so trade someone who is soft for someone who isn't. Who are you trading?

Muzzin, Hyman, Thornton arent guys I'd consider soft either FWIW but I get it.

If the problem with this team is that Mikheyev/Kerfoot/Engvall are soft then of all the teams in the league that seems like an easy problem to solve, no?